US World team: chances to medal and keep spots for next year

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Marco, Feb 1, 2011.

  1. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    In the ladies, Czisny and Flatt will / should be up against Kim, Asada, Ando, Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, (Lepisto?), Makarova, Leonova, Helgesson, Elene G. and Phaneuf in the final two groups.

    If Kim and the Japanese ladies bring their A game, Czisny's medal chances are slim, but a strong skate can perhaps put her 4th or 5th, depending on how Murakami, Kostner and Korpi skate. A clean / decent showing by Flatt can earn her a place in the bottom half of top 10, but I honestly don't see her cracking into top 6 again unless there is a major disaster from most of the top Euro ladies.

    Overall, I think medal chances for the ladies are not high, and chances to regain the third spot will depend on how the Europeans skate.

    In the men, Bradley, Dornbush and Miner will face 3 Japanese men, 2 French men, 2 Canadian men, 2 Czech men, and 2 to 3 other European men. Bradley has a very very outside chance at top 6, but only if he hits all 3 quads and the rest of his jumps, and Dornbush may have a Brezina moment. But overall it is most likely that US men will drop to 2 spots next year because of PCS. I don't even think there is an outside chance for any of the three to medal.

    In the pairs, Y&C and E&L will face one Chinese pair, one German pair, three Russian pairs, one Canadian pair and perhaps the Italian pair. No medal chances but they have an outside chance to have a third spot, but wil most likely just maintain 2 spots for next season. To be honest I believe a top 6 placement will already be a major accomplishment for either team.

    In the dance, D&W should have no problem with a top 2 placement, and the Shibs with a top 10. 3 dance spots should be quite safe.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. JerseySlore

    JerseySlore Active Member

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    IMO only ladies who have prayer of beating clean Czisny are equally perfect Kim, Asada, and Kostner with full arsenal of triples. I now it's a tall order for Czisny to recreate another clean long program, but it's unlikely all of the aforementioned three ladies will skate error-less. I think bronze is very doable for Czisny, and Flatt can easily place top 10. Chance is actually looking greater than ever since 2007.

    As for pair, I definitely expect S/S, V/T, K/S, P/T, and probably B/L to place ahead the Americans, but M/M and B/H are more or less on equal footing. If lucky, our pairs will bring three spots.

    I'm resigned to the fact that we will be down to two spots as far as men's discipline goes. But even with Abbott and Rippon, chance wouldn't be that great anyway. I hope Dornbush and Miner will make the most out of this experience and Bradely will end his competitive career on high note.

    I can't even bother to worry about Ice Dance with D/W being pretty much invincible so far and Shibs poised to become next big thing, even though neither is exactly my cup of tea.
     
  3. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

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    I think that the ladies are a huge puzzle because there are so damn many headcases, and trying to figure out which ones will hold it together at Worlds and which won't is a crapshoot.

    Of the ladies you listed, Kim, Asada, Ando, Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, (Lepisto?), Makarova, Leonova, Helgesson, Elene G. and Phaneuf, only Kim, Ando and Murakami seem more likely than not to deliver two relatively clean (one fall or pop) performances. I'd expect to see those three in the top 6. Who else joins them is a mystery, and I suspect that the answer would vary significantly if the competition was run a second or third time. They're that flakey. And IMO, Alissa is still in the flakey category, and Rachael (and Lepisto and Kostner) are all coming off of injuries, so that's more added to the mix.

    It will be interesting. I'm hoping that it won't be a splatfest.
     
  4. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I think that if Alissa skates clean, she'll definitely challenge for a medal. She won the GPF beating Ando, Murakami, Kostner, etc. Mao is a wild card, but obviously if she skates clean she'll podium. But Alissa definitely has a shot at a medal.

    I can't see Flatt higher than 7-10th place.

    As for pairs, they should keep two spots but a medal is beyond reach. Savchenko/Szolkowy, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Volosozhar/Trankov, Bazarova/Larionov and Pang/Tong are more than likely to be top 5, which means the highest the US pairs are likely to finish is 6th, and that's a long shot. Moore-Towers/Moscovitch are having a strong season, so they'll probably take that spot. They'll have to contend with Berton/Hottarek and Duhamel/Radford, I think.

