US Pairs 2012-13 news & updates

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Sylvia, May 4, 2012.

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  1. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    De la mora/ Wilson have not met the minimum TES for the SP this year and cannot compete at junior worlds.

    Glad to see we have some teams coming in for next year though :)
  2. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    It was great to be able to see Marissa Castelli & Simon Shnapir win their first GP medal (bronze) at NHK Trophy as well as Alexa Scimeca & Chris Knierim's impressive GP debut in 4th! :cool: Also, Lindsay Davis & Mark Ladwig finished 6th at NHK with their best international total score to date.

    ETA:
    ISU Season Best Total Scores after NHK Trophy - U.S. Senior GP teams:
    8 Denney/Coughlin 179.21 at Rostelecom Cup
    9 Castelli/Shnapir 174.51 at NHK
    14 Scimeca/Knierim 163.10 at NHK
    21 Davis/Ladwig 143.70 at NHK
    25 Vise/Baldwin 143.15 at Rostelecom Cup
    32 Donlan/Speroff 131.26 at Skate America

    All fall international scores: http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/scoretracker/2012-2013-pairs-scores/
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2012
  3. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Just to add -

    Here's S/K's SP from NHK: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iuTCIrDMwM

    I'm truly amazed at the height on the 3TW and throw 3F, and how much control and unison they exhibit for the fact that they've only been together since April. The British commentators were funny - 'This is good ... REALLY good'.

    Does anyone think they could make the World's team, if you consider how good they are after only 6 - 7 months?
  4. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Well they're one of only 3 teams to make the Worlds min score, so at worst they'll be first alternate. Right now, C/S are far ahead on PCS and basically equal on TES. I don't envision S/K closing that gap in two months, but if either of the top 2 teams have major meltdowns or become injured, S/K are right there waiting to take advantage...it is scary to though to think that if 2 of these 3 teams get injured, we'll be forced to only send 1 pair to Worlds! Thank goodness for S/K or else we'd be totally devoid of alternates! Although perhaps whichever other teams finish in the top 5 at Nationals will be sent out to an international post-Nationals for one last attempt at the min score...
  5. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    What is the deadline to achieve a minimum score for Worlds (you mention post-Nationals)? What is that score? I assume none of V/B, D/S and D/L have met it?
    Sorry for all the questions ...
  6. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    There's always 4CC's, not to mention a Senior B opportunity, before Worlds.
  7. carriecmu0503

    carriecmu0503 New Member

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    I'm not sure any of our other pairs have met the minimum required score for 4CC. It is rather scary how shallow the pairs field is in the US!
  8. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    TES min for worlds- PAIR SKATING SP 28,00 FS 45,00
  9. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    Fortunately, the 4CC's requirement is not that high:
    4cc's Requirements
    PAIR SKATING SP 20,00 FS 36,00
    Worlds Requirements
    PAIR SKATING SP 28,00 FS 45,00

    http://www.isuresults.com/results/gprus2012/SEG005.HTM
    Vise Baldwin got 22.96 TES in the SP, 50.22 in the LP at CoR
    Consequently they are OK for 4CC's and need to hit the TES for Worlds in the SP; however they are OK already for the LP

    Donlan & Speroff made the LP requirement for 4CC's & Wolrds at Graz, and I believe they still need the SP for Worlds:
    SP 20.03, LP 47.07

    Davis & Ladwig,
    Skate Canada SP 23.68 for 4CC's
    NHK LP 50.62

    So all 3 teams are in the same place: needing 28 points TES in the SP to go to Worlds, but all qualified for 4CC's already
  10. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Felicia Zhang/Nate Bartholomay are also qualified for 4CC based on their Salt Lake Senior B scores.

    6 JGP teams have met the 4CC minimums:
    Aaron/Settlage
    Calalang/Sidhu
    H. Denney/Frazier (Senior at Nationals)
    Oltmanns/Santillan
    Pfund/Reiss
    Simpson/Blackmer
  11. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    D/S have made the FS score three times this year: at Nebelhorn (51.93), at Skate America (45.54), and at Ice Challenge (47.07), but they really need to up their SP TES (19.39 at Nebelhorn, 19.37 at Skate America, 20.3 at Ice Challenge).

    V/B also made the FS minimum each time out this season -- at US International (51.68), at Skate Canada (48.16), and at Rostelecom Cup (50.22), but they are a lot closer in the SP minimum, with 24.41 at Skate Canada (and 22.96 at Skate America, after a very weak SP at USIC, where they scored 18.73).

