What would top 10 at 2006 Olympics ladies event been if all had been there and clean

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by gordanlevitt, Apr 25, 2013.

  1. gordanlevitt

    gordanlevitt New Member

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    Had everyone been at the 2006 Olympics and skated their best it could have been one of the most spectacular and competitive events ever. Kim, Kwan, Slutskaya, Asada, Ando, Kostner, Rochette, Suguri, Arakawa, Cohen, and Meissner. However it fizzled into an utterly forgettable event with 5 triple Shizuka crusing to an easy win. Had everyone been there and skated their best it is amazing to think atleast 1 of the stated skaters would have been right out of the top 10. What would the results have been had everyone skated their best, maybe clean not being the right word, but the best they were capable of at the time, with the content they realistically were wanting to do. I think it would have gone:

    Gold- Arakawa- had she done the 7 triples and 2 triple-triples she was practicing she probably would have posted a 140 LP which would be too much for the others.

    Silver- Slutskaya- had she done her 2005 Worlds or 2005 Cup of Russia skate with no discounted triples probably would have scored about a 135 LP, good for 2nd place.

    Bronze- Asada- her GP final LP would probably score atleast 130 given the high Olympic scoring, and with a triple-
    triple in the SP around 65 there.

    4th- Kim- not sure where she would have figured in but she was still developing.

    5th- Cohen- maybe this is low but technically she is not as strong as many others even if she skates her best, even if they also do. She still would have won over the event as skated if she had skated cleanly with 7 triples.

    6th- Kwan- I am assuming she would have made COP improvements. Since if she didnt she would be even lower than this if everyone else also skated their best.

    7th- Meissner- I am assuming she did her Worlds LP, which might have had her higher in the LP, but her SP would hold her down. I also dont think even her Worlds LP would have been scored as highly as it was there.

    8th- Kostner

    9th- Rochette

    10th- Ando

    11th- Suguri- Yet she came 4th not even skating her best, which shows what a bust the event was.
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    1st Slutskaya: No way the judges would deny a clean and best form Slutskaya this year, no matter what Shizuka did.
    2nd Arakawa
    3rd Cohen: No way the judges leave a clean Sasha off the podium this year.
    4th Asada: or maybe switch her and Shizuka's positions, but if Shizuka's best means atleast 1 triple-triple in the LP she beats a perfect Mao this year even with 3axel and 3-3s. The judges would put one 2nd and the other 4th either way.
    5th Kwan
    6th Kim: wait your turn, she might have even been lower than this.
    7th Ando
    8th Kostner
    9th Rochette
    10th Meissner
     
  3. misskarne

    misskarne #408

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    Hate to burst your hypothetical bubble, but the maximum is three ladies from any one country.

    You can't have four Japanese ladies.
     
  4. kapriza

    kapriza Member

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    if we had ham we could make a ham and cheese sandwich if we had cheese
     
  5. gingercrush

    gingercrush New Member

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    These hypotheticals are always strange to me. Michelle Kwan only skated one COP/IJS program. Kim had never skated at the senior level. Mao Asada won the GPF but Slutskaya was flawed there. Kim won over Mao Asada at Junior Worlds but that competition Asada was doing different elements to what she had all season. Arakawa was purported to be training 3-3s and even a 3-3-3 but sorry I don't see those being in competition. So for me.

    1st Asada
    2nd Cohen
    3rd Slutskaya
    4th Arakawa
    5th Kwan
    6th Kim
    7th Suguri/Ando
    8th Kostner
    9th Rochette
    10th Meissner/Sokolova

    Asada beat all three Olympic medalists that season and beat Slutskaya in both SP and LP at GPF therefore I am putting her first. Yes she lost to Kim at Junior Worlds but with different programs to what she had produced all season. I have no doubt she would done the programs she did at GPF/Japanese Nationals. She was doing a triple-triple in the short program that was very solid that year. It is possible Slutskaya may have reintroduced her triple-triple or Arakawa pull off a triple-triple but I am somewhat doubtful.

    Sasha Cohen was ranked first after the SP at the Olympics and therefore imo judges were prepared to have her win the Olympics and therefore I chose her over either Arakawa or Slutskaya. Slutskaya was ranked second ater Olympic SP and had been the prime skater for two seasons prior to the 2005-2006 GPF and therefore would win over Arakawa. Arakawa therefore would have unfortunately ranked fourth if everyone was clean. Remember she had the fourth highest score after the Grand Prix series but was unlucky to be in two of the tougher Grand Prixs and not make the Grand Prix Final.