    Men's unlikely for 3 spots. It was with Abbott and even more so now.
     
  5. Squibble

    Squibble New Member

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    I think the men have an outside shot at retaining three spots. Dornbush has the ninth highest Season's Best Score, and that was with a Junior program. One of the eight above him, Rippon, won't be at Worlds. The next three in the rankings, Reynolds, Abbott, and Mroz will not be there either. If Dornbush polishes his SP between now and then, he might finish about sixth or seventh, and so too might Bradley if he executes all of his planned elements properly. If they don't, it will not be the end of the world. It will just give the men next year's Nationals more incentive to finish in the Top Two.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2011
  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Miki Ando can beat a clean Czisny if she's clean as well. In Japan her PCS will be high enough and she gets good GOE on her jumps. I'd also say a clean Korpi has a shot at beating a clean Czisny just where she has a 7 triple FS and we all know her PCS can go through the roof when she skates well. Same for Lepisto, although her form is a question mark at this point. I'd throw Kanako in the mix as well, she has 7 triples and two 2as planned in her FS and will be skating on home ice.

    Clean Asada and Kim beating a clean Alissa is pretty much a given, although that may be a big ask considering Kim has been clean once in her senior career and will be competing for the first time at worlds, and Mao seemingly still has a lot of work to do. If Alissa is perfect and those two aren't, there is a chance she could beat them, but I don't see it happening.

    Then I'd group Ando, Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, and a healthy Lepisto in with Alissa in the sense that if they were all to go clean, the outcome would likely be very close and could go either way. So Alissa has 5 direct competitors really, and most of them, save Ando, are quite inconsistent. If Alissa has mistakes though, she'll be competing against Flatt's main competitors.

    Flatt I could see finishing as high as 4th behind Kim, Asada, and Ando if Murakami, Kostner, Korpi, Lepisto, and Alissa all have mistakes and she is clean. She'll have to be wary of Makarova, Leonova, and Phanuef, but I think a clean Rachael could probably edge all those girls out (save Cynthia maybe), and the chances of Rachael going clean are much higher than those of the other 3 going clean.

    Gede can be in the top 10 but I say she's only really competition for Flatt if Rachael has mistakes and she is on, and only competition for Alissa if Alissa bombs/semi-bombs (Elene beat Alissa at the 09 worlds).
     
  7. Domshabfan

    Domshabfan Searching for Cizeron's Instagram

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    Alissa can finish in top 3, but compettion could be tight with Kim, Ando, Murakami and possibly Asada. Japanese girls should be reasonably fired up since the competition is in japan. Next set will comprise of Carolina, Korpii, Makarova, Phanteuf, Leonova and Flatt. So gaining an extra spot could be tricky. They will defiently hold on to 2 spots.

    Mens, US is likely going to finish with 2 spots. Bradley :rolleyes:, could end up outside the top ten. Dornbush seems to be more reliable of the 3 that will compete at the worlds.

    Pairs: maintain 2 spots, Y/C and E/L are likely to finish between 7-12. They are good but there are lots of enough good teams to beat them.

    Ice dance: D/W will medal and Shibutanis will finish between 7 -10 ensuring 3 spots. Top 3, P/B:cheer:, D/W, V/M. 4-5: B/S(RUS), C/P(Can). 6-10: Kerrs(GBR), I/K(RUS:cheer:), Shibutanis(USA), F/S(ITA), W/P(CAN). So, USA and CAN should get 3 spots, Russia may gain an additional spot.
     
  8. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

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    I wonder how Czisny and Bradley will succeed as the US National champions, as there seems to have been a curse in recent years, LOL?

    It is very likely that in men´s discipline USA will lose at least the third spot and in ladies´ discipline USA may not get a third spot, actually it may even lose one spot. But I sure hope to be wrong!!! So surprising that Abbott is not in the team. Now he apparently tried to peak at Worlds and this happened to him, I´m very sad for him. Maybe he was just too relaxed now that Lysacek is not competing? I´m also surprised about Mroz not making the team.
     
  9. ryanbfan

    ryanbfan Active Member

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    I have to agree with the above person on the Mens/Spots discussion...

    And it's not like we have a big slump coming in our Mens skating. We could lose the 3 spots this year but gain them back in Worlds 2012. It's not Olympic 'year' or anything either.
     