    Zhang/Bartholomay made the FS minimum in their first try at USIC (48.14), and got closer than these two couples to the SP minimum at USIC, which was very early in the season (23.66).

    These teams and D/L are very close in range in the FS, with D/S a bit behind in the SP minimum.

    At this time, there are no Senior B's listed on the USFS International Assignments page after Ice Challenge, but after US Nationals, it may be necessary.

    If USFS wants to announce the team immediately after US Nationals, and one of these teams places second, they have the choice of 1. Going to the first team that has made the minimum by January 2. Making provisional allotments based on 4C's and/or Bavarian Open (running concurrently) or 3. Using the results of 4C's to determine the team at a later date.

    There are four Senior B's with Senior Pairs competitions between now and US Nationals, although I haven't checked the entry deadlines for the early December ones, and then only 4C's and the Bavarian Open before Worlds.
  12. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the rundown, kwanfan! Not to jinx anyone, but based on how things have been going, I would find it very shocking if a team besides C/S or S/K managed silver at Nationals, unless they were to collide in a warmup and both withdraw or something. Let's hope it doesn't come to that!
  13. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ If Castelli/Shnapir can skate cleanly at Nats with no mistakes, I think they have great programs and can get the silver. Scimeca/Knierim are extremely good together after a short time, but they still need more time to develop better speed and polish. I really like S/K and if they continue to improve I feel they can win Nats gold post Sochi. If only Donlan/Speroff could find a way to nail their jumps, they could fly above C/S and S/K because of their superb line and presentation skills, but unfortunately D/S did not have a great start to this season.
  14. reese

    reese Well-Known Member

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    I think even with mediocre skates (like their LP at NHK), Castelli/Shnapir will be good for silver given their strong fall competitions. I can even see a situation where they contend with Denney/Coughlin for gold, like Marley/Brubaker last year. Even though Marley/Brubaker had rough fall competitions (if I'm remembering correctly, their SkAm LP comes to mind as particularly cringe-wroth), the judges still gave them the GOEs on the elements and the PCS to move them well ahead after the SP. Also, I think Castelli/Shnapir's 61+ SP at NHK was higher than anything D/C have done this yr in an SP?

    Scimeca/Knierim are promising, and I think with clean skates they could grab bronze and the final 4CC spot, but I refuse to get my hopes up about this team, mostly because they are dating (very openly), and that doesn't always bode well for long-term, on-ice stability if they ever break up, especially w/ American teams.

    I think Donlan/Speroff might end up 4th at Nationals again this year, although I am hoping they can pull off 3rd with clean-ish skates. They are so, so lovely and I hope they see this year, with all the rough skates, as a growing experience and are encouraged to stay together by looking at the kind of results Castelli/Shnapir have finally achieved after many seasons together, including some pretty rough ones. 2 solid fall competitions (SkAm and Graz) and all of a sudden at NHK C/S are getting all 7s and up on the component scores (they jumped from PCS of 52+ in the LP at SkAm to 55+ at NHK with a much weaker skate). Things can turn around quickly.
  15. stjeaskategym

    stjeaskategym Well-Known Member

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    C/S are definitely doing well, but I think the NHK scoring was a bit misleading. The field there was especially weak, yet the judges seemed set on giving the medalists typical scores you would see from medalists in a GP, even if the performances were weaker. The bronze came down to C/S and a brand new team that has potential but clearly still needs more time, so I think this helped C/S a bit score-wise at this event.

    On another note, it's little strange that it's so easy to get the Worlds minimum TES for the LP, yet quite difficult to get the minimum SP score. You don't necessarily have to skate a good free skate at all to get 45 TES in a LP, but you have to be pretty solid to get a 28 in the SP. I'm curious as to why they made it so lopsided like that.
  16. DORISPULASKI

    DORISPULASKI Watching submarine races

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    I saw D&S at SkAm, and they are noticeably weaker and slower than I expected, and sadly I found them much less enchanting than I do when they are on TV. So it isn't just the jumps they need-they need some basic skating skills stuff.
  17. hippychick

    hippychick New Member

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    Having seen D/S live at both Skate America and last years nationals, they looked very nervous at Skate America which may have attributed to them skating soo much slower and looking very weak in general. They certainly did not look anything at all like they looked in the official practices. They looked much stronger at last year's Nationals and skated with speed and power.

