What would Olympic podiums from 92-2014 been if everyone skated cleanly

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kwanoverrated, Aug 27, 2013.

  1. Lnt175

    Lnt175 Member

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    The 92 Olympic ladies was one of the biggest dissapointing competitions though, where the top level skaters all faltered. Mistake ridden competition that could have been completely different across the board if all the top 4 or 5 went clean.
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2013
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    It was dissapointing since it could have been a great event with all the talent in the field. Kristi, Midori, Tonya, Nancy, young Surya, Josee, young Lu, young Yuka, Hubert, all skating their best would have been amazing. However in the end the second tier skaters failed to capatilize on the mistakes by the favorites to get anywhere near the podium, so it didnt make a whole lot of difference in the results. Things would have been roughly the same, the top 4 would have still been Yamaguchi, Ito, Harding, and Kerrigan in some order. Maybe Kristi would have dropped to silver or bronze behind Ito and/or Harding, maybe Harding would have risen to silver or bronze and pushed Kerrigan off, but ultimately things wouldnt have been that different, as the second tier contenders didnt do anything to capatilize on the mistakes of the main favorites, they skated badly too, and the top 4 coming in remained the top 4. Even Kerrigan could have won with a totally clean skate being 2nd after the short, and skating after Kristi's mistakes, and that would have been a huge upset and shakeup, but she couldnt come close in the end. Young and extremely unpolished Bonaly skating cleanly in the long could have won the bronze with how Kerrigan did, which would have been about as big an upset and shakeup as Kerrigan winning the gold, but she too couldnt come close either. Ultimately none of the womens results ended up THAT surprising and could have been easily imagined before the Games. Kristi winning wasnt surprising, even if Midori was the slight favorite going in, and Kerrigan pushing one of the big 3 off the podium wasnt surprising either (especialy being that it was Harding who after U.S Nationals looked the most vurnerable of the 3 main gold medal contenders). It was just a surprisngly poor set of performances to get there.

    That is unlike the mens event where Wylie who probably wouldnt have even finished in the top 5 if Browning, Petrenko, Bowman, Eldredge, and Barna had all simply skated the same as the 91 Worlds (not even perfectly) grabbed his massive opportunity to win the silver, and the gold medal favorite Browning finished a lowly 6th.
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2013
  3. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Regardless of that being true or not, how does that translate to a clean Plushenko losing to a clean Lambiel in Torino? It might've been closer (well, it would've been closer) but he still would've won.
  4. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^ When regarding clean skates from two skaters from the same country, the deciding factor may have been who had more support:

    1992 men: IF Bowman and Eldredge skated cleanly, Eldredge would've probably snagged the bronze and the podium would've been the same as '91 Worlds. Eldredge held most favored status with the USFSA and even if you argue that Bowman was capable of blowing the roof off the arena when he was ON and clean, he was pretty much unloved by the USFSA. Still, who knows. International judges are not national judges
  5. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think if Barna skated cleanly with his quad and triple lutz-triple toe, even with no triple axel, he probably would have outplaced both Americans. At the 91 Worlds he beat a very good Bowman (whose only mistake was a fall on a quad try but had a clean triple axel and triple-triple) and nearly beat a 2 triple axel Eldredge with no quad, no triple axel, no triple-triple, and a turnout and some minor mistakes. Remember the European judges loved him and his skating (I personally never did, but that has no bearing on the results). I think as it was he would have beaten Petrenko for the gold had he not fallen on a triple flip near the end, even with a two footed quad and not doing the triple lutz-triple toe combo. He lost silver by .1 to Wylie's far stronger performance.

    I agree between Eldredge and Bowman, Eldredge would have gotten the nod. I think had everyone skated well Bowman would have been down in 5th or even 6th behind an inspired Wylie perhaps. Unfortunately Christopher's stock had been going down with the judges for quite awhile at that point, and Todd was more the USFSA favorite than he was. I dont think Bowman would have gotten a bye to the Olympics if he missed Nationals injured. The 91 Worlds was a pretty clear indication how they saw the top guys skating well, and Chris even admitted he thought of quitting as he was so depressed skating so well and finishing 5th there. Everyone knew his immsense talent but he had dissapointed people for too long by that point I guess.
  6. escaflowne9282

    escaflowne9282 Well-Known Member

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    Considering the judging of the SP in SLC, I actually think Kwan was much more favored by that panel, and would have easily one in a clean tete-a-tete with Irina.
  7. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^I think there were statements that came out during the whole pairs judging scandal that there was going to be a trade, where the Russians would pick up Pairs and French would get Ice Dance for the French vote to B/S in pairs, but Ladies would go to the US -meaning Kwan over Slutskaya; Russian Fed sacrifices Slutskaya (close rival to Kwan) for B/S (close rival with S/P). Thus, if both Kwan and Slutskaya had gone clean, Kwan would've won.

