U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vagabond, Feb 10, 2013.

  1. Karpenko

    Karpenko Well-Known Member

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    The 3flip/3toe in the SP and 2axel/3toe in the LP is what she's been training (and attempted last year when she won 4CC over Mao) for 2 seasons now and they are not new combos for her. I'm a bit :confused: why there is this panic as if its new difficulty. If she wants to be in contention to be World Champion, she will need both. I would love to see her medal at this Worlds, she will need to attack the hell out of it though. I think she can do it. :cheer:
     
  2. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    Oh you know, we need a bit of drama the week before the Worlds. And why not throw in the old "Ashley is over the hill and can't hold it together against some mysterious US teens nipping at her heels." I wonder who they are, Gold who has a lot to prove, aside.
     
  3. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    They are not new combos for her, but she rarely attempts them, let alone lands them cleanly. Her attempts at WTT last season was closest since her break through, but even then she got negative GOEs on them. And those were her 3rd attempts at competitions last season.

    This season she has yet to attempt them at all.
     
  4. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think Ashley hit the 3f-3t at '12 WTT, and I also remember her doing one during the '10 - '11 GP season when she was still coached by Priscilla before receiving improved jump technique from Nicks. It's probably not a matter of her track record at this stage, it's a matter of where her head is and what she is laying out on practice ice right now in full run-throughs (which we don't know) because she historically seems competitive and ambitious. She has nothing to defend at Worlds and she is chasing Kim, Kostner and Asada score-wise which is a good position for an ambitious, competitive skater to be in. Skipping 4CC's was a good move. She will have had 6 weeks to regroup.

    Hopefully, the USFSA or outside figures aren't putting the magic # 13 pressure on her (or Gracie for that matter), that's the one thing I can see clouding her (or Gracie's) mind as they step on the ice.
     
  5. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    For me Ashley's 3-3s (and 2A-3T) are like Kwan's and Slutskaya's. They couldn't depend on them, they trotted them out once or twice a season during the biggest comps and hope they suceeded.

    Fast forward for a decade and a half, and ladies are doing them in every competition, both short and long programs. The level of consistency is simply not the same, and Ashley doesn't have the confidence on the 3-3s that Tukt/Sokt/Gold/Kim/Suzuki/Osmond etc have. I'm not putting her down, I just think her strengths are mature, seamless presentation , not 3-3s, and she should stick to her strengths. By doing so, I think she has a good possibility of beating the majority of Sokt/Tukt/Gold/Suzuki/Murakami/Osmond. All those girls seem much stronger at the 3-3s than Ashley, but they are more likely to make mistakes elsewhere, and have more errors overall, which negates the points earned on their 3-3s relative to a clean Ashley. In short, skate smart, not hard.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2013
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  6. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    I don't foresee Team Wagner taking any massive risks. If anything they're more likely to play it safe if she isn't showing consistency on them.

    At the same time, she knows better than anyone else that if you want the title, you have to skate for it, not play it safe and hope others screw up so you can back into it. Now, the latter has happened, but it is the exception rather than the rule.

    If she wants to be 4th or 5th again, playing it safe might be a good idea. But if she really wants to challenge for a medal, it's going to take more.
     
  7. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ...which is an interesting situation: Is there any pressure to get 3 spots put on individual skaters by the USFSA? If so, team Wagner might go for 'safe' but as I said, it really depends on her mindset and what she's been doing in practice the last month.
     
  8. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    From Wagner's pre-Worlds media teleconference call (link to listen was posted earlier) in reply to the question of "How much is it weighing on you?":
    "I was personally affected the most directly from only having 2 spots going into the last Olympics and this the U.S. ladies' last shot to get that third spot back. So there is definitely a ton of pressure at this competition and I think that the U.S. is sending a very capable team. I think that Gracie and I, as long as we skate solid performances, we'll be able to accomplish that. but I am definitely aware that there is a lot at stake at this competition."
     
  9. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's a wise decision to throw in a 3/3 that you haven't done all season. Ashley should play it safe. Even if she gets 4th or 5th, everyone will be happy because it's a solid contribution to getting the third spot.
     
  10. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Wagner stated in her media teleconference call that "Mr. Nicks calls the shots and going into Worlds he'll make the final decision" [about trying the 3F+3T in the SP and/or 2A+3T in the FS]. She has been consistent in saying this all season long.
     
  11. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Again, I just hope the two of them only worry about what they can control (i.e. their skating) and forget (or at least try to) about the whole 3 spots business.

