U.S. Men 2012-13 news, updates & general discussion

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Sylvia, Sep 16, 2012.

  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ITA. I'm not against Jeremy going to Worlds if he skates well enough to be top 2 at Nationals, and there is a good chance of that happening. I think I just find myself frustrated terribly with the roller coaster he puts us on - I find myself thinking 'this could be the year he breaks through at Worlds.' But, it never happens and he's going to be 28 yrs. old next year.
  2. Iceman

    Iceman Well-Known Member

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    Abbott should have never left Colorado.
  3. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    ^^ While that may be true, what's done is done. The one thing Jeremy does have going for him though is that even when his tanks, his PCS stay pretty high, meaning a Jeremy-bomb is likely to still score/place better than a bomb from virtually any of the other guys in contention. What it really comes down to is, is there someone else consistent enough that we can count on to score better than a Jeremy bomb. So who may this be, Ross, but he's likely to be on the team anyway, Max?, it would be his Worlds debut, and his PCS will definitely not hold him up should he struggle, so it might not be worth the risk, Josh?, it sounds like he wants to go to JW anyway, and while we haven't seen a real bomb from him in awhile, his last few competitions he's left a lot of points on the table, and it would also be his Worlds debut, and senior international debut, so that could be a risky move as well. Adam? He has the experience and doesn't usually bomb, but with his wonky 3a and lack of a quad (so far this season), his scores likely won't be that high even with a relatively clean skate. So I think it doesn't really matter who goes to Worlds, there's going to be a lot of risk either way, and getting 3 spots will be tough but possible with any reasonable team I tend to think. I will say that I think Ross should be on the team, who joins him and if he's the number 1 or number 2 guy going in is up in the air, but I think he's sort of the go-to American guy at this point.

    I more hope we manage to get 3 spots because I'd like to see a young up-and-comer without much international experience (Josh, Max, Keegan, Jason, etc) or two make the team. We have so many good guys in the US that it's a shame getting 3 spots consistently has been a struggle, so I hope that can be changed in time for the Olympics.
  4. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Hey, I'm not sure what is meant by that pronouncement. :lol: I think Jeremy has grown so very much since leaving Colorado, as a skater, a person and an exemplary artist. His bond and his working relationship with Yuka and Jason, and especially with Yuka, is very special. I don't think Jeremy left anything he truly needed behind in Colorado, except for his family ... and they are always there for him anyway, supporting him through thick and thin. On the ice, Jeremy is Master & Commander! He just needs to amp up the "Commander" and put everything together, right time right place, and consistently!


    ETA:

    Re your comments pinky: IMO, getting 3 spots for U.S. men has not so much been "a struggle," as it has been just a miscalculation by U.S. Fed in 2011, when the three spots were lost because Worlds judges low-balled then newbies Ross and Richard who both skated clean programs, and didn't rate Ryan that highly plus Ryan didn't skate his absolute best. That's it in a nutshell. Then in 2012 with the 2 U.S. guys we all felt and hoped could and would bring the 3 spots back, they didn't skate their best and did not seem to be at full strength. That's why I say whoever goes to Worlds this season need to pace themselves and be hungry and ready. Uselessly now wondering if Ross had gone to Worlds last season, might it have made any difference, since he had medaled at NHK and at 4CCs.

    But blah, the past is the past ... these guys have to do it in the moment. Good luck to all!
    Last edited: Dec 24, 2012
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  5. johndockley92

    johndockley92 New Member

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    Don't necessarily agree with that first statement :p

    But yeah, it'd be really cool if there was a US, Japan, Russia Competition where each country sends their 3rd (or 4th depending on how many slots they had at worlds) - 12th (or 13th) place competitors to have a showdown in men and ladies. I believe that such a competition would also allow skaters to earn minimum points since it'd have three countries competing (or is it supposed to be 4?). Make the competition so that it's a week or two after Worlds and put in a rule that says those competing there cannot have competed at Sr. Worlds.
  6. Iceman

    Iceman Well-Known Member

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    I hope Evan makes it back.
  7. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Oh, ye of little faith! :drama: :cheer: ;)


    Yep, cool ... :cool: Might be great if it ever happened.
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Question I have and am interested in hearing others opinions about, could be a factor in the battle for bronze and pewter.

    I think it's safe to say Jeremy, and then Ross, will score above the rest of the field with clean skates. Richard might be able to beat Ross and will be rewarded if he skates well, that's safe enough to assume, but he's hot and cold so it's hard to tell what he will do, I can see him winning it all or being well off the podium.