    As it stood, interestingly, both Kwan and Slutskaya had similar mistakes in their LPs - 1 2-footed landing (Kwan on the 3toe and Slute on the 3lutz) and 1 bad landing (both on the 3flip; Kwan's more egregious) and the judges put Slutskaya ahead of Kwan. IF Kwan had been clean and Slutskaya been clean I think the judges would've put Kwan ahead.
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2013
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Considering the judging of the LP I strongly feel the reverse is true. Keep in mind she lost the gold only by .1 and a tiebreaker to Hughes even with that lame ass performance. In fact I generally feel Irina was always the judges favorite from 2000-2002 and would have won always given a similar caliber skate to someone else. Unfortunately for her in the LP of the 2000 Worlds and 2001 Worlds, and the LP of the 2002 Olympics, her skate was not of similar caliber to someone else.

    Anyway if we are talking about skaters doing their best, and not just clean which could have a whole bunch of denominations, Irina would have had a triple lutz-triple loop, and there is no chance of Kwan from 2000 onwards ever beating her with something like that, even on home ice.



    BTW I thought Slutskaya losing the SP in SLC as some kind of scandalous result was always a myth. Irina's SP in SLC was by far her worst clean short of the year. Her last combination spin travelled badly (in one particular split moment, so seperate from just the general travelling it usually has some of), and was IMO a much worse minor mistake than Kwan's triple flip. She had a big break in steps before the triple flip, and she was much slower than usual (was again in the LP too). Had she done her Grand Prix final or Worlds LP which anyone with a good set of eyes can acknowledge were MUCH better, I have no doubt she would have the SP 9 judges to 0 most likely. Especialy with Kwan's minor triple flip issue and usual strong short program skater Butyrskaya's weak and sluggish skate; and there would be no feeling the judging panel in SLC was against her or against the Russian skaters at that point, like some said after the SP. The only injustice in the SP was Hughes's ridiculous 4th place for her mediocre and sluggish albeit cleanish skate which made anything more than maybe a bronze medal possible for her, and this to the ultimate later victimization of both Kwan, Slutskaya (and even Cohen) after Hughes's great long program to come, but that is a whole other topic I dont want to reopen.
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2013
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  9. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Whether any of that is true, considering the whole pairs scandal that went down and the Russians being forced into a state of embarssment (unfairly IMO as I felt B&S were actually the rightful winners) all that which might have been beforehand went out the window. The Russians nearly got their much inferior dance team to a gold medal over a much superior set of performances by the French. Any loyalties the Russians might have promised to someone else pre SLC were already completely out the window by the time Sale & Pelletier were awarded a 2nd gold medal.

    Anyway in hindsight it is extremely clear there is no way the U.S were involved in some multi event trade to get Kwan the gold to help Russia win the pairs. The Americans were the biggest opposers to the Russian pairs gold all along, including an American referee telling judges before the event they shouldnt give B&S any 5.9s for their short program no matter how they skated since they skated early. So whoever made those statements got his rumors from the wrong gossip mill it seems.
  10. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Further to 2002 Ladies. I wonder where Hughes w/ a 3-3 would've been placed in relation to a clean Kwan and clean Slutskaya w/o a 3-3?
  11. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think she would have been 3rd. She didnt get a single 5.9.

    I think Kwan skating cleanly without a 3-3 would have gotten 5.7s and 5.8s technically and 5.8s and 5.9s for presentation, winning the LP over Hughes on a split vote. Kwan with a 3 toe-3 toe would have gotten mostly 5.8s technically and 5.8s and 5.9s for presentation, probably winning in an unaminous choice over Hughes now.

