U.S. Ladies [#5]: All That Glitters Is Not Gold

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vagabond, Aug 24, 2012.

  1. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I think she'd be more in the Cohen than Hughes territory. She used to be in the Hughes territory: Sarah was a third tier skater during her career. Aside from her OGM, she won one other competition as a senior. The rest of her medals were mostly bronze and silver. That's what Ashley's been up to this point: lots of bronze and a few silver.

    Since nationals Ashley's jumped tiers, from third level to top tier. Depending on the competition, I think she could afford a mistake...maybe two at the national level. I take that back: I don't think there's any way in hell she'll be left off that world team this year, especially after what she's done so far. She's bound to have an off night eventually, and if that happens at nationals I don't doubt she'll get the nod from the judges, as she should. She's proven herself...
     
  2. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    let's just hope that off-night doesn't occur during...worlds :scream:


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    Wagner may have the same coach that Cohen had, but I don't think the two skaters could be any more different. Wagner is making her mark mainly due to her amazing consistency. Cohen made hers through her bendy, point-getting moves...

    If anything, I think Wagner is trying a little TOO hard to become that "artistic" skater. She's more of the athletic type- she should embrace that! Last year was a perfect mix I think.

    ETA: Wagner almost reminds me of MK actually in terms of how consistent she's been getting. You rarely saw MK fall or make major mistakes- that's why she racked up so many titles. I don't think Wagner can be compared to any of these three skaters, really- she'll stamp her own unique footprint on American skating.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2012
  3. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    One good thing about Ashley is she doesn't have that terrified look that we see so often from skaters like Alissa and Mirai. She looks confident. She's always been good in the FP but i think at times she wanted it to much and never took the her time out on the ice and instead was always rushing. It's strange getting used to a US Lady again who you know isn't going to melt down or fall apart.
     
  4. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^ I find comparisons of Ashley to previous skating greats interesting.

    IMO, she has different attributes of both Michelle and Sasha (I don't see any comparison to Sarah at all. Sarah was incredibly consistent, but her technique was in retrospect pretty mediocre. She never would've survived IJS wheras Ashley seems to be thriving in it)

    I think this year, for the first time, I see Ashley's jumps becoming similar to Michelle's in her heyday - strong, yet not necessarily explosive, rotated w/ good tight technique ... except for the flutz. I guess the spins could be categorized as Kwanesque as well - strong and steady. Her sit spin REALLY reminds me of Kwan's! Kwan got a 3t-3t, so let's see if Ashley can get a 3-3 and 2x-3t as well.

    But, I think she wears her ambition on her sleeve and flirts w/ the audience in a more overt way that is reminiscent of Sasha. Of course, she isn't nearly as bendy as Sasha

    So, I guess I would say that she's more like Kwan in body and technique, but has Sasha's more overtly ambitious personality
     
  5. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Why does Ashley even need a 3/3? She beat the Russians by over 10 points without one.

    At this point in the season, how can you just add it? Shouldn't it be something she's been competing already, not just something you throw in? Seems like this would be an unneccessary risk.

    I think she is only talking about adding it because she wants to avoid the grief people dumped on Evan for not doing a quad.
     
  6. dawnie

    dawnie Active Member

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    I've never been a fan but I'm extremely impressed with Ashley's progress the past year. Even though Samson & Delilah is overused, I like her program and her performances at SA and especially TEB won me over.
    Well, now that we know she has one of the Worlds spots locked up, the battle for the other spot should be fierce with Gao, Gold, Nagasu, and Agnes all fighting for it.
     
  7. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ITA for the most part. It's obvious from her scores that a clean program from her with the technical content she has now is a safe and smart bet. I'm not one who thinks difficulty should be added just for difficulty's sake. The way to win under this system is to play to your strengths and skate smartly. Adding a bunch of technical content just to add it will only increase the risk of making a mistake and as of right now, it's unnecessary. The only time Ashley will need to up the ante technically is when she's competing against skaters who can challenge her on the PCS level (ie. Asada, Suzuki, Kostner, Kim).

    I think a 3-3 in the SP and the 2a-3t in the LP is all she needs...but I say she should aim to have these changes ready by worlds. She hasn't needed it so far b/c she's been the clear front-runner at all of her competitions this year. I think the GPF will be a good indicator of whether the additional content is necessary, especially if everyone skates their best. But with her content she's hit 127+ twice, so it's obvious the formula is working well.
     