    A very flawed Michelle Kwan still narrowly lost a medal at 2005 Worlds but since we never saw programs where her spins and footwork attracted high levels I am unable to place her any higher. And she had of course lost to Cohen, Slutskaya and Arakawa in the 2004 and 2005 seasons internationally. Kim is probably the hardest skater to place because she had never skated as a senior. She had good technical goods and of course beat Asada at 2006 Junior Worlds. But I think Asada did have an edge at that stage and Slutskaya etc were well known.

    I have put Suguri and Ando together as I believe one would not have made the Olympics if Asada was age eligible. Yes Ando had a poor Japanese Nationals and Suguri actually won it but I do think that Arakawa would have been favoured over these two. Suguri was clearly being ranked below Cohen, Arakawa and Slutskaya (it was fair imo) and would have been below Kwan (similar technically at that time) and probably below Kim too. Ando technically was right up there with Cohen etc and of course had a triple-triple but I still feel others were more favoured at that time. And she looked bloody awful that season anyway.

    I have put Kostner next despite it being a home Olympics and despite her being a Bronze medalist only a year prior. She was being ranked below both Cohen and Slutskaya and narrowly defeated a very low technical Kwan. Arakawa was right up there with both Cohen and Slutskaya that season and Asada was ahead of all of them. Kwan would surely be a better skater and Kim was fresh face and technically rather good. Rochette is ninth thanks to winning qualifications at Worlds and being placed 5th in the Free skate at the Olympics. I put Meissner and Sokolova together too. Sokolova when she skated well was rewarded. We saw that at Worlds and the Grand Prix but she had a horrible Olympics but when she skated well the judges were prepared to place her. Meissner was improving and by the Olympics was making the final flight and therefore could have finished a very credible top 10.
     
  6. gingercrush

    gingercrush New Member

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    Ok and lol my 5-10 is basically same as Judge judy but I reallt disagree with where they've placed 1-4.
     
  7. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    I think including Mao and Yu Na in this poll really skews what could have happened if everyone skated clean because they were not eligible to even compete that year. So while i think it is fun to figure out where everyone may have placed, it really is not a true reflection of what could have happened because Mao and Yu Na would not have been there.

    Anywhoo I am not including them. I really think if everyone skated clean, it would have been super close between Sasha and Irina, and Irina would have won. Arakawa did skate clean so I would put her program in 3rd of Sasha and Irina did not make mistakes.

    It is really hard for me to place Michelle because I really don't know what she was capable of doing. Even if she completed 5 triples, I don't see her beating Shizuka due to her injury. She just would not have been able to be at that level. So I am going to put her in 4th.

    I have to thin about the rest.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2013
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I do think Asada would have won the 2006 Olympics since not everyone would have skated cleanly, and she probably would have. I just dont think she would have ever won if Arakawa and Slutskaya had skated cleanly with atleast one 3-3, which both would have done if we are talking about hypothetical bests.

    Suguri would have been picked for the Olympics over Ando for sure that year, even though a clean Ando probably had more scoring potential. After Suguri wining Nationals and Ando coming 6th it would be a no brainer.

    I also dont think the SP result show much regarding Cohen. She skated last and still won the short by only 0.03 over Slutskaya who for whatever reason had her lowest clean SP score of the year, and Shizukas SP was a snooze and she had 2 shaky jumps, and still was within a point. In the LP there are more jumps, and more places for Arakawa and Slutskaya to crush her in GOE points first of all, in addition to probably being more likely to do harder jumps. Shizuka outscored Sasha in the combined points for spins and spirals in the LP, so where would Sasha pick up enough points to beat a way better jumper, unless she was scoring a 70 in PCS or something, or unless we count Shizukas best as not only not doing a triple-triple but only doing 5 like she did, while assuming poorer jumper Sasha magically does 7 (which she has never done). At the very least a clean Shizuka should mean her doing a triple loop instead of a double which would already push her score around 130 (as she would probably get some GOE like most of her jumps).
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2013
  9. gingercrush

    gingercrush New Member

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    Hmm but your theory blows since they're at their best which means Cohen does a seven jump program in the LP and as she had always been ranked ahead of Arakawa prior to the Olympics unless she made mistakes (which unfortunately for us Cohen fans was all the time) then she would have undoubtedly gone ahead of a clean Arakawa. As it was her PCS in the SP put her markedly above both Slutskaya and Arakawa which means the judges would have given her the win since this is a competition where everyone is clean. It wasn't as if Cohen was perfect in the Short either with not the best lutz/toe combo or Double Axel. And despite her mistakes in the long her PCS were only 0.60 below Arakawa. As for spins/spiral/footwork the difference is merely 0.4 in Arakawas favour. But Cohen only produced Level 2 footwork in the long and a level three spin.
     
