U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vagabond, Feb 10, 2013.

  1. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Any reports on Courtney Hicks planned jumps/combinations, etc. for Jr. World's? and thoughts on her chances of making the podium? I feel she is a very strong contender. Sorry if this is being discussed elsewhere.
  2. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ITA re: Adelina's scores.
    I'm not too much a fan of her FS but her SP is very strong and when she hits her jumps she deserves a high 60s score. She performs that program very well with lots of energy and fire and the rest of her skating from a presentation standpoint is top 5 material: great speed and coverage, nice deep edges, gorgeous lines, difficult spins and steps, plus the program (as well as her skating) leaves a really nice impression on the ice...she could definitely match Ashley if not beat her in the SP.
  3. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I'm guessing she'll stick with the same layout she's had all season.

    I think her chances are pretty decent of making the podium but I don't see anyone beating Elena Radionova right now. That kid has been on fire all season long and she's the fav to win. The judges like Courtney so if she can put down two solid performances she should have a good shot at 2nd or 3rd but she does have others to contend with like Anna Pogorilaya and Hannah Miller. She missed the JGPF so she's at a slight disadvantage (the other 3 all medaled) but like I said, two strong programs should put her back in the mix.
  4. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    The 3 U.S. ladies going to Junior Worlds are Hicks, Samantha Cesario, and Yasmin Siraj.

    Hicks was only doing 3Lo+2T combo in her SP on the JGP this past fall, so she will likely upgrade to at least 3Lz+2T and 3F (flip is required) in the SP.

    Cesario will likely stick with her 3Lo+2T in the SP and I'm guessing Siraj will go with 3Lz+2T or 3T+3T - whichever is more consistent for her.

    ETA: Elena Radionova, Julia Lipnitskaia, Anna Pogorilaya, Satoko Miyahara, Rika Hongo, Gabrielle Daleman and Alaine Chartrand look to be the main contenders from the other countries, plus Hae-Jin Kim, if she's healthy.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  5. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Oh yeah...I forgot Hannah didn't get the spot. :(

    Well in that case Courtney's chances are higher but she'd have to be clean to beat Anna (assuming she made mistakes) and I don't see her beating Elena. Both girls have more difficult jumps though Courtney does skate bigger. I don't think junior worlds will be as competitive as it's been in the last two years. For once, senior worlds is looking like the more interesting competition.
  6. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    What I'm really getting at here is let's not take it for granted that she will easily make up ground in the FS if she lacks a competitive SP.

    It probably won't be an easy decision for Team Wagner whether to go for the 3-3 or not, since a bad miss could possibly be worse than doing a clean 3-2. Yet a 3-2 likely won't be enough if all the others hit.

    As long as she gets into that final FS group she has a shot - IF she can hit.

    I'm more worried about Gold in the SP though than I am about Wagner.
  7. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Her track record this season though, even including those falls, is still better than someone like Gracie or Agnes, however, and those two don't have injuries or illness (at least not that they mentioned publicly) that likely attributed to weakened stamina/consistency like Ashley did at GPF and Nats.

    Ashley in the SP is really the least of my worries right now. Even Gracie in the SP I'm not that worried about because I think she is still likely to wind up in the penultimate warmup for the FS with mistakes in the SP so long as she doesn't completely tank, and even clean making the final flight after the SP might be tough for her. If you're going to say Ashley's track record in the FS isn't so good....what do you have to say about Gracie? :shuffle: Ashley's had a few falls but Gracie has had a number of falls, pops, stumbles, and turnouts across her competitive FS performances this season. It's encouraging she manages to score decently with all those mistakes but still, with the depth of this field, it's a concern, especially because she's so capable of brilliantly executing ALL the jumps in her FS as we saw at US Nats.
  8. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

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    Very refreshing yet strange to see to Canadian women listed in this paragraph. We've come a long way baby!
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  9. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Yes. And as your neighbor to the South, I'm also jealous of your success in pairs and men's singles right now.

    ----------------------------------

    I think a big concern for most US skating fans is that we don't for sure know what exactly happened to Ashley at the GPF and Nationals, and we can't make any presumptions or rational predictions on what she'll do at Worlds. This probably is further fraying the nerves of US skating fans, already frayed by years of frustration of waiting for a medal or even 3 spots. Nor can we predict what will happen in regards to Gracie. We won't know anything until they step on the ice in London, Ontario.

    :drama:
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  10. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    If Gracie makes mistakes in the SP, she could very well end up between 13 & 16th place. It would all depend on how others due. As excited as USFSA is about her, she's learning to compete at this level and manage her nerves. If they haven't put all their political might behind Ashley, they are FOOLS.
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  11. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I was simply stating facts. Not really trying to suggest anything about her "track record".

