What would podium at 2000 Worlds have been had Irina and Maria done clean longs

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by ohashibiles, Apr 2, 2013.

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What would the podium at 2000 Worlds have been had Irina and Maria done clean longs

  1. Kwan gold, Slutskaya silver, Butyrskaya bronze

    13.5%
  2. Kwan gold, Butyrskaya silver, Slutskaya bronze

    3.2%
  3. Butyrskaya gold, Slutskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    44.9%
  4. Butyrskaya gold, Kwan silver, Slutskaya bronze

    6.4%
  5. Slutskaya gold, Butyrskaya silver, Kwan bronze

    32.1%
  1. VolosozharGOAT

    VolosozharGOAT Member

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    Maria would win for sure considering she didnt skate cleanly in 2 of her 3 programs and still was robbed of the gold overall. With both skating cleanly Slutskaya would edge Kwan for silver, as Kwan has never beaten a clean Slutskaya before (I mean the real Irina from 99 onwards, not Irina 1.0).
     
  2. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    ??? :confused:
     
  3. dorianhotel

    dorianhotel Member

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    He probably means even with her mistakes Maria should have placed 2nd in the long which would have given her the gold. At the time of the event there are many who felt that way too, so it would hardly be an unreasonable thought.
     
  4. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    If this doesn't clear up your confusion, briancoogaert, clean out your "In" Box and send me a private message. :)
     
  5. DannyCurry

    DannyCurry Active Member

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    Well, Irina didn't plan 2 triple salchows. She repeated the salchow because she doubled her 1st attempt.
    Her layout would have been 3Lz-2Lo, 3S-3Lo, 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F, 2A, 3T, and she would have held the flying camel longer.
     
  6. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    You know what, I totally agree! I have nothing against Maria, but sheesh idk how she was ever compared to Kwan/Slutskaya.
     
  7. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Had Maria won the title (probably with or without a cleanish skate) it would have been mostly based on her short program which was truly outstanding, and fully deserving of 1st place. And I say that as a noted Butyrskaya "basher" according to most people here, I do admit I like to give both her and Fumie a hard time over the years. Her Swan Lake was back to showing all the typical flaws of her skating though, when you compare it to say Baiul's stunning Swan Lake or even Urmanov's you just laugh, and then when she made major mistakes with that she was toast as long as Kwan and Slutskaya skated well.
     
  8. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

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    Anyone who thinks Slutskaya wouldnt have won is crazy. Had she just skated a clean program with 7 triples, not even doing a triple-triple like Kwan or a triple-triple sequence like Maria had planned, even that would have won it for her easy. The marks she got for her flawed 6 triple performance already make that obvious. She got very generous marks for both technical merit and presentation, especialy when you consider she sacrificed a large chunk of choreography to throw in another jump she popped and still didnt do it. 5 of the 9 judges gave her a higher technical mark than Kwan, some .2 higher, even with a performance with a mistake and much less completed content. 3 of the 9 judges gave her a higher mark than Michelle for presentation, including 2 who didnt even give her a higher technical mark. So just imagine an even slightly better skate. She probably had planned atleast a triple salchow-triple loop which would have made her win all the more emphatic, but she didnt even need to have bothered with that if she didnt want.

    I dont know why more are voting for Maria than Irina. Maria's long program sucked, and could not even approach the level of her short program performance even if she were clean. She didnt have 2 triple lutzes planned like both Kwan and Slutskaya did, and a triple-triple sequence is worth almost nothing extra, it is far less valuable than even the triple toe-triple toe Kwan included. I am not sure if she would have even beaten Michelle in the long program since Michelle skated so great that night and had very good marks, but since a clean Irina was easily winning the long anyway it wouldnt matter since Maria 2nd Michelle 3rd, Maria 3rd Michelle 2nd, both add up to Maria silver and Michelle bronze overall. Those of you who think Maria (or Michelle, but especialy Maria) would have been marked over a perfect Irina are crazy. The judges held Irina up and nearly gave her the gold even with her mistakes, and hammered Maria and gave her super low marks, almost losing to Gusmeroli in the long program with just a couple errors. With Irina's subpar skate, Maria would have come 1st or 2nd in the long to win had she gone clean, but not if Irina also did. I guess Maria fans are crazy as Yu Na Kim ones.
     
  9. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

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    That doesnt mean anything really. Kwan hardly ever faced a main rival skating that well the very limited number of times she landed a jump list like that. Slutskaya never lost a competition she skated a clean long program in after 1997, does that automatically mean it never could have happened too. For a real laugh Butyrskaya (who was never a gold contender outside 99-2000) never lost a competition she skated a clean long program after 1996, does that mean had she always skated cleanly with atleast 6 triples she would win every competition after 1996? Given that the most consistent singles skaters skate clean with their best content only about 10% of the time, it is no surprise they all probably never lost when doing so. It doesnt mean in some unlikely hypothetical more than one did they wouldnt ever have.
     
