Update on Rachael Flatt

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by maureenfarone, Jan 26, 2013.

  1. Carolla5501

    Carolla5501 Well-Known Member

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    Probably a lot better then you could do LOL. Sorry, but being the 4th best skater in the US hardly seems like total failure. Most of us would be happy to be top 5 in our sport/profession
     
  2. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

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    Um -do they actually have four skaters on the podium?
     
  3. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

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  4. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    As if that has any chance of happening.
     
  5. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    :rolleyes:

    No one said being 4th place at Nationals was total failure. They did say Rachael making the Olympic team was a pipe dream. To answer back to that statement with "a 4th place finish is totally possible" is just dumb because (a) 4th place doesn't go to the Olympics and (b) a 4th place for finish Rachel is also extremely unlikely. It's "possible" only in the "stranger things have happened" definition of that word but not in the "probable" or "likely enough to happen that it's worth planning for" definition.

    Mind you, I would be over the moon if Rachael placed in the top six, but unfortunately think a top 10 is more realistic at this point. I'd be more sanguine about a top 6 if she'd won Coasts instead of coming second and had podiumed at Coupe de Nice.
     
  6. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    nm.
     
  7. peibeck

    peibeck Letting Poje be on top

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    Is Carolina in the GPF? I thought it was Ashley, Mao and 4 Russian wonder-babies.

    Back on topic, I don't envision Rachael on the podium, especially without a 3lutz or 3 flip. However, I think top ten is possible, and considering both her school schedule and health issues she has had, that would be a more than respectable result.

    :rolleyes: Obviously you didn't watch Sectionals. She didn't do the hardest jumps, but quite frankly it has been a couple of years since she has looked so physically fit. And compared to Zhang, Rachael looked like Kostner out there. :p
     
  8. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    Flatt landed 3Lz+2T in her free skate both at CP Regionals and Cup of Nice in October.
     
  9. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    No shit. No one is arguing that 4th place goes to Sochi. 4th place, however, is part of the podium and short of writing the USFS and getting them to overhaul their rules, you're not going to change that fact so accept it.

    And if I recall, Jammers said Rachael wouldn't even get close to the podium. I argued that she could place top 6 and that would be "close to the podium." If she's healthy, she could possibly place 4-6, especially if Gao, Hicks and Zawadzki repeat some of their bomb performances this year.

    You're an unbelievably angry person. Unclench already.
     
  10. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    This. if Gao repeats her last GP long program performance (which I pray doesn't happen because she's my very sentimental pick for the third spot) and Agnes continues her string of bad long programs, it's not out of the realm that Flatt could pass them at nationals. Don't get me wrong. I don't want Rachael medaling (and I can't believe how much I've defended her on this thread when she's never been close to my favorite) but some people seem so angry that others believe she'll do better than expected. Debate is fine. Being angry with someone's opinion is scary controlling.
     
  11. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

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  12. Iceman

    Iceman Well-Known Member

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    Maybe I remember incorrectly, but I believe I recall seeing a photograph with all four on the podium. Will see if I can find one.
     
  13. Iceman

    Iceman Well-Known Member

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    I don't think Rachael would be putting herself through what she has if she didn't think she could make a good showing. I won't be overly surprised if she gets the bronze medal.
     
  14. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Even if Agnes, Gao or some of the other top skaters bomb at Nationals skaters like Wang, Edmunds and Cain and even Hannah Miller would easily surpass Flatt.
     
  15. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Yes they could and no one is denying it. But Then again they might not. That's what makes figure skating a sport. There are two sides to each argument, no? But it appears that only one side of this argument is respecting the other side, instead of tossing around insults because someone disagrees with them.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2013
  16. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Oh yeah, there was a tie between Radionova and Kostner. I didn't check up on how it turned out. Problem is, I like Radionova too. :wall:
     
  17. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    Only if the definition of angry is "doesn't agree with you". :lol:

    To get back to Rachael, as much as I would love to see her on the "podium", her scores at Coupe of Nice and Coasts make that highly unlikely. I'm kind of sad about it because when she came out at that summer comp and had such a good showing in the SP, I was just sure that was the beginning of great things and by the end of the summer she'd be posting competitive scores in the LP as well and might actually be a threat for the podium if everything went her way and a few of the other contenders faltered.

    But if you looks Sylvia's score tracker and compare Flatt's scores at Regionals and Sectionals to the scores her competitors at Nationals have been posting all summer and fall, there are just too many Ladies competitors who can beat her on any given day. I counted something like 14 Regionals scores above hers and that was just a quick count. If I made a spreadsheet with every Ladies competitor at Nationals and their best, worst and average score this season, I think it would just be too depressing and make my hope for a Top 10 finish unrealistic enough.
     
  18. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    I know from reading her posts that MacMadame really likes Rachael. She is just being realistic.
     
  19. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    Gorgeous post, thanks for supplying it, Sylvia! :)

    Glad to read Rachael (aka today's Haley Mills) had a great Thanksgiving with family, friends, and dogs (yep, can't forget those angels, I know). :saint: And is rehabbing her back and enjoying the holidays. Love the part wherein Rachael mentions the Christmas lights, ITA, ITA! :cheer: Nothing like it. In fact a tradition of my famiily since I was small is/was to go out sightseeing and count how many houses have lights on them. This year I got up early on Black Friday to get that one-of-a-kind life size Santa for half the price. :cool:

    GOOD LUCK AT NATIONALS, RACH, I KNOW YOU'LL DO GOOD AS ALWAYS! :encore:
     
  20. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Realistic is fine. Calling someone stupid and an idiot because you don't agree with them is childish.
     
