Top 5 at Olympics in pairs, ladies and men if all skate cleanly

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by ohashibiles, Aug 22, 2013.

  1. ohashibiles

    ohashibiles Active Member

    102
    27
    28
    What would happen at the Olympics if everyone was clean. Don't count dance since everyone always skates cleanly in dance, no risk elements, and it just depends on what the judges think at the time. My guesses would be are:

    Ladies:

    Gold- Kostner
    Silver- Asada
    Bronze- Sotnikova
    4th- Gold
    5th- Kim


    Men:

    Gold- Takahashi
    Silver- Fernandez
    Bronze- Hanyu
    4th- Chan
    5th- Reynolds


    Pairs:

    Gold- #1 Russians
    Silver- #1 Canadians
    Bronze- Germans
    4th- Pang & tong
    5th- Americans or #2 Canadians


    We know it isn't likely everyone skates clean so Kim will probably win capatilizing on others mistakes as always. Chan who is less inconsistent than the other men will probably win by that, despite not being totally consistent himself. #1 Canadian pair likely to make enough mistakes to let Russians and Germans atleast beat them, despite that they would win atleast silver and maybe gold if all were clean.

    What do you think top 5 in all events but dance would be if all were clean though. Suspend reality as we know that probably wont happen, just for fun what would happen if that happened.
     
  2. ohashibiles

    ohashibiles Active Member

    102
    27
    28
    I was not sure on bronze between Sotnkikova and Gold, and gold between Asada and Kostner if all are clean. That was both tough calls. It would be Kostner's GOE and PCS vs Mao's base value. Gold's TES vs Sotnikova's PCS.

    For men I went with Takahashi's PCS over Fernandez's base value and Hanyu's GOEs.
     
  3. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

    10,665
    352
    83
    Sotnikova and Gold beating Kim? Ummm okay. Chan in 4th is even more absurd, the lowest he could be is 3rd and if he's clean no way would he be even that low.

    Ladies:

    1.) Kim
    2.) Kostner
    3.) Asada
    4.) Suzuki
    5.) Wagner

    Men:

    1.) Chan
    2.) Hanyu
    3.) Takahashi
    4.) Fernandez
    5.) Abbott
     
  4. karlon

    karlon New Member

    163
    12
    0
    chan is less inconsistency than the other man...? chan is nothing good in terms of "consistency". This is the greatest weakness of him
    if I should pick a skater who is the least inconsistency in the mens field now, Although all of the mens can not be considered "consistent", I would say it is fernandez
     
  5. walei

    walei Well-Known Member

    1,330
    141
    63
    Ladies

    1) Asada
    2) Kim
    3) Kostner
    4) Wagner
    5) Suzuki

    If the requirement is clean, then I would think Asada with a clean 3A and all other jumps would push her over the edge with a sentimental PCS boost to beat Kim's 3Z-3T. 3~5 are just random guesses.

    Men

    1) Chan
    2) Takahashi
    3) Hanyu
    4) Fernandez
    5) Kozuka

    No way in the universe a clean Chan with 4T-3T, 4T, 3A, and his PCS would put him 4th. Chan is inconsistent and that's his biggest problem but this thread is about if they all skate clean. Takahashi's PCS would put him over the rest and I do think Kozuka is in the top 5 or even beating Fernandez.

    Pairs

    1) V/T
    2) S/S
    3) D/R
    4) P/T
    5) B/L

    I may put S/S over V/T if they have throw 3A, but I think it's hard for any team to beat V/T if they are clean. D/R's high technical content would put them solidly on the podium over other teams behind them but not V/T and S/S.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2013
  6. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

    1,592
    155
    0
    1. Chan: High BV, highest GOE and PCS
    2. Takahashi
    3. Fernandez: highest base value and slightly stronger PCS
    4. Hanyu
    5. Tough one. Reynolds has high BV and clean would score higher-than-merited PCS. A clean Kozuka would still be an underscored Kozuka. Ditto Joubert. Probably Plushenko.

