U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Nov 25, 2012.

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  1. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    If Christina skates well in Sochi, she could put herself in line for that 2nd spot.

    Remember, Miraifans, last season, Ashley was 3rd and 4th in her GPs. :)
  2. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ^^ITA. This gives her a huge advantage over both Gracie and Mirai. This is a chance to compete against the top skaters of the season...I don't know how good her chances of medaling are but two good performances could give her an edge over Gracie and Mirai.
  3. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    I agree that it could help her international rep, but perhaps all this talk about "advantage" at Nationals is overrated/overstated. In the fall of 2009, Wagner qualified for the GPF and Nagasu had a meh GP season. But at Nationals, as we all know it was Nagasu who stepped up (Wagner wasn't bad, but that one fall in the SP cost her BIG)...and in the end, that was enough to get the ticket.

    Bottom line is this: Gao will still have to deliver at nationals and I don't think there is much room for error on her part. She does not want to dig herself a hole in the SP...
  4. Skater91

    Skater91 New Member

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    Christina Gao has to come 5th again at US Nationals! Its Tradition! :lol:

    Lets make 4 years in a row coming 5th!
    Coco and (deleted member) like this.
  5. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Christina's top score in the SP was around 57 pts. at SA w/ a 3-3 and clean. Mirai got 61 pts. w/ a wonky landing at NHK. Gracie got 62 pts. clean at CoR ,and Agnes got 60 pts. missing some levels on her spins at the same competition. I wouldn't be surprised if Christina found herself a little behind after the SP at Nationals. But, she does have the possibility to do well at the GPF and thus raise her credibility in the eyes of the USFSA by Nationals, which might result in bigger PCS scores there.
  6. edonice

    edonice New Member

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    I know the COP system is supposed to be more fair, but I still think it's relative to the competition. There's no way Vanessa Lam can hold up to these more experienced skaters, even though her regional (sectional?) score was so high.
  7. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    I'm so excited for Christina, her hard work is paying off :cheer: I hope she skates well and builds up some visibility with the international judges.

    Whomp'em Gangnum Style, Xtina! :cheer2:
  8. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    If Christina upgraded her combo to a 3f-3t, which we know she's capable of and has done in the past, that would probably bump her up to around 60 points. And if she did 3f-3t in her FS, she'd be looking at around 120 for a clean skate, and maybe higher as including a 3-3 and doing a 7 triple program could help boost her PCS just because if she pulled it off, it would be really impressive and ambitious. So that means her scoring potential is around 180-185. Also I think her SP score at SA would have been higher had she not skated 2nd and been coming off a meh 2011-2012 season. I'm sure if she skates like that at the GPF, her score will be higher by at least a couple points, might even top 60. She's scored 58+ for her SP at a JGP event two seasons ago before she improved so much, so I definitely think 60 is possible for her, even without doing the 3f-3t.

    I'm surprised by how many people think Mirai is a frontrunner for the 2nd spot, at this point I'd say she's behind Gracie and Christina to be honest, yes her performances on the GP this season LOOKED good, but she's still having issues with the URs, and neither her 3t-3t or 2a-3t are rock solid combos for her, at least not yet. I'm thinking Mirai will probably place 3rd or 4th at Nationals and go to 4CC most likely. I still really like her skating, but for whatever reason, it doesn't seem as impressive to me as it was around the time of the last Olympics. Maybe if she was going for harder content, or rotating all her jumps consistently, my opinion would change, so if come Nationals she does just that, and I may be dazzled by her merits once again. But who knows.

    In any event, I think it might be hard for Agnes to make the podium at Nationals this time.
  9. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Mirai with URs is still scoring higher than a totally clean Christina. So yeah, I'd say she has a pretty decent shot at one of the two World team spots.
  10. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    She isn't though. Her score at CoC was lower than Christina's at SA and about the same as Christina at TEB, where keep in mind, Christina DID have a pretty major error in her SP. Then her score at NHK was like 2 points higher than Christina at SA, and I really do think start order and reputation hurt Christina in the SP and if she repeats those skates at the GPF her score will likely be around 5 points higher. Christina's FS score at SA is still higher than either of Mirai's FS scores thus far, too. And Gracie made loads of mistakes in her COR FS and scored similarly to those two for clean-to-the-eye skates. So really, if Gracie can just avoid having a mini-meltdown in her FS, she's likely to be a strong 2nd at Nationals. Plus Christina might get more PCS inflation at Nats this year after making the GPF, and especially if she skates well there. Mirai's stock is down a bit among USFS I tend to think, where she was 7th at Nationals last year, not a very inspiring 3rd the year before, and has never made the GPF in all of her 5 seasons she's competed on it. Gracie and Christina are younger and have improved a lot recently, and they both seem hungry for success and a spot on the Olympic team, Mirai, she's already been to the Olympics and while it's nice to see her skating pretty well now, she's been regressing since the Olympics overall, her performances inconsistent, and even this season now she's bouncing back, her scores and skating still seem to have taken a step back since 2010. There's still time for her, and she's very talented, so if she can go and pull and Ashley then my hat's off to her. I just don't see that happening THIS SEASON.
  11. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    Everyone's got something to fix to become the frontrunner for silver:

