Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kuzytalent, Jul 26, 2013.
Didn't she say that this season too? Talking is one thing, doing it another one...
Something she also acknowledged.
Like I said in the other thread, I'll give her the benefit of the doubt.
Look at Michelle Kwan. She talked for years about upping her technical ante for years. Everone was but she did it the Olympic season.
Granted, it didn't work out for Michelle the way she wanted, but she put it out there.
I expect Ashley to do the same.
Oops double post.
Alright... honestly, even if she realized that herself, I'm still sceptical about it until I see it. But I'll keep my fingers crossed she'll go for it. I liked her a lot in 2011-2012 (especially 4CC), but I thought she was tentative this season and always held back a little. We'll have to wait to see it anyway
Kwan is a bad example IMO, especially since her disastrous oly season only seemed to prove that frank was right all along and she should have listened. Ashley is with nicks, who hyped Sasha up to death promising all sorts of things she never delivered on. I'm surprised Ashley isn't claiming to have a quad! I get why they hype... It is a judged sport where reputation gets you better scores. But unltimatly, it's all just words if you can't deliver on ice.
Maybe nate silver will chime in now that he's given up politics. But history has proven that the chances of anyone who hasn't medaled at worlds making the oly podium are slim to none. Usually the podium is crowded with former world champions. Ashley is a very long shot to medal.
Hughes only had one World bronze going into 2002 and won gold. I dont think the result in 2002 would have been any different had she been 4th at the 2001 Worlds.
Kerrigan had been 5th at the 93 Worlds and very nearly won gold, and should have. Although she had alot of World and Olympic medals from the distant past to aid her reputation still.
Shizuka had only 1 top 7 finish at Worlds going into the 2006 Olympics and won gold.
Her best bet is to come up with two AMAZING programs that highlight all of her strengths and hide her weaknesses. Even with that, and a 3flip/3toe (sp) + 2axel/3toe (lp) she will need mistakes from others. None of the top three are known for their consistency, though. I honestly think that just having two memorable programs to set her apart is the best strategy and gives Ashley a fighting chance at sneaking in for a medal in the big competitions.
I won't attack this from the other end (what would Ashley's chances be if Hughes had gone to sic with less success than she did?) as it's kinda counter productive, but I will elaborate on what I said. Possibility and probability are not the same.
If Ashely wants to pull off an historic upset ala Hughes, than she has to build the momentum that Hughes built going into the games. 1. She needs to narrowly lose a gp event to Kim and have the press kick up a big fuss claiming she "wuz robbed" 2. She needs to beat both Kim and Caro and/or Mao at another gp event a week later. 3. She needs to medal at the GPF again, preferably with more "wuz robbed" hype after finishing behind a sloppy Kim, Mao and Caro . Etc... The maybe she can overcome the fact that unlike Hughes, she didn't medal at worlds and hasn't made every world team she tried for.
Kerrigan? Seriously? Kerrigan was like Sasha. Despite almost never skating a clean LP ever, she medaled at almost every single international event she competed in, always taken as a medal contender by the judges despite being wildly inconsistent. Ashley didn't go to 2013 worlds hyped as the one to beat, and easily win the sp, now did she.
And unlike Ashley, shiz is a world champion, and according to the Isu lipinski rule, that can never be taken away from her!
I don't think it's inconceivable that she could make the Olympic podium. Gold, no. Had Joannie Rochette ever made the World podium? I can't remember. Mirai came very close without ever having been to World's. For Ashley to have a shot at a medal, she would have to skate clean and up her tech content and would also have to benefit from someone else's mistake. That's how I see it.
Rochette won the silver at 2009 Worlds.
Joanne was 1. World medalist 2. Skating at home 3. Hyped as podium material for years.
Ashley ticks none of these boxes.
4th was amazing for mirai. But she didn't medal, did she.
This. Furthermore, Ashley is not the same calibre as Joanne was. I believe is was a fairly commonly held idea that Joanne had both the technical and artistic ability to be on the World / Olympic podium if she could only get her head together. That is, IMHO, quite different from someone who appears to have her head together but doesn't have the technical content or consistently superior artistic programs. Ashley is very good at many things, but she isn't the best at anything. Joanne arguably had the best 3 sal of her era, she had a amazing lutz on an outside edge, she had fabulous skating skills with strong deep edges and great speed. Her program choreography was in the top group and she had transitions to die for.
Reading my posts, it sounds like I don't like Ashley. I do enjoy her on TV, and I would be thrilled if she pulled an upset and ended up on the podium. I just wouldn't bet money on it happening.
ITA. I'd also add that Ashley has been in the top five at the last two World Championships, which isn't a medal, but she still managed to be just outside of the podium. She also didn't have the skates of her life at those competitions either. Her 2013 LP at Worlds was probably the worst one of the season.
Kim, Kostner, Asada, and Wagner also aren't models of consistency, and I imagine at least one of them will falter. Depending on how the competition goes, I don't think it's that unrealistic for Wagner (or Murakami) to get 3rd and wouldn't consider it a huge upset. Gold or silver yes, but not bronze. If she skates well and the competition isn't top notch, I see Ashley in the 3rd-6th range. A medal isn't something I'd bet on, but I wouldn't write it off either.
Wagner fell twice in the LP at both the GPF and at Nationals last season. The Worlds LP certainly was not the worst of the season despite the fluke fall on her footwork.
