What if 94 hadn't messed up the Olympic schedule?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by moviechicko_o, Mar 1, 2014.

  1. moviechicko_o

    moviechicko_o New Member

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    Who would've won instead?

    1996
    2000
    2004
    2008
    2012
     
  2. chmea

    chmea New Member

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    Please not again :scream:....nothing against you personally but this question has been discussed so many times...There's nothing we can change now, and there is so many "what if" we can say...
     
  3. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    This has been done already. I wore out a keyboard pontificating about this before, so not sure I'll jump in again … unless someone else does and makes it interesting :shuffle:
     
  4. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    96- Baiul or Sato, Stojko or Urmanov, Shishkova & Naumov, Usova & Zhulin
    2000- Slutskaya or Butyrskaya, Yagudin or Plushenko, Berezhnaya & Sikharulidze or Shen & Zhao, Anissina & Peizerat
    2004- Arakawa or Cohen, Plushenko, Totmianina & Marinin or Shen & Zhao, Navka & Kostomarov
    2008- Kim, Takahashi, Totmianina & Marinin or Savchenko & Szolkowy, Delobel & Schoenfelder
    2012- Kim, Chan, Savchenko & Szolkowy or Volosozhar & Trankov, Virtue & Moir
     
  5. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    :confused: Kwan and Chen were the dominant skaters in 95-96 season. Also Michelle won 2000 Worlds. Kim hadn't become the dominant force she was in 2009. She was also injured around early 2008. Daisuke was the strongest that season, but he is never a sure bet due to consistency issues. Neither of them won worlds that season.

    All I can say is that if it wasn't changed, timing would have been more favorable to some of my favorite skaters.
     
  6. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    I had always thought about this... It's always interesting to think how much the sport would have changed if there were no Lillehammer Games.
     
  7. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    I'm assuming that kuzytalent means that, had there been no Lillehammer games, Baiul and Sato would have stayed on and might have been the dominant skaters, rather than Kwan and Chen.
     
  8. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    I don't think they would have exceeded the technical content or artistry of Kwan and Chen, who were both both phenomenal in 1996.
     
  9. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    I dont think Kwan would have ever won the 96 Olympics as she would never have had the rep for it under normal circumstances. Remember as it was she was only 4th at the 95 Worlds. Even if we assume all else remaining the same a few more people would have still been skating amateur at that point so at best she would have been about 7th at the 95 Worlds now. A skater who was 7th at the pre Olympic Worlds will never become Olympic Champion in the 6.0 days (yes I know Shizuka and Sotnitkova, but that is COP world). Anyway had there been no 94 Olympics I am 99% sure Kwan wouldnt have even taken her senior test as early as she did so she wouldnt have even likely been far enough along to qualify for the 95 worlds (even if both Harding and Kerrigan werent around), let alone get the incentive to improve as much as she did in the 95-96 season by getting the message she was almost on top. All things considered if a time machine were invented I would bet tons of money Kwan doesnt win the 96 Olympics, regardless who does.

    Now Chen maybe. However Chen was never the one the judges wanted to see on top. The only time they allowed her a major title was the 95 Worlds where all the other contenders F-ed up (apart from 14 year old Kwan) in one or both programs. Many thought she should have won or placed higher than she did at all of the 92 Olympics, 92 worlds (not win either of those but place higher), 93 worlds, 94 Olympics, 96 worlds. Any chance the judges had to go with anyone else though they did. She should have been heir apparent to the top instead of Baiul based on what she did in 92, but she never was. She should have been allowed a defense of her 95 title skating as well as she did at the 96 worlds given how skating worked back then, but she wasnt. I just dont see the judges crowning her olympic champion ever, even if she deserved it. They would not allow her such a prestigious title.

    So Baiul, Sato, Kerrigan if she stayed, Bobek if she pushed like she did in 95 if 96 were an Olympic year, Yamaguchi if she came back, Ito if she came back skating better than she did in her 96 comeback, whoever. Definitely not Kwan though IMO, and probably not Chen either.
     