  10. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    so Cohen's best is a seven triple program, even though she has never done that, while Shizuka who has done a 7 triple program with 2 3-3s in her career is at her best with a five triple program, and not only not attempting any 3-3s but doubling an obvious planned triple to boot is still her best. Great logic there. :rofl: Meanwhile Slutskaya had 3 times in the last year alone done clean 7 triple programs with a 3-3, yet her best is supposably a program with only 6 triples and no 3-3 attempts.

    Of course whenever Cohen skated well she probably beat Shizuka, since Shizuka is even more inconsistent than Cohen and didnt skate anywhere close to clean in over 90% of the events in her career, and was a journeywomen for all but the final 2-3 years of her career anyway. Cohen has never finished above Shizuka in an event where Shizuka skated close to perfectly either, which like Sasha was close to never so there is nothing to go by anyway. Most people will say Shizuka in the 2004 Worlds LP was a higher standard of overall skating than Sasha ever produced though. As it was both Shizuka and Sasha landed 5 clean triples and Shizuka easily beat Sasha by about 8 points both in the LP and overall, and Shizuka is easily more capable of 7 clean triples realistically than Sasha ever would be.

    I do know one thing following their careers, and that is Sasha has never come close to beating even a decent Slutskaya before (but I dont think that automatically means she couldnt either), while Sasha's cleanest ever major competition was the 2005 Worlds where Slutskaya easily beat her. In fact I dont think Slutskaya has ever done more than 4 clean triples in a LP in a competition she lost to Cohen before.

    PCS alone does not decide the winner of an event. If that were the case your picking Asada is the winner in all clean competition when she would definitely have been given the lowest PCS of all of Arakawa, Cohen, Slutskaya, and probably Kwan had they all skated cleanly would be automatically wrong as well; but obviously you acknowledge her superior TES would give her a shot to beat them all. Anyway Slutskaya with her really crappy in everyway LP performance which was about 55% of her best vs Sasha who was about 90% of hers (I would argue her best ever in a major event, only the 2005 Worlds where she was cleaner but with less panache, would rival it) got almost the same PCS as Sasha in the LP as well.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2013
  11. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    I'm surprised to see Kostner so low on people's predictions. She was coming into the Olympics as a reigning world medalist, judges' darling, flag bearer and skating in front of her home country that adored her. I don't see her winning but I see her a strong medal candidate.
     
  12. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Just to make a small correction on someone's post about Kwan not having high level footwork, she did get high level footwork at 2005 Worlds. She and Annette Dytrt received the highest score for their footwork in the LP. Kwan also had a high base value. The problem was that she foolishly had two 6.0 programs early on in the season and didn't do the GP Series (most likely due to injury) and therefore didn't have COP-friendly spins and didn't adapt her spirals for the system that she probably could have fixed if she had been scrutinized under COP earlier.

    I'm not saying she'd be a gold medal contender or anything, but I would like to think had she been healthy enough for Torino and could execute the way this hypo is suggesting, then she'd be better prepared for COP than she was at 2005 Worlds.
     
  13. gingercrush

    gingercrush New Member

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    It was me who said her footwork level was wrong. Despite knowing that I would still rank her where she is. And JJ you miss the point entirely. We're talking their planned content and not Arakawa suddenly throwing in two 3-3s that she hadn't performed all season and of course she throws the Triple Loop which I'm not denying was planned. But despite her practicing 3-3s I'm not included them because she wouldn't have done them.

    Also yes I do rank Mao above everyone else. While she would have had lower PCS. They wouldn't have been so low that suddenly there was no way she was going above Cohen, Arakawa or Slutskaya. And frankly Slutskaya wasn't on 2005 form.
     
  14. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Hard to quantify, but I do think that Slutskaya, Arakawa and Cohen skating to the best of their abilities would've been the podium. If you spliced the first 4 elements of Cohen's '06 Nationals performance with the remaining elements from her Olympic performance, that would've been something!

