US Skaters Projection/Discussion for JGP Spots 2013-14

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Jan 30, 2013.

  1. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Ladies- Cesario is aging out, and its time for Hicks and Siraj to go senior...anyway, some configuration of the following-

    Angela Wang (possibly SGP) S9
    Hannah Miller (possibly SGP) S10
    Polina Edmunds- J1
    Barbie Long- J3
    Karen Chen- J4
    Mariah Bell- J2
    Amber Glenn- J5
    Tyler Pierce N1
    Ashley Cain S12
    Leah Keiser S-WD
    Kiri Baga S13


    Pairs- lots of teams aging out leaves us with the below assortment

    Denney/Frazier- S5 (maybe SGP)
    Aaron/Settlage- J3
    Liu/Perini- J4
    Belt/Johnson- J9
    Zaitsev/Stevens- N1
    Budd/Cheban- N2
    Middleton/Hennings- N3
    Takai/Johnson- N4

    Men- safe to say Brown and Farris will move up to SGP already, enough is enough. Yostanto and Choate aging out. Vincent Zhou sadly too young yet!

    Tomoki Hiwatashi- N1
    Shotaro Omori- J2
    Nathan Chen- J3
    Jimmy Ma- J4
    Jordan Moeller- J5
    Nix Phengsy- J7
    Brian Krentz- J8
    There will probably be a few spots after that, but I'd let the summer comps hash things out between novice medalists 2-4 (Melnyk, Vrdoljak, Samohin), and lower ranked juniors (Tomasello, Kaugars, Schetelich) assuming they are all age eligible.

    Dance- someone else can do this one
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2013
  2. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Hicks and Siraj could end up in JGP again if they don't do well enough at jr world. Of course, Hicks could get a host pick at SA, but then remember Armin, who had to wait until Evan withdrew. Hicks might opt for jGP instead of taking a chance
     
  3. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Ashley Cain I think would more likely be picked for Senior B events, she doesn't age out next season but she's skating on the senior level nationally now so I assume they'd give her a choice of JGP or Senior Bs, which she would then decide what she wants to do.

    Vanessa Lam doesn't have a very strong ISU SB this season as she only competed in one JGP where she wasn't at her best, but with her WS and tendency to skate well over the summer, she maybe could be in the mix for a Skate America spot (I am fairly certain Cesario will get one of the SA spots, but Lam could get the other). Any chance Lam could get a GP invite without a host pick? I think Sam definitely could if she does well at JW, and SA could give her a 2nd. If she medals at JW she might even be able to get 2 invites without SA, like Gracie did last season. If that happens, Wang and Miller could move up. I think they did enough on the JGP to get a senior GP assignment even without an outing to JW, likely it won't be enough for 2, but SA could give one of them a 2nd. Hicks and Siraj are in the same boat as Cesario, I think JW will determine if they go GP or JGP, a good showing should be able to get them a senior GP event.

    Baga I think would likely need stellar summer results to get a JGP, unless a bunch of spots open up because most of the other girls move up to senior GP.

    Also, this is going to sound dumb, but Shotari Omori is really, really good and he's less than 1 year younger than Farris and Brown, so any way he could do the senior GP next season? I mean, say he medals at JW? I know the field is really deep but I was really impressed with him at Nationals, particularly his SP, he is a complete and mature skater, and he has a 3a, so he would not look out of place on the GP at all. I know the spots are tight, but idk.
     
  4. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Also, Vanessa Lam may want to return to the JGP for her last season of ISU Junior eligibility (she turns 18 in June) if there's a slot for her and she monitors well this summer. Let's see how Hicks and Siraj (who shares the exact same birthday with Angela Wang) fare at Junior Worlds.

    Unfortunately, Middleton/Hennings have split - Elise is listed on icepartnersearch.com as of today. :( Max Settlage is lucky to have been born on July 1st! :)

    Tomasello turns 19 in May so he ages out (it's too bad he wasn't able to compete last summer and contend for one of the JGP slots... maybe even Lake Placid as an alternate).