    As for Gold I think I've said many times already - flip a (weighted) coin, heads, she'll do OK, tails, she'll completely tank (ala Czisny...not very reassuring now, is it?)
  12. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    What about So Youn Park? She's done well this year, but maybe I missed her not being on the JW roster?
  13. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    BTW, Kostner won the Challenge Cup, scored 198 pts. total.

    126 pts. in the LP - Clean 3z, but popped a couple of jumps and went for a 3f-3t and UR'd it. Excellent, but not overwhelming.
  14. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    She's on the roster I thought
  15. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well there's also the chance she pulls another blinder like in her US Nats FS. Gracie is like a 3 sided coin - mind boggling jumping clinic, good/ok, meltdown. Usually it's somewhere in the middle though and considering the strength of her jumps, she can rack up a lot of TES points just by hitting a few of her planned jumping passes in her FS well. I was more just saying, even with the falls, Ashley is still one of the more consistent freeskaters among US senior ladies currently, and she actually has been for a number of years now. Even before she was a really a top gun in the US and internationally, she usually skated strong FS programs on the GP and Nationals and such. Not saying lights out perfect every time, but usually pretty decent - not a lot of falls or pops.
  16. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Even if Gold skated her best I dont think she could do anymore than contribute strongly to the U.S regaining 3 spots. Her LP at Nationals which is the best she is capable of at this time would only score mid 120s probably in front of an international panel. There are some women at Worlds who will probably be scoring 140 range or higher in the LP. Then several women capable of scoring in the 70s in the SP as well. Wagner has more shot of a medal but would need some help, as well as recapturing her early season form.
  17. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    No insult was intended to Park ;) - she's the only non-USA JGP ladies' medalist from this season competing at Jr. Worlds that I failed to mention yesterday:
    Gold - Radionova (3, incl. at Final), Pogorilaya, Miyahara, Kim
    Silver - Hicks, Hongo, Park
    Bronze - Pogorilaya (2, incl. at Final), Miyahara, Cesario
    (I'll cross-post this list later in the Jr. Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry.)

    BTW, Agnes Zawadzki is performing in the annual "Rondy on Ice" shows in Anchorage, Alaska this weekend.
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2013
  18. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Mid 120s is nothing to sneeze at for a first year Senior who has lots to improve on. With just a little more improvement to her her overall skating she will be a threat to the top Ladies and Wagner might find her reign as top US Lady over very quickly.
  19. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Mid 120s is nothing to sneeze at for a first year Senior who has lots to improve on. With just a little more improvement to her overall skating she will be a threat to the top Ladies and Wagner might find her reign as top US Lady over very quickly.
  20. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    This. And just because skaters like Kim, Kostner, Asada have the POTENTIAL to score in the 140s for the FS, doesn't mean they actually will. Mao broke 130 for the first time this season at 4CC just a couple weeks ago, and that was with a very good skate where she attempted :eek: content. Yuna's NRW FS likely would score in the mid-high 120s at Worlds, but the scores at that event were pretty generous so she broke 130s. Like I said, Euros scores seemed high so there's a chance at Worlds that both Tuk and Kostner's FS programs from Euros would be in the high 120s if judged under a different panel. If Gracie skates clean in the FS I expect her to score and place VERY WELL relative to the field. Sure, it could mean 6th in that segment if all the contenders kill the FS, but it could also mean like 2nd if mistakes from others slip in here and there.
  21. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    That's assuming she'll knock it out though. Odds are she won't...and she may be scoring closer to ~110 instead...where would THAT put her?
  22. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    gettin pretty darn cocky there, Jammers.............
  23. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Not cocky and i'm not saying that Gracie will ever get to that level i'm just saying with more experience and polish and better programs she has the talent to get to that level. She already has the jumps down and we've seen many skaters never reach the top because they couldn't jump because of bad technique. The other things that she needs can be taught she just needs time. The biggest thing she needs to learn to be a better competitor because that's why she skates through her music sometimes she's to much in a rush.
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2013
  24. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    I don't think bad technique keeps skaters from reaching the top nearly as often as injuries do. Naturally, this is something all top skaters hope to avoid, and I don't think you even take possible injuries into consideration with your lofty predictions. It happens to the best of them. Look at Ashley, for example.
  25. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I agree about Gold - She could contribute to 3 spots for US ladies but nothing more. I don't think there will be a group of ladies scoring over 140 pts. in the LP, though.
  26. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Any Junior Worlds reports, information, etc. out there yet?
  27. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Well...to be fair to Gold, each team member can only do her part. Neither can do it on her own and needs the other to place high as well. Hence the TEAM aspect...

    Flatt couldn't do it alone in 2009, nor could Czisny in 2011 or Wagner in 2012. Their respective teammates failed big time and that's why we lack a 3rd spot.

    I really have no idea what will happen in a month. But the trend is not pretty nor encouraging...I agree with Phil Hersh that we're all but doomed in such a strong field (even with Korpi's departure)
  28. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Well, IDK ... I think Wagner is capable of 4th and Gracie 9th:

    1. Kim
    2. Kostner or Asada
    3. Kostner or Asada
    4. Wagner
    5. Sotnikova
    6. Suzuki
    7. Tuktamysheva
    8. Gold or Murakami
    9. Gold or Murakami
    10. Osmond

    Korpi is out, the next Euro lady, Marchei, is IMO not quite in the same league as the aforementioned top 10. Gedevanishvili is more cold than hot since forever. Kexin Zheng is battling injury. Li Zijun is still quite juniorish, even if she's a revelation this season. Leonova, as the #3 RUS lady is not going to get propped up on PCS and hasn't had what I'd call one outstanding program this season (as in seasons past, when she at least showed signs of life by Russian Nats or Euros).

    The competition is in NA, which may mean something if it's close.

    HOWEVER, Wagner and Gold are going to have to hit elements (which they are capable of) to get there. The questions are 1. Is Wagner in the right place, mentally or physically? 2. Can Gracie forget about the distractions, just go out there and not get tense.
  29. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Official practices start tomorrow (Monday). Any practice reports or other news will be posted in the Junior Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry. Courtney Hicks was tweeting from Milan yesterday and Samantha Cesario tweeted she was flying yesterday.

    ETA that I've posted a compilation of Season Best Total scores for the ladies in the 2013 Junior Worlds forum: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/sho...Fun-with-Numbers-quot-Scores-amp-Stats-thread
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2013
  30. 4rkidz

    4rkidz GPF Barcelona here I come

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    although I had watched on the computer live - the ladies from 4CC - having watched it on big screen high def (closest to actually being there).. anyway I have changed my mind a bit.. I would def put Gao above Gold now.. Christina Gao really feels the music (unlike Gold) and she really skates with her whole body.. I'm less impressed with Gold - I thought when I had first seen her live at the GP it was just her nerves - but realize that she doesn't connect at all to the music - I know she is young and hope in time she does learn to connect.. but I had hoped with a few seniors competitions under her belt she would have been less juniorish (artistically not technically).. still gifted technically.. but really hope she gets some balance.. then she really will have an amazing package..
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  31. Stephanie

    Stephanie Well-Known Member

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    I just noticed on her ISU and IN bios that Courtney Hicks appears to have changed her LP music to the Red Violin from Aranjuez. I really didn't like her Aranjuez program so hopefully this is a positive step, although creating and getting used to a new LP in about a month sounds quite daunting!
  32. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    No, it's the same music. "Red Violin" = "Aranjuez" as played by violinist Ikuko Kawai - made famous by the Kween in the 2002-03 season ;): http://heatherw.com/mk/program/aranjuez.htm

    ETA: Agnes Zawadzki (Anchorage, Alaska) and Christina Gao (Willmar, Minnesota) skated in exhibition shows this past weekend in cold places. Agnes tweeted this photo of herself perfoming: http://instagram.com/p/WFy_tbA4s6/
    Christina skated to Gangnam Style and a new show program to "River" by Emeli Sande. If I find any more online skating photos, I will post links.

    Christina tweeted this photo of herself:
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2013
  33. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    if Gold skated very well in both programs she is easily capable of higher than 8th or 9th. She will crush Murakami if both skate well, and she can easily beat Suzuki, and possibly beat Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and even Wagner herself if she skates well. I dont think both Americans have to skate perfectly to reach the magic 13, but if one has a relatively poor even the other will have to perform lights out, or both will have to skate reasonably well even if not perfect.
  34. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

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    Completely agree. Gold's jumps are very exciting. But the rest of it, IMO, is quite juniorish. Hopefully she will fix that........but certainly not before Worlds.

    Kim, Asada, Kostner, could or could not be having a good day. Ashley, if it were last year, would be unstoppable.........right now, I don't know. Going to be a cliff hanger.
  35. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    "As of now" Triple-Triple in the short for Wagner, tweeted USFS about her pre-Worlds media teleconference call today.
  36. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    I honestly think it's as much to hold off Gold, Hicks & Co. back home as it is to fight for a medal.
  37. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I think Ashley knows that technically she really can't compete with Gracie she just has to hope Gold doesn't learn how to compete better or learn how to become a all-around skater with more polish.
  38. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Yup. She KNOWS she needs it or she'll be buried in the standings. Better to go for it if there is reasonable consistency.
  39. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    I dunno...I have a strange feeling it's the opposite. She'll WANT Gold to learn how to compete by next month...
  40. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

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    HUH? Gracie has great jumps, when she lands them, but her spins, footwork, etc., are not exceptional. I hope she has the the best skates of her life, but I don't think, given her track record, it is very likely. Ashley had two sub par performances in the last two seasons. My money would be on Ashley.