Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by judgejudy27, Nov 15, 2010.
At this point who would you favor to win U.S Nationals for the men.
Lysacek has two National titles, not three.
Lysacek can't win 4th title. He has to win 3rd first.
Given Jeremy's inconsistency, I doubt he will win his 3rd consecutive title. If Adam can skate well at nationals, he will be the champion.
Maybe Armin could play spoiler?
Has it been definitely stated that Ryan Bradley will not be at Nats?
No, Bradley could still show up.
I would much rather Armin place above Mroz, and since he's left his place at the beginning of his program for a quad that might happen!
Would love Abbott to win, but after last year maybe winning nationals has lost its charm. I would much rather he peak at Worlds.
My bet would be Rippon, assuming he pulls himself together!
As I don't want to jinx my favorite, I'm fairly sure Brandon Mroz will win this one
I put Jeremy because he has a tendancy to do well at Nationals, but I want Adam to win.
I'd love it if either Jeremy or Armin won, but in Armin's case it's extremely unlikely and it might be too much for him too soon. I think Jeremy has the best chance as he hasn't tended to melt down at Nationals. Adam I'm not so sold on at present - his brand of artistry seems a little forced to me, like he's trying too hard to be an arteeste.
If Mroz wins, I will weep. Not only because his skating doesn't enthrall me, but also because I find Tom Z. very creepy.
It would seem strange to see a skater of Jeremys level win 3 U.S titles but Rippon was dissapointing in his GP events and Mroz doesnt have the complete package of the other two. It will be interesting to see what happens. I really dont think we will see Evan back this year or ever at this point.
Word! Jeremy and Evan have the same number of senior National titles at 2.
Why would that seem strange? Jeremy's a great skater when he's on, and he tends to do well at nationals. I'm not saying he has the third title in the bag, but it wouldn't be some huge upset if he won again.
I know! Someone of his level should have 10 national titles.
I agree it wouldnt be an upset if he won since it looks like Rippon might not be ready yet after all, and I am not sure who else can win it. However it would seem strange since the U.S has such an illustrious history of great mens skaters. In the last 30 years they have produced 3 Olympic Champions, have won 11 combined World or Olympic titles, and have countless # of world medals. It would seem strange to see a skater who cant even win a World medal win his 3rd U.S title.
Tweeted by Jeremy Abbott on November 12:
Wow, it didn't take you long at all to hop off the Rippon bandwagon. Some fan you are!
Joannie Rochette was a 5 time National champion before she won her World silver medal in 2009.
Johnny Weir was a 3 time National champion before he won his World bronze medal in 2008.
Stephane Lambiel was a 5 time National champion before he won his World gold medal in 2005.
Dubreuil/Lauzon were 4 time National champions before they won World silver in 2006.
Maria Butyrskaya was a 5 time National champion before she won her World bronze medal in 1998.
Delobel/Schoenfelder were 6 time National champions before they won World gold in 2008.
These are all fantastic skaters who mounted world podiums long after they experienced National victory.
So, for you, it's strange that Johnny has 3 US titles, since he doesn't have any Gold at Worlds, Olys, or GPF and got his World medal after his Nationals titles ?
Johnny does have a World medal, not gold, but a medal. He has also other finishes of 4th and 5th at Worlds. Jeremy thus far has just a single 5th place showing at Worlds. And Johnny has been dominant on the grand prix circuit in both the 04-05 and 07-08 seasons winning all 4 of his regualar grand prix assignements those 2 seasons.
I never claimed to be a Rippon fan. I dont like or dislike him, I pretty much am neutral in that regard. Just as I am pretty much neutral on Abbott, another skater I dont either really like or dislike on a fan level. I expected Rippon to win Nationals this year prior to the grand prix just because I thought he was ready to take the next step in his career and since he is a better skater than Abbott who will never be a true elite on the world level.
I do still think if Rippon skates to his potential he will win Nationals. If Rippon skates like he did at Skate America though Abbott will win easily unless someone like Mroz skates lights out with quads though. So it will depend which Rippon shows up at Nationals.
You are talking about Swiss Nationals, seriously.
Maria hovered around the podium for years. It was clear she was always probably going to get there at some point if she stayed long enough.
The odds of Jeremy ever winning a World medal are quite small at this point.
^ You completely lost me when you claimed Rippon is a better skater than Abbott. I don't get that AT ALL!
2 years, to be exact: 4th in 96 and 5th in 97.