    Slutskaya skating cleanly with a 3-3 (which for her would most likely be a 3 lutz-3 loop or maybe a 3 sal-3 loop, some type of much harder 3-3) would have gotten 5.9s and 6.0s for technical and mostly 5.9s for presentation (tech. greatness always elevates presentation scores, and anyway her extremely slow, flawed, and weak LP had several 5.9s for presentation). Slutskaya skating cleanly with no 3-3 at all would have most likely gotten scores similar to her Worlds LP, mostly 5.8s and a few 5.9s on both sets.

    The only way I would see Kwan even possibly winning over Slutskaya if both were clean is if Kwan included the 3 toe-3 toe and Slutskaya tried a triple-triple of no kind, but had Irina skated after Kwan skated extremely well there is no way she wouldnt have tried one of her harder 3-3s anyway (she never tried the 3 toe-3 toe after 98) so that is moot. Meanwhile I dont see Hughes finishing above either in the LP even with her 3-3s, if Kwan or Slutskaya went clean even without a 3-3.
  12. clairecloutier

    clairecloutier Active Member

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    Going back to Kristi/Tonya for a moment, I don't think either had a really strong advantage in the judges' minds in 1991-92. I think it came down to how many, and which, jumps each landed per competition. Tonya had the advantage in difficulty with the 3A but Kristi was more consistent. It's interesting to look back at their 1991 Worlds SPs:

    Harding: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYI46Dq2-X8
    Yamaguchi: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-vRIzbBMsg

    In these programs, they each had clean performances with almost exactly the same elements. From today's perspective, you can see Tonya had an advantage in overall speed, jump height, and spin speed. Kristi had an advantage in line, elegance, and spin positions. Kristi won this SP. To me this is a bit of an indication that, all things being clean (and with Kristi putting out 3z/3t against Tonya's 3A in the long), the judges were prepared to give Kristi the nod. Maybe. :)
  13. itoaxel

    itoaxel Member

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    Kristi was certain to miss triple salchow. For her clean skate is fall or single triple salchow. So a clean Kristi (counted triple salchow miss as her clean) would lose to clean Midori and maybe clean Tonya with triple axel. Even if judges like her artistic more, 4 triples wont be placed over someone with 6. Well maybe a clean Kim with only 4 different triples could beat a clean Midori or Tonya with all 6 but Kim does huge and difficult triple-triples with amazing flow, and her artistic is stronger than Kristi's, and speed much more.

    The women ladies medal tallies going clean would go:

    1992:

    Gold: Midori
    Silver: Kristi (counted triple salchow fall as clean)
    Bronze: Tonya (maybe silver)


    1994:

    Gold: Chouinard
    Silver: Yuka Sapo
    Bronze: Bonaly, Baiul, or Kerrigan (no idea which


    1998:

    Gold: Chen
    Silver: Lipinski
    Bronze: Kwan



    2002:

    Gold: Slutskaya
    Silver: Cohen
    Bronze: Kwan


    2006:

    Gold: Slutskaya
    Silver: Arakawa
    Bronze: Kwan (had she skated and both she and Cohen been clean Kwan would get nod)


    2010:

    Gold: Kim
    Silver: Rochette
    Bronze: Asada


    Mans skaters:

    1992:

    Gold: Petrenko
    Silver: Browning
    Bronze: Barna


    1994:

    Gold: Boitano
    Silver: Browning
    Bronze: Stojko


    1998:

    Gold: Stojko (with quad, without quad 5th if all clean)
    Silver: Kulik (with quad, without quad bronze if all clean)
    Bronze: Eldredge


    2002:

    Gold: Plushenko
    Silver: Yagudin
    Bronze: Goebel, Eldredge, Honda, Abt, no idea which.


    2006:

    Gold: Plushenko
    Silver: Lysacek
    Bronze: Weir


    2010:

    Gold: Plushenko
    Silver: Lysacek
    Bronze: Takahashi or Lambiel
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2013
  14. Lnt175

    Lnt175 Member

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    I don't think I understand Chen getting gold while going clean in Nagano. For her she was as clean as she was gonna get at that point, minus the step out of the flip (from 97-98). Her jump layout was nowhere near Lipinskis. Her jumps were not as strong as hers or Kwans at that point. True she had beautiful artistry that was superior to the others, but Kwan was on her level even though she didn't skate it as well as Nationals. Lipinski was getting very strong presentation marks as well (while deserved or not is another story). I think if the top skaters went clean she would be off the podium to Butryskaya and Slutskaya.