    I really hope they are using this time to work on their DS. They have only received credit for it once - and that was at Skate America. Their sp would be a masterpiece if it was skated cleanly and with power and conviction. It is one of the best choreographed programs I have seen from an American team this year.

    IIRC Donlan and Speroff started off roughly last year and were not even offered an international at all, not even a Senior B. Hopefully they can use their team mates C/S as an example of what a long term team can achieve if they stick it out together. As far as the Broadmoor teams - they always start out extremely strong and show tons of potential, however they seem to disintegrate as soon as things get a lttle bit tough. I hope this trend has changed, but it is hard for me to get too excited about those teams who head straight for the top, at some point every team will face adversity, and it seems more difficult for US teams to weather the storm when times get tough. Just my opinion.
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2012
  18. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    That's good to know, hippychick, because I saw D/S the first time at SA after liking them a lot on video, and I thought the same as Doris.
  19. hippychick

    hippychick New Member

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    Yes, they definitely skated with more speed and power at Nationals then they did at Skate America. That being said, they do have their work cut out for them this season. They have seemed a little "off kilter" all season long. Hopefully they will get back on track by Nationals!
  20. Skittl1321

    Skittl1321 Well-Known Member

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    If anyone is interested Leng/LeDuc are skating in a show in Eastern Iowa this weekend.
    More information is available at the club page: http://eifscorg.ipower.com/eifsc/

    (Not affiliated, and sadly can't go)
  21. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Back to C/S.

    I watched the video of their LP at NHK. I'm trying to understand their strategy in doing the Throw 2x. Does it help them gauge their ability to do a Throw 3x? I mean, I've been watching them for years and they haven't landed it in competition yet (that I'm aware of). It seems like they are working hard on PCS, so why not take the high(er) PCS marks along with a throw 3loop or 3flip? ... and they would seem more solid w/ SBS 3sals than SBS 2x's.

    Why throw away points?
  22. stjeaskategym

    stjeaskategym Well-Known Member

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    2 sets of SBS triples is really not easy even for the best jumping teams. Before last season, C/S had a toe and sal planned in the LP, but one jump or the other always end up doubled and they really struggled. They do seem to be jumping better overall this season, so maybe it's something they will explore again in the future.

    As for the throws, C/S have never had a reliable throw triple beyond the 3sal. They've never tried to compete a throw 3loop and I have no idea if they've tried to work on a throw 3flip. So for them, a throw 2A seems to be their only real way to get some points. It seems they are more comfortable trying throw 3As (some of her attempts have been good, just not so much in competition) than trying a different throw. A throw triple loop or flip would be easier than an axel for nearly everyone, but maybe for C/S it's just not. I'm sure they've at least looked into trying to get a "backup throw triple" in case the 3A never materializes, but it's a lot easier said than done.
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2012
  23. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Is it their extreme height difference that causes them difficulty with the triple throws?
  24. reese

    reese Well-Known Member

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    There was an article somewhere a while back where one of C/S's coaches addressed the throw issue and he/she said that the throw 3axel was actually easier for Marissa than one of the the "less difficult" throws (I'm blanking on whether it was the flip or the loop).
  25. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^Thanks to all for the explanations. I had no idea that C/S had such a small arsenal of throw jumps, and I hope they revisit the SBS 3sal for the LP
  26. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Yes, Yankowskas/Reagan are listed on USFS' official roster as having received a bye to Nationals.

    ETA trivia fact: Castelli/Shnapir have skated together the longest (since June 2006) of the 12 Senior pairs qualified for 2013 Nationals.
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
  27. figureit

    figureit New Member

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    Thanks Sylvia!
    Does anyone have any guesses on how these 12 teams will place at Nationals?? 1-12
  28. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Anything can happen and I don't know all of the teams that well, but based on the little I do know and per my own preferences/ guesses (and on what I've seen of those who've skated at senior Bs and GP circuit):

    Denney/ Coughlin
    Castelli/ Shnapir
    Scimeca/ Knierim
    Denney/ Frazier
    Donlan/ Speroff (if they land all their jumps, maybe 4th place)
    Zhang/ Bartholomay (perhaps 4th or 5th if they skate well and others don't)

    Kayne/ O'Shea (could also place higher)
    Davis/ Ladwig
    Vise/ Baldwin
    Yankowskas/ Reagan (if they're in shape, maybe higher)

    Toss-Up:
    Baga/ Toth
    Leng/ LeDuc
  29. kwanfan1818

    kwanfan1818 I

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    What is the rationale for the bye, if they started neither of their GP events?

