Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Nov 25, 2012.
Only if she can get herself together in the free skate...
Last year her LP only managed 7th place, but she still walked away with a medal, yeah this year's field seems to be deeper than last years, but Agnes can deliver a pretty good SP, at this point I could easily see her in 3rd or 6th.
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It doesn't work for me, either
I'm a big fan of Mirai. Her potentioal is one of the bests ever IMO. Being with a good coaching team hopefully she'll put all together at US Nats.
I'm really hoping Agnes isn't held up again this year like last year. I have no clue what the U.S. Nationals judges are thinking. I really wonder sometimes if they even watch figure skating. They hold up all the wrong skaters. Agnes can't hold it together in the LP in a Nationals Championships, let alone a GP, so I really hope that she doesn't get anywhere near the top 2. Imgaine what would happen to her in a pressure packed worlds.
Huh? Her short program last year at nationals clearly deserved first place! Who was better?
If anyone was "held up" it was Czisny, but don't get me started!
^I think between Ashley, Mirai and Gracie at Nationals, odds are 2 of the 3 will deliver at least enough to be on the team. Agnes will only be on the team if she shows she can skate an LP well executed w/ attack and confidence which is how it should be.
Gracie is due to skate a clean LP and if she does i don't see her lower then 2nd unless she totally bombs her SP.
I'll bet she'd do better than 22nd at least.
Do either of you have the required Adobe Flash plug-in installed? ETA: Are you both outside the U.S.?
I guess Ashley Wagner has really made it if the Daily Mail in the U.K. has given her a photo spread based on her recent Pandora jewelry press release!
Reader comment at bottom:
Me too. Every year at Nationals Agnes improves. In 2011 she was 4th and in 2012 she was 3rd. I wouldn't be surprised if at the upcoming National Championship she placed 2nd.
Her SP was great, but Agnes' LP did not deserved the 59+ or what ever it got for PCS.
Does anyone have an opinion of how high Gracie might score in the LP if she skates it clean? Would she be in the 127 - 129 pt. category? Just curious ...
I think she'll skate better than last year, and earn more points, but finish 4th.
I think Wagner might skip 4cc - just a hunch - to stay home and work on her 3-3. (When has staying home to work on something ever worked?) 4cc team for the US ladies will be Gracie, Mirai and Agnes.
I think Gracie could definitely obtain a score in that range with a perfect, 7 triple program.
With 4CC in Japan this year, we may see more US World Team Members opting out of 4CC than we would if it were in North America.
At Nationals, yes. Internationally, probably more 125ish for a clean program with 7 triples, and maybe 120 if she's clean but only ends up doing 6 triples. Internationally her PCS are like mid-high 20s for SP and mid-high 50s for FS, so at Nationals that likely means with good skates she'll be 30+ for SP and 60+ for FS. Of course Ashley has gotten PCS marks much higher than that even internationally this season so she's probably heavy edge to beat Gracie even with their respective planned content, but Gracie's PCS should be among the highest after Ashley, my guess is Gold, Gao, Nagasu, Zawadzki, and Czisny because she's a question mark right now, will receive similar PCS at Nats if they skate well, and that these marks will be significantly below a well-skating Ashley, but not so much that Ashley can tank and still win. Maybe like 2-3 points in SP and 4-6 in FS.
I was fooling around with numbers today (bored). I think the LP scoring potential at Nationals as of today if everyone is clean would be -
Wagner and Gold - 130 pts.
