U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vagabond, Feb 10, 2013.

  1. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    New article on Agnes Zawadzki: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130502&content_id=46432502&vkey=ice_news
    She says she loves her new FS (tango medley of "La Cumparsita" and "Jalousie"), choreographed by David Wilson.
    Excerpt:
     
  2. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, Sylvia.

    Well, she sounds ambitious, but I hope she doesn't bite off more than she can chew. I would be happy just seeing her complete a clean LP (and the judges would really reward that because they seem to like her)
     
  3. b-man

    b-man Active Member

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    I tend to agree with your initial impression of Wagner's FS, and RD's assessment, it was worth no more than a 115 score. You say Gracie bombed her SP, I would say Wagner bombed the FS every bit as much as Gracie bombed the short, and bombing the FS, which is worth more points, should have cost Wagner more points, but it didn't. If you talk about the quality of what Wagner did in the FS, (and many found the 2nd half of the program cautious and labored), one could also talk about the quality of what Gold did perform in the SP, not what she didn't do. If Wagner was overscored in the FS, and many believe Gold was overscored, in either the short or FS, and many believe Agnes was held up with falls in the short and FS, I certainly don't have any clear conviction of who the overall winner should have been. But I do have a clear conviction Wagner and Gold were the correct selections for the world team. When National results is the sole criteria for selecting the world team, it leads to scoring decisions that leave serious figure skating fans, let alone the general TV audience, scratching their heads.
     
  4. Cyn

    Cyn Well-Known Member

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    From everything I could tell, yes. She even has her first two jumping passes, at least one of her spins, and the spiral starting exactly where Sasha had hers to that cut of music :shuffle:.
     
  5. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Again, and I'm not just saying this in a smart-ass kind of way, judge the competition yourself. It does require some math and a little time but personally I find it fun...

    Watch the program, assign GOE to each element. You can pull the base value of each element from the protocols and you can find the SOV (Scale of Values) online; SOV tells you how much +/- GOE is worth for each element. Add that up and it's your TES. Then go through and reward PCS for the five categories and factor your total according to the program (I think it's 0.8 for the SP and 1.6 for the FS). Once you do that, add your scores together and you'll have the segment score. The interesting part is comparing your scores to the judges' scores.

    It's easy to throw out a number and say that's all a program deserved but when you have to account for every point, you see it's not as easy as you think. Unless your scoring is very biased/one-sided or you're manipulating the numbers, it's difficult to make those scores add up to what you think they should be. It's a really insightful way to evaluate how and why the scores turn out the way they do.

    You should try it. I'd be interested to see what you come up with. :)
     
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  6. minignome

    minignome New Member

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    Ok, I'm a numbers person, so I've done some looking into the "Gold was gifted/Gao was robbed/USFS/NBC collusion to prop up Gold", discussion, and so far, I'm not buying it. Perhaps someone can tell me objectively where I've gone wrong? Should point out that I only looked at the scores for the top 12 finishers overall.

    The range in PCS in the short went from 32.83 (Wagner) to 24.12 (Wang). Gold ended up with 26.34 points. The TES scores in the short for the top 12 ranged from 30.43 (Zawadzki) to 23.5 (Zhang). Gold's base TES was 27.7 (7th overall). GOE points ranged from 7.1 (Nagasu) to .2 (Zhang) Gold was 10th with 1.04 GOE. So, if you assume that the TES actually reflects what was done on the ice (and I think this is the most objective thing to judge) and over/under marking by the judges has to be done in the PCS and GOE, Gold would have maybe been 4 points lower (12th in PCS/GOE is -2.23/-1.03), which still would have put her with about 50 points and in 12th overall.

    In the free program, Gold was second overall in PCS (61.35 points behind Wagner's 65.82). The lowest PCS of the top 12 was 53.02. Gold picked up 10.83 GOE points, Hicks was second with 7.82 while the rest of the top 12 ranged from 4.56 to .36 points with the average being 4.43 points. The average PCS for the top 12 overall in the free was 57.52 points. I personally think Gold's free skate was above average, but, even if you dropped the PCS to average, she loses 3.83 points. If you drop the GOE to average, that's another 6.4 points. So, the range she was over scored throughout the competition was 7.83 - 14.23 points. Which, if you assume all others in the competition were scored correctly, her overall score should have been between 178.74 (third) to 172.34 (seventh). But given Zawadzki's not so stellar competition, I would argue that Zawadzki was also somewhat gifted and should not have had 179.63 points, so I would still put Gold ahead of Zawadzki.