  10. Extranjera

    Extranjera New Member

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    US world team is so unexpected :eek: I wish I could watch Mirai at Worlds, but I'm also happy US Nationals was a TRUE competition, and judges gave spots skaters who were the best, not the ones with the biggest names.

    About medals: i think Czisny can medal ONLY if Ando, Kanako or/and Asada make serious mistakes, otherwise I'm sure Kim and two japanese skaters will be on the podium. And even if two japanese skaters make mistake, then Czisny has to face Kostner, Lepisto (?), Korpi , Leonova and Makarova, so it won't be easy thing to do. I cross finger for her though, this season she proved she's a true fighter

    I don't see any chances for US men to medal in Tokyo. Too strong rivals. I think Chan will win and Kozuka & Takahashi will be 2nd and 3rd
     
  11. Twilight1

    Twilight1 Well-Known Member

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    I don't know if it is a given that the US will get 3 teams in ice dance, IF V&M go, the Shib's still have other good teams to compete against. I am interested to see where they stack up against W&P from Canada at the 4CC's. If they get beaten by W&P then a top 10 won't happen for them IMHO but they could still place 11th. If they place 11th, D&W have to win for the US to get their 3 spots.

    Medal contenders will be V&M, D&W, P&B and the Kerr's, B&S and I&K mixed in there somewhere and definite dark horses to medal. After that, there are F&S, R&T, C&P and W&P. (I really think that W&P have made enough growth that they could place 10th but if they are beaten by the Shib's... then the Shib's round of the top 10)

    I doubt that the combined totals for the pairs and men will get 3 slots to World's next year. Ladies it is possible. I wish the best to Czisny.
     
  12. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    The only reason RF got a spot is because she's a big name! Her skate wasn't worthy, IMO.
     
  13. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    Ladies - IF the following ladies flop, the USA stands an outside chance at medaling: Kim, Asada, Murakami, Ando, Meier, Korpii, Kostner

    Men - Dornbusch or Miner may make top 10. (I love Ryan but I doubt that int'l judges care for Buggle Boy & Crazy Conductor programs.) IF the following men flop, an American may step on the podium: Chan, Takahashi, Kozuka, Oda, Amodio, Joubert, Verner

    Pairs - The "Great Skating Wall of China" and Savchenko/Szolkowy and all 3 Russian teams will mean that the top US and Canadian pairs will be duking it out for 8th place.

    Dance - HERE WE CAN SPARKLE. I look to Davis/White AND the Shib Sibs to step onto the podium, along with a Canadian team (be it V/M or C/P) or P/B of France.

    Hence, I predict a total of two medals for the USA, at very best case; one medal most likely.
     
  14. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    :lol: Shibutanis on the podium? Did you just start watching skating a week ago? That's not how things work, dear. :rofl: Besides, their FD is just a snore, despite their technical prowess.

    Our men have as good a chance as anyone outside of the Japanese team, Amodio, Verner, and Chan. I rewatched Dornbush's skate today, and OMG. Miner too. Our US men's team is amazing. :cheer: I bet Shawn Sawyer ends up in top 10 also. It will be very difficult to maintain 3 spots, but that's how it would have been anyway. Abbott, Rippon, and Mroz were no surer bets IMO.

    Pairs hasn't changed too much- swap out Mukhortova for Volosozhar and D/D and L/H for MT/M and D/R and we're looking at the same scenario as last year minus Shen/Zhao. Berton/Hotarek and Hausch/Wende have stepped it up a little. Only other variable is the Zhangs and whether he is recovered from the finger thing. Our teams are very nice and I'll be proud of them even if they only finish 11th and 12th, though I think they could probably do a little better than that.

    Ladies- who knows.

    I think based on Nationals, every US member was the correct selection for the team.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2011
  15. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    The Shibutanis already beat W/P at Skate America, by 2.5 points.
     
  16. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Weaver/Poje got a bit of a reputation boost by making the GPF. Canada potentially has 3 top 10 teams now, and US has 2 or so. Chock/Zuerlein are probably just outside of top 10 this year. Tough to call how it will all play out..
     
