U.S. Ladies [#6]: "Swaggering with the S'Wagner" et al. into 2013

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Sylvia, Nov 25, 2012.

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  1. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    Starting this new thread a little early - credit goes to zebobes for the title. ;)

    Re-posting from the previous thread:

    • SENIOR QUALIFIERS via Sectionals:
      Easterns 1-4: Samantha Cesario 163.53, Yasmin Siraj 151.35, Haley Dunne 139.69, Joelle Forte 136.47;
      Midwesterns 1-4: Ashley Cain 161.49, Becky Bereswill 149.44, Kiri Baga 141.42, Morgan Bell 133.06;
      Pacifics 1-4: Vanessa Lam 177.73, Courtney Hicks 161.72, Sophia Adams 131.49, Amanda Hofmann 122.29.

      Making their respective senior national debuts in Omaha are Gold, Hicks, Cain, Miller, and Hofmann.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2012
  2. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    It was nice to see Mirai getting a second GP and performing so well at NHK. She seems to be rebuilding her confidence. Her fp dress was lovely. It seems to be different from what she wore earlier in the season, but I could be wrong.

    Anyway on to GPF for Ashley, and bearing down for all to bring out their best at Nationals, and gearing up to peak at Worlds for those who win a berth.
     
  3. os168

    os168 Active Member

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    LOL at the title of this thread. S'Wagner has certainly swagger her way through this season and looking a favourite at the moment. How quickly impressions change in less than 12 months.

    My Vcash bet however goes to Mirai. Got to stick with my original sentimental favourite US lady. The perpetual underdog especially now no longer has Frank for support. It was looking to be a dire season with only 1 GP assignment and rumoured funding issues. Yet weirdly by sheer luck, her career enjoyed a turned around with the NHK invitation out of no where and made :eek: her 2nd FS without a melt down and actually podiumed!! Hurray~ it is a bloomin' miracle to put it lightly!

    Therefore my support goes to Miraicle 'not an alien' Nagasu. Hope there is a miracle future installed for her, starting with the US nationals then the Worlds. One step at a time and hopefully she will soon be flying again. With the return her 3:3s, maybe just maybe she can provide a humbling experience to S'Wagner very soon.
     
  4. Alex Forrest

    Alex Forrest Banned Member

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    My pick to win is Ashley, but I always root for Mirai because when she is on she is just as talented any top skater. It's so nice to see her season turn around, and she has a smile on her face again. Last year just looked like torture for her. So I'm happy for her. I really can't understand how Mao beat her in the LP at NHK, I was amazed she did. Mao's skating is still beautiful, but it's not easy to watch anymore. And maybe it's me, but I find myself bobbing my head up and down when she's skating. I never noticed how 'bouncy' she is across the ice. I just am not appreciating her skating all that much anymore.

    And can someone explain what is required to get extra credit for a 'broken leg sitspin'? I've seen so many absolutely unrealized and wretched ones this year. Are they getting credit for the BLS even if it only looks like their free leg is slightly going off to the side? I think it was Gracie Gold's that was so bad.
     
  5. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    The race for that second spot is going to be so interesting.

    Note however, that Gao's score was for a clean competition so she is pretty much maxed out. She could upgrade her flip/toe in the free to a 3/3 to give herself 2 to 3 more points but that's it really. Her strength so far this season is her consistency and not having any UR calls.

    Nagasu, Gold and Zawadzki received comparable scores for sub par skates so they have a lot of scoring potential left unrealized.

    I guess it's the age old question of whether you want $20 for certain, or a 50% chance of double or nothing.
     
  6. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Well the numbers make sense. The URs hurt Nagasu in both base value and GOEs. She only got a little over 3 points in GOEs. Asada on the other hand accumulated 8 points GOE. And Asada did leave a great impression by having her most outstanding elements, the steps and the choreographic sequence, last in the program. That really boosted her PCS. Nagasu's program was kind of bland all the way through.
     
  7. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    If Gracie skates to her best and nails everything, she will likely receive the edge, IMHO, for the second spot. This assumes that Ms. Ash will be bringing her new found swag and consistency with her to Nationals and thus claim her second National title.

    I would love to see Christina or Mirai take silver. But realistically, even should Christina skate well, she may be given short shrift in the judging, just as she was in sp at Skate America. She was given better marks in the fp at SA, but it does seem that she's a bit low-balled even when she skates clean.

    So, obviously Mirai and even Gracie seem to have more international rep with the judges. Mirai's star has been tarnished and she's working on shining it up again, while Gracie's strong jumping ability and other intangibles seem to have anointed her in the minds of many as the next U.S. lady "entitled" to receive top billing.
     
  8. edonice

    edonice New Member

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    Gao is such a lovely, quiet skater that she goes under-recognized. Nobody was expecting much of her in her first GP event, which is why I think she was underscored for some truly light, deceptively smooth programs.

