U.S. Ladies [#9]: Battle to/in Boston

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Nov 12, 2013.

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  1. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    ^ True, but Gold has yet to put two clean programs together, and supposedly she is changing her SP. Wagner had some trouble at the GPF (not as bad as last year, though), but I think she can still successfully defend her national title. World's aside, she has been consistently bringing home the hardware since her 2012 Nat's win. Despite all the hype, Gold has been hit-and-miss since her Sr. debut.

    I really admire Wagner. She called herself the "Almost Girl" and even though she admittedly isn't the best at any one thing, she successfully worked her a$$ off to become more than just the bronze-winning also-ran that she was a few years ago.
     
  2. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    I might get flamed for this because there are some Michelle ubers on these boards, but Ashley is similar to Michelle. Jump and spin wise, nothing will blow your socks off (except Ashley's loop), but they're consistent and play the game well. I think Ashley will defend her National title again this year. The judges will give her a big PCS margin and none of the other girls will chase that.
     
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  3. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Well, Ashley hasn't peaked at all this season, so I don't think that'll happen. Ashley peaked way too early last season during the GP and put in two nearly flawless LPs on the GP. This year, she hasn't really put in a phenomenal LP performance.

    I was thinking that maybe she should move the loop to where the double axel is and do a falling leap out of that. She could move the 2 axel to where the triple loop is in the program and add the 3 jump combo there. She won't lose much at all by doing that and it'll be a safer jump layout.

    So something like this:

    3flip-3toe
    3loop (falling leap out of it)
    3 sal
    ---half way point
    3 loop-2axel
    3lutz
    2axel-2toe-2loop (or toe)--I hope she does a loop. She loses so much speed when she does two double toes.
    3 flip
     
  4. Dilng

    Dilng Well-Known Member

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    I'm not a Michelle uber, but I totally disagree. Michelle was very musical and had wonderful arms. She had a lot of programs that were really special and quite honestly Ashley hasn't had any program that has been special. She does work hard, but she doesn't have Michelle's musicality or presence on the ice. Her programs just aren't memorable. I still love Michelle's Song of the Black Swan. Even when she made mistakes she was stunning when she skated that program. :swoon:
     
  5. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    But I like the flip and 2 loops at the back end for bonus points. She did it last year, so I'm hopeful it's just a matter of finding a place for the 3 jump combo
     
  6. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    I meant technically, not artistically. Jumping wise and spin wise the two don't stand out much and just do the two good enough, but they're nothing spectacular.
     
  7. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Well, she would only lose about two tenths for putting the loop in the first half and putting the 2 axel in the second half as a three jump combo. I wouldn't put the 3 jump combo on the second triple loop.

    Ashley has done her three jump combo before on the triple loop, and it kills her GOE on that jump because she lands the two double toes at the end with almost no flow coming out. It would be better to put the 3 jump combo with the double axel and move it to the second half.

    Fingers crossed that Ashley reads this and takes this suggestion!!!
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2013
  8. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    That layout actually gets her a teeny bit less than her current layout (45.19 to 45.01).

    I wish she'd learned 2a-1/2loop-3sal. The sal is such a secure jump for her, and it earns more points than most 3 jump combos that she could do. It would also allow her to replace the 3loop2a with a presumably more secure 3loop2t.

    I would keep the current layout except for putting the 3loop2toe as the 3rd jumping pass and putting the 2a-1/2l-3sal in place of the 3loop-2a series. Then she would finish with 3 solo triples, which would be easier. This layout would get her 45.94. It's not a huge gain, but - if the 1/2loop -3sal was a possibility - it would be easier.
     
  9. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Yep, that layout would only be about 2 tenths less. It would be easier to execute and possibly better for her GOE wise, so she could easily make up for the 2 tenth loss.

    The judges also love her 3loop-2axel more than her 3 loop-2toe. Makes more sense to go for the 3loop-2axel (extra 0.5 and better GOE). I think the 2a-1/2loop-3sal is too risky, considering the double axel is not one of Ashley's stronger jumps.
     