    Gao being underscored has a little more merit, but not much. Her base TES in the short was 4th overall with 29.21 points. Her PCS in the short was also 4th overall with 27.81 points, but she only picked up 2.72 GOE points (7th). In the free her base TES was 6th overall with 54.87 points, her GOE was 5th with 4.43 points, and her PCS was 5th with 58.24 points. Her overall competition TES was 5th overall behind Gold, Siraj, Hicks & Wang. Her GOE score was 5th overall behind Hicks, Gold, Wagner, Zawadzki. Her PCS overall was 5th behind Wagner, Zawadzki, Nagasu and Gold. Given that Gao's PCS scores were almost 6 points higher than Hicks, I don't see how Hicks was gifted to beat Gao -- Hicks gained the advantage by having a slightly higher base TES and 7 point advantage in GOE in skating 2 clean programs. If anyone was gifted, it was Zawadzki who picked up 5 PCS and nearly three GOE points over Gao through the competition despite falling in both the short and the free. So, one could argue that Gao did more than Zawadzki, but did not get as much credit for it, but then you'd still Hicks ahead of Gao.

    Wagner might have been gifted with a 7 point PCS advantage over Gao in the free (and a 12.5 PCS advantage in the competition), but given the Gao wasn't clean in the short, while Wagner was outstanding, and Gao's base competition TES was only 2.41 over Wagner's, I don't think there is a case to be made that Gao should have been higher than Wagner. I would agree that Wagner's free skate PCS might have been over rated given the quality of the program (4.5+ points better than Gold or Zawadzki), but I will confess, PCS is a mystery to me, and I do believe even though I'm not supposed to, that a multiple fall program no matter how artistic, should be downgraded a bit -- to me falls are disruptive.

    Bottom line is that while the points may be off here or there, I think overall the judges got at least 1st and second correct. Given that less than 5 points separated 3-6, arguments could be made for jostling of the placements, depending on what you value in a competitor, but I'm having a hard time believing that the judging was totally off based on what I saw in the skating and the scores.
     
  7. b-man

    b-man Active Member

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    I don't question your motivation for your reply, I have read your posts before and amost always appreciate them. You go into a little detail on Wagner's TES score. I generally accept her TES as scored by the judges. I have a lot more confidence in TES scores than components, as TES scores tend to be much more objective and based on the current skate, rather than based on reputation or a skate that took place 3 months ago. The judges ranked Wagner EIGHTH in TES for the FS. I generally agree with this ranking. I watched Wagner's skate a number of times, both in person and on DVD. Do I think she was better in the FS than Hicks, Gao, Siraj, Cesario. No I don't. Do you? Wagner received a 65.82 component score, for a skate that, in addition to the two falls, was cautious, slow and labored in the second half. Shouldn't a skate that, in addition to two falls, has a long period that is cautious, slow and labored receive lower PCS scores than normal? While a Wagner at her best might deserve a 65.82, this was not Ashley at her best, and the component score was not deserved for her FS on this night. I took a quick look at her component score in the FS at San Jose in 2012. Wagner had a better skate that night, certainly higher TES, but received only a 63.32 component score. As another poster said, the judges in Omaha did what they needed to do to insure Wagner would be on the world team. Even Wagner, in her NBC post skate interview, said the rest of her season helped her in her nationals result.
     
  8. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Aren't the elements worth the same points whether SP or LP? Under 6.0 the SP was worth less.
     
  9. sk8indel

    sk8indel Member

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    I saw a post someplace about Angela Wang's SP demons, and I decided to dig back to see if she had ever been a short program skater, or has always dug a hole for herself to climb out of.

    I've decided to look at Angela's nationals performance as far back as I can find. I'm just recording jumps with GOEs unless there is a non-jump element that has a negative GOE, in which case I'll point it out. I'll also make note if something is given less than a level 3. I also added who she was beaten by in the older competitions because it's interesting to see how many of the girls are left/where they are now)

    These are my findings.

    2013 Nationals - Senior - 16 years old
    Short Program - 52.06, 10th place (3Lz -2.10 fall, 3F+2T +0.70, 2A +0.43)
    Free Skate - 112.70, 8th place (3Lz+3T+2T +1.20, 3F +1.20, 3Lo -0.20, 3T+2A+SEQ +0.70, 3Lz+2T -0.70, 3S< -2.10 fall, 2A)
    Total - 164.76, 9th place

    2012 Nationals - Senior - 15 years old
    Short Program - 48.98, 16th place (3F -2.10 fall, 3Lz+2T, 2A +0.29)
    Free Skate - 109.68, 6th place (3F+2T +0.90, 3Lz+3T -0.70, 2A +0.29, 3Lo +0.80, 3S +0.80, 3Lz +0.90, 2A+2T+1Lo +0.07)
    Total - 158.66, 8th place

