Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by dorianhotel, May 7, 2013.
I agree that she has great POTENTIAL, but She is unstable in many part.
as of now, umm Nooooooo...
maybe 2018 will be her time
As I said in the JL thread, a while back I had picked Lipnitskaya to contend for gold, but over the past year she has struggled and Sotnikova has started to come into her own as a senior. (I suppose I am the only person in the world who loved her Aguilera FP this year but that's another matter.) I definitely don't see Adelina as Yu Na's main rival. I don't think anybody can beat Yu Na except herself. But I could see Adelina making a big leap forward this season and being a surprise medalist. She is unbelievably gifted and her credentials are better than any other 16-17-year-old lady right now. I would love to see her pull it off. Likely? I guess not. Possible? Oh yeah!
All the young ladies have a shot.
adelina's pc improved during thr skating season as well as gravie, zijun.who is to saythey wont improve over the summer and during the season.
Oksana is crying with laughter at this assumption that Sotnikova can even come close to Kim.
The discrepancy in PCS is the main reason I say the younger girls will have to wait their turn. Even if Zijun had delivered a strong SP, she wouldn't have been close to the top 3 in terms of PCS and that would have made the difference. But to be fair Zijun's skating doesn't deserve the type of PCS the top ladies get...maybe in a year or so. With the landscape as it is, it will take a meltdown/collapse from one of the top 3 in order for one of these new girls to sneak onto the podium in Sochi.
While I agree with you, it's worth mentioning that Osmond beat one of the three favourites in the short program at Worlds this year and did so with PCS worse than Leonova.
In terms of Adelina her UTRS are maybe with the back end of her 3/3 double axel/3toe. So in a sense I think she's in better shape than most give her credit for. It seems like her landings are often jerky maybe that's why she has 3/3 issues... (I am no technique expert whatsoever.)
I will sum up the ladies situation for next year. Kostner and Asada can be threats to Kim and Suzuki, Gold, Wagner, Li, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Lipnitskaia, Osmond, and Murakami can be threats to Kostner and Asada, but ONLY Kostner and Asada can be a threat to Kim, nobody else. Think of Asada and Kostner like a bridge between Kim and that large group. The bridge can possibly touch Kim, and that group can possibly grab and touch the bridge, but the people on one side of the bridge cannot touch what is one the other side of the bridge. The gap is too far away.
Kim is way too consistent to make enough mistakes for a Russian, an American, an old Japanese lady (eg Suzuki or Ando), or someone else to beat her. She isnt perfect and has bad competitions sometimes, but even her bad competitions were never bad enough for her to lose to anyone besides Asada, Kostner, and a prime Ando in the last 6 years. That is not going to change next season. Maybe if she goes past 2014 people like Sotnikova or others can improve enough to be a threat.
Barring a disaster on Kim's part....as it stands now I agree with JJ. Kostner and Asada can touch her, but the rest cannot. The only other skater I can see pulling up to that top group is Wagner if she shows a lot of improvement and gets 3-3's in the programs. After that we have Suzuki and Murakami who I believe can be podium threats, and maybe a couple others but we will have to see who brings it starting next season. I would not put my money on the Russians, personally.
I think Sotnikova has an outside shot to get on the podium, perhaps a better shot than Tuktamisheva but she's going tohave to skate lights out in both the SP and LP and she'll need help from at least one of the Big 3 (meaning major mistakes). Tuk seems to always have problems in the SP which often kills her chances at winning gold or even a medal of any color.
Its true that Li beat kostner and mao in TES and then in PCS there was a 12 and 10 point lead but even if she wasn't in their league and deserving of their PCS being where she was in the SP - in the teens!- was not at all helpful. And Mao and Kostner did have their best technical showings in years and years! Kostner was doing 3/3 and Mao was improved. It was not what was expected from last season where Kostner early on had no flip or lutz and Mao was doing singles and falling. So they both did do better in tech. And they have the huge PCS buffer- but I think that was more because the 4th place finisher in the LP was so far down in the SP- even if she had been top 6 her PCS maybe wouldh't have been that much higher.
On a broader note, I think a hierarchy of ladies has really been established and become clearly visible this past season with the return of Yu Na, the premiere of the Russian babies, Gracie Gold, Canada's next great hope, etc. all coming together to perform at Worlds.
I think you can break it down by groups:
#1 - Yu Na, Mao, Carolina - clear advantage over the others, with Yu Na having an edge over Mao and Carolina
#2 - Ashley - some may disagree w/ me, but she skates with maturity and should solidify this spot behind the aforementioned 3 in the pecking order. The others below her may show more talent in certain areas of their skating, but Ashley is a better competitor at the moment and skates better under pressure than those I've ranked at #3.
#3 - Here is the gaggle: Gold, Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Murakami, Osmond and Li. All are talented in wildly different ways. On a good day with proper development, they could supplant Ashley but probably the gals in group #1 are out of reach. Hence, to the point of this thread, Sotnikova is not Kim's 'biggest threat'.
Akiko is a mystery for me. Her season has surprisingly been up and down, she is going to be 29 next year, her skating has gone from marvelous (4CC; WTT - a little inflated TBH, perhaps a 'gift' of sorts) to disastrous (Nationals, GPF, WC) and still I think where she is placed may have more to do with politics than anything else. Will she be Japan's no. 2 or no. 3 lady next season, and will that hold back her marks for any reason? Her best performances have been in Japan. IDK.
