What would podium at 2000 Worlds have been had Irina and Maria done clean longs

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by ohashibiles, Apr 2, 2013.

What would the podium at 2000 Worlds have been had Irina and Maria done clean longs

  1. Kwan gold, Slutskaya silver, Butyrskaya bronze

    13.4%
  2. Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, Slutskaya bronze

    3.2%
  3. Butyrskaya gold, Slutskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    45.2%
  4. Butyrskaya gold, Kwan silver, Slutskaya bronze

    6.4%
  5. Slutskaya gold, Butyrskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    31.8%
  1. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    I said it right before the long program at the team competition and no one believed me then. Having Julia do both programs in the team was a huge mistake for her individual chances. The second she went clean in the long, I predicted a fall in the individual. It was far too much to expect her to go 4/4. That said, if Julia had gone clean in the individual too, I expect the final results would have been: 1. Julia 2. Yuna 3. Adelina 4. Carolina
     
  2. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    You should add Mao as well. I wonder if the Russians would have the collasal ignorance exceeding what they already showed to dare to still try and give Adelina and Julia the gold if Mao skated a clean short and a clean long with a triple axel and 8 triples. :scream:

    The biggest beneficiary of the gift of Julias problems was Adelina. Adelina was only artificially anointed after Julia fell in the short program since a Russian had to win the gold no matter what. So that said had Julia done 2 clean programs I highly doubt Adelina woudl have even medalled, even clean, especialy with Kim and Kostner skating so well.
     
  3. Fiero425

    Fiero425 Member

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    As well as Mao could perform, she had little credibility by the time she got to Sochi! She hadn't landed one of those triple axels! It made no sense for her to even try it, knocking her out of contention right away! She saw what good it did her 4 years before, landing all 3 in her short and long programs and she still was miles away from a superior performance of Yuna! Stupid! She should have shelved that jump and skated to at least a bronze medal, but she was obviously stubborn and it cost her! She salvaged her season by taking Worlds the next month! I have no idea how she did; advertising of the event is almost nonexistent these days with no repeat on tv! I guess if I'm desperate, I can go to YouTube!
     
  4. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    The short program of Mao at worlds and the long program of Mao at the Olympics proves what she was attempting was well within her grasp. She just didnt deliver them in the same competition. Had she done them in the same competition it would have been the best competition ever by a lady. 8 triples for the first time ever by a women (I dont think even Ito ever did 8), first rate spins, excellent spirals, terrific footwork, very good skating sklls, and 5.9 level artistry atleast. To think the judges would have even considered putting a Russian over that, if they would have, is sickening. To put Sotnikova over Kim and Kostner was atrocious enough, but that would be another level. Atleast Kim didnt skate her absolute best compared to some of her past outings, and Kostner even at her best is arguably techically inferior to other top contenders.
     
  5. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Mao would have delivered such a great free skate if she hadn't been so back in the standings. I really hate this expression but Mao truly had nothing to lose by that point.

    Here's a huge What If. If Speedy had his way early and short programs were already eliminated by Sochi, meaning skaters only did long programs, would Mao had taken gold with that long program?
     
  6. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    So if the Russian Fed would have let Adelina do the team competition with Julia, who would you have made do both the SD and FD in the team competition? Bobrova/Soloviev or Ilinykh/Katsalapov? OR would you have made V/T do both the SP and LP right before their Pairs individual competition?
     
  7. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    Bobrova & Soloviev were clearly Russian #1 before Sochi happened so obviously if only one team competed it would have been them. Even if the Russian fed. might have always liked I&K more (which I doubt as even with how inconsistent they have been there were events many felt I&K should have beaten B&S like Europeans last year and they still didnt) there would be no way to possibly justify leaving the world bronze medalists and many time Russian champions off the team in favor of a team who didnt make the grand prix final and had never been higher than 6th at worlds.

    V&T never wanted to do both programs and were outspoken about this, so most likely we now would have I&K excluded from the team event altogether.
     
  8. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    Bobrova & Soloviev were clearly Russian #1 before Sochi happened so obviously if only one team competed it would have been them. Even if the Russian fed. might have always liked I&K more (which I doubt as even with how inconsistent they have been there were events many felt I&K should have beaten B&S like Europeans last year and they still didnt), and even if most felt they were the more talented team with more potentail there would be no way to possibly justify leaving the world bronze medalists and many time Russian champions off the team in favor of a team who didnt make the grand prix final and had never been higher than 6th at worlds.

    V&T never wanted to do both programs and were outspoken about this, so most likely we now would have I&K excluded from the team event altogether.
     
