U.S. Ladies [#8] All the Pretty Warhorses

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kwanatic, Aug 2, 2013.

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  1. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Gold in Skate Canada has Kim so already has no chance at any better than 2nd (Kim is just too consistent to ever lose to anyone not named Asada or Kostner at this point, in any competition), and then about 5 other girls who could easily beat her, about 2 arguably favored to. A nightmare assignment. Her other one isnt much easier IIRC.

    Maybe the USFSA support is still behind Wagner after all. They gave her the weak Skate America field 2 years in a row (especialy considering Mao isnt an early season skater) rather than Gold.
     
  2. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Well...Wagner is still the US champion, no? Makes perfect sense to me.

    And besides, I don't buy the theory that USFS is deliberately cutting out an "easy" path for Wagner to the GPF. It just happens that Wagner's biggest US competitors already have two other events. So, the pool to choose from isn't that significant anyway.
     
  3. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Wagner got SA two years in a row because she's been US CHAMPION for the past two years. As the SA host, USFS also gets to pick her competition. If Gold had beaten Wagner at Nationals 2013, she'd have Wagner's spot.

    Gold's assignments are the result of other host picks. Are the other hosts trying to lessen Gold's chances at making the GPF? Could be. Gold is a target now that she's a top 6 Worlds competitor.

    Gold has to show up prepared and unintimidated by her competition, and if she does she will do fine.
     
  4. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    SA tends to go to national champs but if national champ isnt the highest finisher at worlds he or she doesnt go(eg Abbott)

    This is just from the trend as I recall though
     
  5. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

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    Last time it happened for ladies was SA 2009 when Flatt was picked instead of Czisny.
    That was the infamous SA where Flatt beat Kim in the LP.
    Come to think of it, the ladies competition for SA has been really weak for a few years now. The last time where there was a really strong line-up was in 2008 with Kim, Ando, Nakano, Flatt, and Nagasu.
     
  6. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Active Member

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    Could someone post a link to the grand prix assignments of Wagner and Gold. I wanted to see who they face this year coming up.
     
  7. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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  8. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Active Member

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    Thanks you so much. You are very kind.

    Well it looks like:

    Skate America (Wagner): Wagner, Asada, Radionova
    Skate Canada (Gold): Kim, Suzuki, Osmond, Gold, Korpi, Leonova, Lipnitskayia, Gao
    NHK (Gold): Asada, Suzuki, Gold, Li, Leonova, Nagasu, Radionova
    Trophee Bompard (Wagner): Kim, Wagner, Sotnikova, Pogorilaya, Korpi, Gao


    Gold has the tougher of the two, but I dont agree people saying Wagner's is all easy. Skate America could be easy, but if Asada and Radionova both skate well and Wagner doesnt she could be 3rd and already in trouble for making final. Then France event is not easy field at all. Kim will beat her, and Sotnikova is a real threat for her, and other dark horses who are dangerous especialy Korpi.
     
  9. b-man

    b-man Active Member

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    Tuk is also at SA. So basically, Wagner only needs to beat one of Tuk, Asada or Radionova to be on the podium. I am not a big fan of the PCS system, as Wagner will get big PCS whether she skates well, or not. Gold, on the other hand, needs to beat many skaters to make the podium, whether at SC or NHK. You have Leonova as a contender, who probably won't be after last year's dismal performance, but all the rest are contenders. Again, at TEB, Wagner only needs to beat one of Kim, Sot, or Korpi to make the podium. She probably will need two seconds, or possibly a second and a third to make the final. I don't think Pogorilaya or Gao are podium contenders
     
  10. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    I think Ashley's are easier for her to medal, still doesn't mean she will make the final. Honestly the fields are packed except for both of Wagner's assignments. Medal contenders:

    SA - Asada, Radionova, Wagner, Tuktamysheva (Dark horse- Gedevanishvili)
    SC - Osmond, Korpi, Suzuki, Kim, Lipnitskaia, Gao, Gold (Dark horse - Leonova)
    CC - Kostner, Murakami, Sotnikova, Zawadzki (Dark horse - Li)
    NHK - Asada, Suzuki, Radionova, Gold, Nagasu (Dark horse - Gedevanishvili, Leonova, Li)
    TB - Korpi, Kim, Sotnikova, Gao, Wagner
    RC - Osmond, Kostner, Murakami, Lipitskaia, Tuktamysheva, Nagasu, Zawadzki.

