U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Nov 25, 2012.

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  1. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Apart from Leah, who was by no means put out an embarrassing skate, the junior ladies FS was one heck of a well-skated event. 5 clean/nearly clean performances in a row, most of them with 7 triples, 4 of them with 3lz-3ts! I was very impressed. Idk if Miyahara and Miller's jumps will survive growing, but the other girls all had fab technique, Radinova has such an expressive face, Angela has lovely arm movements, and Pogorilaya is fierce and just so striking. It was great to see.
  2. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    I was so happy that Ashley kept going and did another triple after that horrible fall. She's a fighter, and glad she was not gravely wounded.

    I don't think she would have beat Mao even landing the jumps she fell on? Does anyone know?
  3. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    It's hard to say, but I think she would have scored very similarly with a clean program, Mao would probably have edged her with her slight lead and a slight lead in PCS. If ever there was an incentive for Ashley to up her technical content, it should be Mao's successful 2a/3t and Yuna's scores at NRW...
  4. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

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    That was a nasty fall. It's something you expect to see on a skater learning the 2A but not from a seasoned pro. Maybe she was tired and lost focus for that brief few seconds on the take-off.
  5. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    This...
  6. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    I dunno, bronze medal at Worlds and the Olympics wouldn't be half bad...
  7. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    I get the feeling Wagner is not the type to settle for a "smooth trip to" bronze though. She wants that Gold and will do whatever is within her limits to get it.
  8. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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  9. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    Hmmm I noticed that when Ashley's nervous or whatnot she has problems with the 3salchow. She popped it last year at Nationals during the FS, and here at the GPF she fell on it. However, her $$$ jump without a doubt is the 3loop, she can do it in her sleep, similar to how Zhenya owns the 3axel. It's so easy for her that she even does it with a spreadeagle beforehand, as well as running three turns. As for the 2A, doing it in combination with a triple seems to be a challenge for Ashley, especially when done during the second half of her FS, perhaps she needs to place it in the first half, as she has more success on it when she does. Course she'll lose that extra bonus, but it's better to land it successfully than not. Just a thought... :)
  10. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

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    Remember Irina's 3lp and MK's 3f? Each was considered $$$ jump for those skaters, respectively.
  11. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    Then there's Zhenya and his $$$ jump the 3axel, which has never failed him (knock on wood). I prefer to think of Ashley's 3loop in this regard. ;)

    Btw, I'll never forget Zhenya and the 3axel at the 2010 Olympics, right in front of me, the whole crowd hushed as we thought when he was so high up & tilted in the air he was sure to fall, but then God righted him and he landed like a cat. The audience, the moment, the skater, everything gelled, truly a magical night. :hat1:
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    I've added the ISU Season Best score rankings post-GPF/JGPF for the 2013 Nationals ladies - 8 in the current top 22!

    1. Ashley WAGNER (190.63), Trophee Eric Bompard #2
    2. Mirai NAGASU (176.88), NHK Trophy #8
    3. Gracie GOLD (175.03), Rostelecom Cup #10
    4. Christina GAO (174.25), Skate America #11
    5. Agnes ZAWADZKI (172.95), U.S. Classic; 166.61 at Rostelecom Cup #17
    6. Hannah MILLER (168.41), JGP Final #14
    7. Angela WANG (162.65), JGP Zagreb #18
    8. Samantha CESARIO (157.72), JGP Linz #22

    9. Leah KEISER (156.33), JGP Istanbul #26
    10. Courtney HICKS (153.77), JGP Lake Placid #27
    11. Caroline ZHANG (149.87), Skate Canada #31
    12. Barbie LONG (147.19), JGP Bled #34 [JUNIOR at U.S. Nationals]
    13. Kiri BAGA (142.22), JGP Lake Placid #42
    14. Vanessa LAM (140.89), JGP Courchevel #43
    15. Ashley CAIN (136.51), JGP Courchevel #48

    Remaining 2013 Nationals Senior ladies that qualified via Sectionals (listed alphabetically):
    Sophia Adams, Morgan Bell, Becky Bereswill, Haley Dunne, Joelle Forte, Amanda Hofmann, Yasmin Siraj.
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2012
  13. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it is settling, just smart. It is doing what you can do great. If Ashley whips out two triple triple combo which is what she needs I would be shocked. Joannie did what she could and was rewarded for it.
  14. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Wagner is capable of the 3-3 in the SP and 2A/3T in the FS - she does not currently do them.