    A case could be made for her in 94, where she wasn't favored to win gold, but had lots of diffulty (didn't hit all her difficulty as planned in Lillehammer) and was a much better overall skater with her spins and speed. Although she wasn't as polished as she would be in later years she could have gotten even better presentation scores with a perfect routine as well.
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2013
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I tend to think if everyone was clean Chen would have finished only 5th or 6th at the 94 and 98 Olympics both. 94 probably undeservedly to be that low but still would have likely been the judges slot for. At the 94 Olympics she wasnt perfect, but at the 93 Worlds she was perfect in both programs and came a fairly distant 3rd to Baiul and Bonaly, and needed Kerrigan and Chouinard to blow their long program performances pretty badly to beat them. Sato didnt have all the triples yet in 93 so finished below Chen there, but by 94 she had all the triples. So I think that gives a pretty clear indication to where the judges saw her in 93-94 if everyone did their best, although Bonaly doesnt usually meet her standards of the 93 Worlds even on a very good day, and Chen's artistry had already improved some from 93 to 94. A case could be made if everyone skated their best at the 94 Olympics Chen might have deserved gold, especialy with her stunning short program that year, but she never would have gotten it. Just like at the 94 Olympics I wouldnt have had either Baiul or Kerrigan even on the podium if everyone was perfect, but you know that the judges would have probably had both on it somewhere, or atleast 1 of them.

    98 5th or 6th would have been the correct placement for her if everyone skated their best as her technical skills were inferior to other top skaters even on her best day by then, and the other top skaters all had very strong presentation too, to varying degrees of course. It was still great that she could skate so well and get the bronze though, after all she had been through. Sad for Maria though who probably would have retired in peace with her 98 Olympic bronze and 99 World title sometime in 99 or 2000 (she admitted so herself) and avoided skating in Salt Lake City as a shadow of her self, and missing out on the last bit of the pro boom too.
  16. paskatefan

    paskatefan Well-Known Member

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    I was going to withhold my comments on this, but I don't think it would have been far fetched @ all for Todd to win bronze in SLC had he not had the unfortunate mistake/fall in the SP. I don't see it as a retirement gift with home country advantage, either. His free skate was magnificent, notwithstanding the fall on the blasted quad which, IMHO, is STILL overemphasized to the exclusion of all else in men's fs.
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2013
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    It is questionable whether Todd even skating well would deserve to be Goebel with his 3 quads. Didnt Honda also have 2 quads. A clean Honda with quads would even more clearly deserve to beat Todd who probably would have none. Many would say Honda was artistically superior at that point. Stojko always beat a clean Eldredge even when Stojko didnt attempt or missed his quad. The sheer power of his jumps always overcame Todd even when Todd landed more jumps and Stojko got hammered in artistic scores. So he too would be over normally. Abt skating like he did at Europeans would deserve to beat a clean Eldredge too.

    So yeah if Todd did win the bronze in an all clean event it probably would be a career achievement award of some sort like kwanoverrated implied. Not that I would have minded it, it would be a case a skater might deserve it all things considered.



    As for the quad being emphasized, that isnt neccessarily a bad thing. Otherwise something like Vancouver where a skater who not only doesnt have a quad but doesnt have anything else great either becomes an Olympic Champion. It shouldnt be emphasized to the point that Chan keeps falling on his face and winning everything, but apart from that it has never been that overemphasized.

    It also never applied to Todd whasoever.The only people Todd regularly lost who had quads were people he would have regularly lost even if they werent doing any quads- Stojko, Kulik, Urmanov, Yagudin, Plushenko. So in the end it really made no difference for him (other than his losses to Goebel which would have never happened without the quads of course).
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2013
  18. itoaxel

    itoaxel Member

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    Lu had a triple-triple and 2 triple lutzes in her program planned. Maria and Irina did not have 2 triple lutzes. Maria and Michelle did not have a triple-triple. Lu had 7 triples like Tara and Michelle, and unlike Maria and Irina who only planned 6. So her program was 2nd hardest technically behind Tara. That combined with better artistry than Tara I am guessing would have given her gold if she skated cleanly, or atleast 1st in the long program.