  9. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    If Bute had been World Champ in 2000 too, she would most likely have medalled at 2001 Worlds with the exact performances of the top 4, maybe even silver, with some beneficial judging in the short and the free. But given the way she skated in SLC, a medal is mostly out of the question for herself anyway, but she would probably have at least held off Hughes after the short, and who knows what would have happened even if the final group had given the exact same performances.
     
  10. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    This. This exactly.
     
  11. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I think she was too ambitious and felt the 3toe3toe was not sufficient on its own. In 1998, she was vying for an Olympic medal and the inclusion of the 3toe3toe was supposedly IN ADDITION TO the 3sal3loop, so that she could battle with the other more artistic bronze contenders in Butyrskaya, Bobek, Chen, maybe even Gusmeroli and Hubert. (and also because she was having lutz and flip problems) In hindsight, if she showed a very strong attempt at the 3sal3loop combo on top of that great 3toe3toe, she probably would have medalled in Nagano given how close those ordinals were, so her game plan was right - she was just incapable of making both combos til Worlds.

    By 2000 and 2001, she was already vying for the top spot against Kwan so perhaps she felt she needed markedly more difficult content than Kwan to overtake her - and that's why she kept the 3sal3loop and on top went for the 3lutz3loop instead of the 3toe3toe.

    If she had stuck with a Kwan layout, she would probably have won it over Kwan in 2000 and/or 2001, but given how she was unable to deliver lesser content at either SLC or Turin, it probably wouldn't have made her OGM in any case.

     
  12. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    I could be completely wrong but I dont think Slutskaya thought just of what she might have needed to win the big titles, but of what would leave her biggest legacy on the sport. She knows she would never be revered as this great artistic skater no matter how hard she worked at it. So she wanted to leave her mark as the one who took womens technical skating to a new level again, and since she couldnt (or atleast didnt want to bother) mastering the triple axel, the only way to do that was the super hard 3-3 combos. If she did just a triple toe-triple toe and won worlds in 2000 and 2001 over Kwan she would probably have to deal with talk she was just another held up Russians, etc...but if she won it with the harder 3-3 combos people would praise her amazing technical strength and that is what she wanted, not just winning.

    That she made mistakes at the 2002 and 2006 Olympics attempting easier programs I dont think neccessarily means she would have with a harder program. I think one of her problems both cases was she knew she didnt have to do that much to win, and tried too much to skate down to the level of the competition and be overly cautious, which led to her mistakes even with an easier program.

    Irina is funny though in that so many times she seemed to draw last to skate, or atleast last of the contenders at a major championship. That meant she got to play with strategy if she wished, and since she seems to often miss the mark in that regard, either overestimating or underestimating what she has to do to win, it was probably bad luck for her to keep drawing that spot. She is probably someone that would be better off skating first, and just skating to her plan whatever that was, without thinking about anyone elses great or not so great performances before.
     
  13. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    Adelina still would have won. People keep saying Julia bombing opened it up for Adelina, but Adelina is a better skater than Julia when both skate well and is the real favorite of the Russian fed over Julia anyway. If Julia was the federation favorite I could see Adelina being 2nd to Julia or even out of the medals if Julia skated well, but Russian nationals proves Adelina is their favorite. Julia probably would be 2nd and give them a 1-2, bumping Kim to bronze and Kostner out of the medals despite her best competition ever.

    Julia beating a clean Kim and clean Kostner would be an even bigger joke than Adelina's win but the ladies event at the Games was fixed so they could do anything they wanted.
     
  14. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    As for 2000 worlds the most likely scenario is is long program placements of: 1. Slutskaya, 2. Kwan, 3. Butyrskaya, if all went clean which would lead to final overall results of 1. Slutskaya, 2. Butyrskaya, 3. Kwan. However I do believe that 1. Kwan, 2. Slutskaya, 3. Butyrskaya and 1. Slutskaya, 2. Butyrskaya, 3. Kwan were also possible scenarios for the long program placings if all were clean. The latter would lead to the same final overall result making that one the far most likely one. The only thing I am sure of is there is no scenario Butyrskaya could have beaten a clean (a truly clean, she could have beaten Irina's actual performance which would have given her the gold whether she won the long or not) Slutskaya doing what she had planned. The technical gap between the two is too much for that even be possible.
     
  15. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Bute had planned 7 triples including a simpler 3/3, Slute had planned 7 triples (2 lutzes) including a more difficult 3/3.

    There is a gap but it's not that big I would think. She had an easier combo and solo jump in the short but still won handily on the second mark, and even on the first mark for many judges.

    "Clean" is a tricky word for Bute and Slute. Bute could be totally charming and smooth like in 1999 and 2000, or could be awkward like 1998 or 2002. Slute could land strong jumps or could land them way out of position and control. Who knows which one would have shown?
     
    bardtoob and (deleted member) like this.
  16. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    It is hard to know what a "clean" Maria or "clean" Irina looked like on any given day. Conversely, we always knew what a "clean" Kwan looked like from 1995-2005, even if the program construction and technical difficulty varied over this time period. My hunch is that Maria and Irina would have both been higher than Kwan, but I don't know who would have won.
     