    What I'm more interested in is, what do you think the judges will do regarding scores among the following guys: Aaron, Messing, Mahbanoozadeh, Rippon, Farris

    Assuming Aaron and Messing go for quads in the SP as they have been this season, and the rest do not, but all of them try for at least one quad in the FS (Max 2, the rest 1 based on what they've been trying in competition this season, although we have yet to see Rippon try for 4s yet this season, but he did last season)

    I suppose I should put Razzano in this group, but I'm not, because to me he's really a step below all those guys even though he was 5th last year, and his quad seems to be MIA this season, and without it I expect he'll be lucky to make the top 10.

    Anyways, if we go off international scoring, Max and Josh might beat out the others, but idk if we can expect that to happen, and if the USFS intends to inflate Adam's scores like last season after his recent international showings, and Armin hasn't quite blown up the international scene this season either so I wonder about his stock with the USFS right now too. Josh and Max got hammered on PCS last year, but then again neither skated very well and both have done quite well so far this season so it's hard to tell what the judges might do with them. Keegan usually does well at Nats and gets pretty generous PCS marks, but he's also wildly inconsistent and sometimes sloppy even when he hits the jumps so yeah.

    My guess at ordering/scores, assuming they go clean:

    Aaron - low 80s SP, low 160s FS
    Farris - 80 ish SP, 155-160 FS
    Mahbanoozadeh - 80 ish SP, 150-155 FS
    Messing - low 80s SP, 145-150 FS
    Rippon - 80 ish SP, 145-150 FS

    But my rough predictions may seem way off to the point of being funny to others, which is why I ask for opinions
  9. maureenfarone

    maureenfarone Active Member

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    Pinky166 just a minor point: Adam was trying 4Lz last year. I know he didn't land it at Nationals in San Jose, but don't recall about earlier in the season.

    Adam seemed to be more focused this season on 3A and not quads.
  10. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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    It does make some sense to predict total scores on the basis of how those skaters have scored in the past.

    But if we're really going to analyze it, we should look at all the different places that the scores come from, because no one person gets to give a total score in the current system.

    *What elements is the skater planning?

    *Will the skater succeed in executing what they plan?

    *Will the technical panel give them full credit what they execute or call underrotations/downgrades or lower levels? (or give credit for rotations or features they tried but didn't achieve -- surely no tech panel would give credit for content the skater didn't even attempt)

    *Will the judging panel tend to be generous or stingy with that skater's GOEs?

    *Will the judging panel tend to award high, average, or low PCS to each skater, relative to the rest of the field?

    Only the last two relate to what "the judges" will do regarding scores. But what the skater actually executes and gets credit for determines the bulk of the technical score -- especially which jumps they rotate -- even assuming they all "go clean."

    No doubt some of the skaters will have chosen to add new difficulty for Nationals, or to take out some difficulty that they haven't been executing successfully so that they can more likely go clean. But without knowing those plans, it's probably best to ask who has the highest planned base marks, who is likely to get credit for everything attempted, who is likely to get additional rewards in GOEs and/or PCS.

    E.g., PCS in the 8s can outweigh a couple of triples vs. PCS in the 6s, but two quads will probably trump two popped jumps even with a significant PCS advantage.
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I was talking about 4s not 4lz. I think Adam may try 4s in his FS at Nationals as he did most of last season. He was trying 4lz early last season but it was nearly always << plus 2 footed so he switched to the salchow instead. I agree 3a seems to be his focus this season, but I think he probably knows he'll need to try a quad in his FS at Nationals have a real shot at making the World or even 4CC teams.

    Anyways as to what the guys plan, I'll do my research at their layouts and make a new post regarding my findings, but I think Max is the only one that plans two quads in his FS, and I think Max and Keegan will be the only two to go for quads in the SP (Armin has before but not with much success and didn't at Ice Challenge, and even Keegan did not try it at all his fall comps so could potentially opt out of it in the SP). Max also has both 3a in the 2nd half of his FS, which I don't think any of the other guys do. Josh does 3a-3t in his FS and I don't think any of the others do, but that doesn't matter as much b/c it doesn't really affect BV.

    Max has the edge technically, in terms of the others, their planned content should look similar (no quad in SP, with the exception of maybe Keegan, but he doesn't do it in combination, one quad attempt not in combination in FS, two 3a attempts in FS, one in combination and one in the second half).