    I think Kim is the only given for the GPF. All the people a listed are people that have placed 1-3 recently at Worlds, Jr. Worlds, Europeans, GPF, and GP events with the expection of Li but I think will get a much bigger second mark this year. I think it is going to be a very exciting series with more skaters getting two assignments. Anyone can qualify for the final and predict at least one withdrawal from the GPF so that can always mix things up too.
     
  11. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    How is Li a dark horse and Nagasu and Zawadzki contenders?? Li showed a much higher standard of skating (and score) than either of those two have ever done, or done recently, at an international event. At this point Zawadzki and Nagasu are about as dangerous as Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya, who aren't even listed in the events you described..
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2013
  12. icellist

    icellist Member

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    On the GP last season, Mirai and Zijun had the same events. Mirai beat her handily at both
     
  13. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Active Member

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    Zijun is quickly on the rise though. Her PCS were super low, nobody level, last fall which is how Mirai beat her despite not technically stacking up even on a good day. By Worlds Li atleast gets PCS comparable to someone like Mirai would get, even if low compared to other top 10 in the World. Li skates like Worlds no way is Nagasu beating her.
     
  14. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Li hasn't medaled at any major jr event (4th Jr GP) or any senior event. It is really that simple, she has had major errors at almost all of her events (mainly short program) and then a good long. Anges and Mirai have medaled last season. The two Russians you posted are not really close to having competitive scores if you look at their actual results. The list I made was of medalist in recent years. I agree that Zawadzki is probably the weakest internationally on that list. (personal best score)
     
  15. leapfrogonice

    leapfrogonice Active Member

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    The ability to gauge whether a given skater's path will be "easy" or "difficult" can be a bit of a gamble though. Unless I'm mistaken, there is quite a bit of gamesmanship that goes into selecting athletes for 'host country' events, and then bartering that occurs, with serious consideration given to what impact a given skater might have competitively vs. a top host country contender. The only event in which there is a clear 'easy' set would seem to be in Ice Dance, where the two events that Davis/White and Virtue/Moir are NOT competing in, are the only ones in which anyone else would have a shot at a gold, and any of the otherwise 3-4-5 contenders have a legit chance to medal (Cup of China and Cup of Russia).
     
  16. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Pogorilaya has an ISU PB of 167 (at a junior event), Korobeynikova 164, and Zawadzki 166. So really, they are comparable in international scores. Don't let Zawadzki's nationals results confuse you about the numbers she usually puts up internationally, which are mid 150s to mid 160s. Last season she had scores of 166, 160, and 158 at ISU events while Pogorilaya had 142, 160, 167, and 160. If you compare the best 3 results and take into account Pogorilaya's numbers all came from junior events, they are pretty even with Pogorilaya being slightly ahead. Korobeynikova last season had not as good results but the season before scored 149, 151 (junior programs), 164. Plus Nagasu only scored 163 at CoC last year, which is a number both Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya can easily match or surpass considering they've done it in international events before.
     
  17. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    You make a lot of good points, but scores are not perfectly comparable from event to event. It will be interesting to see who comes out ahead when they all skate their best in the same competition.
     
  18. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Great.

    Anyway, can't wait for the season to start!
     
  19. leapfrogonice

    leapfrogonice Active Member

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    I wonder if anyone has seen Zijun Li yet this year. Given her age and body type last season, one would think she would be right on the verge of some sort of growth spurt?
     
