Top 5 at Olympics in pairs, ladies and men if all skate cleanly

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by ohashibiles, Aug 22, 2013.

  1. julieann

    julieann Well-Known Member

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    Who is the other Chinese team that can crack the top seven from worlds last year? P/T aren't a lock on the bronze if the even can compete at all given his injuries.
     
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I didnt say Pang & Tong were a lock for bronze by any stretch. I just consider them one of a bunch of teams in contention for it, especialy in a proposed all clean competition (lets face it, Pang & Tong are unlikely to skate clean, but if they did they would post a score atleast competitive with all but V&T and S&S). As for the other, well you are right there probably isnt another, but I was just thinking in the unlikely event He-Man Zhang and his new partner improved alot in the off season. I do think they have alot of potential but probably wont happen in the next year.
     
  3. ChelleC

    ChelleC Well-Known Member

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    In what world does a clean Plushenko beat a clean Takahashi? Daisuke would have the edge on PCS, if everything is scored correctly.
     
  4. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    I'm sorry... what?! this is one of the most riddiculous and ignorant statements about ice dancing I've seen lately. Agreed that there are no jumps and less "risk elements", but for heaven's sake, do you have any idea how hard it is to skate a dance program cleanly? When every freakin' step counts, every edge (in the compulsory section at least)? Then you have the twizzles, very easy to mess up, the pair spin, the lifts. No risk elements? Jumps aren't the only risk elements in figure skating.

    Anyways, if everyone is clean, the golds will go to Chan, Kim and V/T. Luckily, everyone is never clean and that's the beauty of it ;)
     
  5. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    It's not as if the rest of his/her post was clever. ;)
     
  6. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    Men:

    Any of Patrick Chan, Daisuke Takahashi, Javier Fernandez, Yuzuru Hanyu, Takahiko Kozuka, Denis Ten, Evgeni Plushenko, and Jeremy Abbott could round out the top 5 if clean.

    Ladies:

    Any of Yu-Na Kim, Carolina Kostner, Mao Asada, Ashley Wagner, Akiko Suzuki, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, and Adelina Sotnikova could round out the top 5 if clean.

    Pairs:

    Any of Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Kavaguti/Smirnov, Duhamel/Radford, Bazarova/Larionov, and Moore-Towers/Moscovitch could round out the top 5 if clean.
     
  7. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    A clean Gold has much more chance of top 5 than a clean Suzuki, especialy in a really well skated event. In a perfectly skated event by all Suzuki would never be top 5 at this point actually, despite that I do really like her and her skating. Maybe if the Games were in Nagano or Tokyo that would be possible.

    Jeremy Abbott would also never top 5 in a cleanly skated event at this point.
     
  8. rickmercer

    rickmercer Member

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    If you did your research or followed skating more closely you would realize all big name skaters get decent PCS even when they bomb. In an Olympics (when the scores are always sky high) Kim could fall 2 times and stumble another 2 in a free skate and her PCS wouldnt dip below 62 probably. Chan can skate most of the program on his ass and still get loads of 9s for PCS, which isnt true of Kostner.

    Poor reasoning. You use an example of Kim from the 2011 Worlds and compare to 2013 examples for Kostner. Why choose to do this, oh yeah it is the only way you can indirectly find something that looks good for Kostner in a scoring comparision. Everyone knows scores escalate throughout a quad, and using a 2011 example vs a 2013 example is stupid.

    Why not instead compare Kim's PCS to Kostner PCS at the 2011 Worlds itself where Kostner had the cleaner and more inspiring free skate performance and got much lower PCS than Kim who had the highest PCS of anyone despite one of her worst performances. Why not use 2010 Worlds where Kim was awful in both short and long for her standards, perhaps her worst competition ever, and still beat a quite decent/good Kostner (as far as performance and cleanliness, not counting her stupid COP layouts which cost her technical points and the bronze medal) in PCS in both quite comfortably, and was even given much higher PCS than a very clean and excellent Asada.

