What would top 12 be in Sochi ladies and men if everyone is clean

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kuzytalent, Jul 27, 2013.

  1. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    If the expected people qualify and everyone is clean what would be the top 12 in both womens and mens at the Olympics in your opinion. This is a tough one as there are many talented skaters in both. Here would be my guesses though in an everyone goes clean scenario:

    Men:

    1. Chan
    2. Hanyu
    3. Takahashi
    4. Fernandez
    5. Ten
    6. Plushenko
    7. Kozuka
    8. Reynolds
    9. Aaron
    10. Lysacek
    11. Amodio
    12. Joubert


    Ladies:

    1. Kim
    2. Kostner
    3. Asada
    4. Gold
    5. Wagner
    6. Suzuki
    7. Sotnikova
    8. Osmond
    9. Murakami
    10. Tuktamysheva
    11. Li
    12. Korpi or 3rd U.S lady
     
  2. TheIronLady

    TheIronLady New Member

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    If Asada skated clean she would win.


    Ladies:

    1. Asada
    2. Kim
    3. Kostner
    4. Gold
    5. Korpi
    6. Wagner
    7. Murakami
    8. Suzuki
    9. Sotnikova
    10. Tuktamysheva
    11. Osmond
    12. Li

    I worry that Wagner and Suzuki might be lower--perhaps 9th and 10th-- if all others are clean, but I prefer to think their beautiful qualities would be rewarded. I need to reassess their TES potential to make a definitive forecast.
     
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  3. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    I doubt that. Both her GOE and PCS would be significantly lower than Kim and Kostner if they skated cleanly as well.

    Korpi 4th? Wow that seems high but who knows, we never see her skate cleanly.
     
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  4. TheIronLady

    TheIronLady New Member

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    I know. If we saw Korpi skate cleanly I think judges could give her almost outrageous PCS and GOE. I would love for her to skate cleanly, but I am not planning for that to happen.

    The GOE that Kim gets could be insurmountable, but if Asada skated the content she did at Four Continents with two clean programs (okay the flutz is irreversible) I think that she would edge out Kim. Judges would be moved by her superior spins and line. Would they not?
     
  5. Rock2

    Rock2 Well-Known Member

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    I have nothing against this thread. Interesting discussion but it's making my head hurt. I'll pass
     
  6. torren

    torren New Member

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    mao had a clean short program and scored 74. when she landed 3A without any flow, she got 1.57 GOE on 3a
    what was kim's score when kim cleaned sp in last season? she is not the strongest skater in SP anymore when all go clean
     
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  7. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    Men:

    1. Chan
    2. Abbott
    3. Hanyu
    4. Takahashi
    5. Kozuka
    6. Fernandez
    7. Ten
    8. Plushenko
    9. Brezina
    10. Farris
    11. Reynolds
    12. Joubert

    Ladies:

    1. Kostner
    2. Kim
    3. Asada
    4. Sotnikova
    5. Wagner
    6. Tuktamysheva
    7. Suzuki
    8. Murakami
    9. Gold
    10. Osmond
    11. Li
    12. Korpi

    Pairs:

    1. Volosozhar/Trankov
    2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
    3. Duhamel/Radford
    4. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch
    5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
    6. Pang/Tong
    7. Bazarova/Larionov
    8. Berton/Hotarek
    9. Denney/Coughlin
    10. James/Cipres

    Dance:

    1. Davis/White or Virtue/Moir
    2. Davis/White or Virtue/Moir
    3. Bobrova/Soloviev
    4. Pechalat/Bourzat
    5. Weaver/Poje
    6. Cappellini/Lanotte
    7. Ilinykh/Katsalapov
    8. Chock/Bates
    9. Shibutani/Shibutani
    10. Riazanova/Tkachenko
     
  8. essence_of_soy

    essence_of_soy Well-Known Member

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    A clean event would be great.

    In the past Olympic figure skating has gone so many ways, from Calgary when the top athletes skated well to Albertville when everyone made mistakes.
     
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  9. HVS

    HVS Active Member

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    Last season she is a top skater who has almost 2 season absence, out of Top 12 on Worlds ranking due to not competed, Vancouver was the story about 3 years ago, skate soon in the group 3 at Worlds, judge just didn't know whether she regain her top form or not

    But now, She is again reigning World & Olympic Champion who is going to defend her Olympic title, take all the reputation back, back in her top form

    You really think she will not be scored highest even if she clean???

    Mao's SP with all 4 triples scored 74 in Japan, fine, Yuna's record was over 78, so I would way she at least will scored around 75 in next season if she clean :cool:
     
  10. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    Mao has done a SP with 4 triples?

    Are you referring to 4CC's when she did 3A, 3F+2Lo and 3Lo?

    I'm not sure what a 4-triple SP would be for her. 3A, 3F+3Lo and 3Lz?

    Hard to speculate without knowing what their planned jump layout is, but if Mao is planning a 4-triple SP and a 8-triple FS and skates clean, I don't think even a clean Yu-Na can beat that TES. Big if though.

