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U.S. Ladies [#8] All the Pretty Warhorses

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kwanatic, Aug 2, 2013.

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  1. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    I believe two of the seven jumping passes will have to either have two 2a or both a 2a and a triple.
     
  2. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    ITA. This was one of the reasons for YNK's great success leading up to Sochi, she was doing three 2A's with great GOE. I actually didn't like that it was being done, it gives the 2A too much weight relative to other skills.
    Christina until last season, was always hampered by the 2A, she was lucky if she could get ONE of them done without error in a program. Last season it became more solid, is her technique now so solid that she can try multiple 2As in the LP this year?

    I really want her to succeed, but I never thought she 'wuzrobbed' especially in relation to Gracie Gold. Gracie's jump content base value was so much higher than Christina's, and Gold is a much better spinner too. Christina will need to find some combination of jumps that will narrow the gap between her competitors. Bringing back a solid 3F-3T and quality 2A would help a great deal.
     
  3. Marco

    Marco Well-Known Member

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    Not at all. She could do this (obviously just one of the millions of possibilities):

    3flip3toe
    3lutz2toe
    3toe half loop 3sal
    3flip
    3loop
    2axel
    2axel
     
  4. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

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    You are correct. According to her LP performance at the Cranberry Open, this is her current planned jump layout:

    3T+3T
    2A
    3Lz(probably +2T)
    3F*
    3Lo*
    3S*
    3Lo* (probably +2T+2Lo)

    * Indicates jumping passes in the 2nd half of the program
     
  5. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    I agree, nothing special.

    However, she has shown some resolve lately and with her taking this year off school, clearly she's serious about the Olympics. If she can deliver, she's every bit as much of a contender as Zawadzki is
     
  6. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    What I meant was two of the passes have to include two 2a or higher level jumps.
     
  7. rosewood

    rosewood Well-Known Member

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    I've never thought Christina is like Akiko. She is rather in the similar position of Kanako(or Haruka) in the team of Japan. They are still young and coming to their own in these couple of years. Say, Akiko might be Jeremy of Japan, who has great edge works, musicality, artistry, and has already established their own personality on ice. Their federations are balancing those veterans with "it skaters" and "the post Sochi skaters".
     
  8. ohashibiles

    ohashibiles Active Member

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    One thing I dont understand is some of you say when Nagasu is really on she is the best U.S skater since Kwan, she is amazing, she is unbeatable, etc....Well what is an on Nagasu. I would assume the 2010 Olympics which was the competition of Nagasu's life was her on and skating her best. Yet even there she didnt medal, and more importantly she was beaten by 40 points by the winner. How amazing is someone who even when totally "on" is losing to some random skater by 40 points.
     
  9. Sylvia

    Sylvia Club comp. season is here!

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    Last edited: Aug 21, 2013
  10. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

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    I assume here we are talking about ladies who cannot do a 3A. With a skater with 5 triple jumps who wants to do 7 triples and two double axels, the major jumps could be a list like this:

    3Lz, 3Lz, 3F, 3Lo, 3S, 3T, 3T, 2A, 2A

    To get this down to 7 elements, she needs to turn two of these into combinations/sequences. To comply with the repeated jumps limit, the two repeated triples (in this example 3Lz and 3T) and one of the 2 axels need to be done in combination/seq. The way it works out, that means she needs either to do a 3-3 plus 2A in combination/sequence with a triple or do two different 3-3 combinations/sequences*.

    She could do this by sticking the two 3Toes on the end of the repeated Lutz and any other triple jump. Then she need only do the 2A in a combination/sequence with double jumps, like the example above or this example:
    3Lz-3T
    3Lz
    3F
    3Lo
    3S-3T
    2A-2T-2T seq
    2A

    Since few ladies can land two different 3-3 combinations, we are more likely to see a 2A +triple combination/sequence plus one 3-3 combo, with another jump turned into the third combination/sequence with doubles.

    For example, this would work
    3Lz-2T
    3Lz
    3F-3T
    3Lo
    3S
    2A-3T-2T seq
    2A

    or this
    3Lz-2T
    3Lz
    3F
    3Lo
    3T-3T
    3S-2A-2T seq
    2A

    (I'm not thinking in terms of useful jump orders here. I listed them this way to make it easier to follow the repeats.)

    Here is the relevant language from the rules:
    "A well balanced Free Skating program for Ladies must contain ...maximum of 7 jump elements (one of which must be an Axel type jump);

    "A jump combination may consist of the same or another single, double, triple or quadruple jump. There may be up to three jump combinations or jump sequences in the Free Program. One jump combination could consist of up to three (3) jumps, the other two up to two (2) jumps.