    Kostner and Kim have competed against each other in probably atleast 20 programs and Kostner has only gotten higher PCS in one ever that I know of, the SP of the 2013 Worlds. That includes the odd program Kostner had similar or lesser mistakes than Kim.


    The reason Kostner wouldnt beat a clean Kim is she cant get ahead in anything. She might come close in GOE, PCS, and now with her lutz and triple-triple back base value, but she wouldnt actually be ahead in any. So there is no place she would get ahead. If Kim is getting loads of +3s in GOE and lots of mid to high 9s (and some 10s) in PCS like Worlds only someone with more difficulty can beat her. That isnt Kostner. Maybe Mao if by some miracle she did her layout from hell cleanly I could see someone thinking, even if I wouldnt agree I could understand the logic.



    One just has to look at Kim and Kostner's whole careers and it is obvious not only who is more consistent but who generally has more scoring potential. Kostner isnt the answer to either of those questions, although I will admit in scoring potential she is atleast much closer than in consistency.


    Here are some videos of Kostner vs Kim over the years:

    Kostner's gorgeous and perfect SP at 2007 Worlds:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XX1kxQLMsw

    Kim's gorgeous and flawless SP at same event with same jumps, which scored 4 points higher:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FmncaNGLOI

    Kim's flawed LPs at 2010 and 2011 Worlds which
    still easily beat Kostner's closer to clean performances overall and more importantly in PCS:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4n-LGvSTiE
    Kim 2010 Worlds

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=115JqhlfRVM
    Kim 2011 Worlds

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49l915RUHPY
    Kostner 2010 Worlds

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEHzfiygvtU
    Kostner 2011 Worlds


    Kostner at 2008 Grand Prix final skating similar with about same amount of mistakes than Kim :

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKIa_CXuuGo
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8k7j_gPrSqU
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRPy_uvdDMk
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYDvQ28JibE


    I could add the 2010 Olympics for the simple reason as even a clean Kostner couldnt skate nor score like that ever, but anyway I think it already more than made the point.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2013
    l'etoile and (deleted member) like this.
  9. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Member

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    Sotnikova and Gold could beat a clean Yu Na Kim if Asada and Kostner havent already beaten Kim, and Kim still gets a medal. The judges would never allow a clean Yu Na Kim to not medal though, so in a case all skated cleanly atleast 2 of Asada, Kostner, Sotnikova, and Gold would be placed lower to make sure of a medal for Kim.

    A clean Chan would not be allowed to not medal so atleast 1 of a clean Takahashi, clean Hanyu, or clean Fernandez would be placed below him to ensure a medal atleast for clean Chan.

    The German pair would beat the top Russian pair if both skate cleanly. The 2012 Grand Final proves that. Even with inflated PCS for the Russians, they skated cleanly and still lost to the Germans with mistakes. Lucky for Tatiana and Maxim the Germans almost never skate cleanly, and rarely come close so top Russians will probably win Olympic Games.
     
  10. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    :confused:
     
  11. Jiazumi

    Jiazumi Active Member

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    :lol::eek::eek::lol::rolleyes:

    You people never fail to amuse me.

    Oh and send me some of that stuff you're smoking btw. I want to see how stupid I can get, too! :hat1: hahaha
     
  12. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Member

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    I didnt say they would beat clean Kim. Just that if no other skaters have beaten Kim they might be able to. The judges would not put Kim off medals even if all skate perfectly, but they might let 1 or 2 skaters beat her (with various possabilities to who those are).
     
  13. Jiazumi

    Jiazumi Active Member

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    You're right. You didn't say that they would beat a clean Kim, you said they could which is just as ridiculous. Do you really think that Sotnikova and Gold could beat a clean Kim? In what? PCS or TES?