    2011 Pacific Coast Sectionals - Didn't make nationals - Junior - 14 years old
    Short Program - 41.04, 6th place (3Lz+COMBO fall -2.10, 3Lo< -0.70, 2A 0.13, FCSp3 -0.30)
    Free Skate - 76.44, 5th place (2A+1T, 3Lz+2T, 3F -0.35, 3Lo< fall -2.10, 3Lz fall -2.10, 2A+2T+2T fall -1.13, 3S< -1.23, only got level 2 on 2 spins and step sequence)
    Total - 117.48, 5th place
    Beaten by Courtney Hicks, Katarina Kulgeyko, Polina Edmunds, and Mary Beth Marley

    2010 Nationals - Junior - 13 years old
    Short Program - 52.88, 3rd place (3Lo+2T +0.43, 3F big step out -1.43, 2A +0.57, level 1 flying sit)
    Free Skate - 70.65, 10th place (3Lz< fall -1.00, 3F!< fall -1.00, 3Lo< -0.04, 3S+2T +0.57, 3S, 3T< -0.13, 2A+2A<+SEQ -1.86, level 2 step sequence)
    Total - 123.53, 7th place
    Beaten by Agnes Zawadzki, Yasmin Siraj, Lindsay Davis, Kiri Baga, Nina Jiang, Felicia Zhang

    2009 Nationals - Novice - 12 years old
    Short Program - 34.58, 5th place (2A +0.29, 3S+2T step out -1.14, 3T< -0.56, CCoSp4 -0.56)
    Free Skate - 79.97, 1st place (2Lz +0.36, 3S +0.86, 3T+2T +0.29, 2F +0.43, 3S+2T+2Lo +0.43, 2A+2A+SEQ +0.86, CCoSp4 -0.04, level 2 step sequence, she was also the only girl in the competition to elect to do a step sequence instead of a spiral sequence)
    Total - 114.55, 3rd place
    Beaten by Kiri Baga, Mary Beth Marley

    2008 Junior Nationals - Intermediate - 11 years old
    Short Program - 29.53, 8th place (2F +0.30, 2Lz+2Lo, 2A -0.32, level 2 on step sequence and both spins)
    Free Skate - 60.21, 5th place (2F +0.20, 2A+2T +0.20, 3T -0.80, 2Lz+2Lo, 3S<+2T -0.60, 2A +0.20, level 2 layback)
    Total - 89.74, 4th place
    Beaten by Nina Jiang, Kelly Nguyen, Lauren Dinh
    Qualifying Round A - 65.16, 1st place (2F +0.20, 2A+2T, 3T step out -1.00, 2Lz+2Lo +0.10, 3S+2T -0.80, 2A +0.60, level 2 layback)

    2007 Junior Nationals - Intermediate - 10 years old (Note that PCS was factored higher here, causing scores to look inflated)
    Short Program - 33.75, 5th place (2F +0.40, 2Lz+2Lo, 2A +0.20, CCoSp4 -0.08, level 1 step sequence)
    Free Skate - 57.56, 11th place (2F +0.10, 3S<+2T -0.54, 3T -0.20, 2A<+2T -0.60, 2Lz fall -1.00, 2A -0.14, Lsp2 -0.02, level 1 step sequence, level 2 layback)
    Total - 91.31, 9th place
    Beaten by Gretchen Donaln, Agnes Zawadzki, Bryna Oi, Deanna Inn, Vanessa Lam, Mariyah Thurston, Georgia Glastris, Kiri Baga
    Qualifying Round A - 67.52, 1st place (2F +0.38, 3S<+2T< -0.70, 3T, 2A+2T< -0.88, 2Lz+2Lo, 2A +0.08, level 1 flying combo spin, level 2 step sequence and layback)

    2006 Junior Nationals - Juvenile - 9 years old
    Final Round - 7th, lost tie breaker to Mariyah Thurston (Ordinals 4, 4, 6, 6, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
    Beaten by Marissa Secundy, Keauna McLaughlin, Margaret Stevenson, Katlynn McNab, Gretchen Donlan, Mariyah Thurston
    Qualifying Round A - 2nd (Ordinals 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4)
    Beaten by Keauna McLaughlin (8 year old Nina Jiang was 12th)

    Angela has never skated a completely clean short program at nationals, however, she has at regionals and sectionals over the years. It seems like when the pressure is on, she messes up the short and digs herself to a place of no longer having pressure on her. At that point she puts out a great free, even back in 2009 she won the free program after a mediocre short. If she can conquer those SP demons, she should do very well.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2013
  10. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Wang also skated a clean SP at JGP Croatia this past season and got a 58+ score, she hit the 3lz-3t combo there too. So she can do it and she has before.
     