Kiira is probably moving a little further down the list despite small improvements, due to the rise of the youngsters listed in #3 and the fact that she is aging and has not had a full season in a while.
I don't see her as a threat to Kim, at least not the Kim we saw at 2013 worlds, but I do see her as a serious medal threat. In my opinion, it all depends on the programs she's given. What's really lacking in her skating at this point is a beautifully constructed, cohesive program. If she gets two of those, look out!
And indeed she was.
No she did not need help. It turns out the Big 3 needed help from her. Sotnikova always controlled her own destiny just like I said she did a year ago.
Haha. 5th is where Kostner would be if Mao and Julia didn't fall. Sotnikova was always on her way to the gold.
I was getting ready to congratulate you on your good call, but you have amply done that already. :/
Lucky prediction! You knew the Olympics was going to take place in Sochi, Russia, and not in South Korea!!!
Fortunately, it wasn't Julia Lip being prematurely over-rewarded. Enuf was enuf as it was during the team comp. Was in Sot's favor that she wasn't given the chance to cop gold in the team event. She came out absolutely gangbusters in the sp and fp (she just didn't need to tack on that extra wobbly jump in the 3-jump combo). Of course, Sotnikova also needs better costuming, more maturity and better choreography/ music selection.
ETA: Prior to this serendipitous Sochi Olympics, Sotnikova, although extremely talented, was never the model of consistency.
Sotnikova definitely has a great chance to defeat Kim. In fact, I think Hanyu can fall twice and still win in the men's. And I will go one step further and predict a huge upset for silver in pairs.
Actually there was some help - from Mao. I said in my previous post (of last year!) that one of the Big 3 would need to bomb and Mao did (in the SP). Still, it's funny seeing this thread again because it came true - Sotnikova did indeed threaten and win Olympic gold.
This threat was started in 2013... And while the OP was right, I wonder how the event had turned out if Mao had been clean. Though I'm afraid Kostner would have taken the hit and Sotnikova would probably still have won.
I think you're right.
Um, thanks for the newsflash.
If Mao had been clean in both programs I am guessing a silver or bronze for her (probably bronze) and Kostner being dropped off the podium, with Sotnikova still winning. Which would basically be criminal in every conceivable way, even more than the results already were, but it is what I believe would happen.
An even bigger question than Mao is what would happen if Julia were clean. That I cant even begin to get a good feel on as Sotnikova could be dropped out of the medals entirely now too, if Julia was their #1 before her short program miss. Ironically Kim would have a better chance of winning against Julia as the #1 than Adelina as the #1 though, since Adelina alteast has things about her skating you can push in combination with some major politicking to put her above Kim. Not as sure with Julia if you could elevate her all the way to gold with how Kim and Kostner skated, even with politics. So ironically it probably ended up better for Russia when Julia missed in her short, if she as their #1 was their original plan.
Good call. I wouldn't have imagined this at the time you called it, but I could you could read between the lines.
Wagner or Suzuki ever beating Yu Na Kim, even one not skating as well as she did in Sochi? Epic fail.
It's just more evidence and proof that sotnikova from her first debut as a senior never skated as well she did in sochi! It was a level that was shocking! Obviously people had high hopes because of her near flawless junior career but it flatly did not show up when she was a senior except in brief flashes like her super high scores in sps.
Fortunate for her she had that skate in Sochi, since at no other event or location would it have resulted in a gold medal for her. Had she done the same skates at worlds in Canada (not Russia) last year instead for instance, she would have been nowhere near a gold medal.
Heh what a time warped thread. It would be more accurate to say Politics is the biggest threat to Kims's 2nd Olympic as it has been the story of her entire career.
It is no secret for some inexplicable reason Kim has been disliked among Russia skating fans as well as Japan. Consider post Vancouver rules changes and the judging panel make up, What likely to have been scripted were Russia Gold/Silver Adelina/Julia, Japan Silver/Bronze Asada. Russia and Japan have aligned politically for years in prep of Sochi, but Asada's SP put her out of contention and Hanyu's OGM actually lessen the pressure for ISU to award another Japanese gold.
Adelina's mark has always felt artificial especially when skating at home against the likes of Liza and Julia (both I's rated higher than her) which would indicate she is powerfully supported within her federations, to the point she get her very own personal judge from Russia federation assigned to judged on all of her competitions for the entire season as well at the Olympics. Is it mere coincidence Adelina is the ONLY skater assigned to shadow the Koreans on all their practice sessions? Her unprecedented sky high European Championship PCS (top 10 of all time) despite not winning the championship and placed over Carolina were precursor to the Olympics. One of the most politically corrupted country in the world hosting the games including controversially winning the bid of the games at last minute, how is it any surprise what comes out of the oven.
It should be interesting to see how Sotnikova's career proceed from this point, I must admit I am far from impressed from her program selection this year. Another program repeated from her Juniors. Black Swan might as well be the national anthem for Russian skaters, how utterly predictable and trite. What next, Gracie doing the Stars Spangles or Born in the USA?