Nagasu - mid 120's
Gao and Czisny - low 120's
Zawadzki - mid 110's
Wang, Zhang and Miller - low 110's
Keep in mind Wang and Miller scored 110 and 109 for their respective FS at the JGPF, they both skated clean, but junior programs are 30 seconds shorter and have no spiral sequence, meaning that's more like 115 for a senior program, and that's disregarding any Nationals PCS inflation they may receive (not to mention PCS for juniors are usually lower anyways). So I think low 110s for those two is a low estimate. I'd guess, for clean programs, approximate FS scores would be:
Wagner - 135
Gold - 130
Gao and Nagasu - 125
Zawadzki and Czisny - 120
Wang, Miller, Cesario - 115-120
Zhang, Lam, Siraj, Keiser - 110-115
Then for clean SPs
70: maybe Wagner if she pulls off a good 3f-3t
65+: Wagner (with 3-2 or 3-3), Gold (with 3f-3t and solo 3lz), Zawadzki (with 3t-3t and solo 3lz)
60-65: Gao (with 3t-3t), Nagasu (with 3t-3t)
60ish: Wang (with 3lz-3t), Cesario (with 3lo-3lo), Zhang (with 3lo-3lo), Miller (with 3lo-2lo - going off of JGPF score), Keiser (with 3lz-3t if the judges really go for her), Siraj (if she hits the 3t-3t as that program is so lovely), Dunne (with 3t-3t, she came close to 60 at sectionals)
I notice that you have Gao kind of high - comparing the SP scores from the Fall, Gao was squeaky clean in her SP at SA w/ a 3-3 but only scored 56+ pts. Whereas Nagasu competing abroad in JPN scored 61+ pts. w/ a wonky 2d 3t on her 3-3. Also, they were similarly scored in the LP - Gao squeaky clean at SA w/ 117 pts. and Nagasu w/ some UR's abroad in JPN had 115+ pts. Makes me think Nagasu would have an advantage...once she tightens up her jumps a bit.
But I agree that Wang and Miller would have potential to be in the mid 110's. I forgot about their JGPF scores while posting.
Two things regarding Christina and Mirai.
1.) Mirai historically has not gotten a lot of nationals inflation from US judges or much benefit of the doubt at Nationals for some time now, and even when she made the Olympic team and skated out of her skin, she still got hammered with URs and her scores weren't all that high. This is why I placed her in the score ranges I did, because I expect others to get more inflation in PCS and more leniency regarding the rotation of jumps than she will. Doesn't mean it will happen, just going off the patterns set by the past few years at Nationals.
2.) Christina at Skate America was coming off a 7th place finish at JW, a lackluster season in general that included 5th (with just okay skates) and 10th (with two nightmarish skates) at her GPs, then at Nationals she did well to place 5th, but she was a distant 5th and her score was not all that high. Plus she had vocalized the possibility of retiring after last season - in other words she was not in high stead going into SA, I don't think anyone was expecting much from her there, and then she had to skate 2nd in the SP after Rachael had set the score bar very low. Her scores there, IMO, were a bit lowballed for how she skated, I think simply because no one expected her to skate that well. But then she skated well at TEB and made the GPF and had a respectable showing there even though she did finish 6th, so I think Christina's stock has risen significantly since SA, and I expect her marks to be a bit more generous because of it.
Further, Christina historically skates pretty well at Nationals and gets decent inflation. Remember, back in 2011 with that very ugly 2a she scored nearly 60 points for her SP, granted she did 3f-3t, but still, she's improved a lot since then and her score would have likely been 60+ had she gone clean then, so now, I think low 60s is definitely possible if she hits the 3t-3t and is otherwise clean. Then in the FS, if she tries her 3f-3t again, which we know she is capable of even though it wasn't great at the GPF, she'll be going for a 7 triple program, and her jumps are nice, apart from the lutz the jumps should get decent +GOE, and she's also cleaned up her spins as well. Christina also has that new, fresh, exciting thing going for her which Mirai does not, so I tend to think, with the fall international season she's had, if she delivers, she'll be rewarded. I still think a clean Ashley and Gracie would definitely beat her, but I'm not sure about anyone else.
Also notice I did put Agnes in the higher scoring group for the SP - because I think she can beat a clean Christina, and Mirai, with a clean SP, I just have doubts about the FS. Sort of the same thing for Mirai, at Finlandia she was strong and got 110 for her FS, then she skated decently but with a lot of URs at CoC and scored 103, at NHK she skated what seemed to be a flawless program and only scored 115, so based on this and Christina's 117, 112, and 106 for international FS scores this season, I tend to think their FS scoring potential is similar. Then for the SP, they have the same planned content, and Christina's short, IMO, is gorgeous, while Mirai's is good but not great and a bit lacking in transitions for me, so I tend to think their marks for that should be pretty much the same should they both skate clean.