    As for TWO 3-3s I think that is unlikely.
  15. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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  16. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Honest question here, has she ever done either of those cleanly in the same competition? 4CC maybe? I don't remember. If she can do the same 3/3 in the LP with the axel combo at least she would have a fighting chance against a cleanish skate by either of the top two.

    I am actually super excited for Nationals. Gold, Nagasu, Wagner, Gao... the list goes on. I just hope the judging is fair and consistent.
  17. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Good luck with the fair and consistent judging!

    Also, unfortunately, I think the top-placed skaters will end up being the ones that just don't happen to be injured on that particular day, not necessarily the best skaters. (Last skater standing situation)
  18. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    She hit the 3f/3t in the sp last season at 4CC and the post-worlds Japanese competition and the 2010 CoR, but all had two-footed landings.
    The only time I've seen her hit 2a/3t without a two-footed landing was at the 2010 CoR.
  19. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    How can a triple flip be a money jump for you when it failed you at the most important event of your life? :p
  20. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the 3f was Michelle's most consistent triple, moreso than the loop, but she certainly was more consistent with her lutz and toe for example.

    When Irina fell on that loop in Turino my mouth dropped open for about ten full minutes. After watching her (erroneously) perform 3 triple loops at Worlds the year before it was just so shocking...
  21. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    I never thought MK's triple flip was a money jump. That would have been the lutz which she would always land at least two every competition. The triple flip was just a very nice looking jump when she completed it. I remember something about an sports analysis being done about her technique (her knee or something?) on the flip jump and it was "textbook" good, but it still doesn't mean she couldn't flub it under pressure.
  22. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    When talking about MK compared to any other skater, you could probably call all her triples "Money Jumps" lol. But seriously it was her Lutz and Toe which could be considered as such. Loop was the jump she struggled with, flip was consistent but sometimes gave her trouble. Her axel was never fantastic later in her career but she got it done.

    Ashley landed a beautiful 2Axel+3T in the 4CC practice last year, it's on Youtube (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhQUUI7xnLU). I watched a stream of the sp warmup at worlds last year and she did a beautiful 3F+3T (no 2ft.). IIRC she also landed it in the warmup at 4CC and WTT (one of which was two footed, can't remember which). Wishing my memory was better.

    Ashley has said that she hates 3S with a passion, I can't remember which interview but it's been posted here. She's had trouble with it all season, the technique isn't so solid anymore. I watched the LP warmup at GPF and she did a beautiful one (better than all of those this season) at least.
  23. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^ So, I guess Ashley left her beautiful Salchow landing in the warm-up then. As has been said, hope this will just be further fuel for her to get stronger under pressure.
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2012
  24. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    Maybe Ashley should start working on 3loop 1 loop 2flip with hopes of making it a 3loop - 3 flip series?

    She gets 7.39 for doing the 3loop2a in bonus time.
    She would get 8.14 for doing 3loop1loop2f in bonus time, but then lose 1.3 because her first jumping pass would only have 2 jumps.

    So she'd lose 0.55 overall, but have a chance - ultimately - at a very impressive and realistic 3-3 series, imo. If she could come up with an additional L3 or L4 flying combo spin, and replace her layback with that, she could earn most or all of that back.
  25. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    That could work. But shouldn't she be working on a 3Lo+1/2Lo+3F instead? It's all good, though.

    As for bronze...IMHO, Ashley wants the gold really, really badly, but she'd still be thrilled to be on an Olympic or World podium (the first US lady since 2006--that's something huge right there!).
  26. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    As others have said, Ashley strikes me as someone who will be happy with no less than gold. Refreshing amongst a string of American ladies who wouldn't fight for a spot at the top. That's my opinion anyways.
  27. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    IDK why people would want Wagner to change the 3l -seq- 2x. She's fine. She screwed it up once. I think she should keep it.