    Although she would have been only 7th to 9th in the short if everyone had done clean, so I guess I forgot that part of it, and was only thinking of terms that she was 4th in the short as it was taking advantage of others mistakes.
  19. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    Kwan did have a 3toe+3toe planned for her SLC LP. Her MO was to plan the 3toe+3toe and if she happened to double the 2nd 3toe, then she would replace the split jumps at the end of her program with the 2nd 3toe.
  20. ciocio

    ciocio New Member

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    Lysacek was also overscored in Vancouver, so they basically replaced one overscored skater, Plushenko with another overscored skater, Lysacek, but NBC and probably Inman too agreed with Lysacek's victory because he is American. This is very fair and objective. :rolleyes: I've never heard what Inman, Hamilton, etc said about Plushenko's PCS because I live in Europe and fortunately we have Eurosport.
    Why don't they organize some North American Olympics if it is so important that they ratify each Olympic Champion and opinions outside N/A obviously don't matter?

    Actually, as Lala already has pointed out , Plushenkos's PCS in LP were very good. In 2006 he clearly was a better skater, so his scores were higher. His SP was also better and better skated. While Inman and the NBC gang were so busy checking Plushenko's marks, judges ovrescored Lysacek is SP compared to Takahashi, who should have been second or even first.

    Regarding Lambiel, just like Plushenko, he wasn't the skater he used to be in 2005 or 2006 and even clean he would have been surpassed IMO by Takahashi.
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2013
  21. itoaxel

    itoaxel Member

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    Lambiel lost bronze to Takahashi by less than a point even with about 6 mistakes, and gold by only about 10 points. Skating cleanly not only would he have crushed Takahashi, but would have easily won gold over Lysacek and Plushenko too.
  22. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    While I agree that Lambiel would've won if skating clean (I thought Euros tipped the hand there), it's not as if Takahashi was clean in Vancouver either. A clean Takahashi would've easily scored 10-15 points higher.
  23. itoaxel

    itoaxel Member

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    I know. I do think Lambiel made many more worth of mistakes than Takahashi though. Takahashi only had his fall on an underrotated quad and one other UR call. Lambiel had numerous mistakes in both programs, especialy the long. I think if both skated cleanly Lambiel would be gold and Takahashi silver.

    Either way that doesnt matter since the post I posted after I thought meant was saying even if Lambiel skated cleanly and the rest of the event was skated exactly as it is he would have still been 4th behind Takahashi and that is proposterous. I might have been misinterpreting though.
  24. Triple Axel

    Triple Axel New Member

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    Your Vancouver Men's was NOT FAIR!! I adore Stephane Lambiel, but the OWG was not the first time he's had trouble with the triple axel!! It has NEVER been his friend, so skating it cleanly was out of the question. It isn't like he had one bad skate with it. So this poll is 'what if everyone skated perfectly. Not to the best of THEIR abilities. Okay, in THAT case, everyone wins!! And I do NOT agree that Dai, although I love him, would have ever beat a clean Plushenko. I think if we are getting rid of errors, we should also reslove injuiries. Hands down, uninjured, Plausheko walks with another OGM.
  25. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Lambiel wasnt even attempting the triple axel. He didnt even need it to win over quadless Evan either however.

    As for Takahashi not beating a clean Plushenko, keep dreaming. Lysacek even beat a clean Plushenko. Takahashi with a quad and much better artistry than both would have cakewalked to the Vancouver gold. His PCS even with the big fall and other mistakes was higher than Lysacek and Plushenko, and his base value with a clean skate was higher. A judge was interviewed after the event and stated had Takahashi skated cleanly he definitely would have won in Vancouver as he was everything the judges were looking for in a mens champion.

    There are probably tons of guys who would have beaten Lysacek and Plushenko in Vancouver had they skated cleanly, not just Lambiel and Takahashi. Some Plushenko fans seem to be living in a time warp and thinking 2010 was still 2006, which in the aftermath of the actual result (which I disagreed with in Evan winning btw, but that is aside the point) is quite unbelievable. Either way the fact a quadless Lysacek won the gold, when even Lysacek with quads is easily beatable by a horde of potentially superior skaters (Lambiel, Takahashi, Chan, Abbott at this best, a few others) proves a ton of guys could have won the gold in Vancouver skating cleanly. Lambiel and Takahahi most likely the top 2 in either order in that case however.
  26. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    Those are pretty good. Just a couple changes to yours I made for myself in bold.