  17. Seerek

    Seerek Well-Known Member

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    Pairs - Pang/Tong, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Volosozhar/Trankov, Kawaguti/Smirnov and Bazarova/Larionov are out of reach... everyone else including Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Berton/Hotarek, Duhamel/Radford, and Hausch/Wende are within reach...

    Men - I expect Dornbush to be the highest finisher and see him only behind Chan, Takahashi, Oda, Kozuka for sure and competing well vs. Verner, Joubert and Amodio (so anywhere from 5th-8th). Miner and Bradley are in the next tier competing against Contesti, Sawyer, Gachinski/Menshov, Brezina, Van Der Perren, Fernandez...

    Ladies - Czisny should be in the medal hunt but she'll need to be relatively clean with no downgrades in both programs. Rachael Flatt will likely be in the next tier competing alongside Korpi, Makarova, Leonova, Phaneuf, Helgesson(s), Vannut(?)

    Dance - Davis/White probably are the gold medal favourites, helping to keep 3 spots.
     
  18. wonderlen

    wonderlen New Member

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    She barely beats Ando, Murakami and Kostner. Ando had a fall and downgrade on SP, Murakami has a downgrade/poped jumps and Kostner has a few wobbles and not even attempting the 3Flip or 3Lutz. Question is can Alissa handle the weight of the whole world?? She is going as a GPF champ and US champ and no doubt she will be on the spot light along with Kim and japanese ladies. And we all know how the NBC will hype and trash a skaters I say Kim and Asada can get away with one mistake (fall or pop) and a minor wobbles, and still be on the podium.
     
  19. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    Absolutely possible. Huge sudden shifts up or down are possible under new scoring system. And the Shibs have already been on a G-P event podium, beating W/P. They've been highly scored by int'l judges. Wait and see.
     
  20. attyfan

    attyfan Well-Known Member

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    Does getting 3 spots require combined placements of less than 13, or combined placements of 13 or better? Curious if Shibs getting 11th and DW getting silver will be enough for 3 spots.
     
  21. wonderlen

    wonderlen New Member

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    Has to combined placements of 13 or lower.
     
  22. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    If W/P had beaten one of the top teams at the GPF, they might have gotten a 'reputation' boost. But the only team they beat was Hoffmann/Zavozin. Last year, Cappellini/Lanotte went to the GPF, but didn't benefit from it.

    Aren't you forgetting Samuelson/Bates? They will be back next year, and the US will have 3 top teams again.
     
  23. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I guess I'm more optimistic than a lot of you -

    Ladies: I see Czisny as a definite medal threat. Ando may be the biggest gold-medal threat depending on what shape Mao and YuNa are in. But I think Czisny will be up there with them. And I don't think Euro Ladies or Murakami are as a big a threat to Czisny as some of you are making them out to be. Did anyone see Korpi, Kostner, Makarova, Leonova at Euros?

    I also don't get the lack of love by Int'l judges for Flatt that some are supposing - she beat Kostner and Murakami in the LPs this Fall on the GP series while 1) injured 2) w/ no 3-3s, and 3) downgrades. She's ditched the crap SP for what some are arguing is a much better / more passionate program to EoE, too. She was practicing 7 triple practice runthroughs of the LP at nats, so I'd say her chances are bright

    :confused:

    Great shot for 3 spots for 2012 IMO.

    Men: I'm under no illusion that we'll keep 3 spots for '12. I just would like to see Dornbush [new uber here] go out and kick a$$. I have no expectations for Bradley and Miner. Dornbush and Miner just need to get the experience and go forward towards 2014, and hell, 2018!

    It will be interesting to see who the USFSA chooses to promote as 'anchor': Bradley who's got to be on the verge of retiring, or a hot up-and-comer like Dornbush.

    Pairs: Better than in recent years. No medals, but outside shot at 3 spots for 2012. Botth Y/C and E/L would have to bring their A-Game and both hope to pick off Moore/ Towers - Moscovitch and T/T in JPN. Tall order and unlikely, but I'm happy with the state of US pairs these days.