    I think she should move forward with what is probably her plan: Build towards adding the 2x-3t in the LP and 3f-3t in the SP. She might have an 'out' for the LP at least if the 2x-3t isn't solid by next spring - do a 3t -seq- 2x series. Wouldn't it be the same points but a safer jump combo. She's going to need every tenth to compete w/ Mao and Yu Na, and probably Carolina

    Also, curious about something: Would a clean 3t be a bigger point getter than a 3flutz? If the 3t combo never materializes in the combo, can she do a solo 3toe w/ good GOE where the lutz is in her LP and get more points?? Or is it a wash?
  28. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    I was suggesting she start with 3loop1loop2f, and work up to 3loop1loop3flip.

    Series get an 20% deduction, that's why I think she should change her 3loop2a :)

    A clean 3toe would only outscore a flutz if she put some major bells and whistles on it, I think.
  29. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I was just speculating about a 3flutz w/ negative GOE and a 3toe w/ positive GOE. What is the point spread between a 3toe and a 3z anyway? 2 pts. base value? I believe it was that much last quadrennial, but not sure now. If so, she'd need GOE around +1.5 to break even
  30. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    Funny you should mention MK's triple flip, which was almost always very good. Check it out in her Spartacus program at 2005 Nationals--it was getting even better at the end of her competitive career. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EoeO239UX4 (at around 1:22)
    But the irony is that the triple flip was her nemesis at the Olympics. In 1998, it was a tad shaky in the LP (she didn't do it in the short)--no big deal but it was an omen of things to come. In 2002, she slipped off the edge (but completed the jump) in the SP and, of course, fell on the 3F in the long, costing her the gold medal (IMO).
  31. B.Cooper

    B.Cooper New Member

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    I have to disagree. Nagasu and Flatt skated terrific programs at 2010 Nationals and 2010 Olympics. The competition was much tougher back then. More women were consistently doing (more difficult) 3-3 combos in both the SP and LP, including the American girls (and they were girls in 2010. Nagasu was 16, Flatt was 17 IIRC). And, many of the top women would do at least 4 of the 5 triples, with Mao going for 3A. It wasn't that these girls weren't fighting for a top spot....just a different set of circumstances. The last flight of ladies in the LP at 2010 Olympics was some of the best skating, IMHO, in years. Very few errors, and they all brought their "A" game. I think Nagasu and Flatt knew that they were fighting for bronze. Wagner doesn't have quite the competition that these girls had in 2010.
  32. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^^ I think Nagasu had more talent and potential to challenge for a medal in 2010 (Olympics and Worlds) than did or ever would Rachael Flatt. I think Flatt was more of a top ten competitor internationally at best, while Nagasu had the talent and total package to win it all or be consistently in the top five. Something went wrong along the way for Mirai and she's trying to battle back.

    In essence, I also feel there's no doubt that Ashley has more grit, fire, fight and toughness than we've seen in recent years among U.S. ladies. If she didn't, Ashley wouldn't be where she is now, much less would Nicks have taken her under his wing in the first place.
  33. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    I wasn't referring to someone crumbling under pressure or anything, or putting out sub-par performances. I just get the feeling from the two aforementioned skaters, that at one time or another they just weren't fighting to improve themselves and bring themselves to the top. I obviously cannot know their mindset or training habits but that's just the impression I got.

    As aftershocks said, I just feel Ashley has more grit, fire and fight. Again, just a personal impression. Although I am getting more of that from Nagasu this season here and there.
  34. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    As regards another favorite of mine, Rachael Flatt, she too is a fighter/a champion! She used to consistently put out one clean program after another, loaded with literally tons of charm, charisma, emotion. She's the only ONE at 2012 Skate America that made me cry. She really is that good in person. I've seen her skate live now twice (2010 SA & 2012 SA) and she's something else. I still say she should have won 2010 Skate America, but the international judges don't like her. :( And now since her injury her stock has fallen at home domestically as well. C'est la vie...