    "A Double Axel cannot be included more than two (2) times in total in a Single’s Free Program (as a Solo Jump or a part of Combination / Sequence). Of all the triple and quadruple jumps only two (2) can be repeated and these repetitions must be in either a jump-combination or in a jump sequence."


    *edited to add:

    Now that I think about it, if a skater had a really good, money in the bank 3-3 combination, is there anything that would prevent her from using it twice? For example, would this work?:
    3Lz-3T
    3Lz-3T
    3F
    3Lo
    3S
    2A-2T-2T seq
    2A
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2013
  11. ohashibiles

    ohashibiles Active Member

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    I don't like her much so to me she is. Her fan base annoys me. I also am sick about how people talk about her like some goddess. The same way people used to talk about Kwan and that nauseated me too, despite that I like Kwan more than Kim. No skater should be talked about as if they are bigger than the sport the way Kim and Kwan are both treated.

    Anyway that is going off topic. Random skater was maybe the wrong word, change it to random good skater. Still the fact is at her very best someone else is deemed 40 points better than her, so it is hard to believe even at her very best some U.S skaters in the currently super deep and strong U.S field aren't also better than her if they are also at their best (aka isn't there some U.S skater who at their best would be less than 40 points behind Yu Na Kim at hers).
     
  12. ohashibiles

    ohashibiles Active Member

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    Agnes had her opportunity the last couple years and blew it. I don't know if she has the same chances now. What set her apart before was her huge jump potential, but Gold is like a better version of Agnes. I think if Gold and Agnes both skated clean even U.S National judges would put Gold ahead. Could Agnes get a 135 LP at U.S Nationals if she was clean? Since that is what it would take to beat Gold skating from the 2nd last flight last year. It might be even more than that this year.

    I am not even sure if Wagner can beat Gold at Nationals this year if both are clean. Gold has much higher base value, would probably get a more in GOE too, and Wagner's PCS edge would not be enough to overcome.
     
  13. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    You don't have to like her OR her fans, but any skater who is an Olympic and (multiple) World champion is no "random skater."
     
  14. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Agnes is too much of a headcase to land on the top of the podium. Until she reigns in her demons, she won't. I believe she started working with a sports psychologist last season and there was some improvement made at Nationals, but she'll need to improve further in terms of consistency.
     
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think had Agnes skated cleanly she would have won the last 2 Nationals. Her convincing short program win in 2012 showed the judges were more than ready to give her that one. Wagner at that point was not the frontrunner, and Czisny came in as the betting and judges favorite but make major errors in both programs, but she couldnt put it together in the FS. 2013 she fell in the short program and still was placed 2nd over a clean Nagasu. With Wagner blowing the long program and Gold way behind after blowing the short program, a clean free skate would have won it for her for sure but she didnt even come close to pulling it off.

    People say she was held up at the last 2 Nationals. Well this past year she definitely was. She shouldnt have beaten either Gao or Hicks, and maybe not even Nagasu. However in 2012 while one could make a case for her finishing lower than 3rd, one could also make a strong case she could have easily been placed 2nd and sent to Worlds. Czisny did not really skate any better than she did in the LP, and was already behind after the SP. For the future of U.S skating it probably would have also been a much smarter move to send Zawadzki to those Worlds instead of Czisny, and it is unfortunate that didnt happen. It would have really boosted Agnes's confidence perhaps to go to a Worlds. There have been reports for years she struggles with motivation and confidence, and that she still hasnt qualified for a Worlds and barely had any international success probably weighs on her, and I am not sure how much enthusiasm or drive she has left. Having 3 spots for the Olympics will hopefully give her something more to push herself this season though.
     
  16. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ITA. Her scores in the SP are all the evidence we need to prove that if she'd delivered in the FS, she'd have won and I'd have been okay with that. I still think if Agnes went to nationals this year and hit all of her jumps she could beat out Gracie and Ashley. If she suddenly starts delivering this season I think she could be a front-runner not only for a spot on the team but as the national champion. She has what Ashley lacks (ability to execute tougher combos) and she has what Gracie lacks (polish, musicality, maturity, etc.). If she knocked both programs out of the park I could see her beating both of them. She has the potential; however, potential won't get you anywhere if you can't deliver.
     
  17. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

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    ITA. As ol' Dick Button said, "there's no greater burden than having potential" :saint:
     
  18. Sylvia

    Sylvia Club comp. season is here!

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    Re-posting from the Champs Camp news thread in GSD:

    Group photo tweeted by Mirai Nagasu: Champs camp roommate love! #destinationsochi @christina_gao @agneszawadzki http://instagram.com/p/dTmIdwi5TU/
     
  19. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Although it COULD happen, that would seriously be a major upset...