    Slutskaya would have won gold at the 2002 Olympics if everyone skated cleanly, not Kwan. Kwan would have taken silver. Anyone who followed the early 2000s realized that the only times Kwan could beat Irina are when she was clean and Irina made mistakes. If they made comparable mistakes or sometimes if Irina had more, Irina always came out ahead. One short program result doesnt change that. The 98 Olympic ladies event should already be enough proof not too read too much into short program results, and Kwan won the short program very easily in 98 as opposed to barely winning it and controversially so in 2002. Irina skated last, no matter how well Kwan skated her marks would have peaked at 5.7s and 5.8s technically and 5.8s and 5.9s in presentation as they would have had to save room for Irina, just like the 2000 and 2001 Worlds. Irina would have had every opportunity to beat that regardless, whether she would have delivered or not is another matter.

    I have no idea what the 94 ladies results would have been if everyone skated cleanly. The one thing I am pretty sure of though is Chen wouldnt have even medalled, let alone won, so I simply bumped her off completely and moved everyone else you posted up a spot, unable to really decide on a order. It could have been any combination of Sato, Bonaly, Baiul, Kerrigan, and maybe (but less likely) Josee in that case, but probably Baiul would never be pushed off the podium in that case being the only certainty.

    Stojko did skate cleanly at the 98 Olympics but chose to not attempt his quad. Skating cleanly without a quad as he did he would have lost silver to Eldredge skating cleanly, and also been pushed right off the podium by young Yagudin skating cleanly with a quad. Candelero beat him in the free program which shows how he was a bit lucky to still salvage silver.

    Honda had 2 quads planned in his 2002 Olympic LP. Had he even done one he beats Goebel, no question.

    At the 94 Olympics Stojko did skate cleanly and did lose to Urmanov, so if one assumes Petrenko and Browning go 1-2 just like 92 going clean, then it is pretty certain Stojko doesnt medal if everyone else skated cleanly too.
  27. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Great effort, museksk8r.

    Though, I would put Kwan ahead of Lipinski in 1998 and Slutskaya in 2002- skating with attack, speed and a well-landed 3lip would've been enough for Kwan to get the Gold in 1998. It also depends on what you mean by clean for Slutskaya in 2002; two 3-3s? Probably, but I don't think that 2 well-rotated 3-3s were within Slutskaya's grasp in 2002. They would be on the road to Torino, when she fixed her jumps which were getting more scrutiny under CoP

    IDK about 2006 pairs - a healthy S/Z would've been a huge obstacle to T/M, because they underwent their artistic transformation in 2003 and T/M were not necessarily the most aesthetically pleasing Russian / Soviet Pair
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  28. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    Irina would not have needed two different 3-3s to beat a clean Kwan. What kind of craziness is that. I could see someone thinking Irina needed one clean 3-3 to beat a clean Michelle, although I would totally disagree even then, but thinking she needed two, ROTFL!!! Tara beat a clean Kwan in 98 with only one 3-3 and Irina >>>>>>>>>>>> Tara as far as who they preferred in competition with Michelle goes. Lets look at some of the Kwan vs Slutskaya events from 2000 to 2002:

    2000 Grand Prix Final- Irina skates amazing. Michelle skates so so. Irina wins easily with a 6.0 for technical merit, and almost all 5.9s on both marks. Not even really significant as this was pretty straightforward except when the reverse happens as later examples will show Michelle doesnt win as easily.

    2000 Worlds- Michelle skating her best performance ever probably with amazing speed, 7 triples, a clean 3-3 combo wins in a split decision over Slutskaya with only 6 triples (one maybe two footed), a big mistake, no 3-3, and Irina had higher technical marks overall and higher presentation marks from some of the judges. It was very clear by the scores Irina would have won for sure simply skating a clean 7 triple program with no rearrangements, and she wouldnt even had to include the triple-triple toe Kwan did or any type of triple-triple either (Irina always did a harder one than that when she attempted one anyway).

    2001 Grand Prix final- Both skate sort of sort so so with only 5 or 6 clean triples. Irina wins easily, losing only 1 judge.

    2000 Skate Canada- Both skate kind of so so with only 5 or 6 clean triples. Irina wins easily, losing only 1 judge.

    2001 Worlds- Michelle's skates an amazing performance, on par with her 2000 Worlds performance. Irina skates a sloppy program with one clear mistake, a step out of a jump, her own triple-triple is badly underrotated and program not even credited by the judges, and several other shaky moments/landings. Still a split decision, and Irina still has the higher technical mark.