  10. Blondie12

    Blondie12 New Member

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    I would add Sam and Courtney to that list. There is no way the US, with its depth, will send someone who did not even skate on the Senior Circuit this year. Junior programs are different than senior ones, and many do not successfully make the jump to the senior level (like Caroline). The timing is different and many do not do as well their first season as a senior bc there are adjustments to be made. Gracie, a few years ago, did well on the Junior Circuit and they did not even send her to worlds that year, even though the senior alternatives were not that great and there was much talk of sending her to worlds on this board. USFG does not have a history of sending people from the Junior Circuit to senior events that same season especially worlds or Olympics. Edmunds may be sent to 4CC and maybe even worlds if some of the Olympics ladies opt out of worlds. But I doubt she will be sent to the Olympics, unless there is a major major major splatfest of at least 5 ladies at nationals. Reputation matters in this sport, especially w PCS and ladies on the Junior Circuit have not developed that reputation. At least one of the 5 ladies will be upheld w PCS even if they make technical errors, so I think any skater on the Junior Circuit has virtually no chance at Olympics. Edmund for 2018 maybe.

    In fact that may be part of the problem w USFS. Russia gets their ladies out on the Grand Prix as soon as they are age eligible. We don't all the time. If USFG was seriously considering Edmunds for Olympics, she would have been on the Senior Circuit. The level of pressure is totally different. No country will send someone who has no intl senior experience to have their senior intl debut be the Olympics. Maybe minor countries do but none of the major countries have to do that. Like there is not even talk of Russia sending any of the ladies from the GPF Junior to Sochi. Even though they have only 2 spots, those ladies are not even in the conversation about whether Russia will send them- and all three finished above Edmunds.

    I don't think any of the medalists from the Junior Grand Prix final from any country are even in the conversation about being sent to the Olympics.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2013
  11. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    Uber here to make a comment LOL.

    Ashley is similar to Michelle I think in her determination to want to win-you can tell the difference between 2010 and prior, to after 2010. Ashley has a fire in her. I admire her for the changes she has made in the last 4 years. She has been determined to be the US #1. In that respect, I agree that she is similar to Michelle-especially now by putting it all out there when she skates. She wants to win, wants to be the best, and she is letting everyone know. IMO she is the only lock for a spot on the Olympic Team and it is due to nothing other than her hard work the past 4 years. She really grew as a competitor. She stepped it up from being a second tier skater to a podium contender. We have not had that since Michelle and Sasha.

    But IMO her actual skating is nothing similar to Michelle.

    I think Ashley has a great shot at broze at the olympics where as bronze (and silver) was seen as a failure for Michelle. For Ashley, it would be a success. Kind of the same as Joannie.

    .
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2013
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Best international technical score (TES) for last two seasons - 2013/14 season TES is bolded

    Short program:
    38.53 Gold (GP Skate Canada 2013)
    37.77 Chen (JGP Kosice 2013)
    - JR in U.S.
    36.39 Wagner (Grand Prix Final 2013/14)
    35.89 Wang (JGP Czech Skate 2013)

    35.44 Zawadzki ((U.S. Int. FS Classic 2012)
    33.96 Gao (GP Skate Canada 2013)
    33.84 Miller (Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13)
    33.64 Glenn (JGP Czech Skate 2013) - JR in U.S.
    33.35 Edmunds (JGP Mexico Cup 2013)
    32.45 Nagasu (GP Rostelecom Cup 2013)
    32.36 Zawadzki (GP Rostelecom Cup 2013)

    31.97 Keiser (JGP Bosphorus 2012)
    31.80 Hicks (U.S. Int. FS Classic 2013)
    31.30 Cain (Nebelhorn Trophy 2013)

    31.12 Cesario (JGP Austria 2012)
    31.11 Baga (Cup of Nice 2013)
    30.59 Lam (Finlandia Trophy 2013)
    30.52 Cesario (GP Trophee Bompard 2013)

    30.38 Long (JGP Sencila Bled Cup 2012)
    28.90 Siraj (JGP Riga Cup 2013)
    27.67 Zhang (GP Skate Canada 2012)
    26.55 Bell (JGP Mexico Cup 2013)
    24.64 Pierce (JGP Tallinn Cup 2013)
    - JR in U.S.
    20.93 Flatt (GP Skate America 2012)

    Free skate:
    65.28 Gold (World Team Trophy 2013)
    63.83 Wagner (GP Skate America 2012)
    62.95 Edmunds (Junior Grand Prix Final 2013/14)
    62.31 Hicks (GP Skate Canada 2013)
    62.28 Chen (JGP Kosice 2013)
    - JR in U.S.
    61.81 Wagner (GP Trophee Bompard 2013)
    60.64 Gao (GP Skate America 2012)
    59.03 Cesario (GP Trophee Bompard 2013)
    58.90 Wang (Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13)
    58.36 Glenn (JGP Czech Skate 2013) - JR in U.S.
    58.04 Keiser (JGP Bosphorus 2012)
    57.95 Nagasu (GP Rostelecom Cup 2013)
    56.16 Miller (Junior Grand Prix Final 2012/13)
    56.09 Gold (GP Skate Canada 2013)
    53.95 Gao (GP Skate Canada 2013)
    53.54 Long (JGP Kosice 2013)
    52.95 Bell (JGP Mexico Cup 2013)