    So basically my question is, assuming Armin, Adam, Josh, and Keegan go out and attempt and land all the same jumps (SP: 3a, 3f/3lz-3t, 3lz/3f and FS: 4t/4s, 3a x2, 3f/3lz x2, one of each of the remaining triples, a 3-3 of some sort in there, and 2a depending on 3 jump combo of choice) how will their scores stack up? Because I have really no idea.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2013
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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  13. Kathryn2001

    Kathryn2001 Member

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    OK, I am a total lurker here on FSU and rarely post, but I'm going to throw in my 2 cents here....since I've been a huge skating fan for many years and intent observer of all our US men vs all the international guys. Folks, I just don't see our US guys getting us 3 spots at Worlds this year. Don't get me wrong, I would absolutely LOVE to be wrong. Unless Jeremy totally can rid himself of his "head" problems that haven't allowed him to be consistent from one big competition to the next, and especially to be able to do well at a Worlds or Olympics, it's not going to happen. I hope it does, I totally love his skating, but his history gives me no encouragement or high expectation.
    Ross has done well this year and I'm hoping he can keep it up through Worlds, but alas, it hasn't happened yet and the int'l judges only "might" be kind to him if he goes clean with high technical content.
    The rest of the men just haven't shown they can do it consistently when it counts and I can't trust that any of them, including Rippon whom I love, to get us 3 spots...meaning amazing performances at BOTH Nationals and Worlds. Against Hanyu, Chan, Dai, Mura, Fernandez....our US guys aren't cutting it this year. Like I said, nothing would make be happier than being wrong about this. But I'm being realistic.
  14. BreakfastClub

    BreakfastClub Active Member

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    If they land everything w/same TES base, the pecking order for GOE and PCS is likely :p ...

    1. Adam (int'l reputation & experience, best presentation)
    2. Josh (peaking in juniors internationally and v. good presentation that keeps getting better)
    3. Armin (good preso but can lack power, had good junior int'l career but he's getting removed from those years and his senior int'l results have been mediocre...)
    4. Keegan (USFS always hoses him... he could be a real showman but he's packaged all wrong and doesn't seem to be progressing any longer... :shuffle:)

    I see the US men in 4 groups:
    Jeremy, Ross, Ricky and Adam are the top 4, they will be skating to lose a spot on the podium. Ross and Jeremy are most likely to take gold and are the only who could be talked about as locks for the podium. Ross is the toughest competitor, but Jeremy is the USFS darling and therefore the favorite even if he never has had the intense competitive fire/mental game needed to put his massive talent on an elite international podium. Also feel like Jeremy is pretty much past his athletic prime. Ricky is a headcase but the USFS loves him, and if he's clean he's in. Adam needs to show up landing at least the 3axel or he's out and could be looking at 5th or 6th place.

    Josh and Armin could easily land on the podium with serious mistakes from any of the above. Josh is the all-around package and most likely to challenge, Armin is solid and steady but unspectacular, I don't think either of these guys could win though. Maybe Josh if he has the skates of his life and the four above all really miss.

    Jason, Max, Stephen, Doug, Keegan and Brandon round out the top 12 with maybe outside shots at lower rungs of the podium. If Jason had a consistent axel and quad he'd easily be in the top group with his awesome presentation and programs but without either of the big jumps he's left languishing down in in the 6th-7th range. Stephen could surprise with a clean performance but I feel like his star has fallen permanently from when he looked like he might be the next big thing c. 2007-08. Max is a jumper but needs to prove consistency and aspects of his presentation to challenge for the top spots. Doug is a lovely skater with good jumping but he needs to skate clean and get better programs with more interesting and challenging choreography. Keegan needs to prove consistency too, and really needs better programs and packaging - I can't put my finger on why it's not working for him because his programs always have a well thought-out theme and are interesting, but for some reason it's just not working for him. Brandon is the wild card jumper with the potential for another 2009 or a total meltdown.
  15. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    All good observations. Now I will make one of my own.

    The USFSA will pick whomever earns it, just like they did back in 2011 when they left Jeremy Abbott off the team (not to mention Adam Rippon) and instead sent two unproven youngsters and a showman with quads galore! :cool:

    Despite the fact that Jeremy Abbott is my favorite, I would not say he is a lock for the team, no way. He is not a Michelle Kwan, or even an Evan Lysacek. He still has no World or Olympic medals to his name, nor do any of the others competing at Nationals this year.

    Therefore, it honestly is anybody's game, they ALL have a shot at it, young, old, junior, senior, it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is that they bring their *A* game. :hat1:

    And on that score, I wouldn't be surprised to see a quadster come through and finally nail all his quads. Remember, the USFSA has to think of next year, the Olympics, they need at least one guy that can go head to head with all the other quadsters in the world. Actually it kinda reminds me of 2002, when Sarah Hughes made the team based on her phenomenal technical ability combined with her lovely artistry. Jmho. :)

    ps: Josh Farris reminds me of Sarah...
  16. merrywidow

    merrywidow Well-Known Member

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    I see Max Aaron being in the top 4 or 5, not Adam Rippon. Max has the most consistent quad of all our men plus the triple axle. IMO Max is a legitimate contender & is working on improving his presentation.
  17. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting observations and I agree for the most part, but I'm not so sure about Adam being in the top group or even first out of the guys I mentioned because I'm not sure he'll even attempt a quad at Nationals and if his fall showings are any indication, that 3a isn't quite solid yet either, so that's going to hurt him a lot in this field as there are a good half dozen guys who do have solid 3axels and will try (a) quad(s) and are likely to have more success with their attempts (in terms of landing and rotation) than Adam, and that could make a difference. Then the other issue is his jumps won't pick up much GOE even if they are cleanly landed just because his jumps are generally small and can be rather scratchy with not the best flow outs. Then he was also 13th at Worlds last year (it wasn't a meltdown either - more a reflection of where he really stands internationally) and just ok at his GPs this fall, his scores being lower than quite a few men who placed behind him at Nationals last year, so I'm uncertain about his current stock status with the USFS.