    DANCE (aging out: Aldridge/Eaton J1, Heritage/Fast J7):
    Hawayek/Baker J2
    McNamara/Carpenter J3
    Moore/Klaber J4
    Pogrebinsky/Gudis J5
    Miller/MacMillan J6
    ETA: Parsons/Parsons (WD from Nationals due to injury)
    Lewis/Bye N1 - she'll be 13 & he 15 before July 1
    Patsis/Johnson N2 - she's 17 & he'll be 19 before July 1
    Wren/Shchepetov N3 - she's 14 & he's 15
    Nationals was last comp.: Rosinski/Jaffe J8 - Jacob deferred his entry to Brown University last year & plans on starting this fall
    Too young: Becker/Becker N4 - she'll turn 11 this month, he'll be 13 in March
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2013
  5. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    For dance, I'm sure the Parsons will be back on the JGP :)
     
  6. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    Good analysis, haribobo and Sylvia.

    I don't think very many ladies will move up to the senior GP this season. There's too many American ladies ahead of them and a limited number of GP spots. If Hicks medals at junior worlds, I could see her moving to Seniors. She did well enough nationally that USFS would likely politic for her. I wish I could see Wang moving up, but since she's not going to jr. worlds, she's probably stuck in juniors again. Siraj, IMO, will stay junior unless she has a spectacular showing at jr. worlds. Her world standing is very low and she hasn't had many international assignments the last two seasons. She's young enough to remain junior, and I suspect she will. Cesario, of course, has to move up. I really hope she does well enough at junior worlds, that she receives a GP or two next season. The 2014-15 season is likely when a lot of these ladies will make the jump to seniors since the field should open up because of retirements.

    I'm interested to see whether Cain gets a JGP assignment. S12 has been the lowest placement at seniors to get a JGP the last couple years, but there's a lot of young talent waiting to debut (e.g., Edmunds, Bell, Chen, Glenn) who deserve a shot more IMO. I think Baga is out of luck for JGP internationals next season. She's had a fine JGP run with lots of international experience--she could possibly get a Senior B for singles or focus on pairs.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2013
  7. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Baga/Toth have already been assigned to their first Senior B in pairs - Challenge Cup in The Hague next week. :)

    Caitlin Belt/Michael Johnson (J9 in pairs at Nationals) have split and are both listed on IPS.

    Is the required solo jump in the Junior Ladies & Men SP next season the loop? ETA: It should be because it was Lutz last season and flip this season.
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2013
  8. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    I'd rather see Cain than Glenn. Glenn has terrible skating skills and sloppy presentation, and Ashley's programs are always lovely. She's going to need to be landing that lutz better than she was at nationals, though.
     
  9. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone know if Josh and Jason are likely to make the top 24 WS list after the season is over? I'm just thinking regarding moving up to the GP, in case they don't make the cut for top 24 SB, you would hope they'd still move up to senior GP and be able to get at least one assignment each.
     
  10. misskarne

    misskarne Spirit. Focus. Ability. Tenacity. Aussie Grit.

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    Josh is at 22nd and Jason at 30th, I think? And they can both improve their SBs at JW, if Josh goes clean I would expect him to go beyond his 222 PB and two clean triple Axel'd programs from Jason should give him a 220+, I would think, but I'm not quite sure where that would put them on the list and obviously that would depend on two clean skates from both of them at their maximum technical content.
     
  11. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I think Ashley skates more like a senior and while I don't mind her getting jgp over Glenn, I kinda hope she'll do senior Bs as there will be no specific jump requirement in the short program to limit her.
     
  12. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    As far as World Rankings are concerned, both Jason and Josh will probably be out of the top 24. The problem is they are likely to be passed pointwise by skaters who are now lower on the rankings, simply because competing at Worlds gains much higher points than points earned at JW. Placing 9th at Worlds earns 517 points, 17 points more than JW gold, and 10th at Worlds earns 465 points, more than silver (450) and bronze (405) at JW. So even if they both make the podium at JW, they could drop lower in the rankings.