    While it's true that Asada was winning events on the Senior level leading up to the Olympics, I have a hunch she would've been held back, perhaps on PCS, on the Olympic stage.

    Kwan is the hardest to quantify. Injury free and working on CoP, she may have been top 4

    One of Kim, Kostner and Ando may have made the final group. Ando was not yet the skater she would become in the next quadrennial. Kostner was coltish and Kim was quite juniorish.

    Rochette was also not the skater she would become in the next quadrennial.

    Meissner was strong but lacking. As #3 American, she would've been bouncing around somewhere in the penultimate group.
     
  15. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    I agree. We saw Kwan skate (what was supposed to be) her Olympic SP at the 2005 Marshalls Cheesefest and, while she didn't land much jump-wise (she did a double axel, singled the flip and two-footed the lutz in the 3Lz-2T combo), her footwork was the most COP-friendly she'd ever done. I'm sure her programs would have been carefully thought out.
     
    Maofan7 and (deleted member) like this.
  16. sk8ingcoach

    sk8ingcoach Active Member

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    If all had been clean and skated to their potential i would predict

    1: Arakawa
    2: Slutskaya
    3: Meissner ( even though i hate her she could to 3-3 combo)
    4: Kostner
    5: Kwan
    6: Ando ( assuming she landed 4S clean )
    7: Cohen
    8: Suguri
    9: Rochette
     
  17. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    1. Slutskaya (this is assuming under this hypothetical scenario that not only is Irina clean, but she is healthy too and performing her 2005 Worlds jump layout; her 2006 watered down Olympics LP layout would not have won the gold).
    2. Cohen
    3. Kostner (I would debate that a clean Kostner deserves to finish ahead of a clean Cohen given Carolina's greater degree of technical difficulty, but the judges LOVED Sasha from a PCS aspect and Caro was still considered a kid at this point in her career and lacking in maturity).
    4. Arakawa (remember, she was coming into this event ranked 9th in the world; momentum was not in her favor, so she needed mistakes from others, which in reality happened, but in fantasy land where everyone is clean and healthy, I think she unfortunately finds herself off the podium).
    5. Asada
    6. Kwan (sadly never did grasp being a COP competitor).
    7. Kim
    8. Ando
    9. Rochette
    10. Meissner
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2013
  18. Andofanatic

    Andofanatic Member

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    Gold: Slutskaya. Come on people. It was always hers to lose, and I hate her skating but be real.
    Silver: Kostner. Home country girl. Would have been given huge scores if she skated great.
    Bronze: Ando. She had the triple-triples and improve her artistry that year.
    4th: Arakawa
    5th: Asada
    6th: Cohen
    7th: Kim
    8th: Kwan
    9th. Rochette
    10th: Sokolova or Meissner
     
  19. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    Had she skated her planned 2006 program cleanly even with only 6 triples she would have won easily. She lost gold by 10 points with 2 huge errors, and a bunch of other jumps wobbly and barely landed.
     
  20. torren

    torren New Member

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    1st Asada
    2nd Arakawa
    3rd Slutskaya
    4th Cohen
    5th Kwan
    6th Suguri/Ando
    7th Kostner
    8th Rochette
    9th Meissner
    10th Kim
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2013
  21. Karpenko

    Karpenko Well-Known Member

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    Sasha really had the programs that year. They also showcased a good range of expression for her between the two, looking back at her career I think that 2006 was her best combination of SP/LP. Her PCS would've been higher than Arakawa's if clean in the LP and I think the judges were really on Sasha's side at that competition. It was a beautiful program. Both of them were actually.

    Slutskaya's program had the energy, but she didn't have the style and elegance that Arakawa's and Cohen's programs had. I think that the podium would've been the exact same, but Sasha would've flipped with Arakawa. Triple/triple this/that, they all had 7 triples planned in that program and Sasha would've been in the 9's with a clean (and not a Sashaclean-tm, a real clean like that one Marshalls Robin Lake LP but with an even more gorgeous program/styling). Mao 4th, 5th Kwan :)( Don't think I've jumped ship. She would've needed a 3/3 in the short, I think her long couldve, shoulda, woulda..)
     