    I think one or both of the others would have to screw up as well. One thing thing working in her favor (and Gao, Nagasu and Hicks): lower expectations and less pressure.
     
  20. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    I love Agnes's skating, apart from her team picking music that doesn't show her off well, but she seems to lack the champion mentality. Whereas Gracie is like a racehorse raring to go. It makes her a lot more exciting to watch. I love the smoothness of Agnes's skating but it can be a little dull without some WOW moments. It would be great if this were her breakout season.

    But my heart belongs to Mirai so I am hoping even more for her.
     
  21. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Ideally I would like a team of Gao, Nagasu, and Zawadzki. I think if they were clean and on they would be best bunch to watch from a viewers perspective. Ashley is just too over the top and Gracie has zzzz factor except for her jumps and fast spins. And yes, I know that this has little chance of happening... lol
     
  22. rickmercer

    rickmercer Active Member

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    I would like to see Wagner make the Olympics only since she just missed last time and being the best U.S skater of the quad she deserves it. I would be totally happy with Gold missing it though although the judges will never let that happen unless she skates most of the program on her dress.
     
  23. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    Unconventional. I would switch Gold for Gao, though. Christina is the duller one for me.
     
  24. Marco

    Marco Well-Known Member

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    New article on Cesario. http://www.ifsmagazine.com/articles/32658-samantha-cesario-up-for-the-challenge

    Glad to learn that her Carmen free program is going to be different to her short program in the past 3 seasons.

    Good luck with the 3loop3loop! (Somehow I guess the almost inevitable UR call is calculated in that a 3loop3loop< is still going to be worth more than a 3loop2toe and sounds much more exciting. I believe Sotnotova is making a similar call on her 3lutz3loop.)
     
  25. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Well-Known Member

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    You are talking about what if Agnes had skated better but you forget that Ashley could have done a much better long and Gold a much better short at the 2013 Nationals. It is not like Agnes Zawadski is the only one who could have skated better than she did. Same in 2013, she could have skated alot better, but so could Czisny and to a lesser degree Ashley. Yeah if Agnes Zawadski had skated well in free skate she would be National U.S Champion of 2012 and 2013, but what if Wagner, Czisny, and Gold had also skated their best those years. Would she still have been. Perhaps not anymore.

    Anyway things are not like 2012 or even 2013. In 2012 there was no clear #1 moving forward. Czisny was the #1 for then but she was getting old already. In 2013 Ashley was the clear #1 but Gold was not firmly established up with her. Things political and reputation sense were more open. Now Wagner and Gold are firmly entrenched politics wise above the others, even if their skating isnt so superior perhaps to some others at their best. After getting 3 spots back for the U.S women and both showing possible to be medal contenders they are the Golden Girls for USFSA. I dont think the USFSA will let others come over them no matter how good they do unless those two underperform. I hope I am wrong but that is how I would guess things are for this season atleast.
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I agree, I can see other girls beating one and/or both of Gracie or Ashley at Nationals, but I don't see either of those two getting left off the team. For example, if Agnes or Christina were to have the SOHLs at Nationals and Gracie had a bad day, I could see Agnes or Christina placing 1st or 2nd and Gracie getting relegated to 3rd place, but that's lowest either Gracie or Ashley will place at Nationals, or if one were really to bomb, I think they might get named to the team anyway.
     
  27. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    It depends. If one of Gold or Wagner dissapoints on the grand prix and then has a bad Nationals too and all of Nagasu, Zawadzki, Gao, and maybe Czisny and Hicks have great competitions one of them might end up not being held up and placed outside the top 3 at Nationals, then left off the team. Wagner has easy grand prix assignments so she has no excuse to not make the Grand Prix final comfortably and I am pretty sure will, which will guarantee her spot probably even if she bombs Nationals. Gold has tougher assignments though and must really skate well to ensure her spot in the final, and keep her virtually ensured spot on the team and held up at all costs privileges going into Nationals.
     
  28. icellist

    icellist Active Member

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    Curious to as the public's consensus.

    Which US lady has the easiest GP assignments and who has the hardest GP assignments?
    Rank 'em if you want
     
  29. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Wagner lucked out and got an easy ride to the GPF.
     
  30. b-man

    b-man Active Member

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    It's not all luck. Wagner had SA in 2012 and this year which were among the weakest fields. Last year the pick from the top 3 at SA was not Kostner or Suzuki, but Leonova, which not only gave Wagner an easy path to the GPF, but Gao was able to piggyback on the weak field at SA as well and earn a silver which gave her, as an alternate, an entry to the GPF. Wagner this year also has the weaker TEB. Gold and Nagasu both have two GP's with very deep, talented fields.
     
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