    Wow I didn't think you were serious when you said that...:eek:
     
  14. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Member

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    Sotnikova can do 3-3s like Kim. She does have 7 triples planned and she does all 5 triples, so that is an advantage she has over Kim. The rules have changed and were on purpose to help Asada and hurt Kim (which hasnt been enough so far but that was the goal) and it removes Kim of her advantage of doing all kinds of combinations ending with a triple jump. Unfairly I think, I am not a Kim hater or anything. Sotnikova also can get huge GOE on her jumps, like Kim. Sotnikova might have better spins than Kim which can get a bit more GOE. OK I know Sotnikova has bunch of technical problems and probaly wont be clean but isnt this about an idea they all are, as unlikely as it is. I already said Sotnikova wont beat Kim if all are clean too, just if only she and Kim are clean, and few other top skaters are then she might.

    Then PCS well it would be harder for clean Sotnikova to beat clean Kim as TES, but we havent seen her with a program that shows off her artistic potential yet and if she gets it she might stay close enough to win out on TES for the reasons said above.


    Now Gold at her best could beat Kim on TES even more likely. 7 triples, all 5 triples unlike Kim, huge GOE, and definitely stronger spins. PCS well she improving fast and already gets generous for what she puts out so.
     
  15. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    ^ This post is just weird. I love Adelina, but no, she's not beating Yuna any time soon. If she was clean, I agree her scores would be huge and might crack 200+, but Yuna would have to make a lot of mistakes to loose to that... the same for Gracie.

    Especially that they've taken out the spiral sequence! Mao's ugly spirals never got her any points after all! :rofl:
     
  16. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    I totally agree with Lahaa968.

    If Carolina skates a clean, 7-triple performance, she'll give a clean Yu-Na a run for her money.

    Let's not forget she's the only real European contender skating at an Olympics in Europe. She's also a bit of a sentimental favorite given her terrible previous outings at the Games, and her longevity in the sport.

    On top of that, no one can deny her excellent skating skills and musicality. After her Worlds win, I can see the judges pushing her PCS into the 8.5 or higher.

    As for the whole 8-triple program, Jessica is correct. All six triples would have to be attempted, with two repeated.

    I can only think of four, possibly five ladies (if you include Midori) that credibly planned 8-triple programs.

    Midori Ito at 1992 Olympics: 3Lz+3T, 3A+3T (arguably), 3F+2T, 3Lo, 3A, 3S, 2A

    Yoshie Onda at 2002 Worlds (probably in 2003, too): 3A, 3L, 3F, 3S, 3Lo, 3L+2T, 3T+3T+SEQ (kinda), 2A, 2A https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-q7FV2C-tCQ

    Ludmila Nelidina at 2003 Skate America: 3A, 3Lz+3T (doubled in the program), 3Lo, 3S, 3F, 3L, 2A+3T+SEQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agL2rhb6G_o

    Kimmie Meissner at 2005 Nationals: 3F, 3Lz+3T (doubled in the program), 3A, 3Lo, 3S, 3Lz, 3F+2T+2Lo

    Mao Asada at 2013 4CC: 3Lo, 3A, 3F+3Lo, 3Lz, 2A+3T, 3S (doubled), 3F+2Lo+2Lo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3zf0D3M1sk

    I'm pretty sure Yukari Nakano was trying 8-triple programs with either 3Lz+3T and/or 3F+3Lo combinations at some point circa 2002-3 too.
     
  17. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    We know Yu Na skating cleanly at the Games will probably get 150+ in the LP and 75+ in the SP. The question is would a clean Kostner or clean Asada be able to get similar to that or higher? I somewhat doubt it, maybe the 75+ SP for Asada now that she is trying both a triple axel and 3-3 in the short, but not Kostner doing only a triple toe-triple toe. In the LP I doubt either of them getting in the 150+ territory even if they went clean. Unfortunately Kostner and Asada are unlikely to skate cleanly anyway, so we probably wont ever find out the answer for sure, and it will remain speculative.
     
  18. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Member

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    Well around 2010 a clean Mao would have no chance vs a clean Kim. Yet now people are saying it would be very close if both skated cleanly. What has changed if it isnt the rules. Kim like she skated at Worlds is no weaker than Vancouver, and Mao doesnt appear to be a better skater now than she was then either.