    1. Asada (Clean with the triple axels)
    1. Kostner (Asada without the triple axels)
    2. Kim
    3. Asada (without the triple axels)
    4. Wagner
    5. Korpi (she attempts seven triples and her PCS would be high)

    1. V/T
    2. S/S (very close with the 3A, but V/T would win on GOE and BV)
    3. D/R (Base value, base value, base value)
    4. P/T
    5. B/L
     
  7. Jaana

    Jaana Well-Known Member

    3,884
    168
    63
    If they all skate clean (and Evan will not be competing)

    1. Chan
    2. Fernandez
    3. Takahashi
    4. Hanyu
    5. Plushenko

    but this is a very unlikely scenario. When is the last time Chan has skated clean? And that is not going to happen at the Olympics, unless he starts to use the services of a good jumping coach.
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2013
  8. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

    4,373
    918
    113
    I've decided not to make predictions just yet, so as not to jinx my favorites. :)
     
  9. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

    1,627
    134
    63
    :eek: :rofl:
     
  10. robinhood

    robinhood Active Member

    712
    68
    28
    that's not going to happen,so...
     
  11. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Active Member

    101
    32
    28
    Ladies:

    1.) Asada - as I think her huge BV + the judges being excited about the first 8-triples FS from any lady in history would be enough.
    2.) Kim - huge BV and PCS, but...
    3.) Kostner - I think it would be verv close between Kostner and Kim. Maybe Kostner could even edge out the silver, but it's hard to say.
    4.) Suzuki - because I'm optimistic *cough*
    5.) Gold/Sotnikova - not sure who'd score higher out of these two, but I think they have the content and skills to really score well.

    Ashley might also be a possibility, if she get's the 3-3 and the 2A-3T.

    Men:

    1.) Chan - although I'm not as sure about it as a lot of other poeple, I guess. His BV is less than Takahashi, Hanyu, Fernandez and others; his PCS aren't that much higher than Takahashi anymore, and his GOE get matched by Hanyus. Maybe, if the others get better programs or work on their skills over the off-season, clean Chan would not be unbeatable anymore.
    2.) Fernandez - especially if he does two quads in his SP. He has the highest LP score from last season and even if you look at all the best done elements from the whole season, his LP is still the strongest.
    3.) Takahashi - it's very, very close though between him and...
    4.) Hanyu - who has the higher TES compared to Takahashis higher PCS. Maybe it will come down to who has the better programs.
    5.) Kozuka - he does two 4T's and two 3A's so his BV is high, and he can garner very good GOE.

    Plushenko is obviously a possibility too, but I just don't know what to expect from him at all...
     
  12. HVS

    HVS Active Member

    204
    29
    28
    Just say you hate Yuna, that's okay :rofl: :lol:
     
  13. kosjenka

    kosjenka Well-Known Member

    2,934
    1,145
    113
    I am having what you are having!
    :rofl:
     
  14. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

    181
    48
    28
    :huh: Surya Bonaly, 1995 Worlds FS. 8 Triples. It's been done already. And I'm sure Slutskaya pulled off an 8 triple long at a random GP event that I can't think of.

    Ladies:

    1. Kim (Consistent, Big GOE accumulator across the board, Big PCS, and reigning OC)
    2/3. Asada or Kostner. I couldn't decide here. I'm 900% sure Kostner would get a higher PCS score, but if Asada pulls out 8 clean triples with full rotations I do wonder how Carolina can compare on her technical score. That said, had she skated clean at 2013 Worlds, Kostner would've scored ~70 TES, while Mao has to really hassle and bring it all out to get near 70 (last time was at 2011 4CC, IIRC).
    4. Wagner (Great overall skater, but just not at the level of the Kostner, Kim or Asada.
    5. Tuktamysheva (I feel like she's gonna bring a big show for her home crowd, but again maybe not at the level of the other ladies)

