Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Sylvia, Sep 16, 2012.
I can't wait for this
^^ Ha ha, what are their lifetime, head-to-head stats?
Yeah, TanoRipp does have a nice ring to it -- seemingly everybody is at least working on one, if not unveiling one successfully in competition.
Oh, you're just jealous.
Seriously, Johnny has some solid programs this season with good music and choreo. He's lost none of his smoothness and artistry. And it's not a bad start to the season for him, despite the obvious flaws on some of his jumps. I also read that he had to break in new skates prior to the start of the season. Skating under CoP has never been as kind to Johnny as it should be, I think largely because he has been such an intuitive, improvisational skater. CoP forces Johnny to think more, rather than to simply feel and flow with the music. Unfortunately, I also don't think it helped Johnny when reportedly Galina tinkered with his jump technique after he began training with her. Blast that 3-loop which has never been a favorite jump for Johnny. Still it's early in the season and his hard work shows. Lots of skaters are using his former music and rockin' Johnny-flavored costumes too.
Even tho' I feel the younger guys have the advantage, anything can happen in figure skating. Who knows, maybe experience will end up being the trump card for Weir and Lysacek, and Abbott too. No matter who ends up going to Worlds for U.S. men, they really need to bring back three spots. There is just too much depth in U.S. men's field for anything less. But the guys have got to pace themselves throughout this season, for as important as U.S. Nationals is, perhaps the most important of all national championships, the chosen/ prevailing two have got to harness the necessary stamina and focus to "kill it" at Worlds.
I think Johnny's programs have wonderful potential although I am not a fan of his short program music (I think the first part is too slow). Unfortunately Johnny's biggest enemy has always been his nerves. He said last night in Finland that he left out a lot from his program (choreo and transitions) because he got nervous after messing up his first 3A. Johnny told reporters his skate at CoR would be much different because now that the first competition nerves are over, he won't make the same mistakes.
Man, Ricky's PCS were totally underscored. I don't see how he could be 4 points lower in components than Hanyu, who is great at jumps and spins, but not as masterful at the second mark.
His technical was very exciting though indeed! He would've had the highest base technical at Worlds last year by over 5 points !! In addition, his total technical score was higher than anyone's at Worlds. If he can skate two clean programs at nationals, I think he will make it to Worlds.
Considering that for years intermediate ladies have been doing their double jumps with both hands over their heads to try to get extra points (seriously, the first time I ever saw anyone do a jump with their arms in that position, it was at a club competition in the late 90s - a novice girl did her double axel that way), I don't even think Rippon should get credit for it.
2012-13 competition scores, including international, for the U.S. Sr. men to date: http://unseenskaters.wordpress.com/scoretracker/2012-2013-senior-men-scores/
Nathan Chen currently holds the highest Junior men's score (222.00) from the JGP in Austria, followed by Novice champ Vincent Zhou (195.19) at the SoCal Inv. Series Final last month. Chen's highest summer competition score was 185.33 at L.A. Open in July (where Zhou placed 1st overall, 2nd to Chen in the FS). The next 2 are Shotaro Omori (181.03) at Golden West and Jordan Moeller (161.02) at Glacier Falls in August.
Midori Ito was doing it at least as early as the 1987-88 season.
Skate America is 10/19- 21: Abbott, Lysacek and Razzano get their first shots. I believe that this is the next major competition? BTW, any word on Lysacek as to whether he will compete or not? It may not be fair, but I'm honestly half-expecting him to pull out ...
Coupe de Nice, 10/24 - 10/28: Aaron gets his 2d shot to improve even more.
Skate Canada, 10/26 - 10/28: Miner can also improve
And, when is Ice Challenge? It will be nice to see Armin again in a 2d Senior B, and make up for the fact he didn't get a GP assignment.
ETA - I got off my lazy butt and looked - Ice Challenge is 11/6 - 11/10
Dornbush's lp is the first program I have seen this season that excited me and I am not even a particular fan of the music. Beautifully choreographed and skated.
Weir has his work cut out for him. His program appeared very empty compared to someone's like Richard's. Hopefully much was left out. As long as Johnny has been competing (and even considering the hiatus), I find it difficult to buy into the "nerves" excuse and the effect of the messed up triple axel. The practice session for his lp was videotaped and he basically "stroked" around most of the time instead of doing anything near a run through. I hope he improves greatly before his first competition.
Johnny never does a full run through at the practice sessions so what he did at Finlandia was not unusual. I do believe Galina has him doing full run throughs at practice, something Priscilla Hill did not push with him. It will be interesting to see how Ricky does this year, if he can keep up the technical or if he implodes as he did last year at Nats.
See it is skates like these that justify USFS giving Dornbush a break during his tougher times. He has scoring potential. He just beat Weir by nearly 40 points, even though he also made mistakes in both programs. Armin M's personal best is nearly 30 points lower.
Not impressed with Weir's programs. There's nothing there.
I wonder if a clean Dornbush can beat Abbot. I don't think he could beat Evan, but perhaps Jeremy...
It will be interesting to see if Dornbush could hold it together during the major competitions or if he becomes a head case when the pressure increases.
^ that's opposite of what I'm thinking. Ricky at his very best might as well beat Evan at his best but clean Jeremy? Don't think so.
That's the thing. Remember how he skated oh so billiantly at '11 Nationals but went on melting down at worlds. And last season was sort of a mirror how he was not handling the pressure well.
But I do think he's learned a lot from it and it'll be somehow different with him.
I'm not remembering what you are about Dornbush at 2011 worlds. He performed very credibly, with a top ten finish. The highest finish of the three American men IIRC.
Now 2012 was a major disappointment. But that's not to say Richard can't bounce back and skate well this year. Let's see what happens.