    Ice Dance: Least dramatic. D/W will medal and likely silver, maybe Gold. S/S are a great couple and should get top 10. 3 spots for 2012
     
  24. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    The combined placements have to add up to 13 or less. So if the Shibs finish 11th, D/W only have to come in 2nd to maintain 3 spots. Russia only has 2 entries in dance at worlds, so R/T won't be there. I expect the top 3 to be V/M, D/W and P/B in some order, with the next tier probably consisting of I/K (who were great at Euros but inconsistent on the GP), the Kerrs (lost training time due to injury), F/S (inconsistent this year), C/P and B/S. I think the Shibs could challenge to get into this group.

    I think if the US ladies both skate their best, 3 spots is definitely within reach. Go Alissa!
     
  25. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    Right now I think that Pairs could turn out something like this:

    1. Savchenko / Szolkowy
    2. Kawaguti / Smirnov
    3. Pang / Tong or Volosozhar / Trankov
    4. Pang / Tong or Volosozhar / Trankov
    5. Bazarova / Larionov
    6. Moore-Towers / Moskovich
    7. Yankowskas / Coughlin
    8. Evora / Ladwig or Takahashi / Tran
    9. Evora / Ladwig or Takahashi / Tran
    10. Berton / Hotarek

    However, I don't know who's on the Chinese team or whether Volosozhar / Trankov will actually go to World's.

    Note to skategods: This is pure speculation on my part. I am not saying this is how I want it to turn out.
     
  26. Twilight1

    Twilight1 Well-Known Member

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    Nomad don't forget that the 2nd ranked Canuck team, definite possibility that they can place in top 10 for pairs

    I don't really take the results of at home advantage, for the result with Shib's and W&P. I am more interested in 4CC's in a neutral country and the result there.

    At 4 CC's I see, V&M or D&W in 1-2 (either order), 3rd C&P, 4th/5th Shib's or W&P. My mistake on the point total, I thought it was less than 13 not 13 and lower. US will definitely get 3 teams to World's next year then so long as no disaster happens.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2011
  27. Kasey

    Kasey Loving on babies!

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    99% that V/T will be at worlds (they are scheduled at Mont Blanc trophy in February to get the required minimum score). U.S. pairs with outside chance at 3 slots next year, if all the stars align.

    Love the folks thinking that Elene G. is such a threat to Alissa (or even Racheal). Um, yeah, right. Ladies has probably the largest number of headcases, as well as usually solid but occasional headcase skaters. Anything, but ANYTHING, could happen.

    Mens has it's fair share of headcases as well. With the exception of Chan, I don't think anyone is a lock for the podium, or even top 5. I agree with those who think Dornbush will be the top U.S. finisher, although would be happy if Bradley surprised me (yet again). Total crapshoot on whether 3 spots are held.

    Dance is pretty safe, in terms of U.S. spots.
     
  28. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    I was talking about Worlds 2011, which they will not be attending. I'm pretty sure that's what this thread is about. So I deliberately "forgot" S/B. :rofl:
     
  29. query5

    query5 New Member

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    i think only the dance has the losely term lock on 3 spots.
    i would prefer d/w 1st no lower than 2nd with v/m 2nd, p/b 3rd-4th, b/s 3-4 and kerrs 6th.
    i would prefer shibs 7th, i/k 8th, c/p-9th -but i think those 3 would switch and maybe f/s 10 or crashing 7th. so that leaves even if d/w finishes 2nd and shibs 9th or 10th they still have 3.
    the ladies has a decent shot at 3-it depends on how everyone skates.
    but i think alissa has a decent shot at 3rd with rachel outside at 6th, but skates well can finish higher, badly i see no lower than 9th.

    the pairs i see 1 or 2 spots, i see p/t, s/s, k/s the top 3. than 1-2 canadian, other russian team, ukr team, japanese team and sui han in all fighting for 4-9th spots. that leaves 10th and lower for us.

    men i see 1-8 already take by chan,3- japanese, two french,two czech men that leaves a russian, italian and the 3 us men fight for the spots of 8-10. for me that leaves two.
     
  30. stjeaskategym

    stjeaskategym Well-Known Member

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    Unless Hao Zhang's finger fell off, I can't imagine why Zhang/Zhang wouldn't be at Worlds, challenging for a top 5 finish. Duhamel/Radford and maybe Hausch/Wende also have a chance at top 10, depending how they and the others skate, but other than that, there's not much there. Still, many things will have to go their way for the US to get three spots... It'd be really surprising if it happens.