  10. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Slutskaya lost SLC.

    Butyrskaya lost that infamous 2000 NHK. If you are just looking for 6 triples, then there's 2001 Worlds too.
     
  11. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Well Kwan was first to skate in the final group and Slutskaya much later (second last?). I think it's the ordinals that mattered more here.

    But yeah, the judging in the short indicated that Slutskaya probably would have won if all 3 were clean, even though I feel she shouldn't have - but that's another discussion.

    If all 3 were clean, I would judge them like so:

    Short: Bute, Kwan, Slute.

    Free: Kwan, Bute, Slute.

    I feel Slute had a better shot at the title in 2001 since she had a better short program than in 2000 and even more clout after having beaten Kwan more times in 2001.
     
  12. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

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    Agree with all you said. The only real question is who would have taken 2nd in the long between Michelle and Maria if Maria had gone clean, but that wouldnt mean a thing since Maria would win silver and Michelle bronze regardless. I also wouldnt have given Slutskaya the title even skating cleanly probably, well maybe if she duplicated her GPF performance but I dont think she was ever planning that kind of content at worlds. I am sure the judges would have given it to her though.

    I agree she felt like an even stronger favorite in 2001 than 2000, but on the other hand I think she would have had to skate better in 2001 to win than in 2000 since the judging panel seemed more willing to reward Michelle at the 2001 worlds than 2000 where you can tell the momentum was really towards the Russian ladies, and the judges also were not overly generous to Irina at the 2001 worlds like they were in 2000 and some other events. I am not saying Irina couldnt have won in 2001 but I think she would have had to skate better than what she would have had to skate to win in 2000.
     
  13. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

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    I dont consider Slutskaya's SLC performance as clean.

    I had forgotten 2000 NHK though, thanks for reminding me. Butyrskaya bombed the qualifying round at the 2001 worlds so no chance of a clean competition, and doubling the 2nd triple lutz is a major mistake in those days of ladies skating as well.
     
  14. Fiero425

    Fiero425 Member

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    If I remember NHK for that year, Maria skated the best she possibly could; even clicking on 2 3-Lutzes! Peter C. actually thought she had won! Of course the judging had already been decided and she wound up with Silver behind Irina! To myself I said, "cry me a river!" She had been gifted a couple Gold medals in other GP events; esp. in Paris where Jenny Kirk was underscored being a newbie from the US!
     
  15. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

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    Jenny Kirk didnt even finish 2nd to Maria at that event though. She was 3rd behind Volchkova who also had mistakes. International judges were never that impressed with Jenny. She skated too small for their liking I guess.
     
  16. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Too small and her jumping technique was strange, although her LP in Paris was very impressive for such a young skater ! ;)
     
  17. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

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    Her jump technique was very strange. Her jumps just looked so ugly. I think that really held her back.
     
  18. Fiero425

    Fiero425 Member

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    What bothered me just as much about her getting only a bronze, the program ended with a triple lutz! Who does that to a little girl? The coach and her mom should be dissected and eviscerated! It was bad enough she was skating an adult program, but to finish like that had to be stressful to her little body!
     
  19. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    Maybe she wondered the same thing since a little over a year later the Scotvolds were gone.
     
  20. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    She revamped her jumps later on and they became bigger - but she also lost some consistency.
     
  21. zigzig

    zigzig Member

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    Strangely enough, the Croatian judge, one of two who gave Irina the nod in the long, actually placed Michelle ahead of Irina in the short (5.6/5.7 for Michelle and 5.4/5.8 for Irina). I wonder if he felt pressured to give Irina first in the long after going against the tide in the short.
     
  22. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Figure skating judging would be more scary if clean Red Violin Kwan did not beat clean Swan Lake Butyrskaya. Red Violin wasn't one of Kwan''s best programs, but she sold the crap out of it and nailed everything and a 3/3. Butyrskaya's flaws were well on display in her Swan Lake program (her short on the other hand was so much better) which was extremely inferior to Kwan's program. Plus it was technically easier, and her jumps have never been the prettiest... I don't know what the judges would have done, but I sure hope they would have seen Kwan's program as superior (because it was, in every way).

    I do agree that if Slutskaya had a 3/3 and went clean then she'd easily have won the FS at that worlds. They were itching to give it to her, and she looked really good at that event.
     
  23. rollingrace

    rollingrace Member

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    I dont think Maria's program would have gotten super high marks even with clean. Even considering the 2 mistakes her marks were quite low. Maybe clean she would have just gotten enough to beat Slutskaya's performance as was and barely stay ahead of Kwan overall to win, but I am quite sure she would have been marked beneath a clean Irina, and probably a clean Michelle in the LP too. She was never going to get marks nearly as high as her short program I dont think based on the marks she already got for what he did. The judges may be biased and questionable at times but they are also not stupid and probably recognize all the points you just made; and Maria was never a judges favorite anyway so unless she did something truly exquisite like her short program her marks would never be through the roof.