    2002 Grand Prix final- Irina with 4 triples in both her long programs wins over Michelle who lands 5 and 6 respectively.

    2002 Worlds- Both Irina and Michelle skate cleanly in the final free skate with 6 triples and Irina wins that phase with slightly higher technical scores and comparable or higher presentation scores.

    It is clear it is Michelle who had to be exceptional and Irina less than so for Michelle to win their confrontations in this rivalry, not vice versa, or not like it was in the reverse in the Tara vs Michelle rivalry. So how one concludes from that Irina needs two 3-3s, which Tara who would have never beaten Michelle or even been competitive with her in the above scenarios of other Irina vs Michelle competitions, didnt even need in 98, I have no idea whatsoever. Not to be rude but what are you smoking exactly.

    Based on the above examples of how they were scored against each other in the early 2000s the only way I see Kwan having beat a clean Irina at all is if Michelle skated like the 2000 and 2001 Worlds lights out with a 3-3 and all and Irina skated super cautious with only 5 or 6 triples and no 3-3, basically something just a bit better than her Olympic performance (now already enough to win over Hughes) and on par or a bit less than her Worlds performance.
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2013
  29. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    As for the 2006 pairs events, had Shen & Zhao been at their absolute best it probably would have been a virtual tie with Totmianina & Marinin. Their scores from the 2005 GPF and T&M's from Turin are virtually the same. As it was Shen & Zhao coming off an injury wouldnt have been at that level of skating even had they gone "clean". By the scores from Turin it seem Shen & Zhao were unlikely to even beat the Zhangs for the silver if both went clean, especialy if the Zhangs landed their quad throw. The Chinese fed. were probably wisely backing the Zhangs as their #1 for Turin with S&Z in an uncertain state, and that would have played a part in the scores even had they skated unexpectedly cleanly. T&M had the full weight of a strong Russian fed. behind them and with S&Z not even the undisputed Chinese #1 at that point, this would have ended any battle at that particular competition.
  30. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    The people saying Lambiel going clean wins in 2006 over clean Plushenko must be playing a game of "I am the judge" and putting how they would have had it. There is no way the judges were going that way, especialy with Lambiel not planning a triple axel in either program at the Turin Olympics, and wasting his spinning ability by mostly having only having level 2 spins. Lambiel was the best spinner in the World at the time and should have been gaining the most points in spins. He didnt though since he chose some level 2 and 1 spins, and some of his competitors were doing 3 or 4. With all that I wonder if he would have even won the silver if everyone had skated great in Turin, or if he could have been threatened even by clean Buttle or clean Joubert. Unless he did do a triple axel, then the silver would be a lock but I dont think he ever meant to do one there.
  31. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    Harding should be the winner in 92 if everyone skated cleanly. She had the perfect combination, Kristi's artistry and Midori's great jumping ability. She also had better spins and speed than both. Probably the judges would have gone with Kristi and Midori gold and silver in either order and Harding only bronze had they all been clean due to marking Tonya down for her trailer trash lifestyle. Not right but it is what they would have done. With how Kristi, Midori, Nancy, Josee, and everyone did skate in Albertville they would have had to give Tonya gold if she skated like 91 Nationals or 91 Skate America though. There would have been no choice.
  32. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. Kwan w/ a 3-3 and Slute w/ at best only one 3-3 would've given Kwan the Gold. My calculations were at that point in time (2002) Slute was never going to do 2 clean 3-3s. Kwan's 3t-3t was generally more dependable than any 3-3s Slute threw out there
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
    kwanette and (deleted member) like this.
  33. Lnt175

    Lnt175 Member

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    I agree Harding was a gold medal threat if she was in her 90 or 91 self, and others missing a jump or 2. I'm not sure if she'd win though if Yamaguchi and Ito were perfect. I think they would have had higher scores. Plus Ito as I said, had even more difficulty planned, and she wasn't s a slouch in the speed and spins department either. Yamaguchi was considered the most artistic, and even with her performance in Albertville had very high marks(wheter deserved or not is another story). Kerrigan and Chouinard would have no hope if all 3 skated well.

    As for SLC I agree Slutskaya had developed such a repertoire that she would have won. Kwan had the advantage of skating at home though, so a perfect skate from her might have done it in that case. In all other competitions outside the US though I do think a clean Slutskaya was winning (as evidenced by their head to head meetings in the early 2000s).
  34. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Had Tonya skated cleanly with the triple axel in 92 I think Kristi would have needed both the triple lutz-triple toe and triple salchow clean to beat her, and she never did that. The only time she landed the triple salchow was the 92 Nationals but she didnt do the triple lutz-triple toe there (she had a step in between).