    -Mirai needs to avoid putting too much pressure on herself (a la 2011 Nationals)
    -Christina needs to be 100% clean. 100%
    -Gracie needs to put two decent programs out and (at the very least) acknowledge that there's music playing while she's skating
    -Agnes needs to do her usual clean SP...AND maintain her composure during the FS

    they're all capable of all these things. It's just a matter of who does. If they're all clean and it's close, so much the better.
  12. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Pinky, there's always a lot of "ifs" and "mights" in your scenarios. I'll wait to see what happens at Nationals. I'm not counting Christina or Gracie out, but I think you're severely discrediting Mirai's chances. She is a totally different skater than what we've seen the past two seasons, and that's already been reflected in her scores and consistency this season.
  13. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Nagasu is just as much in the mix as Wagner, Gold and Gao are. It will come down to who delivers when it counts. Besides, Nagasu typically shows her best as the underdog.

    I still have Nagasu in front of Gao at this point but that may change depending on results of GPF.
  14. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I was comparing scores at different GP events (which is never 100% accurate, but personally it gives me a baseline to go off of). I would never compare sectional scores to scores at an important, international events. So, Vanessa's score is not to be considered.

    Don't get me wrong. I'm not an uber for any U.S. lady. I just would like to see the 2 that go to Worlds be the best, and for me, all of the top ladies right now have some great skills to offer. I've always liked Mirai but I'm warming to the new and improved Christina this year.

    Mirai's 2x-3t has actually been pretty consistent since Glacier Falls. I recall one competition where she was downgraded on the 3t but otherwise, she's done very well with that jump combo. I do agree that the 3t-3t is not perfect, but she is still transitioning to that jump combo and it has slowly been getting better. Mirai has always had problems with UR's but they tend to get better later in the season: 2009 CoC ----> 2010 Winter Olympics is an extreme example that comes to my mind. So, I still hold out hope for her despite her last couple of seasons since she seems so motivated this season
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2012
  15. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    It will be interesting to see Gao and Nagasu skate in the same warm up groups and practices. I wish I could see in person to compare their speed and skating skills.

    I do think Christina has not been given any love by the judges or her federation. If she keeps landing everything, that could change. But if it doesn't change, Mirai has the edge because she's outscoring her even with the URs.

    Here's a question - can a federation send a skater to 4CCs and also to Junior Worlds in the same season? Or once they compete at 4CCs are they ineligible for Junior Worlds?
    Maofan7 and (deleted member) like this.
  16. icellist

    icellist New Member

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    i've read a lot about how Mirai stunk at 2011 Nats. To me, I thought Mirai and Flatt were very on par with each other. Both made big mistakes in the FS and Mirai had a better SP. I was very unhappy about the whole tibia gate thing after Mirai skated superbly at 4CC. What were your opinions?
  17. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    Gawd, do we have to relive Tibiagate??????
  18. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    2010 Winter Olympics was known for the generous calling (I remember jokes about it in the threads and how Ando might as well go for the 3/3 considering the calls). Besides, Mirai has gotten ur calls late in the season before. 2011 4CC is the one example where I remember she definitely fixed her urs.

    re: Mirai. I don't know if she's a totally different skater. I think she always has it in her, and she has shown enough of her brilliant side to keep fans hoping over the years. Whether she can have a consistently brilliant season remains to be seen. It's too early to say whether she can be completely different for a whole season.
  19. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Let's please not revisit "Tibia-gate" again... maybe start a new thread in the Trash Can if you really care that much!

    As of now, a skater still can be sent to both, I'm pretty sure, as long as they are age-eligible. I just checked past seasons' assignments, and USFS hasn't sent a lady to both Four Continents and Junior Worlds since Caroline Zhang in 2009. I hope the post-Nationals assignments continue to be spread around/out because it's important for as many different skaters as possible to establish or raise their ISU SB scores and World Standings ranking points each season, and skaters can only count 1 ISU Championship (Worlds, 4CC or Jr. Worlds) for World Standings points per season.

