Status of the U.S. Men

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, May 8, 2011.

  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Due to some serious thread drift in the Rachael Flatt thread in GSD, it was suggested to start a U.S. Men's thread.

    Who's in and who's out of the good graces of the USFSA / Nats. judges?

    How would you rank them?

    What must each of the top men do to make the US team? Improve?

    I would say Dornbush is a shaky #1. He seems to be on his way to a Quad and experience will help improve his PCS.

    Rippon needs his 3x's back to keep even with Dornbush. I don't know what it will take for him to get there, whether the loss of the 3x is a state of mind or a technical issue. I hope his new coach helps him.

    I don't even know how to judge Abbott. In the twilight of his career, he really needs to bring it this next season with clean performances, a Quad, and realize his potential in the PCS dept. to have a fighting chance, both nationally and internationally, otherwise the judges will overlook him. IF he does that [a long shot], he could be #1.

    Miner and Mahbanoozadeh are probably just behind these 3 if they are clean but spoilers if Rippon and Abbott underachieve, but in what order? Armin has more appeal, but perhaps Miner is a little more solid. If Armin skates like he did at Nats, he could be in front of Miner. Both have more or less the same technical abilities [2 3x's and the rest of the triple jumps]

    What will we see from Mroz? He can execute a Quad and looked good in the GP series but fell apart at Nats. He could be totally overlooked as well if he doesn't execute clean programs. He needs clean programs with Quads to fight with the men above, just because his PCS and non-jump elements are not as good as most of the men above.

    I think Messing will need a little more time and finesse to challenge. Plus, he's not quite consistent yet. Also, I wonder if his Elvis Stojko Jr. look will be well-received by judges overall when there are other men to choose the US team from.

    Jason Brown? Needs to get at least a 3x, then could possibly rocket up the standings. I hope he holds it together.

    Buh-bye Bradley. Even with 2 Quads in the LP at Worlds, and a Quad in combo in the SP, he was still behind Quadless Dornbush and Miner. But, he is retiring anyway.

    Lysacek and Weir should not joke about coming back in this quadrennial unless they are prepared to practice Quads. I don't see that happening. Highly Unlikely!

    More urgently than ever, the Quad is going to mean something now, and the men need to step it up with the jumps to challenge internationally, much moreso than the last 2 quadrennials.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
  2. Sylvia

    Sylvia Club comp. season is here!

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    Douglas Razzano had his best finish (10th) at US Nationals this season and landed 3A and 4T in his 5th place SP in Greensboro to skate in the final FS group. Others who are likely to be considered for at least a Senior B are Jonathan Cassar (11th), Grant Hochstein (12th), Max Aaron (Junior champ, 5th at Junior Worlds). Stephen Carriere (WD), Scott Dyer (13th), Wesley Campbell (14th), Jason Wong (15th), Alexander Johnson (16th), Alexander Zahradnicek (J2), Alexander Aiken (J3), as well as Ryan Bradley and Evan Lysacek (both for now, anyway), are the other men listed in USFS' International Selection Pool who are not JGP-eligible (ETA: I expect Jason Brown and Joshua Farris to be back on the JGP this fall).
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
  3. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. Forgot about Doug Razzano, and those jumps for the SP are impressive! He could be in the very thick of it but only IF he finds that something special PCS-wise to stand out.

    I always found Grant to be a bit unstable. I will have to take a look at Max Aaron.

    I don't hold out much hope for Carriere. He's very 2008
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
  4. purple skates

    purple skates Shadow dancing

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    Regarding Abbott, I think he's going to be passed up by the young guys. It's his inconsistency. I think what happened to Weir (being passed up by someone with more consistency) is going to happen to him. Now, I'm not sure who that person might be - the up and comers are too new yet - but it would not surprise me in the least to see it happen.

    Also, as much as I love Rippon's skating, he needs to make some serious changes in the consistency department or he's going to fall by the wayside, I think.

    I don't think Mroz will ever be a serious contender for #1.
     