Nagasu has never been a big favorite of the U.S judges, perhaps she isnt a big favorite of the USFSA, I am not sure. She has never been given any gifts at Nationals, that is for sure. Scott Hamilton proclaimed her the Champion after her skate at the 2010 Nationals, and instead she gets hammered on URs and barely makes the Olympic team, only making it since Ashley fell in the short. In 2011 many thought she should have finished 2nd and made the team, and instead Flatt beats her by about 7 points with a similarily mediocre effort. I think some of the suggestions for her in this thread are overgenerous. Forget any idea of her beating a clean or even close to clean Ashley at this point at Nationals, never going to happen right now no matter how well Nagasu skates. I also agree Gold will beat Nagasu if both skate well, I actually expect their PCS at Nationals would be virtually the same, and Nagasu can do nothing to hold back a good Gold on TES. Pinky could be right that a clean Gao and clean Nagasu would score about the same at Nationals right now.
As it is I doubt they see Nagasu as one of their great future hopes at this point, nor is she their best current hope, so having never been a favorite of U.S judges at Nationals, even when she looked like the most promising skater, she will have to skate brilliantly to make the team.
^ I think Mirai will still beat Gao if both skate clean. Sure, Mirai hasn't received any gits from the judges within the past couple years at Nationals, but she is still better than a clean Gao no matter how much Gao has improved this season. Mirai should have a slight PCS advantage.
True, if Wagner skates like she has on the GP, she'll be tough to beat, perhaps even the class of the field. But then again, that's assuming the others don't make any improvements at all.
But, if Wagner is NOT clean, the door opens, however slightly. If she has a GPF-type skate or worse, she is definitely beatable by Nagasu (if clean), Gold, perhaps even Zawadzki.
^ I honestly don't have a stake in US ladies. There isn't one particular skater on the US scene that makes me right now to the point that I would secretly root against them. I was even a fan of Flatt and EoE. LOL
I'm more interested in everyone performing to the best of their ability and letting the chips fall where they may. Admittedly, this makes me bet on a US team consisting of Ashley-Gracie.
But, IDK, it seems that Mirai has a mini-comeback story brewing that the USFSA might recognize should she make the team and perform well the rest of the year. By mini-comeback, I'm talking about a visible change in attitude, maturity and a sense of attack that, frankly, I have NEVER seen from her before which the judges might respect and give her top-of-the-heap PCS marks / GOE marks (of course, as long as she nails it). Still, I think that if Gracie hits her monster combos and does a Rippon Lutz, game over. Yet, the chances of all that happening are at best 50-50.
I like Gao well enough, but she's been tanking in the SP lately. Not a given that she can beat Mirai. Plus, she has the daunting task that continues beyond Nationals of balancing Harvard and elite skating. Again, I have no dog in the hunt, so I hope she manages it all but she's got a rough road ahead and many distractions. The USFSA will notice that odds are she won't be able to juggle it forever.
Believe me, Mirai has a clear shot at a team slot (I'm NOT talking about winning it here, just getting there). I doubt anyone can beat Ashley unless she melts down. After half-a-dozen years, the USFSA has their lady in waiting. No one will mess with that!
Ashley is one graduate of the US ladies class of '08 who has achieved Ivy League. The rest of the US ladies class of '08, who a few seasons back showed so much promise by sweeping Jr. Worlds, have not achieved Ivy League status. Most of them have ended up in the Trailer park.
I wouldn't mind seeing Wagner successfully defend her title just for the sake of seeing a US lady successfully defend her title. Other than that, I have no really strong feelings about who ends up on the podium - it can be any combination of Nagasu, Gao, Gold, Zawadzski. Zhang seems to have regressed again and Czisny is a complete wild card.
The world isn't over for Mirai if she doesn't go to worlds. If she skates great at Nationals and is edged by Gold for the 2nd spot, she should still be on the 4cc team. She can go to Japan and if she has another great skate there, she sets herself up as well as can be expected for the Olympic season.
If Ashley and Gracie can get 3 spots for next year, it will be very competitive for that 3rd spot! I'm sure USFSA would rather one of the emerging juniors gets it, but I'd love to see it go to Mirai.
What does Mirai have to do to get 2 GP slots next year?
Are you referring to Nagasu, Flatt, and Zhang as the other class of 2008 graduates? If so, your Ivy League-Trailer Park comparison is a bit unfair. While none of the 4 have exactly set the skating world on fire since 2008, I would say their achievements so far are on equal ground. Okay well, Zhang is obviously a rung lower than the other girls but Nagasu and Flatt both had top 10 placements at Worlds and Olympics. Wagner is the current USFS darling, but unless she medals at Worlds this year then she's still on par with Nagasu and Flatt career achievement-wise.
However - I wouldn't put Wagner in "Ivy League" status until she is World champion and/or Olympic medalist. A lack of those major titles/medals puts her basically on near-equal footing with the rest of the 2008ers, IMO. Nagasu and Flatt have already been to the Olympics; Wagner hasn't. To Wagner's credit, she's got a GPF medal and 4CC title, stuff Nagasu nor Flatt have.
^My lame attempt at biting humor, guys.
Maybe slight PCS advantage, I'll give you that, but although Mirai's spins are better than Gao, Gao's jumps are better, she'll pick up more GOE there than Nagasu will, which is why I have them about even, Mirai maybe gets a couple PCS points more than Christina and Christina maybe gets a couple GOE points more than Mirai on her jumps. It's hard to tell if either girl will get edge calls at Nats anyways, even if they do, Christina only has one 3lz btwn her 2 programs, Mirai has a lutz and 2 flips in her FS, so that's 3 potential edge calls vs. Christina's max of 1. And then otherwise Christina's jumps, especially at Nats, should be good for +1s and +2s if up to her usual standard, whereas Mirai more like 0s and maybe some +1s, and then if she URs she'll get minuses most likely. Plus I'm not even convinced at Nationals there will be much if any PCS gap btwn the two because Mirai usually gets no inflation and Christina gets the standard, and internationally their PCS aren't even that far apart now anyways.
Idk. I like Mirai, I just think I'd be more hopeful of her prospects if NHK hadn't turned out the way it had. The international judges have made it pretty clear this season that they equate Ashley as roughly equal to Mao, and Mirai skating what appeared to be a flawless FS did not even manage to beat Mao in that segment of the event despite Mao's mess of a FS there. I know 2 of Mirai's triples were downgraded, and also 2 doubles, but still...it seemed a bit like the judges were sending her a message - not the go home message, but more that she's not in the same league as Mao, at least not right now, whereas they've given Ashley the message that she IS in the same league as Mao.
In any event, I think I just see Christina skating clean as more feasible than Mirai at this point, I expect she'll have some URs and/or botch a spin or two even though she seems to be avoiding big errors this season, which is why I think it should be close between them. Of course, I think the SP can really make or break Christina, because if she messes that up I don't expect her PCS to be great and she could have trouble even making the top 5. But her strong fall season will help her IF she can set herself up well by skating a clean SP, I tend to think, especially regarding PCS in the FS (and SP too). Christina's marks I see as more variable than Mirai's, which is why I score CLEAN Christina so high, add in some mistakes and I think her numbers could drop quite a bit. Agnes is sort of in the same boat, IMO.
Mirai has continually improved since August. I think she'll show up to Nationals well prepared and ready to contend. As of now, I think she'll be top 3 at the very least. Gao, on the other hand, has regressed both score and performance-wise since Skate America.
I have this feeling about Nagasu - I'm just not willing to count her out at this point. But she WILL need to show up and take names if she wants to be on the world team, even more so if she is to win (perhaps even requiring mistakes from Wagner and/or Gold).
As for Gold, she is also on an upward trend, but she is still somewhat untested under the big spotlight. One thing is clear though- she's showing growth and that's a positive sign. I don't know if she is going to become the "star" everyone wants her to be overnight- it may take some time for that to happen (or it may not happen at all)- but I think she'll do well for herself. I think she'll be on the podium somewhere- anywhere from 1st to 4th.
For Wagner, the challenge will be to rise once again after GPF in defense of her title. For Gao, it will be to replicate her SA brilliance, as she will need that kind of performance for any hope of the World team.
I just had to share this!
Yesterday, totally out of the blue, on the very last day of the year 2012 I received the following from one of my faves, Miss Rachael Flatt:
At this past year's Skate America I had thrown her a humongous bright blue chihuahua with card attached, as she made me cry with her eloquent soul-baring "Firebird" routine. And like the ancient proverbial firebird of old, Rach will rise again from the ashes. I wouldn't count her out on becoming a two-time Olympian.
That's so cool! Way to go, Rachael!