  8. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    While Ashley is doing an amazing job thus far, there are 2 ladies who will definitely give her stiffer competition and have not yet debuted - Olympic Champ Yu Na Kim and World Champ Carolina Kostner. Plus, it's possible that Asada and Sotnikova could be in much better shape by Worlds. So, I think Ashley would do well to plan on adding a 3-3 in the SP and the 2x-3t in the LP later in the season. And I don't think she would be 'just adding' these jumps. I assume she is practicing them and has been for quite some time. Remember, that she eventually got the 3-3 by WTT.

    Adding them would comport with her strategy last season where she was began going for the 2x-3t at Nationals and the 3-3 by WTT. Of course, adding the 3-3 in time for Worlds would be more optimal than in time for WTT! Interestingly, this is the strategy that FC and Kwan used to implement ... adding 3-3s by Worlds.
     
  9. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    IMO she does not need a 3/3 at Nats at all and she should just add it for worlds. Although she could probably do a 3/3 at nationals, miss it, and still make the world team.
     
  10. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    If they are going to rest her at 4ccs so that others can have a chance to earn ranking points, etc., she should try a 3-3 at Nationals in the sp.

    At some point, the russian ladies are going to stop falling. I would not be surprised if at least 4 or 5 of the final LP group in Sochi have a 3-3 in the sp.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2012
  11. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

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    I will go out and say that Ashley needs a triple-triple in the short in order to not end up 4th-5th after the short at worlds. She'll want to be 1-2 after the short and she does need the flip-toe for that. 2x-3T isn't necessary for her I'd say, but it helps. Especially against Kim.

    She was trying axel-toe in practice at TEB, it's not as though she doesn't work on it but she's stated that the big tricks aren't going in unless she has them easily consistent.
     
  12. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I think Ashley should try a harder combo at gpf to see how it goes first. There's very little at stake there so it is a good place to try out a harder jump.
     
  13. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Others who can place ahead of her even if she goes conservatively clean: Kostner, Kim, Asada, Suzuki, Sot, Tuk, and possibly Korpi on a very good day. However, given the likelihood of everyone skating well, I would say she is looking very good at winning GPF and finally medalling at Worlds.
     
  14. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    No jinxing, Marco :p

    Of all the skaters who I think could beat Ashley: It will be interesting to see where Kostner and Kim are - Kim hasn't competed competitively since '11 Worlds, and before that '10 Worlds. At '11 Worlds, she was beaten by Ando w/o a 3-3. Kostner has conquered many demons, but can she take the pressure of defending her crown? Also, will she add a Lutz back to her reportoire and how would she handle that w/ hardly any comps leading up to Worlds? Asada can be magical but she doesn't seem to do the 3x or a 3-3, either. Plus, she got nailed w/ UR's at CoC. I think NHK might tell us a little more.

    I don't think Tuktamysheva, Korpi or Suzuki can beat Ashley in the short-term. Tuk skated lights out in Paris and was still nearly 11 pts. adrift of Ashley. Suzuki is in the twilight of her career. She's doing well for herself, is a great package of artistry, but I personally don't think she will keep up the intensity for much longer. Korpi is beloved by the judges but technically doesn't have the chops to beat Ashley IMO.

    Sotnikova is a question mark. Ashley beat her, but she's been spectacularly bad this season. I can't compare her potential to Ashley yet.
     
  15. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    I think if she had one consistently she would have thrown it in already. and it's not that simple to obtain a "harder jump" combination.
     
  16. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I do think she's been working on it but you know that old adage "if it ain't broke, don't fix it"...that applies to Ashley right now. She's scoring very well with her current content. Given her scoring trend in the SP right now, I don't think she'd be that far behind as long as she skates cleanly. Julia hit all of her tricks and Ashley was less than a point behind her. I see the SP scores at the GPF being very crowded if everyone skates cleanly. That means it will come down to the LP and Ashley is the standard for clean LPs right now. She's always been a strong LP skater so this isn't new, but given that so many usually have problems in the LP this is yet another advantage for Ashley.

    In short, at least for the Final, as long as she keeps doing what she's doing she'll be fine. But I do think we'll see some tougher content for worlds...
     
  17. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    No, but nothing at stake at GPF, other than mental factors. She doesn't need to win the gpf to be taken seriously at nationals or later competitions. Why not try one?

    re: triple triple. Too early to say whether she needs it for worlds. Too often what happens earlier in the season doesn't predict what happens later.

    But Ashley could try a triple triple or 2a-3t once in an international with low stakes, like the gpf. That way if she needs it later she has it.
     
  18. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

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    Two thumbs up for you :D
     
  19. Triple Butz

    Triple Butz Well-Known Member

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    She has tried it several times over the past two and a half seasons and I'm sure she does spend time practicing it. She's only done it cleanly without a 2ft and/or > once (CoR 2010) so she's getting better points by doing a 2a/2t with good GOE. I wonder if she would consider doing a 3t+2a+SEQ...it may be more feasible. Though, in the grand scheme of things it isn't going to boost her score more than a point or two. Then again, she may get another PCS bump for doing 7 triples instead of 6.
     