    I am kind of surprised nobody has Bowman even medalling in 92, or even possibly the gold or silver. I only say that since people on this forum I have seen often calling him the most talented skater, and wouldnt the most talented skater translate to something skating their best, even if all others also did? I know I didnt pick him for a medal but that is because I was never one of those who considered him the most talented skater.
  35. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Since this thread goes to 2014 I might as well do what I think will happen in 2014 if all go clean:

    Men

    Gold- Chan. Gold not only if clean, but if he has no more than 4 falls worth of mistakes he will be gif...err I mean given gold even if Fernandez, Takahashi, and Hanyu, his 3 main competitors are all perfect and spectacular. I still predict him to be 3rd or 4th with even more than 4 falls worth of mistakes however, then retiring (thank goodness).

    Silver- Hanyu. His GOEs and inflated PCS would carry him to silver.

    Bronze- Takahashi. Judges still like him as the Grand Prix final showed. Might even be able to do better in this scenario, hard to say. Fernandez also might win silver or bronze in an all clean competition, it would be very close, apart form Chan's 40 point margin of victory.


    Ladies

    Gold- Kim. I dont think this would be the runaway as the men in that case though. Kim, Kostner, and Asada would all end up fairly close in points if all went clean.

    Silver- Asada. She will lose to Kostner if both make a similar number of mistakes, as I think she will, but will beat her if both go clean due to base value.

    Bronze- Kostner. Read above.


    Pairs

    Gold- Volosozhar & Trankov. Would need 2 falls to be in any serious danger at this point.

    Silver- Savchenko & Szolkowy.

    Bronze- Barazova & Larionov. This is if they go clean remember, not neccessarily a prediction of the result.


    Dance:

    Whatever the judges feel that day, but obviously either Davis & White or Virtue & Moir for gold.
  36. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I actually give a slight edge to D/W at this point. Over the past few seasons, Team D/W has slowly but effectively corrected what kept them behind V/M for years; making Meryl into a true leading lady whose SS are now equal to Charlie's. A leading lady is probably more important to Ice Dance than Pairs. It's to the point where D/W can beat a healthy V/M in Canada ('13 Worlds). It was never like that before, in the grand scope of things.
  37. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    When Lysacek beat the clean Plushenko? At Vancouver? Hm. Plushenko wasn't clean in LP, but you are right, his jumps were better like Evan's, contrary to what the Americans thought.
    Lysacek received only a judges warning for a wrong-edged takeoff on his 3F, plus Lysa's first 3A was prerotated.

    and as I wrote:

    Plush's Interp-8,75 Perf/ex- 8,8

    Dai Int-8,65 Perf-8,5

    Evan's Int-8,4 Perf-8,5
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  38. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    kuzytalent,

    I think your rationale may work, but it relies too heavily on past examples. Every competition is new, we have no idea what that particular judging panel on that particular night in the U.S. would have done between Slutskaya and Kwan. We never really saw a competition in which both skaters skated lights out to the best of the abilities against one another. Usually one would win when the other would falter (even if it was slightly). I mean look at S/P v. B/S. S/P won over B/S as many times as Slutskaya beat Kwan over the season prior to SLC (if not more). Then look at what initially happened in SLC.

    Maybe this is me misremembering the attitudes going into SLC, but wasn't it a popular conception (or misconception) that the Olympics were Kwan's to lose since the Nagano narrative was so strong and that the judges were going to give Irina the World title as a consolation. Some said the GPF was also a consolation ala Bourne and Kraatz's win.
  39. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    No way Evan's 2nd triple axel should have been credited. It was badly underrotated, but the judges ignored it. I will have to go back on tape and look at the first again. I didnt agree with Evan's win but I didnt want to go there again as it is a dead horse that has been beat repeatedly. I do sense the judges were looking for anyone but Plushenko to win after Inman's letter. After the short they were probably hoping that would be Takahashi, but when he didnt deliver they had to look for it to be Evan who had skated cleanly (well was scored as such anyway).
  40. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you. At this point D&W have the edge. I simply wouldnt call it a foregone conclusion or count V&M out at this point. However if I had to pick the winner now it will definitely be D&W. They will also probably be the sentimental favorites having not won OGM yet.