  20. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Honestly this is one of the best exhibition programs I have seen since Kwan's era. I hope Mirai can tap into this in her competitive programs. Last year's exhibition was lovely too.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAJ0hMV_PsQ
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2013
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  21. BmcC102

    BmcC102 Active Member

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    This exhibition is a MUST WATCH! :)

    I loved the spins especially; so appropriate to the music and as anti-COP as you can get. ;)

    The On Golden Pond sountrack has always been special to me, as the movie was filmed on the same lake as my summer home, in which I spent each summer (and this past weekend!). Lovely music for Mirai.
     
  22. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ^^Definitely the kind of exhibition I like to see. Whoever choreographed that did a great job and Mirai skated it beautifully. I just wish she looked a little more engaged in the program. Sometimes she looked a little blank...

    But I have yet to see an exhibition that matched this Kween masterpiece.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbDkE7-o_DM
     
  23. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Can she please use this as her SP instead of her current one!?!?
     
  24. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Maybe this can be her own little "East of Eden" and she will eventually have many great variations on it.
     
  25. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    Agree 100%

    I love Mirai and this music, but she had zero expression throughout.

    This program looked pieced together to me, there elements aren't that difficult save for that spiral at the end and not choreographically complex.

    Michelle's exhibitions were complex and well-realized, even her deceivingly simplistic "East of Eden" exhibition.

    By the way, Denise Biellman skated her best pro program to "On Golden Pond" ... a masterpiece: http://youtu.be/lKYQxRteuis (and this is a technical program!)
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2013
  26. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Yep, let attack some more. Never enough of that when Mirai is concerned. You 100% agree with the last 5 words of that post I guess and not the rest. lol
     
  27. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    It's not "zero" expression. It's a serious program. Every fiber of her being is engaged - heck, the crowd spontaneously applauded her T-stop! - and the emotions she projects are entirely appropriate for the performance.
     
  28. Skittl1321

    Skittl1321 Well-Known Member

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    I agree- while her face was generally the same serious look, I wouldn't say it was a no expression program. The expression was through the rest of the body. Without a doubt she conveyed a feeling and got the audience involved.

    I think some people believe skaters are only showing expression when they are making cheesy smiles and o faces, though of course, I can't speak for the poster who said Mirai showed no expression.
     
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  29. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    How was what I wrote an attack? Am I not entitled to my opinion?

    I even wrote "I love Mirai" but looks like you missed those 3 words of that post. You're right, perhaps I should've just only quoted the "I just wished" part to really drive home my seething hate for Mirai :rolleyes:

    I personally didn't see much expression or complexity in this program, especially compare to Biellman or Lisa Nesuda who skated to this same music. That's my opinion.

    Don't patronize me. I could say something catty and true like, "I have watched and know more about skating than you ever will," but I'll refrain from that. :rolleyes:

    For the record, I *like* Mirai (heck I was even one of the few people rooting for her for the third spot in other threads), never said I *dislike* this program, and am not some krazy Kwan uber.

    Lighten up people.
     
  30. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ^^ I agree, everyone should lighten up a little. :rolleyes: No one was attacking Mirai. The consensus seems to be that the program was nice for some, excellent for others. I loved the simplicity of the choreography. That's what made it so beautiful IMO.

    Unfortunately, and it's purely my opinion, I think Mirai's "serious" face looks slightly bored/impassive when she skates. I'm not a fan of fake plastered smiles so that's not what I was looking for. I see the expression in her movement so I know it's there. The delivery is always better when a skater's entire body is integrated into the choreography; not just the steps and arm movements but using the head and face as well. In dance they call it "giving face" and Mirai needs to work on that. Those are the little things that enhance a performance and make a big difference. Mirai had moments where I could see it but for the most part, she didn't look engaged in the performance IMO. She's good at projecting upbeat/happy music but (to me) she's seems a bit detached when she skates to serious/slow music. Obviously not everyone felt that way and that's fine. That's why we call them opinions.
     
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