U.S. Ladies [#8] All the Pretty Warhorses

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by kwanatic, Aug 2, 2013.

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  1. oleada

    oleada Well-Known Member

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    Olympic, I know exactly what you mean with Mirai's landings, because I (not a judge) notice it. I noticed it yesterday on the 3Lo, and the 3T was also UR. But I didn't see it on the 3F :(
  2. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Re: benefit of doubt to the other skaters.
    I can't speak for every skater, but with Lipnitskaya she buried her flip in the corner; from the camera angle it's impossible to know whether she ured or not. Very smart.
  3. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^Well, Finlandia concluded. I watched the final flight live.

    Mirai hit a nice early season LP: Caught that the 2x-3t was <, she 2-footed a 3f, and got the perfunctory edge call on the 3z but looked like she nailed everything else (didn't notice any weird blade wobbles or anything else that would give away a UR). So, 110 pts.? WTF. Really want to see the protocols. How are Lipnitskaya's eked-out jumps and juniorish choreography worth 15 points more?

    ETA - despite it all, I think Mirai has a shot at the US team; Gracie, Christina and Agnes aren't exactly hitting it out of the park right now.
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2013
  4. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Finlandia Ladies FS protocols: http://www.figureskatingresults.fi/results/1314/FT2013/FT2013_Ladies_FS_Scores.pdf

    ETA:
    Senior B total scores so far this season:
    171.88 Courtney Hicks USA (SLC 1st)
    164.68 Gracie Gold USA (SLC 2nd)
    164.51 Mirai Nagasu USA (Finlandia 4th)
    162.39 Ashley Cain USA (Nebelhorn 3rd) - counts as ISU SB
    157.29 Samantha Cesario (SLC 3rd)
    152.28 Vanessa Lam (Finlandia 5th)
    152.84 Christina Gao (Nepela 3rd)
    151.27 Agnes Zawadzki (SLC 4th)

    Zawadzki is featured in the latest "Inside Edge" blog: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/2013/10/04/62472362/the-inside-edge-zawadzki-faces-media-trains-hard

    ISU Season Bests Total Scores to date:
    4 179.08 Karen CHEN USA ISU JGP Kosice 2013 14.09.2013 (JR in U.S.)
    5 171.21 Polina EDMUNDS USA ISU JGP Mexico Cup 2013 07.09.2013
    8 164.18 Amber GLENN USA ISU JGP Czech Skate 2013 05.10.2013 (JR in U.S.)
    10 162.39 Ashley CAIN USA Nebelhorn Trophy 2013 27.09.2013
    13 155.87 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Czech Skate 2013 05.10.2013
    15 153.17 Mariah BELL USA ISU JGP Mexico Cup 2013 07.09.2013
    18 148.19 Barbie LONG USA ISU JGP Kosice 2013 14.09.2013
    29 142.32 Yasmin SIRAJ USA ISU JGP Riga Cup 2013 30.08.2013
    (Hannah Miller and Tyler Pierce are scheduled for JGP Estonia next week.)

    FS scores of 100+ this season:
    119.77 Ashley Wagner (Japan Open, 3rd)
    117.08 Courtney Hicks (SLC)
    114.62 Karen Chen (JGP SVK)
    113.43 Polina Edmunds (JGP MEX)
    110.50 Mirai Nagasu (Finlandia)
    109.38 Samantha Cesario (SLC)
    107.34 Amber Glenn (JGP CZE)
    106.19 Gracie Gold (SLC)
    104.52 Ashley Cain (Nebelhorn)
    103.26 Mariah Bell (JGP MEX)
    100.70 Christina Gao (Nepela)
    100.63 Barbie Long (JGP SVK)
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2013
  5. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, interestingly, no edge call for Mirai on the 3z, but she got dinged with UR's on half her jumps. Downgrade on the flip? Wow
  6. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Well here's the LP link of Mirai at Finlandia... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SO-aZ0MMc8E

    Her triple toe and second triple flip loop << so I think it's right. But overall, it appears that she and her team are working very hard to bring up her to the level she was once at. Her jumps look bigger than they did in the past and that first flip in the beginning had no underrotation whatsoever. Unfortunately, her facial expressions (or lack thereof) are almost non-existent in the program. She brought in so much more character and life after the second triple loop and I wish she would bring that into the entire performance.
  7. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    Of all the US ladies we've seen who are in contention for the 3rd spot (presuming Ashley and Gracie take spots 1 & 2), Mirai has the best programs BY FAR. She's clearly putting in loads of work. If the USFSA knew what was good for it, they would start supporting her. Something must be going on behind the scenes for her jumps to get so much more scrutiny than everyone else's. I'm not saying she should get credit for jumps that aren't rotated, it's that no one's jumps would fare well under this kind of scrutiny. If everyone's jumps were reviewed as frequently as hers, with the expectation that they will be <, we'd see a lot more <. Her 3z in the Finlandia LP is a perfect example.
  8. icellist

    icellist New Member

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    I love the work her team has put rearranging her elements after her step sequence. Her lutz edge looked good to me. The only notable underrotations to me were the 3T and second 3F. The 3Lz and 2T I would've given the benefit of the doubt. She is just under a lot of scrutiny now... I felt like Mirai gave a lot of emotion/expression in her step sequence and after her solo 3L. Her programs are the most polished of the senior ladies. I would pick Mirai over Agnes and Christina right now, perhaps Gracie depending on how much Frank can salvage out of that horrendous program.

    ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHZLzcy74w8&feature=player_detailpage#t=262
    Love that she's looking at the camera during the Besti squat
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2013
  9. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I think we are going to see some upsets in the Ladies event at Nationals. Could be one of the younger kids has the skate of her life and makes the Olympic team.
  10. Flying Camel

    Flying Camel Member

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    And they won't even have to skate that great. Most of the senior ladies are too scared to jump.
  11. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Not impossible, not gonna rule that out...but at the same time, I don't think the pool of contenders is as large as a lot of fans seem to think.
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2013
  12. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    The pool of Sochi contenders are definitely not as large as many think imo. There's really 5 girls vying for the 3 spots, and no matter what Ashley is a lock based on everything she's put out the past 2 seasons and thus far. Gracie could be a lock too depending what she puts out this season. Apart from that we have Mirai, Christina, Agnes who have real shots at the spots. It's definitely going to be the well known women who skate like Senior ladies that make it to Sochi.

    If someone like Hicks, Cesario, or Cain (the next best chances) step up to the podium at Nationals, I would not be surprised if USFSA didn't send them and promoted one of the 5 above who had a sub-par skate.

    And forget about all the Junior girls (e.g. Polina, Karen), their JGP scores are irrelevant and none will be buying a ticket to Sochi. It is a LADIES event, and they don't look (skate) the part.

    That's the way I see it in my honest opinion. Feel free to agree, or strongly disagree ;)
  13. Skittl1321

    Skittl1321 Well-Known Member

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    See, I think there are probably 5-6 vying for the final spot. I think the first two are decided.
  14. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Cain in no way has a better chance than Edmunds or Czisny. IMO there are 5 groups:

    1.) Locks/Near Locks

    Wagner
    Gold

    2.) Main contenders for the 3rd Spot

    Zawadzki
    Gao
    Hicks

    3.) Secondary contenders for the 3rd spot

    Nagasu
    Cesario


    4.) Dark Horses for the 3rd spot

    Czisny
    Edmunds

    5.) Highly unlikely to make the Olympic team but could be given consideration if the stars align perfectly at Nationals

    Wang
    Miller
    Zhang
    Lam
    Flatt
    Cain
  15. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

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    How do you know how much scrutiny Mirai is under compared to other skaters? Mirai has had under rotation issues her entire career, so off course her jumps are going to be reviewed. It is no different from anyone else who consistently under rotates. Furthermore, the tech can only replay jumps from the camera on the judges stand. They cannot look at any other views. Often what we see are views from other cameras so it it difficult to know what the techs are seeing.
  16. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ Well given the fact that her jumps have been the best they've pretty much ever been, I can agree with Coco. Mirai has had numerous other performances with triples that were way more questionable that the ones she did at Finlandia and they were NOT given a <.
  17. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    See, here's my list:

    Wagner
    Gold
    (your top 2 contenders)


    Zawadzki
    Gao
    (your 2 secondary contenders)


    Hicks
    Nagasu*
    (the 2 that could surprise)


    THAT'S IT. Everyone else - either past peak or not ready (not at top contender level).

    *Even Nagasu is sort of straddling that "MIGHT be/MIGHT not be" line depending on whether she can ditch those URs or not...if she can't, she doesn't have any more of a prayer than the rest.
  18. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, all I have to go on is how long it takes scores to come up. I just think she is subject to more scrutiny than others to the point that it's getting unfair. Lots of skaters are getting the benefit of the doubt, while she is being examined under a magnifying glass. If everyone was examined to the degree she's being looked at, we'd see a lot more URs.
  19. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I think a stronger jumper who is under less pressure (e.g. Edmunds) can come in and spoil the party. What would USFS do then, I wonder?

    Just to add: Wang seems to have a pretty good short going. Girl with good short, so-so long has been known to place well at US nationals.

    Cesario is in trouble though. That 3 loop/3 loop is a huge risk and without that she won't get to top 6 in the short
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2013
  20. Skittl1321

    Skittl1321 Well-Known Member

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    If Alissa shows up healthy and skates well, I think she has a shot. Because I think the US judges will reward her for all her years, and for not having gone before.
  21. LilJen

    LilJen Well-Known Member

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    I don't see the << on Mirai's second flip. Yes, she landed it two-footed and it was kind of UR, but a -3 from one judge and -2 from the rest? Seems pretty harsh to me.
  22. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ Two footed jumps (especially when very apparent) are an automatic -2 for GOE.
  23. LilJen