  5. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    It is so wide-open; very exciting to see what happens.
    Brown ( if he gets harder jumps) and Farris ( if he stays healthy and gets good, COP- friendly programs) can burst out into the Senior scene at any moment-maybe this coming year, maybe in a year or two. Both are very promising.
    Abbott has always been a late bloomer and he does not seem to have any major injuries; he might get overtaken or he might re-emerge as the leader, if he gets two strong programs and puts back his quad. At his best he is capable of matching Kozuka's WCh content and scores. He also contemplates Sochi, which tells me that he thinks he has some physical reserves.
    Dornbush made a strong case for being #1 by being so consistent this year. Next year will be very telling- will he keep improving?
    I have a soft spot for Mahbanoozadeh- I felt he was underscored at Nationals (only IMHO, of course), and has a lovely individual style. He is exactly the same age as Dornbush (not even 20) - if he keeps skating and adds a bit of speed and maybe a 4T, he could be in the mix.
    Rippon- I just don't know; beautiful skater! With a coaching change and a bit of a 3A phobia, he could reemerge as one of the leaders-or not. Completely unclear.
    Plus Mroz, Miner.
    Until there is a very clear leader, it'll be very hard to predict.
    If I had to bet, I would bet on Abbott and Dornbush next year, and on Brown and Farris in the years to come.
     
  6. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Great assessment. I agree with all you said. Here is how I see each:

    Dornbush- U.S #1 going into next season. Early favorite for U.S title.

    Rippon- at a bit of a crossroads in his career. Needs to get back on track now. Has potential to be U.S #1 still.

    Abbott- He is at the stage of his career Tiffany Chin was in 1987. It is now or ever. If he doesnt bring it next year and make the U.S World team he is done. Needs to show better than he did on the grand prix this year to reestablish himself. Needs to work on his consistency, attack, confidence, and spins which were all lacking this past season.

    Bradley- bye bye. If you are lucky you will get an offer from Stars on Ice since you are a good show skater and well liked.

    Weir- isnt coming back. Probably just keeping his name out there since he wants to stay in the limelight and might even need the money. U.S tours dont seem to want him, and he doesnt seem willing to partake in foreign tours. Maybe time to get another job.

    Lysacek- isnt coming back. I am sure he knows he cant beat Chan as he is skating now unless Chan falls quite a few times, and as reigning Olympic Champion he would only even think of coming back if he were a serious contender for gold. With injuries over the years and an advanced age he wont be mastering an array of great quads (he would probably need 3 or 4 quads to overcome even a 2 quad Chan) . Plus he is Olympic and World Champion, one of the top skaters of his own generation, and now the headliner on Stars on Ice. He has it made as it is.

    Mahbanoozadeh- hmm not sure what to say here. I am sure he was dissapointed he didnt breakthrough at Nationals when other young ones did, after his Skate America showing. I have a feeling he will come back determined and have improved over the summer. Will it be enough though. Seems to be a good competitor, will fight for one of 2 spots on team.

    Miner- I think he has his work cut out for him. IMO he only made the World team this year due to all the mistakes at Nationals. He made a good showing for his first Worlds but doesnt exactly show alot of scoring potential at the international level yet (considering how high the mens scores now are). He needs to upgrade is difficulty and really make a mark in the fall events to be even more noticed I think.

    Mroz- Quite simply he needs his quads to have a chance. If he does his quads and skates clean he has a good shot of making another World team. If he doesnt he is pretty much hopeless, and if the up and comers cement a pecking order of sorts this year he could be forgotten. His skating skills and non jump elements will never be world class.

    The real question though is can any of the U.S men be a serious medal contender by Sochi. I would say they all have a big task ahead of them in that regard.
     
  7. purple skates

    purple skates Shadow dancing

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    I don't think either one of them is going to come back. At least I hope not. (FTR I liked both of them as skaters but that time has passed.)
     
  8. genevieve

    genevieve drinky typo pbp, closet hugger Staff Member

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    I think Abbott is still at #1, but it's a shaky #1 and he could be knocked off if he doesn't have a great start to his season (especially with a longer break between seasons :saint: ). Jeremy has a quad (although he doesn't always do it in competition), and even though he remains unpredictable, his placements internationally have risen. I think he easily could have been top 5 last week (I'm NOT saying he should have been named to the team). Of course, he easily could have not been - but I don't think he would have been lower than Dornbush.

