U.S. Ladies [#7] Wagner's Rink Cycle

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vagabond, Feb 10, 2013.

  1. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    If all or enough of Kim, Asada, Kostner, Suzuki, Sot, Tuk, Murakami, Gold etc go clean in the short, Wagner might not even make the final flight with just a 3/2 in the short.

    HOWEVER

    Maththematically, a 3flip3toe gives her a boost in base value of around 2.7 from a 3flip2toe. But she usually gets +1s and some +2s on the 3/2 combo. If she goes for the 3/3 and 2foots / steps out / falls and worse yet gets an < call, she may actually be worse off than she were to land a clean and secure 3/2.
     
  2. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    ITA. But even if she's edged out of the final group, she should still be close to a top 5 position score wise. While it's best to skate in the final group, she ended up 4th from the penultimate group last year.

    I think she should do the 3-2 in the SP, and try for 2a3t in the LP.

    Regarding her 3l..2a series, it is barely worth more than a 3l2t. If she could do a 3l-tano 2t, she would probably break even.

    Someone suggested she should work on 2a1/2l3sal. That would be a great combo for her. Too bad 3l on the end of combos is so risky, as a 2a3loop would solve a lot of issues for her!
     
  3. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Exactly, that's why it's a risk in the first place. But she really needs to get into that final group if she wants the big FS scores. Not convinced she will make it with just a 3/2 (unless one or more of the above messes up, which is not likely). The SP is crucial, really...
     
  4. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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  5. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it's just me but did anyone else find the scores at Europeans at bit high/inflated? I know 4CCs is notorious for being that way, but those marks seemed less generous this year, and Europeans more. In order words, I could see Adelina having a clean SP at Worlds and scoring say a 64 instead of a 67, meaning a clean Ashley with a 3-2 might be able to beat her. Also Kanako was at 64 for getting all her jumps rotated...considering ALL her jumps in the SP are in the 2nd half and URs have a been an ongoing issue for awhile now, I would assume she's more likely destined for a score in the low 60s (like 60-63) for her SP at Worlds, and if more than one jump gets called or she has mistakes then lower than that. Tuk with a 3lz-3t, 3lo, and 2a tano in the SP should score high, potentially higher than Adelina with 3t-3t and 3f, but for whatever reason Tuk seems to be a lot more consistent with her jumps in the FS and less so in the SP, odd as that may seem.

    If Ashley can get 3f-3t< but otherwise landed cleanly or 3f-3t with full rotation but a slight two-foot, it might help her score a point or so, but any bigger issue than that and she's better of with the 3-2 IMO. Risk versus reward. She just needs to be in the hunt after the SP, skating in the final warmup should help her from a PCS standpoint in the FS, but skating in the penultimate group if she's a couple points behind the medalists is not a terrible position to be in. Ashley is a strong FS skater, what she needs to avoid is having a mess of a SP, which is why she may want to forego the 3f-3t because she has confidence she can nail the SP with a 3-2 through having done that all season.

    Further, doing a 3-2 in the SP, if it ends up putting her in the penultimate warm-up group, might make her MORE likely to try for 2a-3t in the FS because she won't have the luxury of knowing how others ahead of her have done, whereas if she's in the final flight and most of the ladies are making mistakes, she might just play it safe and try and pull out the clean skate. I feel like Ando used this strategy in 2010-2011 and it usually worked, she just did 2a-2t at her GPs and it was enough to win, then at GPF she was in last going into the FS so did the 2a-3t and she wound up winning the FS even though overall she was only 5th, she again went for 2a-3t at Nationals and 4CCs because she had to compete against Mao. But then at Worlds, Mao was sort of out of the picture after the SP, Yuna did not have a clean SP either, and Carolina wasn't trying much content, so Miki played it safe with 2a-2t and ended up being World Champ anyways.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  7. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    She may have BEEN a strong free skater...however, she's had four falls in her last two attempts. Whoops
     
  8. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    You are not alone
     
  9. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    You keep repeating this ad nauseum. I think we're all aware of what happened at the GPF and Nationals by now. Thankfully, Ashley has had some time to regroup now.
     