  11. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    My Jinx Radar has been activated with this comment:

    Looks like 3rd place will be someone else this year.
     
  12. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    :lol: we'll see. One thing's for sure, though, no one has proved to be able to deliver under intense pressure, so if you think about it everyone's in the same boat.
     
  13. b-man

    b-man Active Member

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    Agnes-Sent to two ISU championships, last American of three at Four Continents in 2012 with a 157 score, last American at Four Continentsw in 2013 with an 8th place 158 score.
     
  14. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    Jinxes are meant to be broken. ;)

    Show news: Gao, Zawadzki, Flatt and U.S. Junior silver medalist Mariah Bell performed in the fundraising gala at USFS' Governing Council in Colorado Springs this past Saturday, while Gold was the guest star at the Seven Bridges Ice Arena show near Chicago.
     
    Last edited: May 6, 2013
  15. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    I just hope that if Agnes makes it on the team next year, she does it with decent skates and not propped up ones. My dream team would be Ashley, Gracie, and Mirai.
     
  16. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    I've only heard of two skaters who won competitions after jinxing themselves - Ashley Wagner and Katarina Witt. Not saying it can't happen but super improbable.

    This is of course, very unscientific... :slinkaway
     
  17. Gabybackhand

    Gabybackhand Member

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    I wouldnt want Nagasu to make the team. OK if she clearly deserves it with the 3rd best skates I hope she gets it, as I want a fair competiton (although I believe Wagner and Gold deserved to be held up and given the first 2 spots even if they have a bad skate at Nationals) for the 3rd spot. However I would rather see a skater with future potential like Zawadzki or Gao get it. Nagasu already had her career high point, and she is never going to get back there again, and she has already had her shining Olympic dream moment in Vancouver.
     
  18. centerstage01

    centerstage01 Well-Known Member

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    Contradiction, much?
     
  19. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Yup, can't have it both ways....either you give EVERYONE a fair shot or you play favorites.
     
  20. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    Well, this is US Nationals. I have a feeling if Alissa is anywhere near 3rd place, she will get some love from the judges. She has to be a huge sentimental favorite, plus she's so marketable in USFSA's eyes.
     
  21. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Yeah and Zawadzki is a future potential star? She has potential and talent, but can't put it together herself when the pressure is on. Agnes is getting somewhat better at controlling her nerves, but they watered down her jump content this season, and now there's talk of her going all out next season. I just hope she isn't propped up after skating like she has at the past 3 nationals. At this point, despite Christina being 5th at Nationals for 4 straight years in a row, is more of a potential star than Agnes. To the very least, Christina and Mirai have put it together more times than Agnes.
     
  22. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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  23. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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  24. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I'd like Gao to go to worlds at least once, as she's done reasonably well at US nationals year after year but never quite made the team. I think she'll be fine at worlds.

    I'd like the Olympic spots to go to someone who hasn't been to the Olympics but two of the worlds spots to go to those who haven't gone to worlds. Unreasonable request, I know
     
  25. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Still could happen - Flatt is out of it, and Nagasu, while still in contention, has a serious uphill battle ahead of her.
     
  26. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Very true. What is the likelihood of Mirai getting a GP event next season? I know she got bronze at NHK last year but does her 7th place finish at nationals factor into her chances of getting assignments? I never took the time to work out how GPs are distributed :-/. I do know the countries have to invite the skaters to participate but what goes into the decision to extend an invite?
     
  27. toddlj

    toddlj Livestreams at 1am on Thanksgiving weekend? OK!

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    She is guaranteed one event due to her SB score (#15). In theory, she should get two right away, considering how good her SB is, but last year she had to wait until the last minute to get her second one.
     
  28. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to GP & U.S. Sectionals!

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    See this thread in GSD: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?87901-2013-14-ISU-Grand-Prix-Pre-announcement-Thread

    Guaranteed 2 GP for placing top 12 at Worlds: Wagner & Gold
    Guaranteed at least 1 GP invite:
    Top 24 in both SB & WS: Nagasu, Gao, Zawadzki
    Top 24 SB only: Miller, Wang (has indicated publicly she will return to JGP)
    Comeback skater: Czisny

    May have a chance for an invite - just below top 24 SB: Cesario (tied for #27)
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2013
  29. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Thanks guys! :)

    What about Hicks? Is she turning senior this year? Because of her 4th place finish at nationals does that mean she's entitled to an invite? Maybe Skate America?
     
  30. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    Nationals doesn't have anything to do with GP selection (except for host picks), so if she decides to go senior internationally, and USFS submits her name, she'd have a chance of getting selected. I don't think she's very high on the Season's Best list though, so she may have trouble getting selected and a host pick at SA may be her best chance.