    ETA: I just found the answer (from you, Sylvia), in another thread:

    Many thanks!
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
  30. jdonavan

    jdonavan New Member

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    I think your pretty close to correct....However I think you're off on Denney/Frazier being that high
  31. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    With the split of E/L and M/B, the US Pairs field really got winnowed down and easier to predict. I think it may go something like this -

    1. D/C
    2. C/S

    I will say that I find it interesting that D/C clean were getting total marks around 180 pts. on the GP, while C/S w/ a couple of mistakes were not that far off, scoring 174 pts. I feel that D/C will win nationals, but C/S might be closer than expected, perhaps even leading after the SP at Nationals. D/C's SP doesn't appear to be as well received as their LP internationally

    3. S/K

    They seem very comfortably entrenched as #3 US pair w/ only 7 months together. They are nearly 20 pts. above the rest of the field! Unless they are sidelined by an unforeseen circumstance, I think they will only improve (but not enough to make the World team) and probably get a 4CC's spot.

    4. D/S

    They do tend to improve over the course of the season so I think they could still be 4th despite their disastrous early season. It is extremely frustrating to watch them botch SBS jumps time after time, and not be able to do the death spiral correctly to even get any points on the element! They are too talented for that!

    5. D/L

    Doing OK for a new team but still below expectations IMO. I think their NHK LP around 100 pts. gives them a glimmer of hope and perhaps puts them on the right track. They seemed happy afterwards and it might motivate them.

    6. V/B

    Not great performances this season so far, but their marks are consistently around the 140s; enough to land them probably 6th or so at Nationals. I''m not sure judges will gift them any benefit of the doubt because they are an 'older' couple (relatively speaking) and are most likely not part of US pairs future.

    7. Z/B

    If they show us again their promise that we saw over the Summer, they could be higher, but they've hit a rough patch with her injury. When healthy, they seem motivated to do quite well. I hope they can show us their best side by Nationals and get on the right track for the future. If they do well, and D/L or V/B perform subpar, maybe they will be as high as 5th

    ETA - I think 4th - 7th are a big muddle and anything can happen. It will depend on who has a good competition.

    8. D/F

    Not enough data this year on this 2 for me to say definitively where I think they'll be.

    *I'm not sure where to stick Y/R. They've had zero competitions this year and what they showed during the Summer competitions was a little subpar. They strike me as a couple that will have great chemistry and we might catch a glimpse of that by Nationals, but technically, I see them probably skating cautiously w/ some errors mostly due to the fact that they are new and have nothing to go on so far.


    9. Probably K/O. They're outperforming L/L and B/T just has too little pairs skills at this point

    10. L/L

    11. B/T


    It's a little embarrassing at this point that the US has only 3 pairs who have met minimum TES requirements that are eligible to skate at Worlds
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
  32. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    My predictions

    Denney/ Coughlin - Obvious favorite
    Castelli/ Shnapir - Barring major errors, should make 2nd
    Scimeca/ Knierim - Can easily keep up technically, still have strides to make in PCS
    Zhang/ Bartholomay - Two clean programs and this team is officially on the rise

    Davis/ Ladwig - A surprising clean short has them in the running, but a couple mistakes in the FS take away the pewter medal
    Denney/ Frazier - Still missing some spark from both partners, probably one missed throw in the FS (They go to JR Worlds)
    Kayne/ O'Shea - Their first season together, don't quite have "it" yet.
    Donlan/ Speroff - Their PCS are the only thing that have them this high, as there are several glaring errors in their programs.

    Vise/ Baldwin - Team stock is dropping. Both are the past, will have to put together a truly great performance to even think about 5th place
    Leng/ Leduc - Her first year doing pairs, he needs some time in the gym (at least from the looks of it) before this team can take off.
    Baga/ Toth - Disasterous skate, Split after season... Could see her with Rockne?? :)
    Yankowskas/ Reagan - WD
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
  33. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Yes, the top teams are fairly predictable, but sure some of my earlier guesses may be off by quite a bit re teams such as Zhang/Bartholomay; Denney/ Frazier; Davis/ Ladwig; and Kayne/ O'Shea (that's why some of my hedging) ;). johndockley92 you may be more on the mark. Actually, I'd love to see Donlan/ Speroff 4th and Davis/ Ladwig 5th at the least.

    I think Donlan/Speroff would obviously be considered more in the running for 3rd or 4th had they started off with more of a bang this season. And of course Yank/Reagan right now have shown nothing due to being injured/ not in shape/ not together long enough/ too many high expectations projected right after they joined up.