  17. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    Butyrskaya didn't have a 2nd triple lutz. She had a 2nd triple toe instead. Huge difference, especialy in that day in age when the judges needed to see 2 triple lutzes from a top skater. She didn't have a triple-triple combo, not even a triple toe-triple toe like Kwan. She only had a triple-triple sequence, which is easier than a triple toe-triple toe, let alone what Slutskaya probably had planned which was probably something harder than that. So in terms of technical difficulty planned she was clearly behind what Kwan did, and probably even further behind Irina although it is uncertain exactly what Irina was planning.

    She handily beat a clean Irina and Michelle in the short, but the short program is not a good indicator. Maria's long program would not have been skated at the level of her short program even clean. The program itself wasn't as good and well suited to her as the short which suits her and her skating style and strengths perfectly, and her technical difficulty was much closer to equal to Michelle and Irina in the short than she would have been in the long where as outlined above she is way behind. It is also hard to imagine her executing all the elements as smoothly and beautifully in the long as she did in the short, even skating cleanish, as she never does even in her rather small pool of other cleanish skates over her career.

    As for 98 and 2002 Maria didn't skate cleanly in any major events those years, so not sure what you are even referring to.
     
  18. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    In addition to what I have already said Irina was the Russian federation favorite. As we saw with the Sochi farce the Russian fed. is alpowering and can dictate over all. Even making a crappy skater like sotnikova an Olympic champion over legendary skaters who skate cleanly. So based on that alone there is no way Maria would be allowed to win the world title over Irina if both skated well, she would have had to settle for the silver with a 2nd or 3rd place in the long program. She could have won the title with a 1st or 2nd place in the long with Irina's subpar performance, but that would have been her only chance since the all powerful Russian fed had clearly put Irina back as their #1 going into worlds after Maria's one year stint in that role the previous season.
     
  19. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    Sorry ... corruption is not native to me. I assumed that how the skaters looked on the ice had something to do with placement.
     
  20. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    What skaters do on the ice does matter, but when skates are even relatively close the Russian federation rules all, especialy when it is two Russian skaters involved. Atleast when it is Kwan vs Slutskaya, it is two skaters with full backing of a strong federation. Skaters like Hughes and Butyrskaya aren't even top dog of their federation. Maria had a chance to build on her world title and remain top Russian dog, even with Irina's strong comeback but with poor skates at Europeans, Nationals, and the grand prix final, where Irina skated really well and took advantage of Maria's poor skates to win each, that opportunity was already gone before worlds even began. I think the Russians were hedging their bets which skater to give #1 support with both now strong, or whether to split it evenly like they did with Yagudin and Plushenko, but Maria made that decision for them by skating poorly all season and not living up to her world title status. Maria had another chance to take it back with Irina's subpar skate and failure to win the world title, and her comfortable lead on Kwan meaning she could defend her title with a clean or almost clean skate, but she blew that again, and the chance to be Russian #1 never again came for her. Especialy as she was entering granny age for a skater thereafter, and both her consistency (never strong to begin with) and skating quality took the predictable downturn an older skater usually does, and she longer had Russian #1 or even co-#1 or her world title status to aid her.

    In any case Maria would not have had the chance to win the 2000 worlds (and probably not Kwan as well, but for sure not Maria) had Irina delivered at those worlds in the free skate. She didn't so Maria could have won, but that wasn't the poll title.
     
  21. hertmirsh

    hertmirsh Member

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    Maria only attempted 6 triples in both her qualifying round and long program. She attempted a triple lutz, triple flip, triple salchow-half loop-double toe, triple salchow, triple loop, and triple toe in qualifying. A triple lutz, triple flip, triple salchow-half loop-triple toe, triple loop, double salchow, and triple toe in the final long. So it looks like either way she only planned 6 triples, and the triple toe or triple salchow as her only repeat triple, without any true jump combination at all, not even a triple-double. That is way behind all of Kwan, Slutskaya, Hughes, maybe even Gusmeroli in technical difficulty. She still could have won but it would have had nothing to do with her technical difficulty which was unimpressive. To beat a stronger Slutskaya or Kwan's skate she would have had to be outstanding in her technical delivery of her easy technical program, and try for straight 5.9s and maybe some 6.0s artistry though. Then to even do what was needed to win overall with Irina's bad skate, atleast finish above Irina's 6 triple long, would have still required a pretty good and almost clean performance of her easy technical program. Her qualifying round wasn't perfect but might have done it.
     