    Armin got pretty generous marks in the SP at Nats last year, but not so much in the FS, and the year before he also skated a beautiful FS but was scored pretty modestly again. His jumps have improved under Krall, especially the 3a which is now consistent, but they generally don't pick up much GOE either, and his spins while nice aren't quite on-par with Adam. PCS internationally are a bit below Rippon, but Armin's stock with USFS may be a bit higher than Adam's right now so it's hard to tell what the judges will do with his PCS. He's been solid this fall, but injuries and silly mistakes seem to have held him back a bit, and the quad is not as consistent now as it was looking over the summer.

    Josh, Keegan, and Max are really the question marks for me - Keegan and Max because they have such limited international exposure, and Josh because he's still competing in juniors internationally and USFS seems to be holding off on promoting him until the next quadrennial. With a 4th or 5th place finish, Josh would likely just get sent to JW anyways, the only thing I can think of is that the USFS must know the international judges rate Josh highly judging from his marks at ISU events, and Josh is also a strong jumper AND spinner which can't be said of the other guys in his tier, his 3a is quite solid, and his 4t is coming along, landing a beauty at JGP Lake Placid and falling on a fully rotated attempt at the JGPF (and that was on benadryl too!). His consistency in general is also pretty good, he didn't have a great FS at his last two international events this fall, but it's worth noting that he was able to successfully land two 3a in both of those programs, and score over 210 total points at both those events (and those are junior programs, in seniors that's more like 215 points). So the one thing I wonder is if the USFS might not back him thinking he'd be a good person to send to Sochi should the US men get 3 spots for the team, especially with the status of the Johnny and Evan comebacks being what they are and the continued consistency issues of Abbott and Dornbush.

    As for Max and Keegan, it's hard to tell what the judges will do. Max's 4s is really quite consistent, which is a huge advantage in this field as all the other guys with quads in their arsenals are still at a hit-or-miss (or worse) stage at this point. His 3a is also consistent, and his jumps can get decent GOE. Spins are not great and his very short legs don't make for great lines, presentation in general needs work, but at his senior Bs his PCS were still competitive and comparable to the likes of Rippon, Mahbanoozadeh, Farris, even Dornbush. As for Keegan, he has some great spins but GOE on jumps is a big concern because while his jumps are massive, they are often messy, resulting too frequently in very low FS scores despite executing fairly ambitious content. His 4t isn't all that consistent and his 3a, while explosive and usually landed, is not always a big point getter for him. PCS similarly needs work, although like Max, at senior Bs they have been perfectly adequate, his performance ability and energy seeming to make up for some of his obvious lack of polish. They are both young too, not as young as Josh and have aged out of juniors, so USFS I could see wanting to hold off until 2018 for these two as well, but at the same time, with Max in particular, if they are looking for someone who has the technical goods to keep up with the Japanese, Fernandez, and Chan, then Max is the best candidate, and with a 4CC and/or Worlds berth this season could set himself up nicely to be a solid 2nd or 3rd member of the Olympic team next year.

    Hard to tell what will happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if USFS's love fest with Rippon has ended and if his scores and placement will be much less generous at Nationals this year than in the past. At this point I really think someone like Josh, Max, or even Keegan when he's on, are stronger skaters than Rippon, who just doesn't have the strongest jumps or basics despite being a lovely spinner with a nice ethereal quality to his skating. Armin might have better luck if he can get his 4t more consistent, his issue is more that he currently doesn't stand out in any one area - quality of jumps, consistency, spins, presentation, jump difficulty, even though he is quite solid across all.
  18. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Pretty fair assessments all. We'll shortly find out. :)
  19. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Rippon doesn't have the momentum that others have built up with their most recent stellar competitions (Miner's bronze at NHK Trophy and Aaron's big Sectionals win, to name just two examples), and so it's fair to say he appears to have underdog status heading into Nationals. However, I would like point out that last year was the first time Rippon performed a clean SP as a senior at Nationals (on his 4th try) and he delivered under pressure while skating 2nd in the start order. I believe he deserved his scores/placement in San Jose based on how he skated in both programs, relative to the rest of the field, and earned the silver medal fairly.