Agreed :S I didn't think his performance at worlds was a meltdown at all...
BTW I didn't mean Clean Dornbush v clean abbot v clean Lysacek. I meant clean Dornbush v normal abbot v normal Lysacek. Lysacek tends to be the most consistent so that's why I say that I'm not sure that Dornbush could beat him - even clean.
You're both right. I don't know why I was remembering his world performancee that year were meltdowns
And again, yes johndockley I see your point. Normal Evan is pretty reliable but normal Jeremy is not
It will all come down to who can withstand the pressure of competition. We haven't even seen Lysacek or Abbott's programs yet so it's too early to predict that Ricky (or anyone else) will be a guaranteed medal at Nationals or Worlds.
IIRC, Dornbush revealed this summer that he had a problem with a blade last season and didn't figure out the problem until after his last competition. I would give him the benefit of the doubt on this one and not call him a headcase without further evidence.
I was just perusing Sylvia's no's from her link. I think based on scores thus far, the US men are in a better position to take on the world than they were the last 2 season: More prepared, more Quads, and more attack. I think many eyes will be on Abbott and Lysacek to see what exactly they lay out on the ice at SA (Will Evan go for a Quad and how rusty is he? Will Jeremy finally show a little more consistency?) and what kind of scores they can bring. Johnny set the bar at 201 pts. for the 'old men' and I think they both will go above that.
But, Evan has to show up first ...
As far as the clean Ricky vs. Inconsistent Jeremy vs. Normal Evan, and I say this as a huge Evan uber, Evan hasn't skated competitively in two seasons. And the code has changed pretty seriously since the last time he did. If he skates at SA, I'm not sure we have any idea what "normal" Evan is now.
Ricky skated a clean SP and earned a SB score in his FS at 2011 Worlds, scoring over 150 points for that program and hitting a 3a-3t in the second half of the program. His 9th place was actually a really good result considering the depth of the field and how he was competing on the junior circuit just that fall. Overall, he might have skated even better at 2011 Worlds compared to Nationals, simply because his SP was cleaner (his SP at Nats was a bit shaky and only relegated 7th place and a score of around 67 IIRC). The only mistakes in that FS were a doubled loop and a shaky landing on his 1st 3a, which was somewhat canceled out by the fact that he landed 3a-3t so well in the second half of the program, earning a bonus that he wouldn't have gotten had he performed that combo as intended at the beginning of his skate.
Last season, Dornbush was ok on the GP (SA - fairly good SP and okay FS, CoC - bad SP but pretty good FS), a mess in the SP at Nats but rebounded with a pretty good FS, then was off for both programs at 4CC. So really, he wasn't that inconsistent, he just wasn't skating his best, and considering he had boot problems, it makes sense. Richard last season was still probably more consistent than Jeremy is during any given season, he simply didn't score as high because Jeremy has more reputation, experience, and senior level medals to back him up as well as really strong PCS. I'm not saying his PCS aren't deserved, they certainly are, but Jeremy's TES is consistently a huge problem for him, last season I can't recall if he ever broke 70 for his FS TES, whereas Dornbush just posted 90+ at Finlandia and in 2010-2011 was regularly posting high 70s and low 80s for TES in his FS. Internationally, Jeremy may have up to 10 points in PCS cushion on Ricky (Evan as well), but at Nationals the differential is likely to be lower, and considering for Jeremy TES in the 60s and sometimes even dipping into the 50s is pretty normal, Ricky can easily make up those PCS points in TES with a strong skate. As for Evan we'll have to see, the quad was never his strong suit and now it's likely even he will need one to be competitive, and further, his 3a isn't great either. So now that he's taken time off, I wonder where he will slot in even if he skates cleanly...
We are within 2 weeks of SA....Evan must be planning to skate or he'd have withdrawn by now. Right? His team has always let folks know of a withdrawal in plenty of time to send another skater. I can't imagine Evan being unprepared. I expect him to do well.
Jeremy was very late getting his programs, and I couldn't tell much from the show where the programs debuted. He didn't look really ready for competition, though. His overall excellent skating skills and choreography will probably help a sub par jump performance.
I'm looking forward to seeing Razzano (he's the other US man at SA?)
I think the US men will have a rough time beating Hanyu and Kozuka.
I'm curious as to whether or not Evan's 3A will still be acceptable to the judges or if they will finally start dinging him for the under rotations.
I don't think Evan's 3A is under rotated. It won't get any + GOE but don't see any reason why it would get - GOE.
Sometimes, EL had problems with UR on the 4toe. But, I don't recall it being a problem with his 3x. Some complained about pre-rotations, though
Sorry, I meant pre rotation, not under rotation.
Maybe so, but I think both Hanyu and Kozuka have vulnerabilities. Of course, if they both lay it down, they will be difficult to beat. And too, Kozuka is a former silver medalist, and Hanyu is the current World bronze medalist. And two Japanese men were on the podium at Worlds in 2011. However, in any given competition, anyone is beatable.
I agree the U.S. men have stepped it up a notch. They've had to. Rooting for them all to do well this season and to be strongly and consistently competitive!
Granted, I am a frustrated Jeremy über, but that SP is freakin' AMAZING -- if he hits cleanly, he will demolish the competition.
As much as I want to like Dornbush (I loved his Sherlock Holmes FS), I just cannot get over my hatred of U2 to find the lurve for his SP.
ETA: Just watched Abbot's FS for the first time -- absolutely gorgeous and sublime , but he's GOT to land the jumps in order to win .
He also gets massive props for continuing to use music that is not overused and creating programs that push the artistic level.
Benji Schwimmer has the potential to become a kickass choreographer for figure skating -- he's two-for-two now with Abbott....I would like to see what he can do for Ice Dance (if he's already choreographed for anyone else, I'm not aware of it ).
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