    Men:

    1. Chan
    2. Takahashi
    3. Fernandez
    4. Abbott
    5. Ten

    Dance:

    1. Davis/White
    2. Virtue/Moir
    3. Pechalat/Bourzat
    4. Bobrova/Soloviev
    5. Weaver/Poje

    Pairs:

    1. Voloshozar/Trankov
    2. Savchenko/Solkowy
    3. Duhamel/Radford
    4. Moors-Tower/Moscovitch
    5. Kavaguti-Smirnov :blocjudge:blocjudge
     
    l'etoile and (deleted member) like this.
  15. karlon

    karlon New Member

    163
    12
    0
    In my opinion,
    between carolina kostner and yuna kim
    Base Value ~ kim has a bit higher BV than kostner
    GOE~ kim should get more goe than kostner
    PCS ~ I think kim's would be slightly(1 or 2) higher than kostner if two are clean
    So, I think kim would beat kostner

    kostner would lose in BV, GOE=TES. The only way kostner can beat kim is kostner gets much(4~5?) higher PCS than kim
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2013
  16. falling_dance

    falling_dance D. Murakami's Newest Fan

    23,582
    4,467
    113
    Bonaly's FS jumps at 1995 Worlds:
    3z2t
    2a-2a (seq.)
    3r
    3f3t
    split-3t-3s (seq.)
    3z

    Impressive, but that's seven, not eight. I don't think Slutskaya ever managed an eight-triple free skate, either.
     
  17. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Active Member

    101
    32
    28
    Yes :) Midori Ito attempted an 8-triple FS once, I think, but sadly popped one of her jumps.

    That is what I feel is so difficult to say. Yes, Yunas BV is higher, but not by that much. And from the way those two were scored at worlds, I'd actually say Kostner would win the PCS (and honestly, I think that if she's clean, Kostner deserves the highest PCS overall). GOE will be very close too, Kostner jumps do have nice qualities, and her spins and steps are very good too. It would be so exciting to see this happening! :rollin:

    No way clean Hanyu wouldn't beat clean Ten (and Abbott, albeit that's a little more debatable).
     
  18. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

    181
    48
    28
    There was a second triple salchow, so that makes 8 total. :COP:
     
  19. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

    181
    48
    28
    Stop. My mind might explode. Carolina winning an OGM would make me have a panic attack of joy. :swoon::gallopin1:inavoid::cheer2:

    I forgot Hanyu (oopz...) he's a contender when he's on, but sometimes I wonder if he's too hungry. And stamina is an issue. He's very inconsistent. In a perfect world, where J. Abbott would have perfect skates at the OG, I would love to see him on the podium. The judges love him, they will shower him with high PCS and GOE...but it hasn't happened yet! (That performance, internationally).

    Truthfully though, there are like 8 men who could make their way to the podium at the OG...maybe more around 6 based on consistency and reputation. But we all know not ALL of them will have breakthrough skates. It happens once every millennium, and the Lu Chen vs. MK @ 1996 Worlds already happened so I wouldn't count on this event being similar. I think it would take a catastrophic, and I mean two falls in the short and five falls in the long, for Chan to not be on the podium. Daisuke and Abbott will be rewarded very well if they deliver I think. If Hanyu and Fernandez can deliver complete programs with all their quads and all, it will be hard for them to be booted off the podium just on the TES alone. Agh. Can we just be put in frozen deep-sleep or something so we don't have to wait so long and see?

    I do think we will have a surprise podium though. It always happens. Look at Daisuke in 2010 (after all his injury), Ten (2013WC), Hanyu (2012WC), Kozuka (2011WC).
     