    BTW I love Kwan's Red Violin program and it was possibly my favorite program ever from her, and her LP at the 2000 worlds is my favorite skate she ever did, even more than 2001 worlds which most would pick over it. I know that isnt a popular opinion though.
     
  24. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    I dont know what Maria's coach was thinking when she selected Swan Lake as the program for Maria's title defense year. They would have been better off keeping Otonal a 3rd straight year if they couldnt think of anything else. It is not like she couldnt have won using Otonal a 3rd year. Petrenko won worlds and Olympics with a boring 3rd year program that isnt even as good as Otonal, so I am sure the judges would have been fine with Maria defending her title with Otonal if she skated well enough. Just like Maria should have kept her 2001 program for the Olympics season rather than her wierd new one with the trains and sirens crashing in the background.
     
  25. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    I think Slutskaya probably planned to do the same jumps as she had at the grand prix final: triple lutz-triple loop, triple salchow-triple loop, triple lutz, triple flip, triple toe. Had she done that jump layout she would have been unbeatable. I cant assume anyone would plan to do less than their hardest jumps they had already done that season at the years biggest event.

    As for Butyrskaya vs Kwan, Michelle didnt control her own destiny vs Maria at that point, since she needed someone to finish between her and Maria in the long program to pass her. So if Slutskaya did her grand prix final performance, Michelle would have to settle for 3rd place overall even with her great skate.
     
  26. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    The GPF was a head to head format that year. Since Kwan and Slute made it to the super final, they would be battling for 1st and 2nd place only, even if both fell on every single jump and Hughes and Bute went clean with 8 triples. At that point Slute was the underdog and was 2nd after the short. She practically had nothing to lose and everything to gain by going for everything, which she did and became the turning point in her career vs Kwan.

    The format is back to usual at Worlds and she would have a lot to lose by going for everything. She had won the GPF and Euros and had the momentum against Kwan. I would bet she was probably only going for the 3sal3loop but not the 3lutz3loop.

    By the way, IIRC, once she did the luztloop and salloop at the GPF, she changed the 2nd lutz to a 3toe.
     
  27. ripingroar37

    ripingroar37 Member

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    I think Slutskaya was planning either just a standard 6 or 7 triples with no triple-triple or 7 triples with the triple salchow-triple loop as her only one. It as obvious by how she did the first triple lutz-double loop there was never any intention to triple-triple it. I also highly doubt she believed she would need that to win, even if she had been aware of Kwan`s performance. That she went to try the triple salchow again after doubling it might mean she thought she needed the triple salchow-triple loop, or it might mean she didnt want the possablity of being down to only 5 triples at that point which obviously wouldnt be enough. It is hard to say for certain.

    Her triple-triple loop combinations were always very inconsistent, although it is still remarkable as she was the only women even trying and sometimes doing them, but she stuck with only triple-triple loop combos her entire career anyway. I wonder why she didnt attempt more triple-triples ending with the triple toe in her career, be it the triple toe-triple toe or the more difficult ones, and if that might have proven a more fruitful plan for her. The triple loop was one of her best jumps as a solo jump but those combinations are super tough. The only one who was consistent with triple- triple loop combos ever was Lipinski but that was with a tiny breatless, hipless pencil body, and she blew out her hip by 16 as a reward. Unlike Lipinski, Slutskaya was loved enough by judges she probably didnt need triple-triple loop combos to win big events.
     
  28. hertmirsh

    hertmirsh Member

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    I wonder if Butyrskaya had won if the judges would now be forced to consider her a contender for the 2002 Olympic Gold as a 2 time world champion from that quad, even with the obvious decline of her skating by 2002. She also skated pretty well at the 2001 worlds so maybe with the reputation advantage over Kwan and Slutskaya as the reiging 2 time champion she would have won gold, even though she finished 4th behind Hughes without the world title status to help her anymore.
     
  29. alchemy void

    alchemy void Running away from POTO

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    It's weird. Slutskaya did gorgeous big 3toe-3toes at Nagano Olympics and 98 Minneapolis Worlds (in the second half of the program) but then we only saw it again at 2000 NHK where it was badly cheated at the end of the program. I'm guessing she just lost the feel for the toe combo and somehow felt more comfortable with the loop combos. Interestingly enough, her final 3toe usually was a little tilted and her least aesthetically pleasing jump. Otherwise it males no sense for her to not do a 3t-3t, especially with the launch of COP in 2005
     
  30. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    Here's a suggestion for another thread topic, along the same lines: What would the podium at Sochi have been had Yulia and Adelina both done clean long and short programs?