    ETA:

    A similar question was raised in the U.S. Men's thread in GSD and my reply there was:
    "I looked up the current ISU Constitution and General Regulations online and didn't see it included/underlined as a new rule, so I don't believe that particular proposal was passed at the ISU Congress this summer? Can anyone confirm?"
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2012
  20. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    My guess is that Gracie is going to junior world again if she isn't top 4, though I surely hope Agnes Z and Gao won't be going to JW again if they don't get 4CC or worlds. Let's hope Wang, Cesario, Keiser and the others step it up and "speak" for their junior world spots! :)

    (ETA: That said I don't follow ISU rule changes closely to know whether Gracie can go)

    (I also hope USFS will consider the ability of the lady to do a flip in the short as part of their consideration for junior world)
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2012
  21. icellist

    icellist New Member

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    Well, I wasn't talking about Tibia gate persay, just the scoring for the FS at 2011 nats between Mirai and Rachael
  22. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    I really hope Cain doesn't get sent to JW since she doesn't have a reliable 3F. USFS seems to love her though and she gets marked very highly when she skates well.
  23. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    Can we make a list of the juniors with reliable enough 3Fs? I don't follow all of them closely enough.
  24. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Is there a list of top SP's for US ladies this season?
  25. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Going by junior grand prix results...

    Cain did her 3 Flip and loop combo in the short during her one jgp, but seemed to have trouble landing many triples in the long at that event (3 falls) (She is stronger in edge jumps). Pattern seemed to continue in sectionals.

    Lam did her flip in the short but messed up the lutz at that same jgp; she did quite a few triples in the long but only the triple toe got positive goe. She just missed getting a second jgp.

    Courtney Hicks hasn't been very consistent in the short program this season, though the issue seemed to be the loop, not the flip. (I don't think she's had a clean short this season.) Long program seemed fine from what I recall.

    Baga fell on her flip and did a 3t/2t with -goe in JGP Lake Placid. Long program just okay. I wonder if she's shifting her focus to pairs. (She didn't get a second jgp)

    Wang messed up her short program (two jump issues) in Lake Placid but did a great one in her second jgp. The long program in both events was great.

    Hannah Miller did a clean short in her first jgp but not the second one (messed up the loop). Her long program was also better at her first jgp.

    Cesario skated very well in both long and short when she wasn't having an injury (like in her first jgp and sectionals, but she skated with an injury at her second jgp and withdrew).

    Keiser did fairly well in the short program at both jgp events despite negative goes in her jumps (negative goe in her flip and 3/3). She did well in the long in her first jgp but came 7th in the free skate in the second event). We'll see if she can get some positive goes in the jgpf.

    Barbie Long got her 3 flip downgraded in her one jgp event but did a triple-triple combo and landed about 5 triples in the long.

    Wang, Keiser and Miller will be at the JGPF
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2012
  26. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    The ISU keeps a list of short program SB scores - here are the 13 U.S. ladies above 50 points in GP/JGP so far: (only Long is competing Jr. at Nationals):
    3 63.09 Ashley WAGNER USA ISU GP Trophee Bompard 2012 16.11.2012
    5 62.16 Gracie GOLD USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
    7 61.18 Mirai NAGASU USA ISU GP NHK Trophy 2012 23.11.2012
    10 60.18 Agnes ZAWADZKI USA ISU GP Rostelecom Cup 2012 09.11.2012
    15 58.47 Angela WANG USA ISU JGP Croatia Cup 2012 04.10.2012
    20 56.63 Christina GAO USA ISU GP Hilton HHonors Skate America 2012 20.10.2012
    21 55.47 Hannah MILLER USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
    22 55.14 Leah KEISER USA ISU JGP Pokal d. Blauen Schwerter 2012 11.10.2012
    27 54.38 Samantha CESARIO USA ISU JGP Austria 2012 14.09.2012
    34 52.97 Caroline ZHANG USA ISU GP Skate Canada International 2012 26.10.2012
    38 52.24 Barbie LONG USA ISU JGP Sencila Bled Cup 2012 27.09.2012 (JR in US)
    41 51.36 Courtney HICKS USA ISU JGP Lake Placid 2012 31.08.2012
    42 51.31 Ashley CAIN USA ISU JGP Courchevel 2012 23.08.2012

    ETA:

    Zawadzki's SP high score internationally so far this season is 65.24 (Salt Lake Senior B in Sept.) but it's not counted on the ISU SB list.