  20. falling_dance

    falling_dance D. Murakami's Newest Fan

    23,582
    4,467
    113
    Not that I can see. :shuffle:
     
  21. rickmercer

    rickmercer Active Member

    118
    30
    28
    Predictions if everyone skates cleanly (which will never happen:

    Ladies-

    1. Kim- 75+ points short program, 150+ points long program. Out of reach for all others even if clean.
    2. Kostner or Asada. Cant decide who would come out ahead here. Mao's base value is much higher but GOE and PCS would be both lower.
    4. Don't know, about 10 women could come 4th if everyone skates perfectly.


    Men:

    1. Fernandez- he is improving and by next year will be unbeatable if clean. He already has the highest base value but his GOE and PCS will improve rapidly too.

    2. Hanyu

    3. Chan- after scandals of last year marks will be lower even for clean skate, and tons lower for mistakes.

    4. Takahashi

    5. Don't know, about 6 different men could finish here if all clean.


    Pairs:

    1. Voloshar Trankov
    2. Savchenko & Szolkowy
    3. Barazova & Larinov- in Russia will be given medal for sure if clean, no matter what others do.
    4. Pang & Tong
    5. Canadian team



    My actual predictions, no longer a stupid all clean fantasy:

    Women:

    1. Kim- she would win even if all are clean and the others wont be clean and she will so of course same result, just even more lopsided now.
    2. kostner- will probably make serious mistakes, but not as much as Mao.
    3. Wagner
    4. Asada- she is attempting a program that is beyond her abilities and she has no chance of skating cleanly and even a good skate for her is 2 or 3 mistakes.
    5. Gold or Osmond


    Pairs:

    Same gold and silver. Bronze to Dumahel & Radfordzzzz since they are consistent and will take advantage of mistakes.


    Men:

    1. Fernandez
    2. Takahashi
    3. Hanyu- will mess up
    4. U.S man, probably Aaron
    5. Chan- will mess up, even a good skate for him is like 3 mistakes these days.
     
  22. rickmercer

    rickmercer Active Member

    118
    30
    28
    Those who think a clean Kostner could ever beat a clean Kim are smoking some funny stuff. Kostner wouldn't win in any area now if both are clean- GOE, PCS, base value. The only reason she got similar PCS last year was being reigning World Champion, but that wont happen this year. Plus it was only in the short program where Kim had a super boring routine performed like a zombie, and skating in one of the weenie flights. Atleast Asada I can somewhat see ones thinking based on her base value, even though I totally disagree, and am not even sure she would beat a clean Kostner.

    Sotnikova wouldn't be top 5 if all are clean. Ugly jumps, boring presentation, weird music, terrible flutz and flip technique.
     
  23. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

    26,863
    4,050
    113
    My predictions- although it's impossible that everyone would skate clean

    Ladies:

    1.Kim
    2.Kostner
    3.Tuktamysheva (if she makes the Olympic team)
    4.Asada
    5.Sotnikova

    Men:

    1.Chan (a clean Chan is unbeatable)
    2.Fernandez (his 3 quads will beat 2-quad programs)
    3.Plushenko
    4.Hanyu
    5.Takahashi

    Pairs:

    1.V&T
    2.S&S
    3. B&L
    4.P&T
    5.D&R

    Ice dance:

    1.D&S
    2.V&M
    3.Bobrova-Soloviev or I&K- whoever has better programs
    4.I&K or B&S
    5.P&B
     
  24. rickmercer

    rickmercer Active Member

    118
    30
    28
    You think Tuktamysheva would beat asada if both go clean? Or that is you prediction based on how you think they would skate (and we all know Mao isn't doing what she plans clean in a million years).
     
  25. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

    26,863
    4,050
    113
    Tuk has a strong 3lutz-3t combination. Asada does not do the lutz. Her 3A-2t is awesome combination but not enough (in points) to overcome Tuk's strong jumps. I love Asada, but it's hard to imagine her doing a completely clean program without ur or edge calls. I know this thread is only hypothetical, but Tuk's strong jumping technique and improved artistry may just give her the edge on home ice (Bronze for Russia, in a close competition). Her biggest obstacle is domestic- she has to skate well the whole season to make the team.
     