  10. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    I dont think Kwan would have ever won the 96 Olympics as she would never have had the rep for it under normal circumstances. Remember as it was she was only 4th at the 95 Worlds. Even if we assume all else remaining the same a few more people would have still been skating amateur at that point so at best she would have been about 7th at the 95 Worlds now. A skater who was 7th at the pre Olympic Worlds will never become Olympic Champion in the 6.0 days (yes I know Shizuka and Sotnitkova, but that is COP world). Anyway had there been no 94 Olympics I am 99% sure Kwan wouldnt have even taken her senior test as early as she did so she wouldnt have even likely been far enough along to qualify for the 95 worlds (even if both Harding and Kerrigan werent around), let alone get the incentive to improve as much as she did in the 95-96 season by getting the message she was almost on top. All things considered if a time machine were invented I would bet tons of money Kwan doesnt win the 96 Olympics, regardless who does.

    Now Chen maybe. However Chen was never the one the judges wanted to see on top. The only time they allowed her a major title was the 95 Worlds where all the other contenders F-ed up (apart from 14 year old Kwan) in one or both programs. I just dont see the judges crowning her olympic champion ever, even if she deserved it. They would not allow her such a prestigious title.

    So Baiul, Sato, Kerrigan if she stayed, Bobek if she pushed like she did in 95 if 96 were an Olympic year, Yamaguchi if she came back, Ito if she came back skating better than she did in her 96 comeback, whoever. Definitely not Kwan though IMO, and probably not Chen either.


    As for those other years, Kim did dominate most of the 2007-2008 season. She got a back injury in March just before worlds, and almost certainly would have won otherwise, especialy with Mao winning with mistakes. Olympics in February, no March back injury, gold for Kim IMO.

    As for the 2000 worlds Slutskaya would have won that title with any of her performances that season except for what she did at worlds. Butyrskaya would have also won the overall title with her europeans LP and Olympics was right around when europeans was. That is even assuming Kwan skating that well at an Olympics, which is in itself unlikely. In fact Olympics was right around U.S Nationals and she would have been lucky to even get a bronze medal with her skates from there. The judges at the time of the 2000 worlds clearly preferred other skaters to Kwan but the stars aligned for her to win that event with perhaps her best skate ever, mistakes from the Russians, and the perfect long program placings. I dont think another randomly timed event 5 weeks earlier, especialy one Kwan has never done her best at, adds up to a win for Kwan, possible but unlikely.



    BTW Chen was in no way a dominant skater the 95-96 season. Slutskaya and the comebacking Ito were seen as stronger contenders than her going into worlds. She had a poor grand prix series, losing to Kwan at Skate America, Josee Chouinard at Trophee France, and all of Kwan, Slutskaya, and Chouinard at the Grand Prix final where she landed only 2 triples. Nobody expected her to skate as well as she did at worlds and even challenge Kwan.
     
  11. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I agree with most of them but I disagree about Usova & Zhulin in 1996. I think G/P would have won since they were able to win in 1994. They may have established themselves as even more dominant over U&Z by 1996. I'm not sure about Kim in 2008, but I'm also not sure who else it would have been, since Mao was too young. Carolina was WSM that year - heck, it could have been her!
     
  12. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    And it's not even the off season :p
     
  13. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Didn't she get the injury earlier, because she skipped 4CC that year. I don't think she was a sure bet. It was fair game that season. This was before she was skating as consistently as she is now. Also, she wasn't perfect in her SP all season and taking out the loop later in the season placed her at a disadvantage technically, though keeping it in was always risky, since she was prone to making mistakes on that jump.
    And Irina and Maria have better track records at the Olympics? Michelle skated very well at her first Olympics, far more so than Irina and Maria ever managed to do.
     
  14. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    You are right but from 2000-2002 the only times Michelle was ever beating Irina was if Michelle was great and Irina was subpar. If both werent great Irina would always win out with the judges. Many thought even with her fall that Michelle should have beaten Irina`s lackluster and incredibly slow long program at the 2002 Olympics but even in the U.S she still didnt. The way the judging at the 2000 Worlds was, both Irina and Maria would beat Michelle that particular year if they skated even fairly well and Michelle was anything less than 105%.

    I agree Kim in 2008 wasnt a complete lock but she was still the most likely winner that year IMO. At the grand prix final Mao did her best and cleanest long program ever, skating cleanly with a triple axel and 2 triple-triples. Yu Na Kim fell on a triple loop and still lost the long program by less than a point to stay ahead overall.
     