I think this is a fair assessment. The last two Worlds, she was 4th and 5th, so top 6 at the Olympics seems totally doable. Her best senior international finish was winning 4 Continents (over Asada) in 2012. When it comes to reputation judging, I wonder how the judges weigh a 4CC title vs a World bronze.
I'm surprised some are saying Kim is not a model of consistency. It really doesn't get any more consistent that Kim. Wagner isn't even close. I do think she could sneak in a bronze if she has a skate of her lifetime and Asada falters. I actually think Gold might have equal chances for that medal, depending on how her season unfolds.
Oops, for some reason I had it in my mind that she fell once in each of those programs. I guess her 2013 Worlds LP stands out to me as a particularly bad performance. She just totally ran out of steam.
Kim's Olympic performance was absolutely stellar, but I don't think she's been that consistent if you look at her career as a whole and what she's capable of achieving. But she does has more room for mistakes compared to someone like Wagner and would beat her easily if she skates decently.
I also agree that Gracie could potentially have the same outside shot at bronze.
I think Ashley and Gracie have some shot at a Olympic Medal, so do Adelina, Liza Kaetlyn and Kanako. I think it's likely one of these will end of on the podium. We've never seen a World podium repeat as an Olympic podium. One of Mao/YuNa/Caro will likely not be at her best for whatever reason.
I think the only reason some would say Kim is not totally consistent is she has won lost 4 of the World titles since 2007 and she really should have won all of them skating anywhere near her potential. Still compared to others of her era she is the most consistent, and she probably has never made enough mistakes to lose to someone like Wagner even at Wagner's absolute best. Unless Wagner improves, hence what this thread is about.
Kim is 100% lock for a medal of some color (and probably 80% likely to win). Even not at her best she still cant be challenged by anyone besides Asada or Kostner. However it is possible either Kostner (Olympic history demons) or Asada (inconsistent, insane jump layout) could bomb themselves out of a medal.
Never? She has lost the LP to freaking Rachael Flatt before. Looking at the way she skated at the last Worlds, she looks invincible, but there have been times in her career where she seemed quite beatable. Adam Rippon, who trained with her, said he'd never seen her skate her LP clean until the Olympics. It requires an a great amount of focus, ambition and health to peak at the Olympics, YuNa has by far the greatest scoring potential, but that doesn't mean she is guarenteed to win.
Did she lose to Flatt at Skate America? No. She still beat her by over 15 points. So she did not even come close to making enough mistakes over 2 programs to lose to the "freaking Flatt". The fact is she has not lost to anyone besides Asada, Kostner, or Ando (and you know Ando is no threat for the 2014 Games) since Skate Canada 2006, so that makes her a 100% lock for a medal. There are only 2 skaters in the field who have a chance to beat her even on her worst day. She might not be a lock to win, but her being right off the podium is an impossability.
But for the first two years as a senior skater she was battling serious injuries so she was more unlucky than inconsistent. Some skaters never could have even competed at 07 and 08 worlds with Yuna's injuries and yet she still managed to medal.
Somewhat true but she missed the triple lutz twice at both the 2007 and 2008 Worlds. She lands even one of the two and she wins easily both times. That is her best jump. I don't think it can be explained away by just injury.
Still her World title defeats were largely determined by either injury (2007 and 2008) and complete loss of motivation (2010 and 2011). When she is motivated and healthy she is unchallengable virtually.
Welcome to FSU where we make up our own definitions to words! Kim is "inconsistent" because she hasn't won every single event she entered. Apparently, anyone who isn't Sonja feaking Henie is "inconsistent".
COP has produced 6 different ladies world champions in 9 years, and even the 3 ladies who managed to win twice each failed to defend their titles having to regain them instead. Compared to 6.0 and especially figures, COP promotes inconsistency in results. Kim has medaled every single time she shows up and no one else of this era has done that. She's the clock everyone's watch is set by.
I know adam said that, and maybe he said true. but It was a bit strage fact to me, because I had seen in that season kim had many clean run-through including her first GPS, TEB. but according to him, Kim could have clean run throughs easily in practice at competitions, but she could not have in criket club(practice ice rink). that was a bit strange
in matters of her consistency, In last season, She had three competitions and had 2 clean SP / 2 clean FS. even numbers of clean programs is more than number of flawed programs. even I don't think there was top skaters who even participate in GPS, GPF and many competitions than kim, had more clean programs than her in the last season. If there is users who don't think kim is not consistency than other skaters, then I wonder which top skater - In Top 10 at this Worlds - do they think is more consistency than her right now? It is not to say they are wrong, just I wonder
Ashley is not one of my favourite skaters by any stretch. It's not that I don't like her or enjoy watching her it's just that there are others I enjoy watching more. Such as Asada, Suzuki, Kostner, Ando, Kim & Gedvanashvili.
BUT I will say that her SP for last season (The red violin) was one of my favourites. It had very clean lines & the stucture of the programe (doing two of the three jumping elements later) was very good.
I just don't have any faith in the judges at an Olympic Games. I really feel (And I know I'm going to get MASSIVE heat for this) that the US ladies get marked or placed higher than some who skate better on the night because they are American. Hughes SP in 02' & Flatt SP in 2010. Also Meissner in SP in 06'.
This has also happened at the Worlds. I remember the Eurosport commentators at the 2009 Worlds being pretty angry with the marks Flatt & Czisny got in their SP's.
I really felt at the World's this year that Ashley was very slow in her free skate & did not hold on to the landings of her jumps as well as she had in the past yet she still got a great mark.