    Here's the British Eurosport broadcast of Rippon's 12/30/12 Oberstdorf gala performance to "After Tonight" by Justin Nozuka that he debuted at the Skating & Gymnastics show in Jamestown, NY last month: http://youtube.com/watch?v=pMdsekiWEk4

    BTW, for the quad-obsessed ;), I'm compiling this season's quad stats for the U.S. men and will post them later.
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2013
  20. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    IMO, the realistic fight for spots on the World team we will only be among Abbott, Dornbush, and Miner based on - 1) scores this season, 2) past experience and 3) credibility w/ judging panels at big international competitions.

    Aaron is probably the 1st long shot at this triumvirate based on growing consistency, improving PCS, big scores and just by virtue of being THE US man with best quads. What holds him back right now is his lack of any major international experience. If the US had 3 spots for Worlds, he would have a much better shot due to the fact he could go theoretically as the no. 3 US man and not be responsible for finishing high up to gain 3 spots. As it is w/ 2 men, the USFSA undoubtedly wants the any 2 of the triumvirate at '13 Worlds based on reputation.

    Messing is probably the 2nd long shot. I think the USFSA will note that Messing rocked his Senior B events this season and really look for opportunities to promote him should he continue upward.

    Farris is probably not a shot ... this year. He will be sent to Junior Worlds unless he were to win Nationals IMO or finish 2nd by rocking the LP or something, really standing out. I don't think that will happen. I do think he will do well enough to put a smile on many people's faces and lift spirits, but just not enough to be put on a Senior Worlds team w/ only 2 spots and so many other contenders.

    Mahbanoozadeh is even further back. Granted, he is capable of putting himself in the mix. He did quite well at '12 nationals after an abysmal GP series in the Fall of '11. But I wonder how much longer the USFSA and judges will give him any benefit of the doubt. After showing promise early this season, he kind of tanked (again). Also, I think he put attending Dartmouth on hold to pursue skating. There has to be a question in the minds of the skating community how much longer he will be around and how much to invest in him.

    I will say if Rippon pulls it back together by Nationals, he might be considered. Might. But his reputation in big international competitions is really sliding. Look at his marks on the GP series this season. Dornbush w/ graver mistakes was easily ahead of him at NHK. At best, he is around Messing or Farris just based on past glories. It is sad because watching him under Rafael Arutunian, his skating is 'bigger'. It's just unfortunate that the judges seem to be giving up on him.

    Brown is retooling himself nicely and looks to have at least a 3x. If he skates well, he could be in the final group of senior men at nationals, but would only be considered as a top contender for Jr. Worlds. I think if he puts it together at Nationals, he could be placed in front of a faltering Rippon or Mahbanoozadeh.
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2013
  21. Iceman

    Iceman Well-Known Member

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    The US has only one man in the top ten season world rankings, Miner. Dornbush ranks 11th. Believe it or not, even Kevin Reynolds
    outranks Abbott. Imo the US's best chance for getting three spots for the OLympics is Evan, assuming he is in top form, and Miner or Dornbush.
  22. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    ISU Season Rankings are boosted with Senior B competitions (top 5 finishers receive ranking points) added to Senior Grand Prix comps. (top 8 finishers receive points).

    ETA::
    2 GP & 1 Sr B: Dornbush, Miner, Weir
    2 GP: Abbott, Rippon
    1 GP & 2 Sr B: Mahbanoozadeh (replaced Lysacek at SA)
    1 GP & 1 Sr B: Razzano
    2 Sr B: Aaron, Messing
    1 Sr B: Carriere, Dolensky
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2013
  23. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not holding my breath for Dornbush. I'm really big fan of his skating, but I'm not convinced he's not a headcase. Jeremy is obviously one too, but at least his PCS will allow him to outscore a Dornbush bomb even if he himself bombs. If Ricky earns the spot, by all means he should be sent, when he's "on", I enjoy his skating more than Miner's and think he could outscore Miner internationally too, it's just a question of will he deliver. Ross does not have the consistency with the quad yet, but apart from Aaron no one else really does either, and he is capable of landing a nice one at least and his 3a is very consistent as are most of the rest of his jumps at this point. Ross is probably the safest bet, the question is, who is the best person to send with him? I would almost say Aaron merely due to his jump consistency and impressive content, but, he really does not have much international experience, and I do worry about him receiving Voronov/Nan Song-like treatment, in other words his PCS will be low, and if he skates a jam packed program nearly perfectly, it won't matter and he'll be able to score pretty well anyways just due to TES but once a mistake or two is made, the scores go crashing into mediocrity and at that point an almost meltdown from Abbott, error-ridden Dornbush, or standard performance Farris might be able to score higher. So in that sense, Jeremy is probably the most logical second candidate, because on the off-chance he does deliver at Worlds, he'll be able to place way higher than any of our other men can really hope for.