    Yes, they could both improve their SB scores. Josh can probably improve his SB ranking (now #22) and stay in the top 24 by adding 10 points to his current SB (218.69). But Jason, currently at #34 with 198.32, would have to improve his SB by more than 25 points. That won't be so easy to do unless he can nail the 3a consistently.
     
  13. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    You really think a score of 228 will be needed to make the top 24?? Who are you expecting to score that high that hasn't already between now and Worlds?
    Here is 22 to 34 currently:

    22 218.69 Joshua FARRIS --> capable of higher but might not need it to make cut.
    23 217.61 Sergei VORONOV --> most likely not at Worlds. Could maybe top at WTT.
    24 211.88 Alexander MAJOROV --> unlikely to top this score at Worlds, the best he's seen in awhile by a lot
    25 210.47 Adam RIPPON --> will not be at Worlds, only way he can pass is at WTT
    26 209.84 Artur GACHINSKI --> most likely not at Worlds. Could maybe top at WTT (between him and Voronov only 1 is likely to go).
    27 203.70 Denis TEN --> all the ability in the World, but his injuries and competitive history aren't encouraging
    28 203.65 Armin MAHBANOOZADEH --> not going to Worlds, WTT also unlikely.
    29 201.99 Andrei ROGOZINE --> 4CC score was for pretty perfect skates, unlikely to top.
    30 201.71 Misha GE --> with his content unlikely to move up after Worlds.
    31 199.94 Elladj BALDE --> not at Worlds, unlikely to be at WTT either.
    32 199.37 Zhan BUSH --> not at Worlds, unlikely to be at WTT.
    33 198.92 Ryuju HINO --> was pretty much perfect at JGPF to get this score. If he can add a quad, maybe move up a bit, but unlikely to the top 24.
    34 198.32 Jason BROWN --> capable of much higher but JW is his last chance.


    The only other noteworthy skaters below this point at Tomas Verner, 35, who could score big at Worlds but with the season he's had it seems unlikely. Boyang Jin, 38, will be at JW and has very ambitious content but pulling into top 24 will be hard even if he's perfect. Kolyada had a big score at Russian Junior Nats but has never seen anything like it internationally, and Samarin is also going to JW but is only 47 on the list currently.

    Therefore, I doubt 228 will be the cutoff score for the top 24. Most likely it will be about 212 as it is currently.
     
  14. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I think chances are good Farris will stay in top 24 seasons best. Brown's chance will depend on JW.
     
  15. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    As this is already July, I thought this might be time to discuss (more like speculate? :lol: ) possible candidates for JGP.
    With ladies - the usual problem of having too many girls over limited spots. I feel bad for these talented ladies. Some girls really deserve one but they are not high enough on the pecking order (US nationals + other factors) to get on the jgp. Girls like Bell and Edmunds ended up waiting a year last season (and thanks to last nationals they should get a spot now).
    I counted 13 girls who should be considered for JGP:
    Hicks, Siraj, Wang, Miller, Edmunds, Bell, Long, Chen,
    (Maybe not initially) Cain, Keiser, Lam, Glenn, Pierce

    I'm still hoping against hope Hicks or somebody might get SA so some other girl can get on JGP.

    With guys, the only sure-ins are probably the top placing junior men except Zhou; Tomoki could get a spot too. I can totally see someone not placing high last year getting a spot through summer comps, since Jason and Josh are moving up there are certainly spots open for an upcomer.

    ETA: I also think there should be a rule that says if two girls are similar in terms of accomplishments and train well in the summer, the girl who hasn't had a full season of JGP experience should get priority. (Just my wishful thinking though)
     
    Last edited: Jul 11, 2013
  16. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Here are the U.S. entries (bolded) for the first JGP in Latvia, along with the listed alternates (link to entries is cross-posted in the JGP Entries thread in Kiss and Cry and in the JGP info thread in GSD):

    LADIES
    Yasmin SIRAJ USA [S6 & JW11]
    Angela WANG [S9 & JGPF4]

    Mariah BELL J2
    Ashley CAIN S12
    Karen CHEN J4
    Polina EDMUNDS J1
    Leah KEISER S-wd/inj. & JGPF6
    Vanessa LAM S-wd/inj.
    Barbie LONG J3
    Hannah MILLER S10 & JGPF2

    MEN
    Jimmy MA USA [J4]
    Jordan MOELLER USA [J5]

    Nathan CHEN J3
    Tomoki HIWATASHI N1
    Spencer HOWE PC-J5
    Brian KRENTZ J8
    Oleksiy MELNYK N2
    Shotaro OMORI J2 & JW3
    Nix PHENGSY J7

    PAIRS
    Christina ZAITSEV / Ernie Utah STEVENS USA [N1]
    Madeline AARON / Max SETTLAGE J3
    Kaitlin BUDD / Nikita CHEBAN N2
    Sophia DAI / Jeffrey FISHMAN N5
    Chelsea LIU / Devin PERINI USA J4
    Aya TAKAI / Brian JOHNSON N4

    ICE DANCE
    Lorraine MCNAMARA / Quinn CARPENTER USA [J3 & JW9]
    Elliana POGREBINSKY / Ross GUDIS USA [J5]

    Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER J2 & JW7
    Chloe LEWIS / Logan BYE N1
    Holly MOORE / Daniel KLABER J4
    Rachel PARSONS / Michael PARSONS J-wd/inj.
    Tory PATSIS / Joseph JOHNSON USA N2
    Sammi WREN / Alexey SHCHEPETOV N3

    Courtney Hicks has been assigned to the Senior B in Salt Lake City so it appears she will not return to the JGP this season.

    ETA that Hawayek/Baker and Lewis/Bye will be the U.S. dance entries for the second JGP in Mexico City, according to this article posted in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/sho...-Summer-2013&p=3964715&viewfull=1#post3964715
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2013
  17. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    I really wish USFS had given a skater other than Yasmin a chance. So many girls have progressed so much, but Yasmin seems to be stuck or regressing, and has had many opportunities already.

    I also wish they had assigned more than 1 pair team; but then again, I'm not sure how many teams are even eligible. It's a weak field and it would be a great experience.
     
  18. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I have not seen Tyler Pierce's results in any summer comp (or perhaps I just missed seeing it). So if she's not doing summer comp (whatever the reason), my guess is no JGP for her. Keiser may get to go but so far her summer results are not as good as Lam's. Cain may have a jgp shot but her 12th at nationals may not help her. Lam will probably get a spot based on her summer comp.
    Anyway, all three girls have had JGP already. So my guess is Amber Glenn is the one girl who hasn't had JGP, deserves one and may not get one. (I hope Karen Chen doesn't have to go on the JGp waiting list but gets assigned right away, but maybe it's my wishful thinking)

    ETA: Ah, so Tyler Pierce is competing this weekend. Will see how she fares against the other JGP-eligible girls.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2013
  19. Debbie S

    Debbie S Well-Known Member

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    Pierce and Chen (and I believe Keiser, too) are competing at Glacier Falls this weekend. Glenn competed at Skate Detroit.

    Yes, it seems odd that USFS wouldn't take advantage of all their pairs spots. If each team gets to go to 2 comps b/c of not many age-eligible teams, then that would be good experience for them. (of course, that does get expensive for teams that may have no chance at the JGPF)
     
  20. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Thx, Debbie S.
    I just rewatched some of these ladies. I love Ashley Cain's and Yasmin's basic skating. Part of me hopes Ashley will get a senior B; inconsistent jumps aside, her skating is senior and world class.
    Despite being able to land the elements, I don't get the senior lady vibe from Lam. Perhaps JGP is still a good comp for her.

    eta: If the 1st jgp alternate list is anything to go by, Pierce is likely not among the first ones to be sent to JGP. :(
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2013
  21. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I didnt see Pierce in the jr ladies results in Glacier Falls, so my guess is no jgp for her -- for now.