    Based on last season's programs:

    1. Kim
    2. Asada
    3. Kostner

    If everyone skates marginally clean in Sochi, it will be an amazing event!
     
  11. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I think Mao is overreaching. She has to many problems rotating her jumps as it is.
     
  12. torren

    torren New Member

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    sorry kim also skated clean sp in NRW. she scored 72. and if she did not get edge call on triple flip in world championship, her score still would be 71~72. kim got the highest GOE on only 3-3, she got lower goe than carolina on all elements. and what i mean in "she is not the strongest skater in SP anymore when all go clean" is, let's see some examples. In WTT, adelina get < on 3t in sp and she scored 67 and got higher goe on all components than kim except for underrotated 3-3. suzuki had a clean sp without 3-3, she got 66. In 2012 nhk, Mao got 67 without 3-3, 3A. In 2012 GPF, Wagner got 66 without 3-3.
    compare point gap.. which elements kim is overwhelming?

    Mao had not 4 triples in SP last season, Mao did 3A, 3F-2L, 3L
    Mao said she will not change jump components in next season
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2013
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Mao knows the only way she would have a chance to beat a clean Kim or a clean Kostner is to do the kind of jump layout she is attempting. Hence why she keeps attempting it, despite that it is realistically impossible.
     
  14. HVS

    HVS Active Member

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    Oh sorry, my bad, you are right :D

    Again, even you don't believe it, Yuna in next season not the same with Yuna in last season ;)

    You better should compare her now with the Yuna in the season when she was 2009 World Champ went to 2010 Olympic.
     
  15. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    a clean event would be a miracle from baby Jesus!

    What thread is next?
    Who will be top 12 finishers if all skaters win lotto a month before Sochi?
    Who will be top 12 finishers if all skaters see pigs flying the night before the LP?
    Who will be top 12 finishers if all skaters skate naked?
    Who will be top 12 finishers if all skaters are required to skate to lady gaga in the SP?
    Who will be top 12 finishers if all skaters are required to skate an old Kwan program?
     
  16. Robeye

    Robeye Curiously curious

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    :rofl:
     
  17. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Active Member

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    What's supposedly so laughable about this thread? Yes, it's unrealistic, but it's the off-season, and at least it's about the sport and not something completly different like the 27th poll about which hair is the fluffiest or whatever.

    If someone doesn't like this theoretical "what if's?", fine, but I don't see why this thread is any problem.

    And I guess my picks are a little out of line - in the everyone is clean senario, I'd go with Asada and come next season maybe Fernandez over Chan :D
     
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  18. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Is there anyone who thinks any of the following though:

    -in an all clean competition the ladies podium wont be Kim, Asada, and Kostner in some order.

    -the mens event wont have Chan as the winner in an all clean scenario (I fully expect him to not win in Sochi, but I also fully expect him not to skate cleanly in Sochi).

    -the pairs event wont have Volosozhar & Trankov the winner in an all clean scenario (I doubt they even need to be that close to clean, although I hope they are anyway).


    The womens is the only one that is that intersting to discuss. After the big 3 the next 8-10 placements could possibly go so many different ways in the almost impossible scenario everyone skated cleanly. I am sure there are a wide variety of opinions and guesses to how the judges would score a clean Wagner, clean Gold, clean Sotnikova, clean Suzuki, against one another, and also where ones like Osmond, Li, any other U.S or Russian ladies, Korpi, might place. Amongst the big 3 it is hard to see Kostner beating Kim if both skate cleanly, as while she can match or come close to matching Kim in almost all areas there really isnt anything she would get ahead in likely, but Asada is the wildcard. If she skated her insane jump layout totally cleanly (which will never happen but this is a hypothetical only) would her base value edge push her over Kim and Kostner despite much lower GOE on the jumps atleast and PCS, or would the GOE and PCS of the other two still keep them ahead.

    The mens it seems pretty much a certainty if everyone skated cleanly Chan would be 1st, Kozuka 2nd, and Takahashi 3rd. So an all clean discussion is not very interesting. The interesting thing is only since none of those three are consistent which leaves the door open for a consistent skater like Fernandez or Aaron to capatilize on mistakes, and for a whole host of possible winners and medalists.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2013
  19. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    It isn't that there are just a whole bunch of polls on "what if's," it's that they the overwhelming majority have been started by one person who, though he uses different aliases, has a personality and a writing style that come through every single time, no matter how much he tries to hide them.

    :yawn:
     
  20. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    There was a very long discussion regarding this over at GSU. Numbers were crunched and, from all indications, if Mao was able to successfully execute her planned layout (3A in the SP; 3-3, 2-3 and 3A in the FS) then her TES would be enough to put her on top of both Yu-Na and Carolina. If Mao's jumps were clean and her other elements were maxed out (she's the only one of the Big 3 who consistently earns level 4s for both her spins and steps) she'd definitely have the highest TES. Whereas Carolina and Yu-Na earn lots of +2s and +3s, I'd think Mao would have many +1s and +2s; still, that slight boost to her already high TES would keep her in front of the other two. If she skated cleanly her PCS would be pretty high, especially executing that kind of content. I think she'd be very close to the PCS the other two earn, if not more (you know stuff is always inflated at the Olympics).