    As for the spirals Kim and Mao typically got the same points on that so that doesnt even make any difference. At most on rare occasion Mao might gain half a point more, big de whoop. While all the other new rules (eg- more points for triple axel, allowed both triple axel and triple-triple in short, greatly devaluing GOE points on jumps where Mao will always be way beneath Kim and several others but now loses less marks, not allowing double axel-triple toe) were clearly designed to boost Mao's chances and diminish some others, especialy Kim.


    Now back to Sotnikova and possibly Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaia you people are also forgetting the factor of home ice scoring. A person going clean on home ice will probably get 10 points or more than they would somewhere else. Like for instance it is obvious at Worlds by the scores a clean Osmond would have beaten a clean Gold and clean Sotnikova at Worlds but that probably wouldnt ever happen in neutral territory. The Russians are better at politics than Canadians so that will probably be even more true on Russian home ice. Also these are young skaters, along with Gold, who might improve alot in a year. So one shouldnt assume their 2013 hypothetical best would be the same as their 2014 one.
     
  19. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    More what I FEAR; not just what I think will happen.

    Ladies:

    1. Kim
    2. Asada
    3. Sotnikova
    4. Murakami
    5. Gold

    Men:

    1. Plushenko ("the best of home cooking" is the real title of the program)
    2. Fernandez
    3. Chan
    4. Takahashi
    5. Lysacek

    Pairs:

    1. Volosozhar/Trankov
    2. Savchenko/Szolkowy
    3. Bazarova/Larionov
    5. Kavaguti/Smirnov
    5. Duhamel/Radford

    Dance:

    1. Stepanova/Bukin (IMO, they'll be the huge 'scandal surprise' of the year)
    2. Davis/White (a controversial 2nd...thanks to Russian home cooking)
    3. Ilynikh/Kats....
    4. Virtue/Moir
    5. Bobrova/Soloviev
     
  20. barbk

    barbk Well-Known Member

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    I think the username "KwanandKimOverrated" is still available. KwanKimandChanAllOverrated might be too long, but maybe you'll get lucky. Hey, with that you wouldn't even need to put anything in the post since your username says it all!
     
  21. kwanoverrated

    kwanoverrated Member

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    So just because I dont think a clean Kim is guaranteed to win every event by 25-30 points anymore means I am a Kim hater now? What nonsense. I voted for Kim is the best skater ever poll, I have highly praised her in many threads. Funny thing is I was called a Kim uber a few months ago and now I am supposably a Kim hater. I guess for extreme fans if you either dont kiss ass nonstop or kick ass nonstop it is never good enough.

    Worlds this year showed a clean Kim is not as unbeatable as she once was if others skated clean. Now the others all have consistency problems so 95% likely Kim will win her 2nd Olympic Gold and 3rd World gold easily next year. I dont deny that. However in a thread about everyone doing clean this years Worlds showed in that unlikely hypothetical she would have much more problems than in the past. Kostner had an easier jump combo and fell and still was less than 3 points back of her of the short. Had she landed it she would have win the short over Kim even with an easier combo and Kim going clean. Then the LP she skated a clean LP like Vancouver but gets lower points.

    Maybe she would win if all went clean, and I agree concede she medals. I did think Kostner, Asada, Gold, Sotnikova could all have a chance vs a clean Kim if all go clean, but if all 5 go clean, the judges make sure only 2 at most beat Kim so she atleast gets a medal. I just dont think clean Kim is way ahead of others if they ever skated skated clean to (which almost certainly wont anyway) like she used to be. Recent signs and scores show this too. It doesnt mean I hate Kim.
     
  22. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Skaters like Gold and Sotnikova have absolutely no chance against a clean Kim no matter how they skate.
     
  23. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Member

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    She attempted 2+6=8 triples in 2010, she attempts 3+8=11 triples now. That's 3 triples more overall. Start with that.
     
  24. rickmercer

    rickmercer Member

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    The ladies is the hardest to say. There are 12-15 contenders and if all skated cleanly they could all come in almost any order, and if they all made mistakes they could also all come in almost any order. The only way it is obvious is if someone skated clean like Kim at the 2013 Worlds and the others don't.