  10. morqet

    morqet Active Member

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    Looking at Adelina in particular, the difference in her score at Euros over Ashley's efforts this year all came in TES - and really mostly from the 3-3. At the GPF Ashley had everything called as level 4, same as Adelina at Europeans, so they both had a base value for non jump elements of 13.2. However, the 3-3 gives her a 1.6 lead over Ashley, and even though Ashley has 2 jumps getting the credit for being in the second half, she can't make that difference up. I didn't find her SP score over inflated at all - every element was sharp & clean, the program is really well put together and her speed & ice coverage is really noticable when you see her live. Same with Carolina. The only mark from Europeans that I would quibble with is Liza's free skate - it's all jumps & nothing else. There are really strong contenders from Europe, Japan and Canada all capable of producing short programs in the region of 62-67 points, and Gracie and Ashley are going to have very little room for error.
     
  11. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Any reports on Courtney Hicks planned jumps/combinations, etc. for Jr. World's? and thoughts on her chances of making the podium? I feel she is a very strong contender. Sorry if this is being discussed elsewhere.
     
  12. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ITA re: Adelina's scores.
    I'm not too much a fan of her FS but her SP is very strong and when she hits her jumps she deserves a high 60s score. She performs that program very well with lots of energy and fire and the rest of her skating from a presentation standpoint is top 5 material: great speed and coverage, nice deep edges, gorgeous lines, difficult spins and steps, plus the program (as well as her skating) leaves a really nice impression on the ice...she could definitely match Ashley if not beat her in the SP.
     
  13. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I'm guessing she'll stick with the same layout she's had all season.

    I think her chances are pretty decent of making the podium but I don't see anyone beating Elena Radionova right now. That kid has been on fire all season long and she's the fav to win. The judges like Courtney so if she can put down two solid performances she should have a good shot at 2nd or 3rd but she does have others to contend with like Anna Pogorilaya and Hannah Miller. She missed the JGPF so she's at a slight disadvantage (the other 3 all medaled) but like I said, two strong programs should put her back in the mix.
     
  14. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    The 3 U.S. ladies going to Junior Worlds are Hicks, Samantha Cesario, and Yasmin Siraj.

    Hicks was only doing 3Lo+2T combo in her SP on the JGP this past fall, so she will likely upgrade to at least 3Lz+2T and 3F (flip is required) in the SP.

    Cesario will likely stick with her 3Lo+2T in the SP and I'm guessing Siraj will go with 3Lz+2T or 3T+3T - whichever is more consistent for her.

    ETA: Elena Radionova, Julia Lipnitskaia, Anna Pogorilaya, Satoko Miyahara, Rika Hongo, Gabrielle Daleman and Alaine Chartrand look to be the main contenders from the other countries, plus Hae-Jin Kim, if she's healthy.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  15. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Oh yeah...I forgot Hannah didn't get the spot. :(

    Well in that case Courtney's chances are higher but she'd have to be clean to beat Anna (assuming she made mistakes) and I don't see her beating Elena. Both girls have more difficult jumps though Courtney does skate bigger. I don't think junior worlds will be as competitive as it's been in the last two years. For once, senior worlds is looking like the more interesting competition.
     
  16. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    What I'm really getting at here is let's not take it for granted that she will easily make up ground in the FS if she lacks a competitive SP.

    It probably won't be an easy decision for Team Wagner whether to go for the 3-3 or not, since a bad miss could possibly be worse than doing a clean 3-2. Yet a 3-2 likely won't be enough if all the others hit.

    As long as she gets into that final FS group she has a shot - IF she can hit.

    I'm more worried about Gold in the SP though than I am about Wagner.
     
  17. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Her track record this season though, even including those falls, is still better than someone like Gracie or Agnes, however, and those two don't have injuries or illness (at least not that they mentioned publicly) that likely attributed to weakened stamina/consistency like Ashley did at GPF and Nats.

    Ashley in the SP is really the least of my worries right now. Even Gracie in the SP I'm not that worried about because I think she is still likely to wind up in the penultimate warmup for the FS with mistakes in the SP so long as she doesn't completely tank, and even clean making the final flight after the SP might be tough for her. If you're going to say Ashley's track record in the FS isn't so good....what do you have to say about Gracie? :shuffle: Ashley's had a few falls but Gracie has had a number of falls, pops, stumbles, and turnouts across her competitive FS performances this season. It's encouraging she manages to score decently with all those mistakes but still, with the depth of this field, it's a concern, especially because she's so capable of brilliantly executing ALL the jumps in her FS as we saw at US Nats.
     
  18. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

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    Very refreshing yet strange to see to Canadian women listed in this paragraph. We've come a long way baby!
     