    The other skaters - especially Wagner and Gold - are much better at talking themselves up and getting recognized as a result, so skaters who prefer to let their skating speak for them - Gao - are ignored. I really hope the judges are watching and not just listening to the hype, because Gao deserves to be rewarded for the fine skating she puts out there.
     
    kwanette and (deleted member) like this.
  9. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I think Gao's short program is lovely. The free is a little overwhelming for her to be honest. She doesn't have that attitude or danceability to take on Libertango (yet, although I said the same last season too) nor is her movement quick enough. It ended up being more than she could handle - and I bet it hurt her in PCS.
     
  10. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    If the current top 5 stay the top 5 after nationals, I hope they send #3-#5 to Four Continents so they at least get a championship out of this season.

    However, if Gold is #2, I'm sure they'll send her to 4CC as a tuneup for worlds.

    Nationals is going to be a scorcher!
     
  11. michiruwater

    michiruwater Well-Known Member

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    I really doubt they won't send Ashley to 4CCs. She's the defending champion.
     
  12. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    I think Ashley and Gracie will likely be 1 and 2, and if I had to guess, Christina will be 3rd, Mirai 4th, and Agnes 5th, just judging by the skating each has put out thus far this season. Gao seems very consistent which is why I have her ahead of Mirai (who's been more consistent but having UR and edge call issues) and Agnes (who's been better in terms of consistency, but still making enough mistakes to prevent her from scoring super well on the GP this season). Gracie seems like a USFS darling and further, her international scores with all those mistakes seem to suggest that she can edge out a clean Christina even with a few errors. The question is, if she does go clean, can she beat Ashley? If Ashley puts in a 3-3 and 2a-3t, I would say no, but if not...I wonder.
     
  13. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    I hope the team is Ashley and Mirai. I think they are the best shot at three skaters for the Olympics.I believe Ashley can win at least a bronze, and if that is the case, Mirai would just need to be 10th or better. Totally do-able.
     
  14. Alex Forrest

    Alex Forrest Banned Member

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    That's my thinking, too. However, I think it is vital that Mirai pulls a slam dunk at Nationals and cleans up her URs. Like she did at 2010 Nats. If she comes out of Nats with talk that maybe she even should have won, like at 2010 Nats, then I think she can build momentum for Worlds. 10th place should be easy for her. Nagasu is too talented to be unappreciated by the judging panel, and I'm hoping her NHK performance started a new look at her by the judges.

    Gold is definitely an up and comer, but I'd feel more comfortable sending Wagner and Nagasu to Worlds to secure three Oly spots. But if Gold goes clean, it may be hard not to put her on the World team.

    Whatever the skates are at Nationals, I truly believe that the World team should be either Wagner/Nagasu or Wagner/Gold. I've loved seeing Gao's growth this season, and Agnes' too, but we want three Oly spots and those two skaters are a big risk. Gao because she might not have any rep, and Agnes because she's so inconsistent. Let's not take any chances this time, even if say a Czisny comes back and goes clean(ish) for her. The USFS has been almost reckless with their world teams the past couple of years, whether it's Flatt or Czisny they put on the team even after their prime.

    I just hope that everyone skates to their potential and comes off the ice satisfied and happy.
     
  15. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    Wagner/Nagasu or Wagner/Gold...I'm cool either way!

    [but I still want Angela Wang to go to JW, medal, nail the GP next year and make the 2014 Olympic team! :)]
     
  16. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    Sarah and Drew's latest Inside Edge blog for IceNetwork is a Sectional champions roundup - here's an excerpt with a few quotes:
     
  17. icellist

    icellist Member

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    Out of curiosity, who do you guys want to be on the JW team?

    I think everyone is going to choose Angela Wang for 1 spot but what about the other 2?
     
  18. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I'm rooting for Cesario; then Keiser or Hicks (slightly preferring Keiser).
     
  19. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    My dream team is Wang, Miller, Keiser.
     
  20. emma1227

    emma1227 New Member

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    Edmunds...yes, I do know that is a no go!! Most likely, right?
     
  21. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Well she could win the junior title and go to JW and win that. For this season, that's the most she can achieve, but for next season, who knows? She could wind up on the Olympic team. Her skating is definitely very impressive.
     
  22. Sylvia

    Sylvia On to Nationals!

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    Remember that Polina Edmunds has yet to attain the required minimum technical element scores at an international competition before 2013 Junior Worlds.

    Competed on JGP this fall - Senior at 2013 Nationals: Wang (gold, bronze, JGPF), Miller (2 silvers, JGPF), Keiser (gold, JGPF), Cesario (bronze), Hicks (silver), Lam, Cain, Baga
    Still age-eligible Seniors: Gao, Gold, Siraj
    Junior at Nationals who have attained the minimum scores: Long (silver at JGP Slovenia), Mariah Bell (silver at 2012 Gardena Spring Trophy)
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2012
  23. mag

    mag Well-Known Member

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    So if Gold isn't 1st or 2nd at Nationals so doesn't go to Sr. Worlds, can she go to Jr. Worlds now that she has competed on the SGP? Was that rule actually passed or did we all just talk about it being a good idea?
     
  24. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Actually if she wins GPF and Nationals convincingly, I would perefer her to skip 4CCs to work on her 3/3, esp if Yuna is really going to be there.