    51.61 Zawadzki (GP NHK Trophy 2012)
    51.51 Cain (Nebelhorn Trophy 2013)
    50.09 Pierce (JGP Tallinn Cup 2013)
    - JR in U.S.
    49.25 Wang (JGP Baltic Cup 2013)
    49.15 Siraj (World Junior Championships 2013)
    48.65 Lam (JGP Courchevel 2012)
    48.57 Zhang (GP Rostelecom Cup 2012)
    47.44 Flatt (GP Skate America 2012)
    47.16 Zawadzki (GP Rostelecom Cup 2013)
    46.71 Baga (JGP Lake Placid 2012)

    Senior Ladies at 2014 Nationals without a current international score:
    Franchesca Chiera and Joelle Forte

    Reference thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/sho...ES-highs)-for-the-current-and-previous-season
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2013
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  13. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    Michelle belonged to the 6.0 era. Very few were doing strange spin positions in those days. There was no reason for her to spend time on that. Her jumps were not in the Irina/Midori/Tonya class, but they were not tiny like Tara's either. She used correct technique and her jump consistency was her biggest strength under the 6.0 system.

    Michelle was much more consistent, and she had a natural talent which you could see even when she was just 12 or 13 years old. Ashley has worked hard and I commend her for that. She has come a long way but she does not hold a candle to Michelle's ability to deliver under pressure. Also her basic skating skills are nowhere near Michelle's. I admire her persistence and I hope she will do well at the nationals and in Sochi.

    I would also add (although this would fall under the artistic category) that Michelle's musical interpretation was among the very best. Ashley does well interpreting certain kinds of music, but she is not lyrical like Michelle.
     
  14. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    I would also add that Michelle's landings both edge and posture (straight up and down) were some of the finest ever. I never even knew how well landings could be done until I saw Michelle's landings at '98 Nationals. This isn't often mentioned about Michelle's skating and it should be.
     
  15. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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  16. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I can't help but be a bit frustrated at how things turn out for promising skaters like Edmunds. They spend like a year waiting in line for assignments. Had she gotten an assignment or two last year, she could very well have been in a stronger position for Sochi.
    The practice of treating jgp as senior Bs among US ladies is really keeping young promising jrs from competing for experience at a less pressure situation. If Edmunds does place at nationals, she will jump from jgps to Olympics, too big a jump, IMHO.
     
  17. Blondie12

    Blondie12 New Member

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    Yes she will be at a significant disadvantage as she will be the only lady who did not have a chance to get rep points or refine her senior programs on the Grand Prix (besides Yuna but Yuna at least has senior experience and was at senior events this year; Yuna also has rep). I doubt USFS will send someone starting out with such a disadvantage. USFS should do what russia does and get our ladies out on Grand Prix as soon as they are age eligible,
     
  18. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    It pains me to hear Polina Edmunds in the same sentence as Sochi. She is Junior through and through, and at this point has no merits at the Senior level apart from triple jumps and triple-triples, which are gangly and not attractive like some of those from her senior counterparts. She is perhaps the most gangly skater in US ladies skating, Junior and Senior.

    Give the girl some time, sheesh. She could hopefully be quite good in 2-3 years minimum, but right now she belongs on the JGP.
     
  19. Blondie12

    Blondie12 New Member

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    I agree, I don't know why so many people seem so behind Polina for Sochi. USFS would be doing something it has never done before for the Olympics. I don't think they would be so irresponsible so as to have a junior make their intl debut on the senior level at the Olympics. We cannot compare her junior scores- made in shorter times under different pressure situations and different competitions- with the ladies now on the Senior Circuit. Many times - sadly maybe even most times - ladies who do well on the Junior Circuit often do not do well on the Senior Circuit.
     
  20. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Gangly, but overall still much more pleasant to watch than Hicks. I am hoping her jumps don't go down the drain the way Meissner's did. She doesn't have the best technique and quality to her jumps and they always look URed and lack flow on landing, and I almost feel like she is a minor growth spurt away from losing it all. I keep wondering how she was able to get away with it for the whole season. Perhaps callers at the junior level were less strict.

