US World team: chances to medal and keep spots for next year

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Marco, Feb 1, 2011.

  1. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    They weren't at Nationals and they won't be at the Asian Winter Games. I'm beginning to doubt that they will be at World's.
  2. SamuraiK

    SamuraiK Well-Known Member

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    The Zhangs arent on the entries list for 4CC . I think is safe to say they are out for the season. And China will lose the 3rd spot in Pairs too :(:(
  3. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Where did you see an entries list?
  4. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Last edited: Feb 3, 2011
  5. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I believe in the Zhangs thread, started by JudgeJudy in the Trash Can, someone posted a quote by Yao Bin that the Zhangs were definitely out for the season.
  6. ssmith17

    ssmith17 Member

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    Its 13 or better.
    PeterG and (deleted member) like this.
  7. lukeanthony

    lukeanthony New Member

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    My prediction is Czisny will win the short program, then BOMB in the long program.
  8. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    All things being equal which they never are, the only two skaters who should beat Czisny are Kim and Asada, though I would expect that a clean Ando would bump Alissa due to technical content, though Alissa SHOULD destroy Miki on several of the PC components, but won't. Really no other lady is in the same class as these skaters though I'm sure Kostner will be imposed upon us per usual.
  9. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Just like she won the short program and then BOMBED at the Grand Prix Final.

    Oh, wait...that didn't happen.
  10. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah actually, she's had more issues with her SHORT program this season than her FS, so I don't see that happening.
  11. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Mostly agree although I'm dying to know what Kim will do, debuting at Worlds and all. ETA: http://www.universalsports.com/news/article/newsid=516735.html Interview with Kim sounds positive anyway

    What does Kostner being imposed on us mean?
  12. geod2

    geod2 New Member

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    I wondered about that, too.
    A replay of a time when her scores were often seemingly held up?
    I recall some complaints on the board about it..
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2011
  13. geod2

    geod2 New Member

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    I'm a bit of an Leonova uber so I can't be objective. I hope she finishes on the podium, but probably not.
    If I were being objective, to me Kostner is the sleeper. She had a pretty consistent season even with a knee injury and impaired jump arsenal.

    Could it be similar to the lack of love from Rachael from some fans??
    But, obviously I hope she hits her peak at Worlds.
    The last impression she left in Int'l competition was GPF....ouch!

    I agree.
    When I look at the combinations of placements needed to equal 13 for the 2 U.S. Ladies, and based on their season and current level of fitness (physically and emotionally)
    the odds of success look like about 80%. That's far easier to predict than a medal for either one.
    IMO the U.S will get the 3 spots back and possibly no Ladies medals....I think a lot of U.S. fans would be really happy with that outcome....
    Alissa and Rachael have a lot of momentum and should hit the ice with every bit of confidence.

    -
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2011
  14. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think Kostner w/ a 3t-3t and a 3l in the SP is a force to be reckoned with, and that will get her into the final group, but even w/o a 3f and 3z, she's still a headcase.

    I for one would still be happy without a medal for US ladies, as long as they get 3 spots back for 2012.

    I think Rachael is capable of putting the season behind her as she heads to Worlds and do what she does best- be consistent. If Czisny gets 4th behind all of Mao, YuNa and Miki, Rachael only needs 9th for 13 pts. Very doable
  15. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    I mean that Kostner's PCS scores are usually inflated based on the sole fact that she skates with a lot of speed, never mind the fact that she has absolutely no security or upper body control, making her appear as if she is about to fall over at any minute. Add to that poor carriage (which could categorized under body control but I think distinctive in the case of basic stroking as she is just fundamentally "bent over" with slouched shoulders and terrible arms), marginal difficulty, historically pedestrian choreography (though I will admit that this season is an improvement) and a lack of technical difficulty (this season) and this is what I mean with Kostner "being imposed" upon us.
  16. geod2

    geod2 New Member

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    No need to hold back, now....tell us how you really feel! :)

    BTW, I agree with you about Kostner, but judges don't seem to mind .... if forced to choose, I'd rather watch Flatt.
    Maximillian and (deleted member) like this.
  17. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    Sorry but I reached my tipping point with Kostner's scores around 2008 Worlds and have been a "tad" vocal about them ever since.
  18. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    I like the men team, but I'm not really optimistic.
    Richard Dornbush is nothing more than a Joubert without quad, and even more unpolished.
    Ross Miner is a nice skater, but even at his best, I doubt he will be in the top 8.
    Ryan Bradley can do really well, but he also can bomb. But I hope he is working hard for those Worlds now that he is National champion.