    So if all were clean, I'd put Mao first simply b/c the other two wouldn't be able to catch her from a technical standpoint. As for silver and bronze, I think that would be a little closer b/w Yu-Na and Carolina. The GOE Carolina earns on her jumps is comparable to what Yu-Na earns. A clean Carolina is equal to if not greater than Yu-Na when it comes to PCS. I think their TES would be close but Yu-Na's harder content would give her the edge there. On PCS...I don't know. Carolina is magical when she skates cleanly and for her to have clean performances at the Olympics, her scores would sky rocket. Still, I think Yu-Na's harder SP content and extra lutz in the FS would give her the edge over Carolina in TES and she'd take silver. Carolina would be a few points behind for bronze.

    Yu-Na has pretty much set her score ceiling b/c she's managed to skate perfectly in both program twice now. I'd say given her 228.56 Vancouver total and this year's 218.31, with the new rules I'd say Yu-Na's max score is probably around 223.

    No one has seen Mao or Carolina skate perfect programs back-to-back so we don't really know what their score ceiling is. It's highly improbable that something like this will ever happen but it's not impossible. History tells us Yu-Na has a much greater shot at skating cleanly or mostly clean...history also tells us that Carolina and Mao are bound to make a few mistakes which is why Yu-Na is the favorite for gold and silver will go to whoever skates the cleanest out of Mao and Carolina.
     
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  21. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Active Member

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    Oh, I'm sorry, I didn't pay any attention to something like that. I still lik ethis thread though...

    Did you mean Hanyu?
    Anyway, I'm not really agreeing with this top 3. Chan was very far ahead of the field until this season, but others have really closed the gap and the jugdes are very ready to reward them. Clean Chan might still be unbeatable next season, but I wouldn't bet on it.
    It's tough to say but I'm not sure Hanyu would beat Takahashi. It's Hanyus GOE vs. Takahashis PCS. And Fernandez might beat them both on TES (well, not Hanyu in the SP). The 'everyone clean' event doesn't look like a certainty to me at all.
     
  22. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    No one is beating Chan if he's clean but since he doesn't think he needs a real coach i don't see that happening especially with his jumps.
     
  23. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    Patrick has no coach??? :confused: Didn't learn in last season?
     
  24. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Well he still has that modern dance teacher as his main coach but haven't heard about him finally getting someone to work on his jumps. He probably thinks he can correct his problems all by himself. That is a recipe for disaster.
     
  25. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    I know about his modern dance teacher...I thought he already has a real coach to work on is jumps..
     
  26. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Maybe he does. After last season it was obvious that Kathy Johnson has no clue about jumps.
     
  27. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Yes I meant Hanyu.

    The others have closed the gap on Chan enough that with his near certainty to make alot of mistakes he is in big trouble next season. I actually am picking him to finish 3rd or 4th at the Olympics. However this thread seems to be about all skaters going clean, and in that case Chan would still be certain to win. A clean Chan can score almost 100 in the short and about 190 probably in the long. Nobody can beat that.

    As Hanyu vs Takahashi, Takahashi's biggest problem is his base value is typically lower than people like Chan, Hanyu, and Fernandez too. He often doesnt have the smartest jump layouts or even reach level 4s in some of the other elements. That combined with the huge GOE of Hanyu means he would be so far behind in TES if both go clean he wouldnt make that up even with PCS. Just look at the events they were in together the last 2 years. All except the GP final indicate a clean Hanyu coming out ahead. 2012 Worlds LP Hanyu beating a clean Takahashi in the LP even with a fall. 2012/2013 Nationals and NHK scoring.

    As for Fernandez his biggest problem would be the short program. Even a clean short by him would probably be crushed by Chan or Hanyu especialy at their best. Just look at NHK where he skated cleanly with the exact same jumps as Hanyu and ended up about 9 points back, about 6 on GOE alone, and another 3 on PCS. Takahashi had a major error and still beat him in the SP. In the LP he might be competitive with some of the aforementioned if they all skated cleanly, but probably not in the short program.
     
  28. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Can we make that happen please? I know people are all up in arms when skate to Michelle music but I am not one of them. It would be like a tribute if they all had to do the same choreography.
     
  29. torren

    torren New Member

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    Mao also has had not many mostly clean or clean programs, But not as much as Carolina. not absolutely equal with Carolina
    I can not even remember when Carolina had clean lp in her whole career
    I agree that Mao has lower chance to have clean programs than kim, but she has higher chance to have clean programs or mostly clean than Carolina
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2013
  30. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    1. There are two programs. A long program and a short program. What happens in the short program wont help skaters deal with Kim's 150 point long program. If you think others can reach that fine, then discuss it, but just focusing on the short program doesnt get you anywhere.

    2. Are you suggesting now skaters like Suzuki and Sotnikova can beat a clean Kim. Are you really that delusional. I thought thinking Miki Ando could was already bad enough.