  20. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Good point about the 3t - 2x seq. I'm of the mind set that anything helps - if she squeezes another couple of points out of a 3t over a 2t, then that will only help her in a tight competition. The 2x sequences are easy for Ashley. After all, she does the 3l - 2x seq. just fine late in her LP. But, maybe that 2x-3t will eventually happen.

    BTW, I'm curious as to why she switched around the 3sal and the 3flutz from her 'Black Swan' LP layout': The 3sal comes earlier and the 3flutz later. Considering she flutzes, the change-up doesn't seem to give her a scoring edge (normally, a 3z in the 2d half of the program would be beneficial cuz it's worth more...
     
  21. Coco

    Coco Well-Known Member

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    Well, I think that the .10 bonus on the lutz negates some of the deduction for the inside edge.

    I wish she'd learn to do a proper lutz takeoff and use 2z-3t until she has a true 3z. This would give her practice on doing 3t on the back of a jump combination. If she put this in place of her current 3z, she'd have to omit the 2t from the 2a-2t. I believe the impact to her TES would be a loss of 1.18. She could make some of that back if she added a difficult feature or two to the 2a. I think she's capable of that because 2a is a strong jump for her and her legs are fresh at the beginning of the program. Also, if she's able to show better technique on the 2z-3t than she is on the 3z, she'd be gaining back the guaranteed loss of 1.0 in GOE.

    So happy for her success, but this has to be one of the worst flutzes ever. Never at any time is she even on the outside edge of the non-landing foot. They should call it a flip. What's scary is that they could call it a flip w/in the rules, I believe. And you know that's going to happen at the worst possible moment.

    I wonder why she's doing 3l+2a+seq instead of 3l2t. 3l3t is within reach for her, so I'm not sure why she's doing the much trickier 3l+2a+seq as it's riskier, imo, instead of working on the loop-toe combo. And it's only worth .24 more, if my math is right.

    I GUESS WE'LL NEVER KNOW :)
     
  22. emma1227

    emma1227 New Member

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    Completely agree, some great juniors coming up as well.
    I think we will do well in Sochi. Let's hope we can send three girls.
     
  23. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    The 3 Loop-2 Axel sequence is actually 0.5 more. I suspect they put it back in this season because skaters receive criticism for using the same jump layout and content. On top of that, it seems that that sequence has received more positive GOEs than her doing simply a 3 Loop-2 Toe. The higher GOE that combo got was probably 0.4, whereas the 3 Loop-2 Axel sequence has gotten even more than 1 point this season.

    And I don't know why everyone makes such a big deal out of her flutz and thinks that it's absolutely necessary for her fix it. She's doing perfectly fine with it and doesn't even receive more than 0.7 in deductions so I don't see why she should leave it out of her program until "it's fixed". At this level, I'm not sure skaters can completely fix their jump edges.
     
  24. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Well-Known Member

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    Ashley's lutz was borderline real last year. The odd time she would actually do it off an outside edge! I'm disappointed that it has gotten noticeably worse this year :/
     
  25. BmcC102

    BmcC102 Active Member

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    I agree with smarts1. The flutz issue is SO small! There are so many men and ladies who don't do their flip or lutz on the right edge. She is now doing one lutz a competition, in the second half of the program, where it receives bonus. It's such a BIG jump with a great landing, who gives a rats @ss if it's not perfect on take-off? She's getting the deduction, that's enough for me. :rolleyes:
     
  26. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I'd love for Ashley to kick some ass at worlds, but I think all the confident talk from Wagner's camp lately is almost asking for...a jinx from Skategod, esp considering how things can change by March. Hopefully things will go her way though
     
  27. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    ^ that's my biggest fear...you just don't know what can happen in the next few months...
     
  28. mgobluegirl

    mgobluegirl Well-Known Member

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    But what's fresh about the confident talk is that it's backed up by really hard work and training. She's not saying anything bad about others, or even comparing herself to other skaters, she just says that she feels good with herself and where she is with her skating. I don't think it's a bad outlook to have.
     
  29. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    There's nothing inappropriate about her words. I just think there's no telling what will happen in three months, and she'll look rather foolish if all this talk sets her up as her favorite and she doesn't do well at nationals or worlds (if she qualifies). Which, actually, happens quite often (favorites not medalling).

    I like Ashley and adore all her programs this year; I do worry about tempting fate; that's all. :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2012
  30. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    We're within 100 posts of thread #7! I think we should call it swagner or something. Nothing about gold/Gold! :p