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  19. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Yes. And as your neighbor to the South, I'm also jealous of your success in pairs and men's singles right now.

    ----------------------------------

    I think a big concern for most US skating fans is that we don't for sure know what exactly happened to Ashley at the GPF and Nationals, and we can't make any presumptions or rational predictions on what she'll do at Worlds. This probably is further fraying the nerves of US skating fans, already frayed by years of frustration of waiting for a medal or even 3 spots. Nor can we predict what will happen in regards to Gracie. We won't know anything until they step on the ice in London, Ontario.

    :drama:
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2013
  20. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    If Gracie makes mistakes in the SP, she could very well end up between 13 & 16th place. It would all depend on how others due. As excited as USFSA is about her, she's learning to compete at this level and manage her nerves. If they haven't put all their political might behind Ashley, they are FOOLS.
     
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  21. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I was simply stating facts. Not really trying to suggest anything about her "track record".

    As for Gold I think I've said many times already - flip a (weighted) coin, heads, she'll do OK, tails, she'll completely tank (ala Czisny...not very reassuring now, is it?)
     
  22. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    What about So Youn Park? She's done well this year, but maybe I missed her not being on the JW roster?
     
  23. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    BTW, Kostner won the Challenge Cup, scored 198 pts. total.

    126 pts. in the LP - Clean 3z, but popped a couple of jumps and went for a 3f-3t and UR'd it. Excellent, but not overwhelming.
     
  24. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    She's on the roster I thought
     
  25. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well there's also the chance she pulls another blinder like in her US Nats FS. Gracie is like a 3 sided coin - mind boggling jumping clinic, good/ok, meltdown. Usually it's somewhere in the middle though and considering the strength of her jumps, she can rack up a lot of TES points just by hitting a few of her planned jumping passes in her FS well. I was more just saying, even with the falls, Ashley is still one of the more consistent freeskaters among US senior ladies currently, and she actually has been for a number of years now. Even before she was a really a top gun in the US and internationally, she usually skated strong FS programs on the GP and Nationals and such. Not saying lights out perfect every time, but usually pretty decent - not a lot of falls or pops.
     
  26. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Even if Gold skated her best I dont think she could do anymore than contribute strongly to the U.S regaining 3 spots. Her LP at Nationals which is the best she is capable of at this time would only score mid 120s probably in front of an international panel. There are some women at Worlds who will probably be scoring 140 range or higher in the LP. Then several women capable of scoring in the 70s in the SP as well. Wagner has more shot of a medal but would need some help, as well as recapturing her early season form.
     
  27. Sylvia

    Sylvia Bring on the JGP & Sr B comps!

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    No insult was intended to Park ;) - she's the only non-USA JGP ladies' medalist from this season competing at Jr. Worlds that I failed to mention yesterday:
    Gold - Radionova (3, incl. at Final), Pogorilaya, Miyahara, Kim
    Silver - Hicks, Hongo, Park
    Bronze - Pogorilaya (2, incl. at Final), Miyahara, Cesario
    (I'll cross-post this list later in the Jr. Worlds forum in Kiss and Cry.)

    BTW, Agnes Zawadzki is performing in the annual "Rondy on Ice" shows in Anchorage, Alaska this weekend.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2013
  28. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Mid 120s is nothing to sneeze at for a first year Senior who has lots to improve on. With just a little more improvement to her her overall skating she will be a threat to the top Ladies and Wagner might find her reign as top US Lady over very quickly.
     
  29. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Mid 120s is nothing to sneeze at for a first year Senior who has lots to improve on. With just a little more improvement to her overall skating she will be a threat to the top Ladies and Wagner might find her reign as top US Lady over very quickly.
     
  30. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    This. And just because skaters like Kim, Kostner, Asada have the POTENTIAL to score in the 140s for the FS, doesn't mean they actually will. Mao broke 130 for the first time this season at 4CC just a couple weeks ago, and that was with a very good skate where she attempted :eek: content. Yuna's NRW FS likely would score in the mid-high 120s at Worlds, but the scores at that event were pretty generous so she broke 130s. Like I said, Euros scores seemed high so there's a chance at Worlds that both Tuk and Kostner's FS programs from Euros would be in the high 120s if judged under a different panel. If Gracie skates clean in the FS I expect her to score and place VERY WELL relative to the field. Sure, it could mean 6th in that segment if all the contenders kill the FS, but it could also mean like 2nd if mistakes from others slip in here and there.