I don't think it's fair to compare Mirai to Mao. Given the way NHK was judged even if Mirai had been flawless (no edge calls, no URs) she still would have lost. Mao was gifted at NHK and everyone knows it; Akiko should have won that competition. Still, Mirai did the best she could hope to do in that competition by finishing 3rd. I didn't expect her to beat Akiko and I definitely didn't expect her to beat Mao.
Even though the outcome was bogus, I think it's fair to say that Mirai is not in Mao's league. They both have similar jump issues, both have lovely spins though I'd give the slight edge to Mirai purely b/c of her layback...other than that, Mao has her soundly beat everywhere else. I think Mirai could compete with Mao but it would take an Ashley Wagner-like turn around for the judges to begin to view Mirai in the same light as Mao. Ashley's consistency and confidence along with her lovely programs and improved presentation is what has her at the top right now. If Mirai could get some better choreography, gain consistency and project that charisma and personality that she had back in 2010 along with the confidence to go out there and sell herself to the crowd, I think she would move up the ranks and could be counted on the same tier as Mao and now Ashley. As of right now, she's a 2nd to 3rd tier skater...she has to make the necessary adjustments to separate herself from the pack and be a consistent threat. As always, she's got the goods to do it...
But ITA about Ashley being on par with Mao, which is a really big deal as of right now. They are each 1-1 with each other as far as head-to-head match ups this season with Ashley beating Mao at Japan Open and then Mao beating Ashley at the GPF. Though you could say Ashley is 2-1 if you count her 4CC victory at the end of last season. I really would have liked to see what would have happened if Ashley had skated her LP well at the GPF. If she turned in a performance like at TEB (virtually flawless) I really wonder who would have won and how close it would have been...
Honestly I still see Wagner a bit below Asada, Kostner, and quite a bit below Kim. I do think there is a good chance she will sneak in for a medal at Worlds (unless somehow she loses Nationals, in which case it is game over as far as a World medal this year for any U.S lady), but only because I have a feeling she will skate a consistent competion and capatilize on a meltdown from one of Asada or Kostner.
I agree with Wagner vs the rest. If both skated well with similar content I think she would still be 10 points behind in the overall score with Asada and Kostner and 15 points behind Kim (SP+LP).
^^I agree. Ashley's not above either right now but she's that skater who is capable of capitalizing on a mistake by any of the aforementioned ladies. Ashley's shot at gold this year is an outside shot at best BUT I honestly believe if it comes down to it and she skates lights out and the others make mistakes, the judges will reward her. I liken it to worlds in 2011 with the Miki vs Yu-Na situation. Miki won that gold b/c she'd been skating lights out all season and then delivered cleanly at worlds to boot. Yu-Na had been gone, was rusty and made several mistakes. Overall Yu-Na was the better skater but the judges rewarded Miki for what she did and I was actually okay with that...
I can totally see the same thing happening for Ashley this year. She's had one bad performance over the last year but otherwise has delivered well every other time. The momentum is in Ashley's favor right now. Everyone knows Mao (despite her results) has been struggling this season; Carolina has been out all season; Yu-Na's been out for almost two years. If Ashley delivers like she's been doing, I could see her winning worlds this year...the downside is others would have to make mistakes in order for it to happen. I seriously doubt Mao, Carolina and Yu-Na will all deliver magnificently (that rarely happens), so as long as Ashley does what she needs to do, she'll be able to sneak in there and snag one of those medals.
1. Miki "overrated" Ando is one of the most overmarked skaters of all time and a huge judges pet and has gotten many scores, medals, and titles she did not deserve, and I would include the 2011 Worlds in that IMHO considering she and Kim had almost comparable mistakes and Kim is twice the skater Ando is, even her jumps are better quality which is Ando's only asset really. Wagner is not the judges pet Ando was, and probably never will be. The judges like and respect her now unlike before, but unlike judges pets such as Ando, Chan, and others she has to earn every mark she gets still, especialy at the World level.
2. The biggest difference of all, Miki had only one person she needed to falter to win the 2011 Worlds, Kim, she was clearly above everyone else. Needing 1 person to falter to win is drastically different to needing 3. Even a clean Suzuki might be a threat to Wagner as well. I see the odds of none of those 3 skating very well close to nil, which is why I am hard pressed to see her winning this year, although not totally impossible, but I agree with you that a medal is quite a strong possability as it is unlikely all 3 of those would skate well.
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