For judgejudy27, "better skater" usually means better competitor in the major international competitions (Worlds, Olympics). Although Rippon and Mroz are both still unproven in that regard.
With all due respect, you also predicted that Evan would never see another World podium after his bad 2008 GP season, but things didn't quite turn out that way. So why the dire predictions for Jeremy? If he's on, he'll be in the mix for World medals. He just needs to pace himself to peak at the right time this season. Hopefully he and Adam can push each other to great success!
Being Mr. Know-It-All isn't the same thing as actually knowing it all.
Funny how that comparision did not hold true for you and others when comparing Evan to Abbott though.
And you are right Rippon and Mroz are unproven in that regard. What we do know is Jeremy is hardly that strong in your new definition of better skater (World and Olympic showings). Rippon at his 1st Worlds missed matching Abbotts best placing in 4 combined World and Olympics by 1 spot.
So I was wrong on Evan, as were 95% of the posters on FSU. You know someone started a poll about the medalists at the 2009 Worlds in late 2008 and Evan had about 4 votes out of over 100 at that point.
International judges highly respect Evan and he was always a huge threat to the best in their eyes when he was on and his usual consistent self. He lost that in late 2008 and was struggling with his confidence and downgrades, but once he found it back it was easy for him to be right at the top again. I like most all others did not think this highly talented and very determined skater would ever get it all together again but he did.
Abbott on the other hand is not seen and never has been seen by international judges as even being close to the likes of Takahashi, Chan, and many others. Just look at the SP of Worlds last year. And that is only accessing his chances if he were to actually put it all together, which is already an unlikely enough proposition for him. Add to that he is already 25. A world medal at any point for him in the future now is a real long shot although he has a tiny shot of sneaking out a bronze sometime maybe.
and 4th at the 98 Olympics too. So basically almost 3 whole seasons, even counting her years of World and Olympics only. And she was a contender in 94 and 95 too, she just didnt make it to Worlds with the tight competition and limited spots in Russia. At the 94 Europeans she beat the eventual World bronze medalist, and in 95 she would have been a contender at Worlds too.
That's a pretty loose definition of "hovering around the Worlds podium" but whatever works for you.
Maria had been close to medalling at the 96 Worlds, 97 Worlds, and 98 Olympics. In 96 she should have but was robbed by an overscored Slutskaya so came 4th. In 97 and 98 Oly she missed the bronze by .1 of one judge or one tiny mistake. If that doesnt meet your standards for hovering around the podium for years then whatever.
My "standard" is pretty simple. In order to hover around the Worlds podium for years, you actually have to be participating in the event for years. No coulda/shoulda/woulda.
Abbott - If he delivers competent performances, I think US judges will give him his 3d title. So far, he's started out well - 2d at NHK to Dai. He looks well-paced and more consistent thus far
Rippon - Starting w/ the JPN Open, I would've figured him to be a serious contender for the title but he's been sliding in the wrong direction this season. He seems to get upset with himself very easily. I hope the 3x problems are a blip. I wonder if practicing the Quad is throwing off his 3x technique
Mroz - Despite the great performance at CoC, I think for Brandon to slot higher than Abbott or Rippon, he will have to hit one out of the park and expect either Abbot or Rippon to go subpar. However, the judges showed that they will reward Brandon for good performances ['09]. I think the fact that he's one US man going after the Quad puts him in good stead with the judges and the USFSA.
Mahbanoozadeh - He's slowly moving up but it would take mistakes by the other 3, and great performances by him, to climb onto the team IMO. He will probably be rewarded with a trip to 4CCs.
FTR, I'd like to see Carriere regain some of his past top 10 Worlds composure.
Of course, there is time for all of this to turn around. Want to see Mroz and Abbott at their next GPs
1996, 1997, 1998 (at the Olympics, that years biggest event) is years. End of.
If Ryan comes back, I'm rooting for him to get his first National title. I'd be a happy panda
Jeremy has a good shot of winning again but I'm kinda hoping someone else will take this title.
Jeremy was also 2008-2009 GPF Champion. That should count for something.
Definitely. However overall Weirs international record is still clearly superior to Abbott at this point with his World medal, his other top World/Olympic finishes, and all his grand prix wins and medals. He was at one point a proven force on the international level and a bonafide major contender, whereas people just hope Abbott can become one.
When was this, exactly?
2008-09 season, when he won the GPF?
That was Abbott, my dear Nomad! Abbott! I'm asking about Weir (to whom judgejudy27 was referring).
Separate names with a comma.