    Dornbush has overtaken Rippon for sure. Adam could climb back, but he needs a 3A - a reliable 3A.

    I'd put Miner in the same category as Mahbanoozadeh for now - potential is there, let's see what they can do with it. I think olympic gave a great assessment of both.

    Mroz - he was having a great season until Nats, but even when he was doing well, it seemed kind of a surprise, and he really bombed at Nats. I'd say he's lost the most by having the new guys coming up in the ranks, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

    There's no point in even discussing Weir or Lysacek. I would assume Bradley is retiring, but even if he isn't, he'll be right back where he was - nowhere near the top US man but capable of powerful jumps that can land him on the podium when others don't deliver.
     
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  9. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Why are people predicting Dornbush to be #1? He did everything he achieved this year under little pressure, ala Mroz in 2009. And see where Mroz is now. We've had 3-4 youngsters in Dornbush's shoes the last few years and see where they are now.

    Until Dornbush shows how he handles pressure of being a possible frontrunner it's hard to say where he'll be. ETA: And I might add, Dornbush was at the same level for a few years before this breakthrough. So I can totally see him needing a a few years before getting another breakthrough

    Unless a US man can combine difficult jumps (quad included) and skating skills, it's likely we'll see a large # of US men who can be top 3 at nationals but are no threat to the likes of chan and Dai.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
  10. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    ^ Dornbush is better than Mroz ever was in many regards. That's why.
     
  11. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Fans said how good Rippon was too and how he was supposedly competing for #1.

    Mroz was younger than Dornbush was when Mroz got silver, so I'd say give Mroz time too.

    ETA: ANyway, until I see a reasonably consistent quad from Dornbush I'd say he's just one of six seven men competing for the US nationals podium. He also could use more senior experience befor handling the frontrunner pressure

    ETA: edited, thanks, Sylvia
     
  12. Sylvia

    Sylvia Club comp. season is here!

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    You mean National silver for both Mroz and Dornbush, right? ;)
     
  13. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    Rippon, Mroz, Miner, Dornbush and Mahbanoozadeh are in the same age group- less than 2 year difference between them. Only natural that, making their break-throughs, they play a bit of "musical chairs".

    Dornbush put out 3 consecutive high-quality high-pressure competitions this year, which speaks well for his consistency. Though I completely agree-it might take him more than one off-season to jump to a next competitive level; we should not automatically expect it. For now, though, he shows strength in all aspects of skating ( good jumps, good consistency, great speed, good presentation, decent SS), which hopefully bodes well for the future.
     
  14. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Of course time will tell regarding the assessments.

    Re: Miner, IMO he made the World team because he skated two clean and beautifully paced competitive programs at Nationals. It was a very competitive Nationals. Mroz not doing as well showed that despite having quads, he doesn’t have the overall skating skills of others like Abbott, Rippon, Dornbush, Miner, and Mahbahnoozadeh. Again at Worlds, Ross actually skated more cleanly than Richard in both programs, but was low-balled on the marks. Ross definitely could add more difficulty to his programs, but I am impressed by his talent and consistency, and I wonder why so many seem to think he’s someone to dismiss. (He's not been dismissed here, but in some other threads).

    Richard has great jumps, and his lp this season has been his secret weapon – great music and choreography that showcase his strengths. As others have noted, Richard needs to develop more stretch, flexibility and continue to work on his skating skills and artistic interpretation. Perhaps he is going to become the favored one, but I hope he’s able to maintain perspective and focus and be his own person and not allow himself to be pressured into macho pretensions, or change his personality when/ if he becomes the favored “Scott Hamilton look-alike.”