    But since she didn't even get to skate in a GP or senior Bs the way Hicks did, I agree she is most probably not in USFS' list for Sochi at all. I can see her making 4CCs if she has a great Nationals but I think the primary plan is to have her and Karen Chen go to Jr Worlds.

    A likely scenario is this:

    Olympics / Worlds: Wagner, Gold, Nagasu or Gao or Cesario

    4CCs: 2 of Nagasu, Gao or Cesario, Hicks

    Jr Worlds: Edmunds, Chen, Wang or Miller?
     
  21. hoptoad

    hoptoad Well-Known Member

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    Wow, sounds like some people are worried that Edmunds might earn an Olympic spot. :lol:

    There are at least 10 ladies I'd be proud to have represent us at the Olympics. All the ones Marco mentioned for sure, including Wang or Miller, who iirc don't have senior experience either. It's unlikely that even our number one lady (Go, Ashley!) will medal, so letting them all skate it out at Nationals is the best policy.

    Send the best three at the end of the night, and I'll be exceedingly happy for whoever they are. :kickass:

    I'm just hoping they all skate like they want it and it's not a nerve-ridden splatfest!
     
  22. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Not sure if you are talking about me, but at least for me I am not worried.

    Besides Wagner and Gold, Nagasu, Gao, Cesario and Hicks have all skated strongly at least once this season. Nagasu and Gao in particular have had experience at ISU Championships, Nagasu also medalled at a GP and is probably the most well known of all 4 skaters. Cesario has been the most consistent so far this season and Hicks has actually won events this season. As much as I dislike Hicks' skating, I have to regard these 4 as the frontrunners for the 3rd spot.

    And obviously the one who didn't make Sochi will make 4CCs. So unless one of these 4 bombed pretty badly at Nationals (and it's possible), Edmunds can sneak in for a 4CCs spot if she skates well enough. To get an Olympic spot however, she will have to have all 4 tanking and then skate rather solidly herself, which isn't that likely.

    It seems fair on one level to have the skaters with the best results on the night make the team, but I also think consistency across the season should be taken into consideration, so that you don't get people peaking only at Nationals and then tanking everything else afterwards (the break-throughs of Mroz, Dornbush, Miner at Nationals come to mind).
     
  23. hoptoad

    hoptoad Well-Known Member

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    Nope, not talking about you--I agree with almost everything you said.

    I like the *idea* of consistency playing a role in team selection, but I also like that skaters get to compete head-to-head at Nationals with the same judges at the same point in the season.

    I also think in general that you have to give the break-out skaters a chance. I don't think Mroz and Dornbush and Miner all tanked at their first worlds, and I did think they deserved their assignments, even if none of them did as well as they hoped over the next few years.

    Really, I just hope that how they skate on the night is rewarded.
     
  24. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I didnt say I am for Edmunds for Sochi, merely that USFS is slow to get jr skaters their jgp assignments so skaters end up taking more time toget ready for big assignments or going from nobody to being a big star like Gracie.

     
  25. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I could see Polina sneaking into the top 5 at nationals this year with two good performances but I'm very doubtful she or any of the other junior level skaters will be awarded that 3rd spot unless there are a number of epic implosions this year. Mirai, Samantha, Agnes, Christina and Courtney are shortlisted for that 3rd spot...I'd truly be shocked if the spot went to someone other than one of these ladies.
     
  26. Flying Camel

    Flying Camel Member

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    I think there are too many girl ahead of Polina to score a top 5 finish. Maybe top 10.

    She is going to junior worlds. She competed very well with the Russian juniors. Like someone said earlier that was the plan. It should be Polina and Karen. Maybe add the new skater Chasandra Chiera. She posted some good score. Also Chiera is in desperate need of ISU points. Otherwise we may not see her on the senior Grand Prix until she is 25.
     
  27. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Chiera cant go to jr worlds because she doesnt have a qualifying score. Knowing USFS my guess is she would end up doing jgp next season no matter what happens in Boston
     
  28. Flying Camel

    Flying Camel Member

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    Oh darn, I did not know that. Like I said 25 by the time she gets to senior GP. USFSA needs to make some changes. We seem to do everything backwards.
     
  29. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    I'm sure Franchesca Chiera would be thrilled to be on the JGP next fall. :)

    Amber Glenn scored really well in her JGP debut this fall; she would be a worthy competitor at Junior Worlds if she can win the Junior ladies title convincingly. (Yes, it will also depend on how the Senior ladies perform/score at Nationals.)
     
  30. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Even if Polina places between number 4-6 at Nationals, she's going to Junior Worlds, NOT to 4CCs.
     
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