  22. artsciboy

    artsciboy New Member

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    In the Qualifying, Maria landed 3z, 3f, 3t-.5lo-2s, 3lo, 3s*, 2a(hand down), 3t. In the LP, she landed 3z, 3f, 3t-.5lo-3s(incomplete rotation), 3lo, 2s*, 2a, 3t.

    *Maria only attempted a second 3s if she missed it in the 3t-.5l-3s attempt. I wrote earlier in the thread that Butyrskaya's second 3s was most likely planned to be a 3lp-2t - provided she landed the 3-3 sequence - that's what she did earlier on the GP circuit. At Europeans, the second 3s was a 3z combo attempt.

    I still tihnk that if she landed everything: 3z, 3f, 3t-.5lp-3s, 3lp, 3lp-2t (or 3z-2t), 2a, 3t - and with her momentum in the SP (where she was so clearly above the rest of the field, who also skated clean albeit with slightly stiff/shaky performances), I think Maria would have won the LP and won her second world title. This inspite of the fact that I thought Maria's Swan Lake program was subpar compared to her Otonal and 17 Moments in Spring programs.
     
  23. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Thanks goodness the results ended up the way that they did then.
     
  24. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    Maria as a 2 time world champion isn't that scary. Is it really any worse than Miki Ando (ugh) as a 2 time world champion, or even worse Anette Poetzsh as a 2 time world and Olympic Champion.
     
  25. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    I'm biased when it comes to competitions with an in-her-prime Kwan.
     
  26. chanunderrated

    chanunderrated Member

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    So it is more about Kwan than Maria in this case. OK I got ya. I feel the same way about competitions with an in-his-prime Chan. I get so mad when people say he didn't deserve some of his titles. I admit I am super biased though since he is my favorite.
     
  27. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    I agree with all you said, except that your post doesn't take into account what if Irina had skated the way she had previously that season. After all the thread is not just what if Maria skated better, but what if Maria AND Irina skated better. Even those who unlike you don't think Maria could have beaten Michelle's LP, and/or would have placed only 3rd in the LP behind both Michelle and Irina had all 3 gone clean would concede Maria winning had she gone clean. Since a perfect Maria would almost have to atleast be placed over a flawed Irina, and she didn't even need to beat Michelle in the LP to win. So asking that question would be pointless, and hence nobody would make that as a thread.

    However beating a perfect Irina who potentially had a triple lutz-triple loop and triple salchow-triple loop planned is another matter entirely; especialy with that drab old Swan Lake number which even skated perfectly could probably not scratch the surface of her excellent short program or excellent winning long program the year earlier, and looks borderline embarrassing put up against the stunning Swan Lake of Baiul in Lillehammer. Remember Irina skated right after Maria too, so if Maria knocked it out of the park and got even higher marks than Michelle's LP to be 1st in the LP itself, Irina skating right after would pull out her full arsenal to ensure victory with a clean skate. Irina skated way after Michelle so might have had no idea how great Michelle skated, and even if she had knew Michelle's marks were lower than merited for her excellent skate due to skating 1st in the final flight before short program leads Maria and Irina anyway. If Maria put up a bunch of 5.9s you had better believe Irina was bringing out everything, and if she did it would be almost impossible for a judge to deny her 1st place based on the technical insanity alone if she delivered it all. That plus the judges gave her some super generous marks for the performance she gave, almost winning the LP over Michelle with that skate was crazy. In contrast to Maria who was given very stingy marks even for her not so good skate. There are even some who think Maria should have beaten Irina in the LP and defended her title as it was, and yet her marks were light years behind, which shows which skater had the judges favor despite Maria's convincing short program win (which was impossible to deny her as her short program was so stunning, not a reflection the judges liked her per say).
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2014
  28. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    Was Maria's Swan Lake strong enough to get a row of 6.0s artistically? (for the record I don't think so) Since that is what she would have needed to compensate for the row of 6.0s Irina would have gotten technically had she duplicated her grand prix final performance but with smoother landings on the two difficult combos at worlds.
     
  29. ladygagafan

    ladygagafan Member

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    Maria as a 2 time world champ would have been the death of the sport. 2000 worlds would have been the final worlds ever held in figure skating if that ever happened.
     
  30. joubertelegant

    joubertelegant Member

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    Based on the short program scores Maria would win no problem. She got 10 5.9s for her short program, and skaters who skate a clean long after a clean short ALWAYS get higher marks for their long program than their short program, so obviously a clean long would net more than 10. Kwan got only 4 for her outstanding long program. I don't know what Irina could get, but since no judge would ever give her a 5.9 for presentation, that means she couldn't possibly match 10, let alone the greater than 10 Maria was certain to get for a clean long based on the foolproof short program/long program rule.