    ETA: also, remember that Wagner playing it safe for 5th puts more pressure on Gold for a higher (top 8) finish. Whereas if Wagner is successful at pulling off a more difficult skate and eeks out 3rd, Gold can be anywhere in the top 10. Best thing to do is just skate the best they can and let the chips fall.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2013
  12. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    I trust Nicks. If the decision's on him, I trust his judgement.

    And NO, I don't see him telling her not to do the 3-3 or 2A-3T and her going out there and doing it anyway.
     
  13. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    Or, everyone could go lights out and Wagner might be 5th with her 10 triples between short and long.

    ETA:

    Mao/Yuna/Carolina
    Mao/Yuna/Carolina
    Mao/Yuna/Carolina
    Akiko/Russian
    Wagner
    Akiko/Russian

    This is a very likely scenario, frankly.
     
  14. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    ^ which is EXACTLY why I think it's a lost cause hoping for 3 spots. The US women had their best opportunity last year but it was wasted. Even then, though, not like throwing in Zawadzki would enhance chances any (all due respect).

    I just question whether in the big scheme of things, our team is good enough to do what it's being asked to do.
     
  15. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

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    Now that, is excellent!
     
  16. SueSue

    SueSue Active Member

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    Well said. ITA. Leave these girls alone. They certainly don't need the added pressure from fans.
     
  17. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    The Professional Skaters Association (PSA) announced the 2013 U.S. Nationals winners of their EDI Awards for Best Performance on March 4.

    From the PSA's Facebook page:
     
  18. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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  19. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I read the whole article. It sounds like she's in good shape and she's mentally ready ....

    snip from Sylvia's article (bold mine):

     
  20. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

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    If Wagner is "ready to bring the competition" then she should do the 3-3 and not let it be the decision of Mr. Nick. She likes to "talk the talk", so just DO IT!
     
  21. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    Gracie Gold had her pre-Worlds media teleconference call today and the most significant change to her programs is that she is swapping her SP combination and solo triple, according to Phil Hersh's tweet:
    USFS tweeted:
     
  22. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Can't disagree.
     
  23. FSfan107

    FSfan107 Well-Known Member

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    I'm glad Gracie is going for the triple lutz-triple toe! I think the lutz is a stronger jump for her than the flip (not that any of her jumps are a weakness). I'm excited to see her new costume for the short. My hope for Gracie at Worlds is that she is finally able put out two strong programs this year.
     
  24. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Finally! Stick with the same 3/3 for both programs!
     
  25. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    I soooo agree! It made sense when she was in junior last year with the lutz being the mandatory solo jump, but why waste time on two different 3/3s when you don't need to?
     
  26. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    There's a ton of strategy here. John Nicks is playing Jutta Mueller.

    I'm just guessing, but I think they may be working to see if they can get Ashley all Level 4's on spins and FW in the SP and LP. That alone would get her 66 pts. in the SP and around 130 pts. in the LP. Right there, you have Ashley able to achieve a total of 196 pts. w/ no 3-3 or 2x-3t if she does her jump layouts from SA and TEB. Maybe they think that will be enough for a bronze ...

    But, I think they are counting on Carolina under pressure popping a jump or two and Mao UR'ing here and there (or missing a 3x and unraveling a bit), though.

    FTR, I think if she's doing 3-3's or 2x-3t in practice with a high success rate, she should just go for it. Skate for herself
     
  27. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I never understood why Gracie went for different 3-3s especially when she's more consistent at hitting the lutz-toe. So what is her solo jump going to be? 3F? She'll run the risk of getting the same edge call. I think she should do a 3L. Her 3L is great, it's easier, and with the added +GOE she'd probably get more points than doing a 3F with all of the edge deductions.
     
  28. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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  29. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Thanks, Sylvia.

    Reading the article about obtaining 3 spots made me think that newcomers like Gracie, under normal circumstances in the past where the US always had 3 spots, would've had time to relax and learn how to perform on the big stage because there were 2 others to 'help out'. Unfortunately, 2 US ladies are being thrust into a situation that, in addition to regular performance issues, they are also burdened with trying to get a high finish because it's all up to them and them alone.

    Frankly, I think the standard is a little stringent.
     
  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think Gracie should start doing 3lo in her SP next season. It's worth more than a flip with an edge call and where it's not her most consistent jump, I think doing it in the SP would help her get it more consistent. She's capable of a gorgeous 3lo when she doesn't mess it up. So really, I think that would be a smart idea, instead of being a problem jump, it could become a money jump, when Gracie hits the 3lo properly it's a +1 or +2 GOE worthy jump.