    It was the USFS judges’ choice to keep Abbott behind Miner. No question that Abbott would have gotten the marks and likely came in second and been on the World team if he hadn’t made several mistakes in his lp that were silly, lack of concentration mistakes. Still, he could also have squeaked by with third place, even with the mistakes, but the judges felt differently. There’s no question, no matter how excited I too was for Ryan, that Abbott (outside of not having a quad) showed more difficulty and better skating skills in his clean sp than did Ryan in his clean sp. The judges clearly wanted to get behind Ryan, and gave him hugely inflated scores for his sp, which was crowd-pleasing and entertaining, and they largely left him off the hook for the errors on his quads in the lp. Unfortunately, for Abbott, the judges were largely uninterested in being supportive of him when he made mistakes in his lp. (I wonder whether Ryan being in first after the sp negatively affected Abbott's thinking, when he had every right to believe he skated well enough in the sp to have been in first going into the lp?)

    I’m sure that neither Ross nor Richard expected to make the World team in their senior Nationals debuts. It was a bonus for them that they did. What I am most impressed by is the way they have carried themselves, and how they skated so well under the pressure of their Worlds debuts, even with poor start orders and the numbers stacked against them. They each maintained their focus and projected well and kept it together in both programs. They should feel proud, and I hope they continue to improve. They both seem to be on the right track.

    The interesting thing will be to see who makes it to Worlds next year:
    I would not be surprised to see Abbott and Rippon, or Abbott and Dornbush. At this point, it’s not out of realm of possibility for a finish of Abbott, Rippon, Dornbush, Miner, Mahbahnoozadeh. Of course, anything is possible, as we’ve already seen. I just hope USFS doesn’t shoot themselves in the skateboot again as they did this year with their singles events World team selections. Better picks might have been: Dornbush, Abbott, Miner, or Dornbush, Bradley, Abbott. Or since they really wanted to reward Ryan: Bradley, Dornbush, Abbott. On the women’s side: to me a no-brainer (despite Mirai’s mistakes in lp, Flatt was not better in her lp). I would have sent Czisny, Mirai. IMO, Abbott and Mirai were the missing links that could have secured 3 spots for mens and womens singles at next year’s Worlds. If you are not going to support your best talent (even when they make mistakes), how can you expect the international judges to respect your best talent (when it’s missing in action) or your next best talent, and when your best talent shows up again, will they be respected when they skate their best?
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
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  15. Sylvia

    Sylvia Club comp. season is here!

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    Of the 9 US men who have competed at Worlds since 2007...

    Lysacek's first Senior Nationals was 2001 (12th); first Senior national medal was 2005 (3rd); first Senior Worlds was 2005 (3rd), age 19.

    Weir's first Senior Nationals was 2001 (6th); first Senior national medal was 2004 (1st); first Senior Worlds was 2004 (5th), age 19.

    Abbott's first Senior Nationals and medal was 2007 (4th); first Senior Worlds was 2008 as 1st alternate (11th), age 22.

    Bradley's first Senior Nationals was 2000 (7th); first Senior national medal was 2007 (silver); first Senior Worlds was 2007 (15th), age 23.

    Rippon's first Senior Nationals was 2009 (7th); first Senior Worlds was 2010 as 2nd alternate (6th), age 20.

    Dornbush's first Senior Nationals was 2010 (11th); first Senior national medal was 2011 (2nd); first Senior Worlds was 2011 (9th), age 19.

    Mroz's first Senior Nationals and medal was 2009 (2nd); first Senior Worlds was 2009 (9th), age 18.

    Miner's first Senior Nationals and medal was 2011 (3rd); first Senior Worlds was 2011 (11th), age 20.

    Carriere's first Senior Nationals was 2007 (9th); first Senior national medal was 2008 (3rd); first Senior Worlds was 2008 (10th), age 18.
     
  16. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    As we know, politics and favoritism always plays a huge role both nationally and internationally in results. The best skaters can do is to keep their focus and maintain their consistency, so they at least put out their best, cause the decision-making is not up to them. I would argue that Abbott on a good day is better than Chan -- Chan's biggest weapon has always been his favored status with the judges (huge fed backing), and now with consistent quads, that is what has elevated Chan to "God" status. Still, Abbott is a more well-rounded and complete skater, IMHO. As far as Kosuka, and all the others, Abbott is still better (he has just lost rep, and he needs to get it back along with a quad). The rest of our guys are as competitive and stack up well -- but the quad factor and apparent lack of standing by U.S. fed is part of what hurts us internationally (not to mention poor decision-making by U.S. fed).
     
  17. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    The way I see it...

    Dornbush is the U.S. #1 right now, after spectacular showings at the JGPF, Nationals and Worlds. He has rightfully earned that spot at the moment. His big test will come with the quad, as the quality of his other jumps is superb. If he can handle the pressure of being "the favorite" (or "a favorite"), he should do quite well.

    Abbott and Miner are interchangeable as the U.S. #2 and #3, in my opinion. Abbott has the greater scoring potential (by far), but Miner has shown much better consistency and competitiveness. His 3A is amazingly improved this season, and I think it would benefit him to spend the summer working 1) on a quad, and 2) with a stroking/edge specialist. Abbott's bronze at 4CC helped salvage some of his season, but he really can't afford any more disastrous outings if he wants the judges to keep any faith in him. It's truly "now or never" for Jeremy.

    Rippon is the U.S. #4 in my eyes, but Mahbanoozadeh is right on his heels at #5. I think Adam will rebound nicely next season with a new coaching atmosphere and a new perspective, so I expect him to "move up" in the rankings (both domestically and internationally).

    Mroz rounds out the top 6, but he needs to leave CoSprings NOW. Seriously. His quad is there, now it's time to work with a coach who will push him to focus on the other aspects of his skating (and who will ultimately push him to be a better skater).

    Other contenders heading into next season: Messing, Brown and perhaps an outside shot for Razzano simply because his quads are stunning and his performance aspect has greatly improved, too.

    Cassar and Hochstein are very pleasant skaters, but both don't have the technical content to really challenge for the top 5/6.

    Lysacek, Weir and Bradley won't be coming back, IMO.
     
  18. purple skates

    purple skates Shadow dancing

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    Am I reading this correctly that you think the judges manipulated the marks to make sure Abbott finished fourth by .019? How on earth could they coordinate that?
     
  19. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Just as at Worlds, just as at Nationals, the judges go in with an idea of where they want to place skaters, which obviously could change based on their performances. I would say most judges try to do their best and be above board, but the fact they are anonymous I think makes the scoring suspect, especially internationally. Even nationally, come on, Ryan was obviously favored as he is well-liked and everyone, including the judges were eager to see him rewarded. With Abbott, coming into Nats, he had lost rep (hadn't placed as well as he should have in the GP, again due to loss of rep with the judges and programs that were good, but perhaps not as good as in previous seasons). I think going into Nats, the judges had every intention of Abbott being on the team, but were determined to cut him no slack if he faltered. Despite their words to the contrary, the marks are highly manipulable. One has only to recall 2008 U.S. Nationals and the so-called "tie" to realize that the marks are manipulable. I don't think any specific number was planned, but they most obviously had decided to cut Abbott no slack, and surely it was not a surprise to the judges when Abbott placed behind Miner.
     
  20. BittyBug

    BittyBug Kiteless

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    Re Mahbanoozaheh - isn't he off to Dartmouth? I thought I read that he had been accepted but had deferred a year.
     
  21. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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    Same way they made sure to tie Weir and Lysacek a few years ago and made sure to break that tie the way they wanted.

    magic :COP:
     
  22. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    I think the more successful US male skaters like Evan and Johnny spent a few years skating in someone else's shadow before they became mentally and physically ready to be US #1. With the field being this wide open now, any of the top men can become top
    2, but that could also mean that the younger generation has less time to become mentally ready to be the lead skater for the US. JMHO
     
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  23. Sylvia

    Sylvia Club comp. season is here!

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    Good point, jlai.

    Here's a relevant article excerpt that I posted before 2011 Nationals:
    ETA: aftershocks, the judges are not anonymous at US Nationals. I don't think it's accurate to generalize that all of them were "uninterested in being supportive" of Abbott, for example. And the total score point differential was 0.19 between Miner and Abbott (not .019 which I assume is a typo).
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
  24. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure whether to call Abbott still #1 or give that title to Dornbush. Abbott had a bad season in general, and Dornbush had a very good one, but Abbott did medal at Four Continents. Dornbush wasn't there though, and he may have beaten Abbott if he had been. So, I'll call it a toss up for #1 at this point. I'm not really going to count Bradley since I'm pretty sure he's retiring again, but I'd actually still put him ahead of Miner if I was going to. He didn't skate his best at worlds and if he skates with his usual energy and charm I think he's still a little better than Miner. However, this might be personally biased a little as a long time fan of Bradley. But anyway, discounting Bradley, I'd put Miner in third. For fourth and fifth, I'll go with Mahbahnoozadeh and Rippon, but I'm undecided on the order.. probably Rippon, I guess. lol, then Mroz in fifth and I don't know enough about the rest of the men after that. If Evan were to return I think he would still be on top, but Johnny would have to fight with Dornbush/Abbott/Miner/Rippon/Mahbahnoozadeh/maybe even Mroz for the second spot. I say this because when I saw Johnny skate this year, he looked kind of slow and sluggish while Evan looked like his usual self.
     
  25. skateboy

    skateboy Well-Known Member

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    People keep saying that and I'm not so sure why. Well okay, maybe Mirai could have done it.

    As for Abbott, if he had been sent it would have been along with Ryan and Dornbush. Jeremy would have had to place third or higher in order for the US men to get three spots. That placement would have been highly unlikely. So, IMHO, this argument is much ado about nothing.
     
  26. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the info and correction, Sylvia. If the judges don't mark anonymously at Nats, tney might as well, since I don't see anywhere publicly posted their names with the scores. Perhaps there is somewhere to go online and check the numbers and the names are listed there. It still doesn't exempt the way the sport overall handles this judging system. Also, as I mentioned, I think most judges wish to do a good job and are above board. It is not an easy job to be a judge, but the current system is still highly suspect, and doesn't work that well and is highly manipulable, but that's CoP and figure skating. I agree that not everyone in USFS is down on Abbott, but he definitely doesn't receive a huge amount of respect from either international or national judges. And of course, he needs to repair that with more consistent performances. Perhaps it was a tough call, but I was surprised to see him left completely off the team, and to place 4th by such a small number ... there are so many ways to manipulate the scoring.
     
  27. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Why would you think that Abbott couldn't have managed to place 3rd or 4th at Worlds? Granted, the way the politics went at this Worlds, Gachinski was obviously being favored for the podium, and Abbott may not have been given deserving marks with not having a quad (he had been shortchanged in the marks IMO all season by international judges). Still Abbott has way better skating skills than Gachinski, Brezina, Oda, Amodio and others. He's also very competitive with Kosuka. Dai had problems at this Worlds, so with Abbott in the mix skating solidly, and even with the politics in the scoring, why wouldn't he have been able to place 3rd or 4th? He's clearly a better overall skater than Gachinski and Brezina, despite their quads pulling big numbers.

    With Abbott at Worlds also, I think it would have been a statement to the international judges that the U.S. expects if their most experienced skater performs well, they should not be shut out of 3 spots. By sending less internationally experienced and lesser known skaters, it didn't send the best message. In any case, even as it stands, both Dornbush and Miner were low-balled in the marks and hurt with positioning by skate order in the sp. They should both have placed higher, IMHO. A team of Abbott, Dornbush and Bradley might have been viewed as a stronger team. There's no doubt judges make decisions about placements before the skaters skate. The unfortunate factor is that despite his having quads, the U.S. sent a number 1 man to Worlds who for some reason they thought was going to be viewed with more respect. He was not -- and as well, he did not bring his A game. Supposedly you could say the same thing happened at the Olympics when Abbott as the number 1 man in U.S. placed behind numbers 2, and 3. The difference is that numbers 2 and 3 on that team had more experience and were well known internationally.

    ETA: Yes, blue idealist, Evan is likely better fit than Johnny because Evan has been doing a lot more skating than Johnny, not to mention his dance training stint.
     
    Last edited: May 8, 2011
  28. gkelly

    gkelly Well-Known Member

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    http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2011/68096/results.html

    At the bottom of the summary results page, all the officials are listed by name, with judge numbers for the judges.

    On the detailed protocol page (see "Judge detail scores") link at the top of the page, or go straight to http://www.usfigureskating.org/leaderboard/results/2011/68096/results.html), the numbers J1-J9 match up with the numbers of the judges in the officials listing.

    This is different from the senior international events that use anonymity by scrambling the order of the judges on the protocol sheets. But you have to know the rules for each kind of event to know whether the protocols are scrambled or not, since they look the same the way they're presented.

    But why assume it was manipulated at all? The simplest explanation is that each judge just judged what they saw, the tech panel called what they saw, and that's the way it worked out.

    Some judges could have chosen to cut Abbott a little slack as defending champion, others could have been extra hard on him because they expected more of him, or maybe they all independently or by agreement made every effort to judge him by the exact same standards they judged every other skater in the event.

    Since they were just judging GOEs and PCS, they may have each had a good guess about where their marks would rank the skaters. But they couldn't know what the other judges were doing, they couldn't know what levels each skater got for their non-jump elements, and they couldn't do all the math in their heads to figure out exactly where their scores were going to rank the last few skaters compared to those who had skated earlier.

    After Abbott's free skate, some judges might have been thinking they still had him in the lead for the long program, or close enough that his short program lead over the younger guys would be enough to hold up, or they might have thought the mistakes would drop him behind Rippon and Mahbanoozedeh as well as Dornbush and Miner. Some of them may have guessed exactly correctly where that performance would rank him both in the free program and overall. But I don't doubt that some judges were surprised by the standings as soon as they were announced.

    And I'm sure no one was thinking "That will put him just about two tenths of a point behind Miner overall. We want him out of the three at the end of the evening (assuming Mroz and/or Bradley delivers) and we want the margin to be painfully small." There's just no way any individual can do that kind of mental math in real time and count on the other judges and the tech panel to oblige.

    What they were probably thinking was more likely something along the lines of "Sorry, Jeremy, there was some good stuff in there, but not quite enough -- I don't think that's going to hold up."

    Then the international committee made its selections, and they chose to follow the Nationals results in naming the world team. But the judges on the judging panel didn't control the selection.
     
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  29. aftershocks

    aftershocks Well-Known Member

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    Why couldn't the judges know what their peers were doing or likely to do, gkelly? You really think all the scoring in figure skating is so squeaky clean and that the judges don't talk to each other beforehand? I believe most judges try to be above board, but not all, especially internationally (politics and deals still play a role behind the scenes).

    How do you explain the scoring in the sp? Ryan had a crowd-pleasing performance, but was clearly overmarked, which because he's well-liked few people objected to. In hindsight, Abbott skated a clean sp and obviously displayed better overall skating skills, not to mention more difficulty than Ryan had (despite Ryan's 4/3 combo). Ryan was being touted and received a lot of buzz even before the event. He was obviously favored, IMO, or he would not have placed first. Since I like Ryan and enjoyed his performance, I was happy for him, but part of me was like, okay, they really want him to win this.
     
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  30. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Again, there are differences between Dornbush and Mroz/Rippon. It extends far beyond similar standings at the same age.

    First of all, Dornbush's 9th at Worlds this year was achieved in a deeper field than Mroz's 9th in '09

    Dornbush is 1) much more consistent; 2) has a lot more musicality, and 3) has better PCS even as a newcomer to the Sr. ranks at this point than Mroz even now [let alone Mroz in '09].

    Dornbush has overall consistent, strong jump technique but has much better 3x technique than Rippon. That last one doesn't sound like much, but it's a key move that will be a stepping stone for Dornbush to a much needed Quad. Rippon is regressing with the 3x at this point.

    Finally, I would say that Dornbush's solid coaching relationship gives him better stability than Rippon has.

    Those are the differences I see fairly easily