    I think I know what you mean, but skating well and cleanly at any competition deserves some credit and consideration, IMO. ;) Lam only scored 48.40 in her SP at the Courchevel JGP but she skated a clean SP at Sectionals in Nov. (3Lz+2Lo, 2A, 3F, 3 level 4 spins & footwork) and scored 59.43, so she is capable of a good score when she executes well.
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2012
  27. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Barbie Long usually gets edge calls on her 3f, which explains why her SP scores aren't higher considering her 3lz-3t is pretty consistent. Polina Edmunds has a pretty consistent 3f that doesn't usually get edge calls, and it's strong enough that she attempts, and usually pulls off, a 3f-3t in her FS.

    Kiri and Ashley don't really have the technical content to garner being sent to JW IMO, Kiri is only really consistent with 3t and 3s, she doesn't attempt 3lo, historically 2a has given her trouble, and her 3lz and 3f are iffy. Cain has a strong 3lo and 3s, and sometimes the 3lz works for her, but 3f is arguably her weakest triple so that's a concern regarding JW.

    Vanessa and Hannah can do the harder triples, but Lam has a bad flutz and both girls have very small jumps which garner minimal GOE at best, sometimes negative even, and neither has a 3-3.

    Hicks is prone to mistakes but is capable of 3-3s and I don't think she usually gets edge calls on her lutz or flip. 3f is usually a strong jump for her.

    Keiser has 3lz-3t but the 3t is pretty much always UR. She can do 3f and the other triples, but is hit or miss when it comes to landing or cleanly executing them.

    Angela Wang and Samatha both have big jumps and can do all the triples. Samantha has a 3flutz but I don't think Angela has edge issues on either jumps, 3f is a strong jump for both girls. Angela has 3lz-3t that is pretty consistent and Samantha has talked about 3lo-3lo so maybe we'll see that at Nationals.

    Mariah Bell can do all the triples but no 3-3 and her jumps are small and not always consistent.

    I'd say the best JW team would be Angela, Samantha, and either Polina or Barbie (whoever places higher at Nationals), or if Samantha were to get 4CC instead, then Angela, Polina, and Barbie could go. If they want to stick to the senior ladies at Nationals, then Miller and Keiser probably have the next best chances of making this. And this is excluding the possibility that Gracie (or I guess Agnes and Christina are still technically age eligible) gets sent, because if she's like 5th or 6th at Nationals she'll likely be offered the spot first even if she decides to decline.
  28. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    Hicks has historically had a huge flutz, IIRC. She's attempting loop in the SP this year along with the required flip because of that.

    I'm inclined to say that none of the US Nationals Junior Ladies competitors are going to be sent to JW this year, save for perhaps Barbie Long if she wins in convincing fashion. Edmunds attempts some ambitious content, but is frequently dinged with UR calls, so her score can vary within a very wide range for a "clean" program depending on how strict the caller is. She still has a very raw awkwardness to much of her skating, so I doubt PCS will be very high internationally. Long's PCS have improved this year, but she's still less polished IMO than Wang, Miller, Keiser, Baga, Lam, Cain, etc. Additionally, since Edmunds wasn't sent to a JGP this year (and I still think that's a mistake on USFS' part), she'd have to be sent to a junior 'B' international between nationals and JW in order to be eligible. I think that's a bigger investment than USFS is going to make; there are a large number of strong, JW age-eligible skaters to send instead. While Edmunds has turned some heads this year with her technical content, she hasn't been consistently so fantastic this year (a la Zawadzki 2010, Hicks 2011 and Gold 2012) to warrant being sent over the other skaters.

    My predictions for JW team: Wang, Cesario, Miller. Possibly Lam (she tends to skate well domestically and has had a lot of time to prepare for nationals).
    Sylvia and (deleted member) like this.
  29. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    That was true in the past, but she has corrected the issue this season. The jump is less consistent but she got credit for a true lutz at her first JGP event and at Sectionals.
  30. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think the final group for the LP at Nationals could be -

    Wagner - a good 3f-3t puts her in the driver's seat at Nationals. A clean 3f-2t puts her in a much tighter competition w/ the next 3. Perhaps leading, perhaps very close behind to any of the next 3.
    Gold - a possible leader after the SP if no 3-3 from Ashley. Otherwise 2nd - 4th
    Nagasu - see above. Otherwise, 2nd -4th
    Zawadzki - see above. Otherwise, 2nd - 4th
    Gao - will be closer to the above 4 than the Fall scores suggest. I think being a GPF finalist will help close some of that gap.
    Wang or Czisny (if she can skate competently by January) - interesting scenario; what if Czisny skates a clean SP complete w/ all the style and beautiful spins? Will the judges put her in the mix for the title? She'll definitely be in the final group w/ a good score. Wang is the top US junior and would be my pick to be in the final group if Czisny has problems.