    We will see. ;)
  19. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Give Dornbush time to grow. He's almost 8 years younger than Joubert so he could end up a much better all around skater than Joubert.
  20. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    I hate Kostner's outstretched arms, as if she is reaching for a skyhook to help her stay on her feet when she jumps.
  21. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    LOL, I give him time !
    But he is in the team this year, and the question is about the World team for this year ! ;)
  22. query5

    query5 New Member

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    personally i don't care who wins or not, no skin off of me,
    yes it would be nice if alissa medal, d/w wins, but not so what--life goes on.
    who really cares about a sport that is rigged.-like [put up because of OGM /or just because the federation wants them.
    you don't say cliqueish. figure skating is.

    anyway-unlrelated most medalist are in the U.s from SC of New York, Sc of Boston, BRoadmoor-Detroit Sc, now artic blades/
    that is where most of the OGM medalist are. so the skaters from those clubs tend to quietly behind the scenes push them forward and overlook their skaters from their clubs mistakes and point out others from skaters that don't got to those clubs.

    St Morits-ogm-kristi
    penisula ogm-brian boitano
    dupage-evan
  23. query5

    query5 New Member

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    to bad you don't get it--you don't like the truth and can't handle it.
    when it slaps you in the face. you redline people you don't like and can't handle-so what just proves me right when i state the facts.

    sarah overlook urs-sc of new york,
    tara overlook urs-detroit sc.
    yep-your sports needs help and you don't want to admit that you need it, you don't want to admit that anything is wrong. keep burying it with social media .too bad
    the sport is nice to watch but lousy at competition-with the scores.
  24. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    Interesting view. I don't see the similarity. I think Dornbush is more versatile. Brian has stated that he is not comfortable being anybody but himself in his programs, and I consider it limiting; Dornbush is willing to step out of himself, which promises more interesting programs. Whether he gets Joubert's quads and star power, remains to be seen. Before this year I would have said No, but seeing him at Nationals convinced me he does have the ability to hold attention ( as well as great speed, good SS and charm). I think the next two years are going to be crucial for him- if he keeps improving he can achieve a lot.
    I think Dornbush, if he skates well, has the best scoring potential out of the 3 people going- but maintaining 3 spots would take a minor miracle. Which will make next year very tough for the US Men.

    Dance is a shoe- in, and Ladies have a chance at 3 spots- I'll be rooting for that like crazy.
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2011
  25. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I guess I'm turning into a Dorny uber, so I need to respond. :p

    Dornbush has high, tight, terrific jumps [and no real weakness on any particular jump - toe or edge], great basics, speed, connections, better concentration on spins and non-jump elements, and steadier coach-pupil relationship than Joubert has. I also see him doing a better job 'getting into character' on the ice. Joubert has been only hamming it up for years now.

    And he's only 19.

    Also, I know he's working on a Quad and considering the size of his jumps, it's only a matter of time if he keeps going the way he is
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. I actually don't see too many similarities with Joubert beyond the big jumps. Dornbush is quite the good spinner, already has more transitions than Joubert, isn't stupid about leaving easy points off the table by not filling out his combination opportunities, and really gets into character in his programs. Sure he may not be super artistic yet, but you can't say he isn't trying to get into character in his FS with all that silly choreo. Joubert, otoh, often abandons his choreography or performs it half-heartedly when things aren't going his way.

    Also, considering Joubert has won worlds, medaled frequently at others, and has been on the European podium every time he's competed means he's a pretty good skater. I know he's probably past his prime now, but Richard should not be ashamed to be compared to Joubert especially because the way I see it he is, or has all the tools to be, a much more well-rounded skater than Joubert.

    Not everyone can pull off the flowy artistic style that Weir, Chan, and Rippon have, and quite frankly I'd see Richard as pretty silly to try channeling that because I think it would look cheesy on him. He has charisma though and knows how to make it work for him. This and his big jumps remind me a bit of Tomas Verner, although Richard seems to be consistent which is the one thing that always hurt Tomas.
  27. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    I can't say I disagree. Dornbush seems to be quite a musical skater and musicality never struck me as one of Joubert's strongest characteristics. And he already has more ease and flow on the footwork that Brian ever had.