    Would be nice if Ashley Shin is added to the isp pool but we will see what happens in the lp in Glacier falls
     
  22. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Keiser didn't look so great in Glacier Falls. Hope she does better next comp.
    I counted about 12 ladies who may end up with a jgp, and if Pierce is not doing a summer comp and Keiser is not ready for whatever reason (and without national ranking), A Glenn may end up with one after all.
     
  23. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Polina Edmunds, Mariah Bell, Tomoki Hiwatashi (men) and Lewis/Bye will debut on the JGP in Mexico City; Nathan Chen and Hawayek/Baker are the returning skaters. The alternates remain the same as listed earlier: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/sho...pots-2013-14&p=3964708&viewfull=1#post3964708

    Daniel Samohin (Novice 4th at 2013 U.S. Nationals) is still listed in USFS' International Selection Pool (ISP), but has switched to representing ISR in the Mexico City JGP.

    Selena Zhou won the Junior Ladies Final Round at Skate Detroit, scoring 100.95 in the FS. Her jumps were: 2A+3T(-), 3Lz, 3Lo, 3F+2T+2Lo, 3Lz+2T, 3F, 3S. She won the U.S. Challenge Skate invitational in Salt Lake over Polina Edmunds last Sept. but didn't qualify in Junior Ladies out of Pacific Coast Sectionals for 2013 Nationals. Based on her performances this summer, she could be considered for the ISP (although it's unlikely, with so many age-eligible ladies already listed in the ISP).
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2013
  24. her grace

    her grace Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if Miller will get a spot at all since it's been reported that she is (was?) in a cast. Hopefully, she'll recover in time because she deserves one!

    I'm also hoping that Keiser's name is just a placeholder in the Slovakia entries; she hasn't done anything this summer season to justify a JGP selection and she wasn't at nationals either. Let the other girls, e.g., Lam, Glenn, and Cain, go first! :mitchell:
     
  25. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I'd prefer some of the younger girls get a shot Like Karen Chen then someone like Vanessa Lam who is probably going to end up aging out of Juniors since she's hasn't done anything to get any events as a Senior internationally and seems to have not progressed in the last couple of years.
     
  26. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    I posted this last week in the U.S. Ladies news thread in GSD and forgot to cross-post here:
    JGP #3 (Kosice, Slovakia) entries, published today, are: Shotaro Omori, Nix Phengsy (his JGP and international debut); Leah Keiser, Barbie Long; Chelsea Liu/Devin Perini and Kaitlin Budd/Nikita Cheban (both debuting in pairs); Rachel and Michael Parsons and Holly Moore/Daniel Klaber in dance.

    Samohin's name now has been removed from the ISP.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2013
  27. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    Chen is going to Latvia (replacing Angela Wang). I can't see Vanessa Lam going very far as a senior with her jump technique - there's no way she'll ever be able to land a 3-3 - but I think Cain deserves a spot more than Keiser does. Cain has landed 3f-3t in at least one of her summer competitions and should score well component-wise.

    I really don't see how USFS can think a skater who scores 32 in the SP and 64 in the FS (Keiser) is competition-ready for a JGP
     
  28. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    FWIW, I heard the assignments for the first 3 JGPs were made well before Glacier Falls (they were accidentally published online by USFS on June 3rd and then removed).
     
  29. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    That makes sense (I remember them being accidentally published :) ) but IMHO if an athlete cannot prove that he/she's ready for that assignment, which USFS apparently requires them to do 35 days or so pre-compatition, then someone else who is ready should get the opportunity.
     
  30. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    :respec: