The Kings of Quad

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by umronnie, Jun 19, 2012.

  1. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    Definitely. But the comment was about the 77% being surprising and contrary to reality to Chan's detractors (who often complain of his messy performances and mistakes). I was just reminding everyone what the criteria are for success in this thread. This means that 23%, almost one quarter, of Chan's quad attempts are failures (not rotated, falls, or otherwise earning -3 GOE), and the 77% that he lands could include some pretty big mistakes as long as he stands and rotates them. I'd say that sounds consistent with my vision of Chan and his quad.

    ETA: I also don't think this poll counts pops as attempts (correct me if I'm wrong), so if we include the number of anticipated quads in Chan (or anyone else's) program that he didn't try to rotate four times, his success rate goes down more.

    To be fair to him though, this count does not include Nationals, and I think he typically skates cleaner there. Plushenko and Joubert must have over 100 quads if we include Nats, also.
     
  2. umronnie

    umronnie Well-Known Member

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    Falls are not restricted to quads. I think Chan messes up his 3A as often as he messes up a quad. He also has a fairly large number of random falls. There was another thread (something about Chan) where I checked the number of falls in several prominent skaters' programs and Chan way ahead of others. I don't remember what it was about and the spreadsheet is on my other computer. In any case, 77% is very respectable and we wouldn't expect anything less from our world champion.

    No, popped jumps (3T, 2T or 1T) were not considered quad attempts for the sake of this project. However, looking over the spreadsheet I can tell you that Chan "did not attempt a quad" once in the past two seasons - the SP at SC this fall. This certainly goes to his credit.

    Only ISU competitions count towards this project. For one thing, it is not always easy to get data for national competitions (maybe for Canda it's on line, but not necessarily other nations). For another, natioanl judges are sometimes more lenient on rotation and on GoE, so they shouldn't count (just as the scores don't count towards world records). It is not only Natioanls that weren't counted - there's Russian Cup competitions, French Masters and other local competitions which I did not consider.

    Something else to note - of the top 9 (still searching for #10) there are 6 European guys, 2 Canadiand and one Japanese. For all the dominance of Japanese men, only Hanyu (who is very young) and Takahashi (who is very experienced - any very good) have a reliable quad. No American skater on the list.
     
  3. screech

    screech Well-Known Member

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    Chan's quad is one of his better jumps, so I'm not too surprised at his success rate there. If we were looking at triple axels, however...
     
  4. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    I'd say all of his jumps are one of his best, except the 3Axel ;)
     
  5. Zemgirl

    Zemgirl Well-Known Member

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    Note that Joubert, Plushenko, Menshov, Voronov and Fernandez all have better success rates, as did the retired Alexei Yagudin and Timothy Goebel.
     
  6. screech

    screech Well-Known Member

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    But we also have to remember, Chan did not start attempting quads in his programs until the 10/11 season - just over 2 years. So to have done as many as he has, and so well, is quite spectacular.
     
  7. Zemgirl

    Zemgirl Well-Known Member

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    My point was that his success rate, well certainly impressive, isn't as high as as that of the older guys' - so while the quad may be one of his best jumps, the numbers still don't suggest that he's stronger in this regard than certain other skaters. Considering how long some of these men have been doing quads, I'd argue that's more impressive than Chan's numbers; as I wrote earlier, it would still be years for Chan to get anywhere near the numbers of Joubert and Plushenko - and Yagudin's too, although the latter had a relatively short career.

    Among the younger guys, Fernandez started doing quads in 2009-10, and his success rate is quite impressive. Since he has two quads that he can do fairly consistently, he should have an easier time adding to his total than Chan.
     
  8. Vagabond

    Vagabond Well-Known Member

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    Or step sequences.... :shuffle:
     
  9. screech

    screech Well-Known Member

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    The reason I pointed out that Chan has only been doing them for 2 years, is because the first few competitions, his success rate was (understandably) low. It's only been really consistent since Canadians 2011 (which isn't included in this rate). if you think that he's done 2 GP, GPF, Worlds, 4CC, and WTT, that's about 15-18 competitions (give or take) where he's landed almost 30 quads. I still see that as rather impressive.
     
  10. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    Plush has 105-106 quads
     
  11. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I remember the second free program, but I didn't remember that there weren't six skaters in every discipline. I actually miss the second free program thing since it was a chance to usually see the previous year's free program again, but I guess it was too tiring for the skaters.
     
  12. The Accordion

    The Accordion Well-Known Member

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    Plushenko's accomplishments in this sport are quite mind blowing really.

    His Terminator like ability to come back to Olympic competition is astounding. And that he is likely heading into his 4th Olympics with a very good chance of a medal is crazy.

    His strategy and determination in fighting through / skating through injuries is beyond inspiring, as are his competitive drive and his competitive nerves.

    And his owning the quad is - clearly - 2nd to none. Brian Joubert may be in the same ballpark for number of quads - but Plushenko was able to offer a much more complete package / more complete programs and win way way more times while doing about the same number of quads.

    I had the chance to see him at 2001 Worlds and at the 2010 Olympics and I am in awe of him as a skater, as an athlete and as a human. When I watch him skate t is with a deep respect and appreciation.

    However, for those who hold up these quad statistics (and even winning statistics for that matter) as if they are the be all and end all in determining the worth, success, and contribution of skaters - I would suggest you are missing a great deal of what is incredible about figure skating.

    For instance - there are those who sneer at Chan's measly quad numbers, or the fact that he didn't start quads until a few years ago - or scoff that he will come nowhere near Plushenko's numbers for quads before he retires. But for me, I am grateful to be able to see Chan's edge work and the quality and the attention to detail in all of his skating. His footwork is mind boggling to me and just beautiful to witness. If more quads is what had to be given up in order to have the rest of what he does, then as a fan I am happy with that! I have seen Patrick Chan skate live a number of times and it is breathtaking IMO. Even if what comes along with that are falls as he gets his programs, jumps, choreography, head together - I still wouldn't make any kind of trade.

    Takahashi will never come near Plushenko's quad total - but as much as I admire Plushenko - if I had to choose - I would choose to watch him over Plushenko any day. I have seen him skate live as well and it was a true joy - even when he wasn't skating his best. And if we could magically trade even just a bit of his wonderful performance ability or musicality for more quads or better consistency - I would never do it!

    Yagudin didn't skate as long as Plushenko - and therefore didn't win as much or land as many quads - but with way fewer competitive years under his belt -FOR ME- there is much more to remember and admire in his work than in Plushenko's.

    Of course, as always, everyone is entitled to an opinion. But perhaps those who INSIST that these numbers are any more than a part of the picture might consider there are other factors in one's greatness as a skater and there is no PERIOD about any one view or any one aspect.

    I know there are many many posters who take quads for what they are - one element - but others - - not so much.
     
  13. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    YMMV but I don't see anyone doing this. People are discussing quads exclusively in this thread because this thread is very clearly labeled as a discussion of quad success rates. I didn't see anyone saying "and btw, so and so is also the best skater because of his success rate." There are plenty of other threads/polls in this section of the forum for discussion of the best overall men's skater, where indeed, other accomplishments, skating skills, and artistry are discussed along with quad/jump success. If this were a thread about who has achieved the most level 4 spins, for example, I would not expect people to discuss who was the best jumper, nor would I expect people to discuss the other points of skating in here.
     
  14. Zemgirl

    Zemgirl Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. I think the main difference is that Plushenko is a much, much tougher competitor mentally, and thus considerably more consistent than Joubert.

    Nobody has done that in this thread. This is meant to be a fun comparison and topic based on a project umronnie has decided to take on. It is not a discussion of who's the greatest of all time. Don't turn it into another opportunity to lecture people about the greatness of Patrick Chan; in the context of quad jumps, there are skaters who have accomplished more. And don't go on a rant suggesting that people who make that observation are OMG haterz who only care about jumps. Nobody has said that. As cherub has pointed out to you, this thread is about quad jumps and that's all it is. The skaters with the most successful quads, based on the criteria umronnie explained, are Plushenko and Joubert. The skaters with a relatively large number of quads who have/had the best success rate are Voronov, Yagudin and Goebel. You can't seriously argue with those specific points, try as you might.

    This is not a thread about footwork, edgework, choreography, or why some people are fans of Patrick Chan. Go start one of those if that's what you wish to discuss.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2013
  15. umronnie

    umronnie Well-Known Member

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    This is definately not about who is the greatest skater of all times, or even the greatest at a certain time-point. This thread is about quad jumps and nothing but. I see nobody claiming that Konstantin Menshov is twice the skater Takahashi is because he has landed twice as many quads in his career.

    In fact, a few of the skaters on the top-10 (OK, top-9) list have never accomplished anything signifcant on world level (Menshov, Voronov) while other current skaters, not even on this list, have medaled at major competition - take Hanyu, with 15 quads to his name and his WR in the SP, or Amodio - former European champion, who beat #1 Joubert, #3 Menshov, #5 Frenandez and #7 Verner for the title, while accumulating only 6 successful quads in his career.

    I started this project when I read that Joubert and Plushenko had landed 100 quads in international competition. That number boggled my mind and I set out to find out whether the claim was true. I love the quad because it embodies the highest athletic achievment in my favorite sport (not necessarily skating achievement) and since my focus is on figure skating as a sport I am interested in athletic achievements. I think that the ISU should promote this - maybe check out the quad count against their official documentation (especially that for the pro-COP era) and do something to commermorate the event when either Joubert or Plushenko hits the 100 mark - simply because it highlights the athletic side of the sport.

    The next great achievement will be the first skater to land 5 quads in a competition - I am counting on Fernandez and Orser to come up with a 2-quad SP and a 3-quad LP. Wouldn't it be something if he did it in Sochi - like Asada and her 3 3As in Vancouver?
     
  16. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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  17. Eyre

    Eyre New Member

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    If one considering how short amount of the time and distance for the preparation of a quad jump in a program, Chan is certainly outstanding in his success rate compare with the old guys, including plushenko who needs long, long glide for the jump.;)

    I agree that Fernandez could easily surpass Chan.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2013
  18. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    That's a great idea! If not the ISU, then I hope the French or Russian federation does that. And maybe the Russians need to take a look at why they have guys who are on the all-time quad-jumpers list who have no international medals - is it that they land the quad consistently, but not other jumps? Or that they lack in non-jumping technical elements, or programs components? (Probably all of the above, but that conversation is not for this thread). I just think that breaking it down the way you have is really interesting, and there's lots of ways to play with this data that could be very helpful if the federations were paying attention.
     
  19. Zemgirl

    Zemgirl Well-Known Member

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    And first skater to land 3 quads in an Olympic program :)

    I'm certainly not going to sit through every quad attempt each guy has made with a timer to measure how long the setup was :scream:. That said, I'm not sure Chan's setup is that much shorter/more difficult than everyone else's. Also - IMO, the most important criteria for the success of a jump are rotation and landing (we can throw in correct technique, too, I guess). That's not to say I want to see jumps telegraphed, but if a skater needs an extra couple of seconds of setup to get a good quad, I have no problem with that.

    Since I'd rather not make this thread a debate on the merits of Patrick Chan's skating, let's leave it at that, okay?
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2013
  20. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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    If we were looking at just IJS quads, we could look at the scores for each attempt to see who got the best GOEs. But that effort would be complicated by the fact that both the base values for the quads and the values of the GOEs have changed over the years.

    Otherwise, if we're each looking at our own measures of quality -- setup, height, distance, air position, landing position, etc. -- we'll each have our own subjective opinions and there would be no way to quantify. Judges may be similarly subjective in their evaluation of GOEs, but their numbers are official and the average counts on the record.
     
  21. Eyre

    Eyre New Member

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    Agree ...when I've finished what I have to say about it like you have.:lol:

    No one was ever using a timer measuring the setup time of a jump. That was not the question. When someone's jump could fit into the music, it could be felt shorter in setup time. When someone needs to ignore the music for the preparation of a jump, particularly a hard jump like quad, it stands out as if this person needs more time for a jump. I do have a little problem with someone using too much time than the music flow allowed for a setup for the quad jump, like Daisuke Takahashi's new LP.:p
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2013
  22. Zemgirl

    Zemgirl Well-Known Member

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    I am trying to pretend he never changed his LP after last season.
     
  23. clarie

    clarie Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps the number of quads divided by number of years competing might give a truer picture of the averages, if this hasn't been done.
     
  24. Zemgirl

    Zemgirl Well-Known Member

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    Well, yes and no. It's probably easier to land them for skaters who are in their early twenties, haven't been through years of senior competition and haven't dealt with the effects of that on their bodies. Older skaters also tend to do fewer events per season. I imagine Joubert's average per year would have been higher a few years ago, and Plushenko's as well.
     
  25. Jenny

    Jenny From the Bloc

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    For the early quad kings, there were also less opportunities to compete - the GPF had not been formalized, and there was no 4CC (although there was an extra Olys in there!). Plus, as has already been discussed, in the early days, before CoP there was less incentive to do quads, other than as icing on the cake so to speak, and for personal development. You could win without them. Now, if your competitors are doing them, you pretty much have to for the points.
     
  26. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    Plushy landed cca in 100 quads up to 2006 in all competitions, not only in internationally competitons.( wikipedia) He was 23 y.o.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2013
  27. antmanb

    antmanb Well-Known Member

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    But that isn't what this thread is about.
     
  28. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    :confused:
    The Kings of quads...
     
  29. jjane45

    jjane45 Active Member

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    The OP has made it so clear in the opening post:

     
  30. antmanb

    antmanb Well-Known Member

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    Read the first post....or any post at all, i'm not sure you bother to read very much in any thread.
     
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