    Absolutely and while not being that young anymore, his competitive experience, maturity of skating and hard jumps would still entitle him to a spot on the world podium whereas Richard needs to grow in the way he presents himself on the ice especially when I think of his short program.

    Verner was the first to come into my mind when I saw Richard perform his Sherlock program, sweet, funny and adorable like Tomas. In a couple of other respects though, such as physique and posture, I associated him with Tim Goebel rather than any other skater.
  28. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Well, like you say, he's more musical than Joubert. I think that would definitely make him more musical than Goebel. ;) And I agree that his SP is the weaker of the 2 programs.

    Watching Richard spin though, his spins are still done with more ease and flow than Goebel's. When CoP was introduced and Goebel began to change positions in his sit spin, he used to have a look of pain on his face. Still, I don't mind the comparison to Goebel: After all, Goebel is an Olympic medalist and won 2 silver medals @ Worlds only behind probably the 2 biggest male skaters of the past decade - Yagudin and Plushenko
  29. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Definitely see the resemblance to Goebel, although Richard is far more musical. His body build and posture definitely closer to Goebel than Joubert or Verner, who appear to be taller and bigger boned than Richard. Although considering his age I guess Richard could still be growing.
  30. bek

    bek Guest

    I really do hope Dornbush works on his posture because it is something I don't like about his skating, and I never thought Joubert had bad posture. But of all the US men, I think he has the most long term potential at this point. I mean I adore Abbott's skating but if Jeremy hasn't learned to compete by now...
  31. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Dornbush gives me a strong Brezina vibe in terms of jumping and skating style. Hope he can break out like Brezina did last season.
  32. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    He's a much faster spinner than Brezina and less bland as well. Based on what we've seen this season with Brezina, when he doesn't hit the big jumps he falls from great to pretty mediocre quickly. Of course he is very young and has time to develop the rest of his skating, and his jumps are already first rate, but I personally think Richard has more charisma and better choreo, spins, and footwork. Also, I think Brezina's slight build probably plays a role in his stamina issues, as last season I remember he often ran out of steam in the last minute or so of his program which resulted in some costly errors, and this was before his injury. Richard is a bit sturdier than Brezina and seems to have no stamina issues at all.
  33. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Now that Lepisto is out, the US ladies' chance of regaining that 3rd spot is just a little higher.

    If everyone is on or close to clean, I think the placement should be:

    Kim / Ando / Asada
    Czisny/Kostner
    Murakami/Korpi
    Flatt

    There is of course a good chance that Kostner and Korpi won't deliver, or won't both deliver. There is also a chance that Czisny won't deliver :drama:.

    Would love it if next year's team was Czisny, Nagasu and Wagner, and then Zawakzki, just missing out on world team again, moves to Carroll or Arutunian.
  34. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Cynthia could skate very well at worlds like she did last year. I can see Makarova being among top ten also. And I can see Joshi HELGESSON in top twelve.
  35. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Even if Cynthia skates well she will lose to Czisny for sure if Alissa also does. Flatt and Cynthia both skating well. Not really sure how that would go, if Rachael doesnt do a triple-triple then Cynthia could probably come out ahead actually, but Flatt is way more likely to skate clean. Makarova similar statements apply, except she is much more likely to skate clean or cleaner than Phaneuf, but even if she does even easier for even Flatt to beat.
  36. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    I'm not so sure Cynthia loses a head to head with Alissa. Her jumps will earn more GOE, and she has more of them, so that should counterbalance Alissa'a spin + PCS advantage.

    I think Cynthia could be the real dark horse for this years ladies field.
  37. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I think Phaneuf's skating is beautiful, but a clean Czisny is always going to get higher PCS than a clean Phaneuf.
  38. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^ I think Rachael will surprise. It's just a hunch; a 'feeling in my bones'. She's picked herself up w/ the new SP and skating with an overall different feeling that the judges should take note of. She has the elements down in EoE, it's getting stronger, and I'll wager that she's going to clear the last hurdle, put in a 3-3 which would increase her score a few points.

    I get the LP is less interesting. But, her jumps [3f especially] and some of her spins [camel, sit] just look better, more secure than they ever did. Throwing in the 2x-3l at 4CCs shows a commitment to upping her technical difficulty. She'll benefit from relaxed penalties on ur's.

    I'm not delusional. I don't think she'll medal but she could be as high as 4th if she's clean with 3-3s and Kostner flubs a few elements.