  22. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    Really this is one the hardest hypothetical clean events to imagine the final placings of. I guess that explains the wide variety of answers in the thread. Slutskaya is the only one who everyone has winning a medal, and more have her winning the gold in an all clean scenario than anyone else, with her lowest picks so far being bronze. Cohen has a huge range of placings given from 1st to 7th. I cant imagine how anyone thinks the judges would place a clean Cohen 7th but anyway. Kostner also has a huge range from 3rd to 8th. Arakawa ranges from 1st to 4th. Asada ranges from 1st to 5th picks so far. Kwan is one of the ones almost everyone seems to agree on, with everyone having her hovering around 5th in an all clean scenario.

    The other funny thing though is as the event was skated from every prospective contenders by the others, it was a huge opportunity for almost everyone. Kwan for instance even though some of have coming as low as 7th in an all clean event, could have in fact won had she been there and skated a clean short, with a clean 6 and 7 triple long vs Shizuka's 5 triple one, or atleast would have won silver. As it was skated lots of people had chances, or potential chances had they been there, regardless how an all clean scenario goes.
     
  23. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    Not that i think Kwan would have done well in Turin, especialy in an everyone was clean competition, but why is the 3-3 in the short even important. Nobody who mattered even attempted one in either program.
     
  24. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    People are going on the idea that Kwan was so deficient under COP that she would have needed more triple jumps to make up the points compared to other skaters. I'm not sure if I necessarily agree with that because people don't really have an idea of what a abled-bodied Kwan would have scored with a "clean" performance of a program that was COP-friendlier than the ones she had in Moscow 2005. I think that's why there's a consensus of putting her in the middle, because that seems to be the safest assumption (not too high, but not too low).

    Of course we do know that she couldn't do triple axels the way Mao could, or huge 3/3 jumps the way Yu Na Kim could. We also know that her 3/3 capability was close to nothing in the three years preceding Torino since she didn't even attempt them, but how much of that was due to her injury, I don't know.
     
  25. Kaffeine

    Kaffeine Well-Known Member

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    I think a healthy Kwan would have upped her spiral and spins and perhaps include a difficult entrance into her 2axel and/or her 3sal. Add in her 3toe/3toe along with a 3flip/2loop/2toe and 3lutz/2toe..for a seven triple LP and she could have been reached top 5. Maybe higher but not if others landed harder 3/3s or 3axels and were clean.
     
  26. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    Has there ever been a ladies event where all the top contenders were clean. Imagining so is purely a fantasy and pointless. Even the 2010 Olympics which people say is the best womens event ever only 2 of the top 7 or 8 were totally clean.

    Speculating on Sasha skating cleanly is even more LOL as she proved herself completely incapable of a clean long program. Sasha does 5 triples and that is clean for her.
     
  27. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Maybe we should then ask, what would the top 10 at the 2006 Olympics ladies even been if all on the list had been there and fell on every jump (assuming they were rotated)?
     
  28. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Yan LIU would be Olympic champion ! :p
     
  29. query5

    query5 New Member

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    Michelle would have won , she had her levels up for the selectoun committee when,saw her. She,woukd,have,did her triple toe triple toe plus the triple double doybke lije now all d po ung.
    Irina would have been second

    Shizuka woukd have been third. All,was world chamops.
    Also michelle edge out sasha at nationals for title.
    Not to mention they wad oldest at,time of 26,27,24.


    Sasha would have been 4th. Stating look your time.mught be in 4 yamears,.olus mediawoukdhave.paid more attention due to medal at,eorkds.
    Carolina kostner. Miki ando. Mao yuna would have tovwait to develop their oc armore of a mature level.
     
  30. query5

    query5 New Member

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    Carolina, mao . Yuna , miki.,
    You wait your turn. You might have jumos but you are,too,yoyng,too,have the maturity pull off the program pc.
    Look back,and,she thd,difference in pulling off the program,back,tgan,as,now.
    The interpretation of musuc back than,for the above named skatets is different now than,then.
    You,can tell what they are trying to interprst and get across,to judges is different now back,than.
    At 15,16 couldnt pull it off.
    made,the motions but not yhe program.

    Tara in 1998 skateddid the motions at,times but not the program.
    She was too young to fully understand . Make publuc and judges see the way you feel skate,the interpretation of the music your,feeling.
    Michelle got it in,1996which was remarakable.
    Irina by 2006,
    Sasha after on soi. Sasha skated to rigid to music but bendable.
    shizuka got it at the olympics, nb not pressure watch me skate,tovthis,music and see it the way I do.
    Miki. Yuna.,carolina kostner. Mao had to develop it.,
    In essence wait your turn grow up a little