  15. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    Carolina would not have even medaled at an Olympics in 2008. Olympics they wouldnt dare put someone with that many mistakes (like she always made back then) on the podium, and she was also lucky worlds was such a mess. The podium would likely have been Kim gold, Asada silver, and one of Rochette, Ando, or Nakano the bronze.

    G&P had that boring generic latin number by 96. Lucky for them K&O werent real rivals to them yet, like the next 2 seasons, so it didnt matter. U&Z had horrible cheese Nina Rota routine in 94 which still lost them the OG to G&P by a mere .1, and I am guessing would always any other year have a better program that that. Had there been no 94 Olympics there would have been no T&D comeback which might have also been what confused the Russian plans and put G&P over U&Z suddenly that season. There also wouldnt have been an Olympics only 2 years after which probably had an even bigger part in jumping to G&P so fast. I am just thinking had there been the usual 4 years between Olympics they would have followed standard protocal then, senior Russian top team win everything that quad, retire and then the next in line (G&P) tak over and win everything the next quad. The Olympic cycle switching and reinstated pros changed all that.
     
  16. miki88

    miki88 New Member

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    Well, Irina had proven to be subpar at both of her Olympics, and MK managed to pull out upsets if you call it at the big competitions, so I feel it's definitely possible. Kim fell on the loop but rotated it, and just including that jump added more points to her base value. That was the only season I can recall Kim planning 7 triples in her FS. When 2007 GPF is reviewed, there is always so much focus on how Kim wasn't so behind despite a fall, however she actually skated very well beside that one fall. And Mao got deductions for her landings on some jumps; small errors that add up. Also her disastrous SP at that event might have led judges to scrutinize her performance more. The reason I believe no single skater was a lock that season is that the judges kept the PCS very close among the top skaters. And yes even Kostner had a chance that season. Btw, at Worlds in the LP, Nakano managed to edge Kim in PCS, which is something that would never happen after 2009.
     
  17. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    I just dont see Kwan pulling out an upset win at the Olympics, when it is she who always experiences an upset loss at the Olympics. We will just have to agree to disagree, I am not going to change my mind. This is a useless speculation thread anyway as we will never know the answer to any of this.

    I agree Kim wasnt a lock in 2008 but I think she was the most likely winner. And when making my picks if I felt strongly on someone as the most likely winner I named one name, and if I was divided I listed more than one. However you slice it though 2007 GPF LP was still Mao`s best ever and cleanest ever of such a difficult program since she was an underaged junior skater. Even more than the Olympic LP this year although that is by far the next closest. Kim attempted the triple loop that entire season btw so there is no reason to assume she wouldnt have done it at the hypothetical Olympics too.
     
  18. screech

    screech Well-Known Member

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    In 2008 for mens I think Jeff would have been more likely than Takahashi to win, since Jeff was more 'established', plus that's the year he had the skates of his life at Worlds. Of course, we also can't rule out Plushenko. Or Lambiel.
    Miki Ando could have won for ladies, being the reigning world champ.
     
  19. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    Par is the amount expected with routine competence. Irina had more athletic potential than Michelle but rarely performed at that level, so that level was not par for Irina. The only time I ever felt Irina really beat Michelle was at 2005 Worlds because even Michelle at her very best and healthiest never matched that content.
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2014
  20. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    Irina and Michelle met 10 times in official ISU events (I dont know or care the record of cheesefests like the Marshalls and Hershey Kisses classic) from the 99-2000 season until the 2001-2002 season and Irina won 8 to only 2 for Michelle. That is suffice as the par that was generally expected from both during this period. The only saving grace for Michelle's hopes is in Olympic and World events it was 2-2.
     
  21. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    While Ando is a 2 time World Champion would never be crowned as Olympic Champion in a million years (there are only certain skaters judges would ever allow such a title), and who knows if she would even be the 2007 World Champion. People like Slutskaya, Cohen, Arakawa might all still be around, and Kim and Asada might have felt less pressure in their performances there.

    As for 2008 Worlds, Takahashi was the overwhelming favorite to win that year after his Four Continents performances. If he skated even close to that nobody had a hope of beating him, and definitely not Jeff without a quad. Jeff's World winning scores were about 20 points behind Daisuke's Four Continents winning scores. Granted he might have messed up at a hypothetical Olympics too but his skating was generally quite consistent that year (including at the Grand Prix final where he was robbed to Lambiel, the worst controversy of the year), and I think the Worlds was probably just a bad outing at the wrong time.