  21. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    Well, I killed a couple hours putting together a spreadsheet with MacMadame's criteria and Rachael didn't end up on the podium no matter which scenario I ran. But best of luck to her at Nats. She earned her spot and if just competing at Nationals one more time makes her happy, more power to her. If she's been following skating at all, I'm sure she already has some idea where she will place. I hope that Rachael can post a score of 150+ and finish in the top twelve.

    ETA: The hypothetical podiums:

    Everyone Skates to Her Best Score

    1. Wagner 194.37
    2. Gold 186.75
    3. Nagasu 175.37
    4. Miller 174.80

    Everyone Skates to Her Average Score

    1. Wagner 194.09
    2. Gold 176.41
    3. Miller 174.80
    4. Hicks 166.74

    Everyone Skates to Her Worst Score

    1. Wagner 193.81
    2. Miller 174.80
    3. Gold 164.68
    4. Cain 162.39
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2013
    AxelAnnie and (deleted member) like this.
  22. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    Yes, Rachael is a sentimental favorite. But I'm an engineer and I can't make myself say stuff which is blatantly untrue just because I like someone. I'd probably get farther in my career if I could. :lol:

    Anyway, I was bored so I also made a spreadsheet. I put in all the Ladies who qualified for Nats with their best summer/fall comp score based on Sylvia's Unseen Skater site and then I looked up their Regionals and Sectionals scores and any JGP or SGP scores. I found a few Senior B scores on Sylvia's site as well that I also threw in. I didn't make any adjustments for the fact that Junior comps have different tech requirements which *could* cause lower scores just because I tried to make all possible biases be in Flatt's favor and also any adjustment was bound to be controversial. Based on my spreadsheet:

    There are 21 skaters going to Nationals this year in Senior Ladies according to the latest announcement on the USFS website. Of those skaters:

    7 have never posted a score lower than Rachael's highest score
    19 have scored better than Flatt's best score this season at least once
    6 have also scored lower than her lowest score and 12 have scored lower than her highest score
    2 have never outscored her highest score (but both of those skaters have outscored her lowest score and those same two skaters have a lower average score than she does)
    0 have never outscored her lowest (another way to put it is that every single one has outscored her lowest score at least once this season)

    Make of that what you will… I make of it that a top 6 finish would be a miracle and that means Jammers is correct. Even a top 10 finish will be very hard. I think believing that is possible (which I do, I really do) probably makes me a Flatt uber because her average score put her in 19th. :wuzrobbed:
     
  23. MacMadame

    MacMadame Cat Lady-in-Training

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    My spreadsheet has different results. Are you sure you got all the JGPs as I have Edmunds posting higher scores than you do. Here's what I got:

    Everyone Skates to Her Best Score

    1. Wagner
    2. Gold
    3. Hicks
    4. Nagasu

    Everyone Skates to Her Average Score

    1. Wagner
    2. Gold
    3. Hicks
    4. Edmunds

    Everyone Skates to Her Worst Score

    1. Wagner
    2. Gold
    3. Edmunds
    4. Hicks
     
  24. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    There are many more skaters competing other than Gao, Hicks and Zawadzki. Flatt's SB would place her outside top 10.

    It's your responses to MacMadame in this thread that seem angry and disproportionate. She had an opinion that was different to yours but none of her posts read to me as confrontational or aggressive.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2013
  25. PairSk8Fan

    PairSk8Fan Banned Member

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    This whole debate over the pewter medals is kind of unnecessary. Just ask any skater or look at pics in Skating magazine.

    I was a USFS skater and I got several pewter medals. We stand beside the podium and 4th is rarely marked like 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Period. Those are the facts.

    4th is OFF the podium.
     
  26. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    I must have misread your criteria. I only used senior comp scores. Even so, a Wagner-Gold 1-2 outcome seems likely, and if Flatt skates really well, all things given, top 12 is at least possible, although on my spreadsheet, 17th was her best "finish".
     
  27. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for piping in. :rolleyes: I have not personally insulted her, either on this thread or in a PM. But if you wouldn't bat an eyelash to someone calling you stupid or an idiot because they disagreed with your opinion, then more power to you.

    Back to Rachael, I wish her luck at nationals but not too much luck. :lol: My dream team is Wagner, Gold and Gao, with Cain as the alternate.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2013
  28. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    This assumes Rachael was skating her best at the qualifying rounds rather than just doing enough to move to the next level. I doubt very much she will show up at Nationals if she can only do doubles. I don't think Rachael has a realistic shot at the podium because the competition is too stiff. But I also expect to see her do better than she did at Regionals and Sectionals.

     
  29. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    This. So much hoopla is made every year about the hierarchy of skaters at sectionals. It's a big waste of time to be analyzing things too much, imo. The last 2 pewter medalists at US nationals were women who finished second at their respective sectionals. That's only what I can remember at the top of my head. I'm sure there are many, many more similar examples if we were to go back and start looking at results. It's a fresh sheet of ice at nationals.
     
  30. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    It is optimistic on the part of fans to expect a top 10 finish from Flatt. Based on what I've seen from her, 12th to 18th is the most likely range. The only way I see her moving up is if some of the newcomers completely fold in the FS, allowing Flatt to move up with a strong performance.

    Having said that, top 10 is within reach IF she makes dramatic improvements in the next month. But (it seems) top 4 will remain out of reach for her no matter what she does.