    LilJen Well-Known Member

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    Ohhhh, okay!!! Thanks for the clarification. Hoping she can get the jumps cleaned up. . . but, um, we've all been saying that for a few years now :(
  24. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    I'm not even sure we could say at this point that Agnes or Christina are really the secondary contenders based on what we've seen so far this early in the season. Christina is coming off of an injury and doesn't look that great, while Agnes is still a mess as she always was (I still don't understand why she's been 3rd place at Nationals for the last, what, three seasons?)
  25. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you on this. I don't think Zawadzki and Gao are any more likely than Hicks and Nagasu. (I DO think it will be one of those four.)
  26. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    I think besides the favorites (Wagner, Gold), and main contenders (Zawadski, Hicks, Gao) , the two that could surprise are

    Edmunds
    Wang

    Edmunds can challenge if she continues to make a strong case as she has so far this season, she and Hicks are 'building the campaign' , as Paul Wylie would say. Wang has got to be one the highest quality skaters all around, fabulous skating skills, difficult and quality jumps, and superb mature presentation, but she's a headcase.

    Not sure where Nagasu fits in here. I love her skating, but she hasn't scored well in a while, so much depends on who is doing the calling.
  27. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    sad Caroline Zhang hasn't been mentioned and has gone with the wind
  28. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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    I actually think it's too early to call Wang a headcase. I think she was off the ice (rumor is she was injured) and is under-trained (hence her re-assignment from an early JGP) and isn't ready to compete yet. I think (hope?) when she's had a chance to adequately train it, the errors in her long program will start to clear up.
  29. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    No one but Ashley seems like a good bet to make the Olympic team at this time. All the others are inconsistent or headcases.
    AxelAnnie and (deleted member) like this.
  30. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

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    Sad, but true I fear.
  31. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think once Gracie gets settled w/ FC, things will fall into place as far as her skating is concerned. The GP series will be telling.
  32. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with all that. Although the way things are going now i wouldnt be surprised if Gold drops into the main contenders for the 2nd and 3rd spot group, and Gao drops to the secondary contenders for the 2nd and 3rd spot group.

    I really think if the Olympic team was picked tommorow Hicks would be on it.
  33. rosewood

    rosewood Well-Known Member

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    I'm with you, while I hope Gao shows good performances at Nats, thinking of her mom. I also hope Mirai makes a Olympic team, thinking of her mom. Oh my...US needs four spots.
  34. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Well she hasn't skated well the last season and no one really knows how she's training, so at this point, she isn't really contending although things could change. Does anyone know how Caroline is doing?
  35. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Mirai improved a tremendous amount between Glacier Falls and Finlandia (where she got hosed on some her jumps, IMO). If she keeps on this same path, and keeps her head together, she can be proud of herself no matter if she makes it to Sochi or not. Side note: her choreographic sequence is amazing. :swoon:

    I think the only real "lock" for Sochi right now is Ashley. Gracie is the next closest thing, but who knows what's going on in her head. I wouldn't be surprised to see Courtney place top 2 at Nationals, actually. :shuffle:

    Still three months until Nationals, but I think the top five are Wagner/Gold/Hicks/Nagasu/Gao (5th again!). With Cain and/or Cesario possibly nabbing 5th, too.
  36. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I love Cain, but the rotation on her harder triples is a question mark. :(
    I still think Wang has a shot at top 5 because great short programs tend to keep skaters there.

    ETA: Cesario's short program may keep her down. She won't have enough difficulty to place high without 3r/3r but judges seldom ratify 3r/3r. She may have better luck getting level 4 everything

    ETA: Edmunds may surprise
    Last edited: Oct 8, 2013
  37. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    Copied & pasted my reply from over in the K&C as regards Mira and her Finlandia FSi: :)


    Even with the one obviously UR jump (don't know if there were more? but only looked like 1 to me) I would have placed Mirai Nagasu first. Just because she had the most well-rounded choreographed program with no obvious mistakes. She truly has it all, though I've noticed her natural spark that she had when she was younger is gone, with only a glimpse of it at the end. :( And her triple jumps look bigger imho. Love her costume, choreography, jumps, spins, steps, et al, she just needs to really sell it and feel the music! :)
  38. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^Would love to see a team of Ashley, Gracie and Mirai.

    Chipso, agree that Mirai was hosed at Finlandia. I don't know what the judges were looking at on her 1st 3flip in the SP. But, for all of Mirai's flaws, she's doing better right now than Zawadzki and Gao. Hicks may be too 'green' for the team in the eyes of the judges at Nationals. We'll see ...
  39. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Cain is definitely NOT in hunt for a top 5 finish at Nationals. She has some nice qualities to her skating (her SS are amazing), but her lutz and flip technique is really awful and without much rep power, she won't be anywhere near the top 5. Top 10 would be much for reasonable for her (if that even).
  40. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    If she skates two clean programs, it's definitely possible. Her scores at Nebelhorn were quite good for flawed programs early in the season.

    jlai, I think Edmunds could surprise as well, but it's hard to know how she'll handle the pressure of her first senior Nationals also being the Olympic trials. That, and the U.S. judges don't show her much love (her junior FS last season being a prime example. :().
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