    -----

    The penultimate group could be a bunch of Juniors

    Wang or Czisny - a botched performance by Czisny will still get her enough decent PCS to be in the penultimate group. As stated, Wang is probably the best of the Juniors
    Cesario - if healthy, bigger jumps and nice choreography will IMO put her above all of the other juniors. Being a newcomer to Senior Nats might hold her back just a little.
    Lam - usually very solid in the SP at Nats, but Cesario and Wang are generally more impressive this year and Lam has proven to be uneven.
    Miller - smaller jumps, but pretty solid
    Keiser - better than last year and ambitious, but prone to UR and needs more time to skate like a senior
    Zhang- could be anywhere from the final group to worse than the penultimate group. I can't read her right now. Some have said she does much better later in the season

    ------

    Dunne - ETA - I didn't see she did so well in the SP at sectionals. Could be a factor, but I think Hicks and Cain have more international exposure and will get more props
    Hicks - if she is indeed being more strategic to remove the 3z, she could be in the penultimate group ahead of a flawed Zhang or even Keiser w/ UR's
    Cain - I don't think she's penultimate group material yet but she is improving by virtue of her Sectionals performance
    Baga - pleasant skater, but she's now spreading out into Pairs and doesn't have big moves. I don't see her doing much on the singles front this year.

    It seems to be shaking out into an easier to define pecking order than in the past.

    ETA - Reading Sylvia's post below,

    Siraj - in danger of just disappearing from the ranks of the top ladies.
    Bereswill - has been a fair-to-middling skater for the last few years, but also pretty disastrous at times. I don't see her among the top skaters at nationals
    Forte - at this stage is probably just skating for the helluvit, for herself, w/o any thought to being a top lady
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2012
  31. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Sectionals SP - Senior Ladies:
    59.43 Lam 3Lz2Lo, 2A, 3F
    58.20 Dunne 3Lz2T, 3F, 2A (Haley has had several good SP performances this season)
    57.80 Cesario 3F2T, 2A, 3Lo
    57.80 Hicks 3F3T -1.58, 3Lo, 2A
    55.83 Cain 3Lo2T, 3S, 2A
    51.69 Bereswill 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A (comeback season - Becky's last Nationals in singles was in 2010)
    51.06 Baga 3F< -2.10, 3T2T, 2A
    48.88 Siraj 3T2T, 1Lz, 2A (Yasmin is very capable of a good SP score when she skates clean)
    48.18 Forte 3Lz2T, 3S, 2A

    ETA that Dunne, Bereswill and Siraj have all shown significant improvements during the course of this season, IMO.
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2012
  32. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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  33. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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  34. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Tough Sectionals! Doesn't look like Baga will make it this time :( Here's hoping Cesario and Hicks to hang in there!
  35. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Those are the Nationals qualifiers; all of those ladies will be competing in Omaha.
  36. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Oh of course. :D

    What was I thinking? :D
  37. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Any news about whether Kiira Korpi will be participating in the Final? Word is she's having back problems...if she withdraws, that means Mirai would be headed to Sochi. Granted, it may be too late at this point...
  38. Theatregirl1122

    Theatregirl1122 Well-Known Member

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    It would definitely be too late at this point.
  39. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    The women's SP is Friday afternoon (early Fri morning here in the US) if I'm not mistaken. FAR too late to fly in any replacement at this point.
  40. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    Kiira Korpi Official &#8207;@kiirakorpi_fi tweeted earlier today:
    "Back cramps and stomach flu, not a perfect way to get prepared for the GP final, BUT I survived and now I'm on my way to Sochi! Yes!!!"

    As the next alternate, Nagasu was supposed to be on stand-by until noon Sochi time on Monday, Dec, 3rd.

    The coaches of Angela Wang, Hannah Miller, and Leah Keiser had some nice things to say about their students in this JGP Final preview article: http://web.icenetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121205&content_id=40539742&vkey=ice_news
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