    I also really like Messing but consistency is not his friend and I think his tendency to tank his FS won't go unnoticed by the USFS, so unless he really rocks Nats, I'm not sure he's even the 2nd longshot, I think realistically Farris and Mahbanoozadeh, maybe Rippon depending on how inflated his PCS are and if he can land that 3a cleanly, could place ahead of him. But the talent is certainly there and if he DOES deliver, I expect big scores.

    I also wonder how high a clean FS from Farris could score, just because it seems like he always gives up a bunch of points, but with the extra step sequence and the strength of his jumps and spins, if he hits, lands his jumps, and gets the level 4s on spins and steps he's capable of, idk I think he could rack up a pretty high TES. You are probably right though, he and Brown still being age eligible for juniors is a huge asset to the USFS because not only does it give them very good odds to max out JGP slots the following season and keep 3 men's spots on that team, but it also gives them more flexibility for maxing out post-Nationals international assignments among the top men in this very deep field we have. I don't think there's any way Josh goes to Worlds this season, but I do wonder about 4CC if he were to place say 3rd or 4th (which I'm not expecting, but depending on Dornbush and even Abbott such an outcome might not be completely bonkers) - but more likely they'd pass on him and send the next person in line (assuming its not Brown or Choate - the only other senior men still eligible for JW), judging from how they sent Agnes and Christina to JW instead of 4CC after placing 4th and 5th at senior nats in 2011, then Christina again in 2012 after again being 5th.

    In any event, I am curious about 4CC after Japan went with the top 3 for 4CC instead of mixing it up, I wonder if USFS might potentially do the same, esp. because Alissa apparently complained about wanting to go to 4CC but not getting sent last year when she was 2nd at Nats...
  24. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Quads landed successfully (called rotated and -2 GOE & higher) in international competition this fall and/or at U.S. Sectionals in November:

    3: Aaron 4S+2T in SP & 4S in Salt Lake Sr B; 4S+3T in Midwestern Sectionals FS
    2: Dornbush 4T+2T in Finlandia SP; 4T in GP Russia SP
    2: Messing 4T (-2 GOE) in Nebelhorn FS; 4T (-1 GOE) in Pacific Sectionals SP
    1: Miner 4S in NHK Trophy FS
    1: Farris 4T in Lake Placid JGP FS
    1: Razzano 4T in Skate America FS
    1: Mahbanoozadeh 4T (-1 GOE) in Salt Lake Sr B SP
    1: Mroz 4T (-2 GOE) in Midwestern Sectionals FS

    More stats on attempts, including summer comps, etc. to come later.
  25. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    I agree. I don't see the judges giving Abbott any particular benefit of the doubt, because the only thing he has done consistently is lay eggs at the big events. :shuffle:
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  26. PeterG

    PeterG Argle-Bargle-ist

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    1st - 2009 Grand Prix Final
    5th - 2010 Worlds
    3rd - 2007 FCC
    3rd - 2011 FCC

    I could only dream of laying those kinds of eggs... :sigh:
  27. centerpt1

    centerpt1 Active Member

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    Plus, last two Worlds he went to, he was the highest scoring US males single skater. Abbott not at his best is still better than the (US) rest.

    That may be changing though. I think it depends on how his back is doing now. He doesn't skate well when he's injured.
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  28. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    I'll give you the GPF, but I don't consider FCC a big event. I'm talking about pressure-cooker events when something is really at stake.

    The 5th place was an anemic effort at a depleted post-Olympic Worlds; add back in Lysacek, Plushenko, Lambiel, Weir, etc. and he would have been 8-9th at best (in other words, his usual).

    I'm a fan of his skating, but I'm not blind to the fact that he has virtually no head for competition, and his competitive record to date falls far short of his talent, which is too bad.
  29. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I basically agree. Jeremy's results are more indicative of how good of a skater he is...if he put it together, he easily could be a World and Olympic Medalist (maybe not now as the quad is so crucial, but definitely before), but the closest he's come is 5th in a weak field missing a bunch of top guns. As for 4CC, I do think it is a pretty big event, but it's not like he's ever won, two bronzes sort of shows the same things as his Worlds showings. GPF is also an interesting event because the field is so small and qualifying events can be unevenly stacked, so while it's a big deal he won, to do so he only needed to beat 5 other skaters, and while these are theoretically the 5 best skaters in the World at the time, qualification oddities and uneven events, withdrawals, etc. can make it so that sometimes, a few of the skaters at the GPF aren't really the top 6 best in the World but got lucky with events/qualification stats/conveniently had a SOTL at a GP event, etc. Like Machida this year, he's really a 2nd or 3rd tier skater, but he made the GPF. In any events, Worlds is a big event with a lot of good entrants so a good placement there is harder to achieve and more indicative of one's competitiveness compared to the GPF. Jeremy is just SO good that his results are frustrating...his scores and placements are generally pretty decent, but for the most part, he's gotten these scores and placements skating about 50% of his capabilities, so that's more the issue. A Jeremy bomb sure might score about as well as a decent effort from most of the other guys, but if we're expecting Jeremy to basically bomb, in that sense, it makes sense to give the others a shot as the outcomes are likely to be similar...but it's just that these other guys aren't capable of the kind of scores and placement Jeremy could get if he were to simply deliver at Worlds. So that's why it's tricky.
  30. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    I'm with PeterG! If Jeremy Abbott is a "consistently egg-laying at big events" kinda skater, then I think dose is some mighty fine egg-laying results. Ha! Perhaps he'll lay some golden eggs in the near future.