  26. Jessica

    Jessica Active Member

    527
    54
    28
    According to the rules, you cannot repeat more than 2 triple jumps in a program. The only way you can have an 8 triple program is to have a triple axel. Neither Bonaly nor Slutskaya had one.
     
  27. Li'Kitsu

    Li'Kitsu Active Member

    101
    32
    28
    Huh? Are you talking about 2010 maybe?
    Asada flutzes, but this is still "doing" a lutz (albeit a flawed one) and that counts for points under this system. She doesn't have to do any 3A-2T either anymore but goes for a single 3A in the SP and the LP. Considering she skates clean, it would even mean she did a 3F-3Lo, which I think is no easier combo than the 3Lz3T due to the 3Lo at the end. I like Tuktamysheva, but if Asada is clean, there's no way Tuk would beat her on the jumps.
    And then there are other things than jumps... Tuk won't even come close to Asada on steps, spins and PCS.
    Even if you think Tuk is more likely to be clean - Asada doesn't need to be clean to beat her. What were Tuk's highest scores last season? 131+ in the LP at Euros... but the SP? It was 58+ at TEB with a flawed 3T3T and a 3Lz - even with 3Lz3T it won't be that much higher (Lipnitskaya with better spins is around 63+). Combined, that's about 194. Asada scored 196+ at worlds with a flawed LP and a pretty bad SP which is still higher. She also had 3 Jumps URed and one popped at 4CC and still got a 205.45.

    Skating decently, the Big 3 will be the ones to get the medals. I don't think any other skater has a shot to overtake them then.
     
  28. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

    1,542
    215
    63
    Let's see, if everyone skates their programs with clean double jumps, ...

    Having thoroughly rejected the word "clean" as completely meaningless (see "What's your definition of a "clean" program?" thread) I am going to instead address "if everyone skates the planned choreography with all the hoped for levels and positive GOE" what would the results be.

    Since Patrick Chan has shown he can win with multiple errors, I don't see any way he wouldn't also win if he landed everything. Next would be Takahashi, since the only thing limiting his results to date has been his jumping errors and we are assuming there will be no jump errors by anyone. The wildcards here are Lysacek and Plushenko, since we don't know yet, realistically, what jumps they will be capable of doing by next February. Assuming they both include quads (which they both talk about doing), I think they would be battling for bronze. Lysacek was already beating Plushenko in PCS when they last competed, and I think his dance work with improve on that, so my podium is 1-Chan, 2-Takahashi, 3-Lysacek.

    Ladies - The "land everything they hope to land" assumption gives Asada triple axels in both programs (maybe 2 in the fs?), so I think she would win in this scenario. I can't see Kim dropping worse than 2nd (although she should because she is hugely overmarked on some PCS). Since Kostner is now doing 5 different triples and will no doubt plan to include 3F-3T, I'd put her third.

    I find I just can't get into thinking about pairs, as I think the current crop all kind of suck. Since Savcheko/S suck mainly because of their element errors and we are assuming no errors, then that would give them gold. The rest of the candidates are not worthy of an Olympic podium so I can't even think about 2nd and 3rd.
     
  29. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

    13,704
    787
    113
    Why speculate on a clean competition since it will never happen. However just for the heck of it if everyone is clean the results would go:

    Ladies

    Gold-Kim: I would say Kim, Asada, and Kostner all skating cleanly she is only 55-60% likely to win vs the 85-90% likely she is to win in reality forgetting the all clean scenario. Still I think that would be the most likely outcome even if all were to be clean, although not as much the near lock as how they are likely to all skate.

    Silver- Asada: She has no chance to skate her current programs clean, which is why I dont think she will do any better than bronze unless Kostner bombs, and could even easily fall off the podium. However as it specified all clean I am guessing she would end up 2nd in that never going to happen scenario, although could end up 1st or 3rd as well possibly.