    Furthermore, Rachael had a true "lutz" as well, but what really held her back were the spins because of the precariousness of her back injury she was never able to do difficult spins, and alas I really think she needed to lose a few pounds/get ripped like Sasha Cohen at the 2010 Nationals. Even the mens 1994 Olympic Champion called her fat. :( I wouldn't go that far :mad: , but I always wanted Rachael to follow Joannie Rochette's example.

    With all that being said, Rachael can hold her head high, even if she never accomplishes anything else in figure skating, she can leave knowing she did her best ~ 2008 Jr. World Champion, 2010 Sr. National Champion, 2010 Olympian. :hat1:

    ps: I don't think it's over by a long shot, I think she'll come back better than ever, just wait & see...
  35. RockTheTassel

    RockTheTassel Well-Known Member

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    Despite some recent shortcomings, Rachael does have a lot to be proud of, and I would definitely consider her a fighter. Honestly, I have a lot of respect for all of the skaters discussed in this thread. They all have to have a certain amount of gumption to make it as far as they have.
  36. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone have an opinion on where Gao stands post-GPF? Helped or Hindered her quest for a team berth? No change?

    I think she left things kind of murky: Overall, it wasn't a great outing and her point total was significantly lower than those at her other GP assignments, but OTOH, she showed she's getting a 3f-3t ready and she has like 6 weeks to train it for Nats.

    I still think Gold and Nagasu are the 2 chief contenders for that 2nd spot, though.

    BTW, sounding like a broken record, but any news on Czisny? I'd be willing to settle for rumors at this point ...
  37. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ I know many people think Christina has a chance at the World team this season, but I'm not 100% sold yet. She has made some significant improvements, but I'm not sure she'll be able to keep it up by the time nationals comes.
  38. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    ^ I don't think Christina had enough time to prepare for GPF, so it wasn't really necessarily an advantage, although it looks good on her overall resume to have made it there. Her only hope to come out even or to have a slight edge at Nats was likely to just skate clean programs no matter how the judges scored her, as it is without much doubt that the judges had her pegged for last place in the very small GPF field (largely due to a lack of rep and her newbie status on senior international scene).

    I think if Gold skates well and lands all her jumps, she is a shoo-in for the second spot. She is the sparkly newcomer with the golden name, and international judges have shown they will score her well if she does what she can do. :saint: International judges are still re-warming up to Nagasu and seeing edge calls, even where they are not. ;) Nats third place is probably between Nagasu and Gao. Although if either Nagasu or Gao skate lights out and Gold doesn't, who knows? Let's not forget Agnes either. But, again, IMO, Gold is more favored to make World team, even with a margin for some small errors at Nats. I could of course be wrong, and I'm placing no serious bets really. :p

    Pardon me for "sounding like an old broken record" too, ... but even though Rachael surely had fight and determination to go along with solid jumps (as well as U.S. fed political support), she didn't seem to possess the kind of "knock-em-dead" talent or above average artistic skills the international judges were looking for. I don't think Rachael ever made it past 7th place at Worlds. Now for the "broken record" aspect: Might Rachael have fully developed artistically had she moved to a different coach much sooner? At this vantage point, I think Rachael gave it all she had and the odds were not in her favor to make top three at Worlds, especially not with Alissa and Mirai around and the former "almost girl" also in the picture. I think any one of Alissa, Mirai and Ashley always displayed aspects of greater talent and potential, and that Rachael seemed to peak in figure skating as a young teenager.
  39. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Well, it's a downward trend she's on and it's not a good sign. She will have some major work to do if she wants to move up from 5th place at nationals.

    The key for Gao will be to have a solid short program and hit that 3-3. She's now 1 for 3 on it so far.

    Perhaps...certainly seems like so but with what happened to Wagner, will she even be present (or fit) to defend her title?

    she was 5th in 2009
  40. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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