    Hmmm, interesting (and rather yummy speculation) re a Baga and Brubaker pairing; even their initials have the "IT" factor ... I wonder why Baga/ Toth are having such problems jelling/ gelling?
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2012
  34. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    Baga is actually short enough for Rockne too :) ------------------ I don't know exactly the problem, but he seems like a bit of a diva, trying to be the star of the team (the star should be the girl). They only have one planned 5Li which is pretty bad for senior, it means that he can't do two lassos consistently (it's worth more, points-wise, and almost all senior teams do two lasso lifts).
  35. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    I just watched C/S the other day on youtube and am not surprised they won bronze at NHK. :cool: My mom loved them the first time she saw them at SA and I have to say they blew me away also; they're even better in person if that's possible, whereas I have to be honest I was a little disappointed in my favorite pair ~ D/S ~ they were better on t.v. then in person as far as their skating goes; their looks that's a whole other ballgame, they look like movie stars; he Brad Pitt/Leonardo Dicaprio, she Katia Gordeeva/Kate Middleton. But their skating was simply not in the league of D/C & C/S, whom were both powerful, excitiing, fast, dynamic and on a whole other level. In fact I'm hoping they can manage some combo. of 13 at Worlds, either 5+8 or 6+7. Crossing my fingers for them! :saint:

    I see D/S coming into their own on a gradual basis, like Evora & Ladwig did, they just have to keep with it, keep working hard, don't get discouraged, their time will come, set their sights on the 2018 Olympics. In the meantime keep plugging away at gaining more speed & power, landing their sbs jumps, gaining consistency, upping the difficulty on their lifts, taking it one day at a time, one new element at a time, a new one every year. Jmho, because they have everything else in spades. :hat1:

    As for the rest, to be honest none of them impress me, can't even be bothered to watch any of their GP assignments, a youtube video, et al. Once was enough.

    I'm way more excited about the junior pairs of Aaron/Settlage (my fav) and the pair that did a phenomenal performance to "Titanic" last year. She's something else. I saw her skate with her old partner and then her new one. Both pairings were terrific. Cant' wait to see both of these junior pair teams enter seniors in 2014. :)
  36. ioana

    ioana Well-Known Member

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    I think D/S haven't quite reached the point where their basic skating is consistently great, no matter how nervous or off they are. Having seen them at skating shows around Boston for the past few years, they can be :swoon:-worthy with sweeping edges and great lines, but I'm not sure that always translates into their competitive programs. Once it does, they should start doing extremely well.
  37. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    I get the gist you are referring to Baga's current partner. ;)


    NadineWhite, who are the junior pair who skated "a phenomenal performance to Titanic last year"? Is there a vid available? I too hope that Donlan/ Speroff keep working at it and don't give up.
  38. reese

    reese Well-Known Member

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    Simpson/Blackmer did the Titanic program. They are staying Jr for Nats. They had a rough JGP season (compared to last yr when they made the JGPF). I worry there isnt enough size difference between them.

    Their Titanic LP from the JGPF last year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjHQkaKW_U4
  39. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Oh yes, thanks. Of course, I know who they are by name, and I have seen this performance before. Thanks for posting it and for citing them by name.

    Simpson/ Blackmer do seem to have a lot of potential as a pair. They made JGPF last season, but not this season. Unfortunately, pairs in the U.S. have seen so many splits and musical chairs teaming up over the years. Hopefully, S/B will last.
  40. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    A little down time at work.

    Here is a list of top 2 international scores / top domestic score or 2 (in parentheses) so far this season for those US pairs competing as Seniors at Nationals:

    1. Denney/Coughlin 179.21 178.90 (172.16)
    2. Castelli/Shnapir 174.86 174.51 (165.74)
    3. Scimeca/Knierim 163.10 156.00 (158.63)
    4. Donlan/Speroff 145.35 135.43 (150.00)
    5. Davis/Ladwig 143.70 122.26 (144.35)
    6. Vise/Baldwin 143.34 143.15 (138.68)
    7. Zhang/Bartholomay 143.32 (150.05)
    8. Kayne/O'Shea (150.50) (137.72)
    9. Denney/Frazier 127.33 (150.08)
    10.Baga/Toth (119.41) (106.73)
    11.Leng/Leduc (113.44)
    12.Yankowskas/Reagan ?

    Look at the muddle from 4th - 7th. Pewter is really up for grabs!
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