    The way Jeremy oozes across the ice, deftly painting masterpieces as a three-time U.S. National Champion, he sure knows how to crack those eggs, so I'm not gonna get too hung up on whether or not he has a "head for competition." He does have a mighty fine head on his shoulders, and a rockin' bod too. If figure skating was so d**n easy, we'd all be out there "laying eggs." As it is, most figure skaters never have the opportunity to find out if they even have eggs in them worthy of hatching. :lol:

    Go Jeremy! Go Ross! Go all you U.S. guys and ladies! May pigs fly and chickens scatter! :rollin:
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  31. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think it's just as important to note their trends in completing Quads-

    It appears based on the chronology of the season that Aaron, Messing, Miner and Mroz have done better w/ the quad as the season progressed.
    It appears that Dornbush, Farris, Razzano and Mahbanoozadeh have fared worse as the season progressed (although Farris has a legitimate excuse: The allergic reaction at JGPF). Dornbush is perhaps not doing worse, just really uneven.
  32. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    I think nagging injuries are a legitimate excuse as well and not all skaters talk about them publicly (Dornbush and Mahbanoozadeh may have, IIRC). Neither Razzano nor Mahbanoozadeh attempted any quads at their last competition, Ice Challenge, in November. ETA that Armin opened his FS with a 2T so a quad likely was planned.

    ETA:

    Quad stats for Max Aaron:
    Broadmoor SP Only (June): 4S fall (in Jumps comp. he landed a 4S+2T+2Lo & a 4T)
    Liberty (July): 4S fall in SP; landed 4S (-1 GOE) in FS
    Glacier Falls (Aug.): 2S+1T in SP; 4S< fall in FS
    Salt Lake Senior B (Sept.): 4S+2T in SP, 4S in FS
    Cup of Nice (Oct.): 4S fall in SP; 2S in FS
    Midwestern Sectionals (Nov.): 4S fall in SP; 4S+3T in FS (+1.75 GOE, 16.35 points!)

    Ross Miner:
    Liberty (July): 4T< fall in SP; 4S fall in FS
    Cranberry Open SP only (Aug.): 4S fall
    (In a Champs Camp article in late Aug., he mentioned landing a 4S in at least one of his programs before officials there.)
    Salt Lake Sr B (Sept.): 4S< fall in SP; 2S in FS
    Skate Canada (late Oct.): 4S fell out/hand down (-3 GOE, 7.50 points); 2S in FS, followed by 7 of 8 planned triples landed
    NHK Trophy (Nov.): 2S in SP; 4S landed in FS, 7 triples landed total

    Richard Dornbush:
    LA Open (July): It was posted that he missed both 4T attempts in his FS, don't know if he tried it in SP (no detailed protocols available to check)
    Glacier Falls (Aug.): 4T (+1.50 GOE, 11.80 points) in SP; 4T (-1.25/9.05 points), 4T+SEQ fall in FS
    Golden West (Sept.): 4T fall in SP; fell on both his 4T attempts in FS
    Finlandia (Oct.): 3T in SP; landed 4T+2T, fell on 2nd 4T, then landed 7 of 7 planned triples in FS
    Rostelecom Cup (Nov.): 4T (+1.29 GOE, 11.59 points) in SP; fell on 4T in FS, followed by 7 of 8 triples landed
    NHK (Nov.): 4T fall in SP; 2T, 4T fall in FS, then landed all 7 planned triples afterwards

    Keegan Messing:
    Liberty (July): no quad attempt in SP (he won) or FS
    Glacier Falls (Aug.): 4T<<+2T (-1.40 GOE, 4.00 points); 4T< fall in FS
    Nebelhorn (Sept.): did not attempt quad in SP; landed a flawed 4T (-2.14 GOE, 8.16 points out of BV of 10.30) in FS
    Cup of Nice (Oct.): clean SP with no quad attempt (80 points); 4T< fall in FS
    Pacific Sectionals (Nov.): 4T (-1 GOE) in SP (80 points); landed a flawed 4T (-2.75 GOE, 7.55 points) in FS