    In my ideal world, the world team will be Wagner and Nagasu, 4CC team will be Gold, Gao and Cesario (sorry Zawadzki), and Jr world team will be Wang, Keiser and Hicks.
     
  25. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    And Hannah Miller, Polina Edmunds and Long get nothing? :drama: :mitchell:
    :p
     
  26. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that:

    Worlds - Wagner, Gold
    4CCs - Nagasu, Gao, Zawadzki
    JW - Wang, Cesario, Long

    It's going to be tough to make any of the teams though. Interesting that Vanessa Lam said her goal was to make the Junior Worlds team this season, you'd think with her huge score at sectionals, she'd be aiming for Worlds or 4CCs (not that she's likely to get either, but still).
     
  27. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think the World's Team will be - (1) Wagner and (2) Gold or Nagasu. It will depend on who improves the most by nationals. Will it be Nagasu getting her UR's under control -or- will it be Gold putting together all her jumps?

    Gao is mentioned but she is getting marks just equivalent to a somewhat flawed Gold and Nagasu while skating squeaky clean. Don't get me wrong. I love the improvement in her skating and consistency, but she will only have a prayer of keeping up with an improved Gold or Nagasu by doing a 3-3 in the SP and perhaps going to a 3f-3t in the LP. Of course, if Gold can't put it together and Nagasu turns into a headcase, then all bets are off and Gao could be #2.

    Zawadzki has an even taller order to fill: She must skate nearly perfect in the LP to get ahead of the aforementioned ladies. I would bet that doesn't happen.

    IMO, no one else contends.

    I don't think it's possible to predict a 4CC's team. It will depend upon whether the USFSA wants to send its A team or give others in our deep field a chance. Wagner may want to go to get more mileage on her 3f-3t (SP) and 2x-3t (LP,) as well as defend her title. Gold or Nagasu similarly may want to go if either makes the World's team to get more mileage. Then again, Gao or Zawadzki would also benefit. Sending someone like Gao would give her a shot at showing the world that she is definitely an elite skater and is here to stay, thus setting her up for next season.

    Another remote possibility for 4CC's is Cesario if she really does well at Nationals due to her age: Send the younger ladies to Jr. Worlds but give the relatively older Cesario another chance to show her promise.

    I assume any of Wang, Miller and Keiser are possibilities for Jr. Worlds only.

    I also don't think that either Czisny or Zhang will be sent to 4CC's regardless. Czisny will most likely not be in fighting shape at Nats. Unless Zhang undergoes a miracle makeover, she'll be left in the dust.

    Actually, another crazy scenario is Flatt in a secret lab @ Stanford plotting a takeover of US ladies, where she will win Nats, 4CC's and Worlds!
     
  28. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I really hope this is how it pans out! :)

    I really want to see Ashley and a stronger Mirai on the world team. I just think Gracie is still too green for worlds. If it's a head-to-head battle and both Mirai and Gracie skate well, I'd give the nod to Mirai. She has been steadily improving as the season progresses, she's got the international experience and she's the more complete skater. Gracie has great jumps and decent spins but she has no experience at the world level...this is not the year for the US to gamble with a newbie at worlds. That's not to say Mirai is Miss Reliable all of a sudden but I'd prefer to take my chances with her than with anyone else. She's more focused this season and it shows. If she has a good showing at nationals, I say she's the best bet.

    Christina is getting better but not entirely there yet. She's just starting to come into her own but I think both she and Gracie would benefit from the increased level of competition at 4CC. Even though I enjoy Agnes' skating, she hasn't convinced anyone she's a good competitor yet so I think giving Samantha a shot and a chance to earn some senior international experience would be great. I've been watching her for a while and she's an engaging and very lovely skater.

    The only change I'd like to make is to junior worlds. A definite yes to Wang and Keiser, but (purely out of preference) I'd switch out Hicks for Hannah Miller. I much prefer her skating...BUT Hicks does skate with speed and her jumps are huge (when she lands them) so she's probably the better pick. She hasn't been very consistent this season but her PCS tend to keep her in the mix when she isn't falling all over the place so, in terms of a safer bet, I'd give that third spot to Hicks.
     
  29. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Someone mentioned Vanessa Lam above. I forgot to mention her in my last post, but I think her skating record is an interesting case: As I've said in other posts, she hits it big at Summer competitions and Regionals / Sectionals. However, she puts herself in a hole at important international competitions. I think if she skates really well at Nationals and the other top US Junior don't do so hot, the USFSA may relent and put her on the Junior Worlds team but it's not a given. With so many other ladies having already proven themselves internationally, she is at a disadvantage.
     
  30. Jarrett

    Jarrett Well-Known Member

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    Another great exhibition from Mirai at NHK. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUyBm2a_p6c Triple Flip in a exhibition is a good sign, usually just does triple toes, double axels or once in a while a loop.

    While I think Ashley Wagner is the favorite at Nationals this year, I would not be shocked if Mirai actually wins. She has a fire and joy in skating that hasn't been on display for a while. The key for Mirai will be rotating the triples and she has a decent chuck of time to focus on that before Nationals.
     
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