    Bronze- Kostner: Not sure how she would overtake a clean Kim even skating cleanly, and Asada's difficulty would make it a big challenge for Kostner to overtake her too in the fantasy idea Mao skated cleanly.



    Men:

    Gold- Takahashi: At the Grand Prix final he made as many errors as Chan and won when Chan was 4th so I think he could even beat a clean Chan if he were to skate clean himself. Especialy with the negative buzz surrounding Chan now. Sadly almost no chance of Takahashi skating cleanly these days though.

    Silver- Chan: Judges give him gold with 10 falls so of course clean he wins gold or silver. I think he is going to be off the podium in Sochi at this point, but that is because we all know he is going to be far from clean. In reality the all clean results of the mens event are going to be far apart from the real results probably.

    Bronze- Fernandez: I think with his base value it would be hard for him not to win atleast bronze skating cleanly, despite that Hanyu gets very high GOE and high marks all around from the judges. I think in an all clean competition Fernandez would win the long program but be only 4th in the short (at best) well behind Chan, Hanyu, and Takahashi, so it depends the gap in the short in this case.


    As for Plushenko and Lysacek I suspect they would only be about 7th or 8th in an all clean competition. Plushenko in decent health is more likely to skate cleanly than anyone so could be as high as 4th or 5th despite that though. I dont see Evan even at the Games, but if he is somehow I expect alot of mistakes from him, especialy if he attempts a quad, and likely to come something like 12th.



    Pairs- nothing to talk about. Likely results and all clean results are one and the same. Russians easy winners, Germans pretty easy second, bronze a crapshoot amongst a bunch of teams and whoever skates best among 1 or 2 Canadian, 1 or 2 other Russian, 1 or 2 Chinese team that day.

    Dance- nothing to talk about. Davis & White vs Virtue & Moir, if both skate cleanly as probably will depends on judges preference and programs, and possible for one to make a small mistake and beat the other clean even depending on that too. One makes a big mistake, very unlikely, that team autmoatically bumped to silver. Bronze a crapshoot just like pairs, and comes down to 3 or 4 teams and how they are scored that day.
     
  30. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

    181
    48
    28
    Your expressions are pretty inappropriate, child. :rolleyes:

    If you do you research, Kostner has always been well rewarded by judges, even with her most dire skates (she received ~58 in PCS for her disastrous 2010 OG FP). Now that in the last three years, she has finally begun to reach the greatness everyone saw in her when she first appeared, and judges are rewarding her even more. She is now a premier artistic skater by the judges standards.

    At the 2013 Worlds, Carolina's FP received 131.03 for a five-triple program with a popped 3R and a fall on a 3S. Her PCS were of around 70.8~, and all her components ranged (with the exception of transitions) around the high 8's (8.89 and such) and even 9.04 for IN. Keep in mind, that was for a performance with mistakes. On the other hand, when Kim makes mistakes, her PCS can float all the way between ~66 (2011WC) and 69 (~2012NRW).

    To top that off, when Carolina lands the jumps, she scores massive GOE, in the same ballpark as Kim. She has all her triples back now, and her 3Lz at 2013WC received +1.60GOE; by my calculation that means she received all +2's and a couple +3's for the jump. Also like Kim, Kostner is a skater who receives strong GOE for easier jumps as well. She scores many +2's for her 2A's, 3T's, and 3S's, just like Kim. Also like Kim, Kostner receives great GOE for her footwork (probably the best in the business) and spins, not to mention the levels.

    All that being said, if Kostner delivers a clean, complete performance, with 7 triples as she planned last season, I most definitely think she will be in the mix versus Kim for the OGM.

    Now, all facts aside, we all know Kostner can be a fragile competitor at times. Her consistency, focus and strength under pressure has increased positively in the last few years, but still, she's not the competitive machine that Kim is. That's what it all comes down to, I believe.