    Armin Mahbanoozadeh:
    Vail (July): landed 4T in both SP & FS, according to reports
    Salt Lake Sr B (Sept): landed 4T (-1 GOE, 9.30 points) in SP; 4T fall in FS
    Skate America (Oct.): 4T fall in SP; 4T< fall in FS
    Ice Challenge (Nov.): did not attempt 4T in SP; opened FS with 2T

    Douglas Razzano:
    Golden West (Sept.): 2T in SP; opened FS with 3T
    Skate America (Oct.): 4T< fall in SP; landed 4T in FS
    Ice Challenge (Nov.): clean SP with no quad attempt; opened FS with 3T

    Joshua Farris:
    JGP Lake Placid (late Aug./early Sept.): landed 4T (+1 GOE) in FS
    JGP Slovenia (late Sept.): after opening 3A fall in FS, landed 3T
    JGP Final (early Dec.): 4T fall in FS

    Brandon Mroz:
    Broadmoor SP Only (June): 4Lo fall
    Liberty (July): 4Lo< fall (5.4 points out of BV of 8.4) in SP; landed a flawed 4Lo (-2 GOE, 10 points out of BV of 12) in FS
    Glacier Falls (Aug.): 1Lo in SP; 4Lo<< fall in FS
    Midwestern Sectionals (Nov.): 4T< fall in SP; landed a flawed 4T (-2 GOE, 8.30 points) in FS

    Jeremy Abbott:
    Skate America (Oct.): 4T< fall in both SP and FS
    TEB (Nov.): clean SP with no quad attempt (81 points); 4T<< (-1.9 GOE, 2.2 points) in FS
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2013
  33. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Armin definitely was dealing with injuries this fall, he tweeted and I think a couple articles mentioned him having a sprained ankle around Skate America. As for Farris, he did rotate the attempt at the GPF despite the allergic reaction and benadryl, and the 4t he landed in Lake Placid was a beauty (+1s and +2s for GOE), as for Slovenia, he didn't attempt the quad after unexpectedly falling on his opening 3a, usually his money jump which he does in combo with 3t, so I think that was more of a spur of the moment decision where his hip may have been out of alignment from the rough fall and he didn't want to risk falling again on the quad, especially where he had another 3a coming up late in the program that he knew he had to do in combination to get credit for. So there's not much data to judge from there, but rotating both attempts and landing one of them very well speaks to a decent mastery of the jump. I think Armin, too, has a pretty decent/consistent 4t and that the injuries just affected him this fall more than he maybe wants to mention publicly just so as to not sound like a complainer making excuses. Dornbush yeah, he's hot and cold, but considering he plans 2 4t in his FS, you would think that the jump is quite consistent for him at least in training.

    Ross I expect will take the 4s out of his SP at Nats unless he's really got it down pat now. I doubt Jeremy will go for the quad in his SP at Nats, and if he does, I don't expect him to land it (or if he lands it, knowing him he might botch the 3a or combo instead anyways), meaning that Dornbush may be the only man of real concern going for a quad in the SP, and he has yet to skate a clean SP this season so Ross going for a clean SP is likely a safer bet than going for the 4s and risk popping it or falling (esp if a < or << accompanies the fall). Max will go for the quad in the SP but last season even with that 4s he only scored a 76 and Ross without a quad, and the miscue on the combo, still placed ahead. Keegan may go for 4t in the SP as well, but I think the highest he's scored for his SP this season is 80 which Ross at Nats can probably top with just a clean, quadless SP this season. And who knows, if Abbott and Miner opt out of trying the quad in the SP and others like Dornbush, Messing, Mahbanoozadeh, Mroz, Razzano (the only other men in the field that I would think might try a quad in the SP, apart from Aaron whose 4s is so consistent I think he will go for it regardless) get word of it, I wonder if they might follow suit and forego the quad in the SP to increase the odds of skating clean.
  34. centerpt1

    centerpt1 Active Member

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    It may come down to who is least injured , or at least who does best with what injuries they have.
  35. skatesindreams

    skatesindreams Well-Known Member

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    So true!
  36. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    @USFigureSkating tweeted these excerpts from Jeremy Abbott's pre-Nationals media teleconference call today:
    ETA: @LynnRutherford tweeted:
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2013
  37. sus2850

    sus2850 Member

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    I guess he will no longer try to do the two 3A back to back...
  38. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    I thought that was sort of cool, actually. Difficult and a nice highlight on the music. But I guess if he can't hit it, it doesn't really matter.
  39. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    I thought is was so cool from the point of view of choreography and music! Gorgeous. But yah, if Jeremy cannot do it, there is no point. I appreciate the thought though.
  40. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    I just want/wish he would skate clean at Worlds, but another mind-blowing perfect performance at Nationals isn't bad either. :cool::hat1: