U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vagabond, Feb 10, 2013.

  1. Sasha'sSpins

    Sasha'sSpins Well-Known Member

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    Really!
  2. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    What is "IINM"?
  3. Nomad

    Nomad Well-Known Member

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    If I'm not mistaken
  4. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Gold has done a 3-3-3 in practice. That's as, if not more, spectacular than a 3A.
  5. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

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    Apparently Rochette landed 3A's and quad toes quite consistently in practice. I say this only to point out that lots of skaters do lots of stuff in practice that they never do in competition. It is only with the advent of YouTube that we now get a glimpse - which is very cool, but I highly doubt we will ever see Gracie attempt a 3/3/3 in competition. That said, we might see a 3A attempt post Sochi.
  6. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    Life's funny, when you come to think of it. ;)
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
  7. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Meissner landed 7 triples, including two 3-3 combos (3F+3T & 3Lz+3T) in her 2006 Worlds FS: http://youtube.com/watch?v=A1VaoEWyBeQ (FS protocols link isn't working for me so I can't confirm)

    ETA: I was replying to the original part of Vagabond's post that said Meissner didn't have a 3Lz+3T like Gold has. :)
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
  8. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    Not to be a snot, but with current judging standards, it is correct to say Meissner didn't have a 3z3t.
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  9. FSfan107

    FSfan107 Well-Known Member

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    ^
    I don't think it helped Kimmie in the long-run that they ratified her triple-triples at 2006 Worlds. Still love that moment for her though. :)
  10. Mayra

    Mayra Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure how it hurt her? :confused:

    Kimmie went as far as injury, puberty and life allowed her and IMO it had nothing to do with whether her 3/3 was ratified or not. She was measured by the same yard stick as everyone else that year and she came out on top. World Champion is certainly nothing to sneeze at.
  11. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    How so? I personally am glad that she took her shot before her body changed and she could no longer be a factor.
  12. FSfan107

    FSfan107 Well-Known Member

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    Sorry I didn't make myself very clear. I was thinking maybe she would have addressed her technique issues sooner if they didn't give her credit. Then again I'm sure some of that might have been really hard to change. I was and am a huge fan of Kimmie's, and I was thrilled when she won Worlds. I certainly wasn't sneezing at her accomplishments.
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  13. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for clarifying.
  14. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    My other point was Kimmie was a steady and reliable competitor before her body began changing. Gracie seems to have matured physically but mentally I'm not sure if she's as steady as Kimmie.

    Kimmie won Worlds on her first trip ... I actually believe there's an outside shot Gracie can as well if she pulls it all together (a lot of things would have to fall into place ... or should I say a lot of falls would have to happen for her to place).
  15. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Really!?!?! Is there any evidence/posters who talked about Joannie's quad or 3A?
  16. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    If there were, wouldn't we have seen the YouTube clips by now? ;) (I think that was mag's point and I vaguely remember reading references to Rochette's prowess in practices in the past.)

    Fair point, as Meissner was more consistent as a Novice (2003 U.S. champ) vs. Gold (2010 U.S. pewter medalist after a SP with mistakes).
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
  17. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    If Kim and Asada were absent I would agree, but...
  18. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    BTW, Kostner just hit it out of the park in the SP at The Challenge Cup in the Netherlands today:

    http://schaatsen.nl/challenge-cup-2013/uitslagen

    72.81 - Nailed 3l, 3t-3t, 2x and all level 4 spins except the layback.

    Thinking Worlds will be Yu Na, Mao and Carolina gunning for medals after the SP, with Ashley chasing them in 4th or possibly 5th (depends on Sotnikova). Not necessarily a bad thing for Ashley, but ...
  19. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    If Wagner got a 3-3 she could hit 70 as well. Remember she was getting 67 for her SP as is.
  20. Maximillian

    Maximillian Well-Known Member

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    I do question whether Wagner will get those kind of marks though if the field is skating well in London. I could easily see her PCS dropping a wee bit to keep her in a safe and steady 5th place or so. I just have the feeling that the judges have her marked as a 4-8th skater at this point and those kind of things do inform how PCS's can be marked.
  21. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Yeah, but however, don't you think had AshleyW continued with her early season brilliance and not had the rough patch at GPF (a couple of fluke falls) and at U.S. Nats (loss of training time due to hip pointer and food poisoning combined with nerves, resulting in a couple of fluke falls), that she might be heading into Worlds being considered more of a threat for the podium? Also, especially had she worked up to landing a clean 3/3 at a late season comp prior to Worlds? OTOH, maybe it's a good thing if Ash is right now being considered more of an underdog.

    Oh, the constantly rising, receding, rumbling and fluctuating tides of figure skating. Debate and speculation will never cease, and I guess that's as it should be. ;)

    BTW, I was just looking at the recent performance of another Ashley; Cain to be exact. She really is so lovely to watch on the ice. Too bad there doesn't seem to be a tall partner around so she might continue to pursue pairs. AshleyC had such a gorgeous lp skate going at the recent U.S. Nats, but she suffered a couple of falls which kept her down in the standings. Since her mother is a former Canadian ice dancer, and her Dad hails from Australia, I wonder if AshleyC might at all be considering the possibility of making an attempt to skate for either Canada or Australia in singles. It might give her more of an opportunity to compete at Worlds, especially in light of the packed standings and limited spots available in the U.S. ladies ranks at the moment.


    Re Carolina Kostner, thanks for the info, olympic. I was looking at Caro's Euros lp yesterday. I'm impressed by the way she's improved her technique and consistency on her jumps. Most likely, partly as a result of winning Worlds and having such a great season last year, her confidence and maturity are very palpable right now. I wonder why Caro was briefly considering retirement? Hunger is definitely necessary to go the long haul for Sochi.

    However much I admire Yu Na, Caro, and Mao, I kinda wish to see some unexpected results at Worlds. ;)
  22. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Interesting you throw Sotnikova into the mix but not Tuktamysheva? The SP hasn't been Liza's strength this season, but as a whole, she's done better than Adelina overall. I know Adelina beat her by a few points at Europeans but Tuk has had the better season and her FS scores have been consistently high.
  23. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I think it's b/c the only area Liza can beat out people is on jumps. The rest of her skating is good but not at the level needed to challenge for the top. She's getting better and has improved since last season but in terms of someone who could challenge the top, this year, it's Adelina. I think Liza's confidence is much better and Adelina's appears to be on the upswing since nationals so we'll have to see how those two handle their first worlds.

    As for Ashley, I don't doubt that if she adds the content to her programs she'll be in the medal hunt. With a 3-3 she'll give herself a much better shot at competing with the top names. Despite what she said, she needs it. Mao has the 3A planned plus two other triples; Yu-Na, Carolina, Akiko, Adelina, Liza, Kaetlyn, Zijun, Gracie and probably a few more all have some kind of 3-3 planned. Ashley was able to skate by with her 3f-2t at nationals without any problems but there's very little chance of her making that final flight if she doesn't at least attempt a 3-3. Take the -GOE from the 2-foot landing but put that combo in there. It's a necessity at this point.
  24. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ You might be right re strategy needed for AshleyW. Will be interesting to see what approach she takes. I think AshleyW definitely has two highly competitive programs and unique all-around spunk and polished packaging, which enhances a skater's image. At this point, she also needs confident, clean, extra added difficult-content-filled programs too. As usual, skate position will likely play into her coaching team's strategy.

    In regard to Sotnikova, she's extremely talented artistically and technically, but I haven't seen anything yet this season indicating that she's overcome her nerves during big international competitions. Liza has a determined mindset and she's a battler, but honestly, I am not in love with her skating.
  25. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Adelina had a very strong SP at nationals and did decently in the LP. But she had her best performance of the season at Europeans. That was her first major senior international event and she did wonderfully. That's not to say her consistency woes are of the past, just that over the course of her last two competitions she's shown improvement.

    Liza's jumps are amazing but her overall skating isn't something the judges typically look for. That's not to say she won't do well...just that if both Liza and Adelina skate well, Adelina usually comes out on top and I can't say I disagree with that.
  26. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ I'll take your word that's statistically the case, since I don't closely follow either of them. But just from what I've seen in the early course of this season, it seemed like Liza tended to prevail a bit more re pulling out clean programs. I do agree that Sotnikova has more edge re potentially great artistry.

    I'm really not sure what judges typically look for, other than technical consistency, since IJS has kind of limited and therefore further challenged artistic growth, IMHO. It will definitely be interesting to see how all the ladies prevail this season at Worlds.
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
  27. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I hope so. As long as she hits the 3-3 cleanly and gets her levels on the spins and FW. I think Ashley's biggest challenge is to NOT get ahead of herself: Take each element as it comes. If she can do that, she might medal
  28. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    If Ashley skates a clean SP w/ a 3-2, it's still possible for her to be around 5th w/ that content (as long as she gets her levels), isn't it? Her SP got 66 pts. at the GPF.

    And correct me if I'm wrong, but the only people ahead of her in the SP this season score-wise are 1. Yu Na (71 pts.), 2. Mao (74 pts.) 3. Carolina (72 pts.), and 4. Adelina (67 pts.). Akiko has scored 65 pts. x2, and that despite a 3-3 and skating lights out in her home country, probably because she is the #2 JPN lady. Kiira scored in the mid-60s at Finlandia, but she's now gone from the competition. Kanako is around 64 pts. right now, but we'll see if she's called on any rotations at Worlds outside of JPN. Gracie clean in the SP is around 62 pts. If she does a Rippon Lutz (possible, maybe not likely), that might come up around 64 pts.

    Liza has not scored near that this year in the SP, and Kaetlyn is kind of new to the scene. She was a bit subpar at 4CC's.

    Who else is there to effectively knock a clean 3-2 Ashley out of the final group then??

    Ashley is pretty darn good at skating the LP while being a little behind after the SP. That might be a strategy. OTOH, I'd like to see the 3-3, all guns blazing just because it would add to some dynamic skating.

    Honestly, I think this competition will be even more high-caliber and intense than Vancouver!
  29. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Source

    Obviously one time doesn't mean she did it regularly, but I also can't imagine someone trying for a quad only once either.
    mag and (deleted member) like this.
  30. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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  31. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    If all or enough of Kim, Asada, Kostner, Suzuki, Sot, Tuk, Murakami, Gold etc go clean in the short, Wagner might not even make the final flight with just a 3/2 in the short.

    HOWEVER

    Maththematically, a 3flip3toe gives her a boost in base value of around 2.7 from a 3flip2toe. But she usually gets +1s and some +2s on the 3/2 combo. If she goes for the 3/3 and 2foots / steps out / falls and worse yet gets an < call, she may actually be worse off than she were to land a clean and secure 3/2.
  32. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    ITA. But even if she's edged out of the final group, she should still be close to a top 5 position score wise. While it's best to skate in the final group, she ended up 4th from the penultimate group last year.

    I think she should do the 3-2 in the SP, and try for 2a3t in the LP.

    Regarding her 3l..2a series, it is barely worth more than a 3l2t. If she could do a 3l-tano 2t, she would probably break even.

    Someone suggested she should work on 2a1/2l3sal. That would be a great combo for her. Too bad 3l on the end of combos is so risky, as a 2a3loop would solve a lot of issues for her!
  33. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, that's why it's a risk in the first place. But she really needs to get into that final group if she wants the big FS scores. Not convinced she will make it with just a 3/2 (unless one or more of the above messes up, which is not likely). The SP is crucial, really...
  34. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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  35. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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  36. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it's just me but did anyone else find the scores at Europeans at bit high/inflated? I know 4CCs is notorious for being that way, but those marks seemed less generous this year, and Europeans more. In order words, I could see Adelina having a clean SP at Worlds and scoring say a 64 instead of a 67, meaning a clean Ashley with a 3-2 might be able to beat her. Also Kanako was at 64 for getting all her jumps rotated...considering ALL her jumps in the SP are in the 2nd half and URs have a been an ongoing issue for awhile now, I would assume she's more likely destined for a score in the low 60s (like 60-63) for her SP at Worlds, and if more than one jump gets called or she has mistakes then lower than that. Tuk with a 3lz-3t, 3lo, and 2a tano in the SP should score high, potentially higher than Adelina with 3t-3t and 3f, but for whatever reason Tuk seems to be a lot more consistent with her jumps in the FS and less so in the SP, odd as that may seem.

    If Ashley can get 3f-3t< but otherwise landed cleanly or 3f-3t with full rotation but a slight two-foot, it might help her score a point or so, but any bigger issue than that and she's better of with the 3-2 IMO. Risk versus reward. She just needs to be in the hunt after the SP, skating in the final warmup should help her from a PCS standpoint in the FS, but skating in the penultimate group if she's a couple points behind the medalists is not a terrible position to be in. Ashley is a strong FS skater, what she needs to avoid is having a mess of a SP, which is why she may want to forego the 3f-3t because she has confidence she can nail the SP with a 3-2 through having done that all season.

    Further, doing a 3-2 in the SP, if it ends up putting her in the penultimate warm-up group, might make her MORE likely to try for 2a-3t in the FS because she won't have the luxury of knowing how others ahead of her have done, whereas if she's in the final flight and most of the ladies are making mistakes, she might just play it safe and try and pull out the clean skate. I feel like Ando used this strategy in 2010-2011 and it usually worked, she just did 2a-2t at her GPs and it was enough to win, then at GPF she was in last going into the FS so did the 2a-3t and she wound up winning the FS even though overall she was only 5th, she again went for 2a-3t at Nationals and 4CCs because she had to compete against Mao. But then at Worlds, Mao was sort of out of the picture after the SP, Yuna did not have a clean SP either, and Carolina wasn't trying much content, so Miki played it safe with 2a-2t and ended up being World Champ anyways.
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  37. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    She may have BEEN a strong free skater...however, she's had four falls in her last two attempts. Whoops
  38. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    You are not alone
  39. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    You keep repeating this ad nauseum. I think we're all aware of what happened at the GPF and Nationals by now. Thankfully, Ashley has had some time to regroup now.
  40. morqet

    morqet Active Member

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    Looking at Adelina in particular, the difference in her score at Euros over Ashley's efforts this year all came in TES - and really mostly from the 3-3. At the GPF Ashley had everything called as level 4, same as Adelina at Europeans, so they both had a base value for non jump elements of 13.2. However, the 3-3 gives her a 1.6 lead over Ashley, and even though Ashley has 2 jumps getting the credit for being in the second half, she can't make that difference up. I didn't find her SP score over inflated at all - every element was sharp & clean, the program is really well put together and her speed & ice coverage is really noticable when you see her live. Same with Carolina. The only mark from Europeans that I would quibble with is Liza's free skate - it's all jumps & nothing else. There are really strong contenders from Europe, Japan and Canada all capable of producing short programs in the region of 62-67 points, and Gracie and Ashley are going to have very little room for error.