Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Mar 17, 2013.
Only 2 Spots !!
Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaya are my picks. The RSF will choose one of Tuktamysheva or Sotnikova (or who knows, maybe even both) to punish for not keeping 3 spots, and we wont know who that is for awhile yet. Either way if Lipnitskaya gets over her current injuries and skates to her potential she isnt going to miss it.
more likely its Leonova who will be punished imo
Tuk, Lip and Adelina have equal chances of making the Team but one of them will be left out
If Julia recovers fully next Season, I agree she might make the Team
Julia has never been to Worlds, so I don't think they'll risk it (they would if they had 3, but not if there's only 2). A lot will depend on how they skate on the GP.
Liza really did nothing wrong at Worlds. SP was excellent until she had a freak fall on a spin, something that even happened to Amodio who's a great spinner. I think that spooked her and caused the single axel. LP was pretty flawless except she didn't do 3-3. It's unfortunate she ended up behind Adelina yet again. She has the better nerves. She just didn't get the marks she would've gotten had she skated in a later group.
Adelina will probably make it if she skates at all decently because she has TAT on her side.
I agree with all of your thoughts, but especially this.
Well I didnt even mention her since I think she is right out of it. After a year of totally bombing out everywhere, and all the young Russians coming up, she is toast. She could have regained some credence for herself with a good Worlds (and had she been the one to finish really high and regain the Russians 3 spots almost by herself, she would have been a hero and had a huge shot at the team next year) but instead she had a miserable one and was the lowest placing of 3 dissapointing Russians. She ended her own amateur career for all intents and purposes this season. Every other skater on the list is more likely to make the team than her, minus Makarova of course.
yeah but I didn't really made a difference going to Worlds ? their results are very much equal
the important decider will be the coming GP Season and wasn't Julia injured ?, the three have equal chance imo
It's between Adelina, Liza, and Julia. I suspect their respective GP performances will have something to do with who ultimately gets to go. Julia is maybe at the biggest disadvantage where she hasn't competed at Worlds yet and didn't have the best of results this season, and may still be affected by injuries and growing pains in the coming season. I would have liked to see Pogorilaya get to go but that won't happen with just 2 spots, but she's young anyways, and maybe they will send her out on senior GP next season for the experience anyhow.
Julia is going through a growth spurt and those tiny jumps might disappear.
but she still won a junior silver medal going through her puberty and she didn't get underrotations on her jumps, so there is still promise for Julia
Lets not act like Adelina is being held up by TAT. She has now beaten Liza in two back to back international events. They are both very close, beyond which Mishin is hardly a pauper in the politiks department.
A LOT can happen in 12 months but judging on where their skating is right now, they would be NUTS to take anyone but Sotnikova & Tuktamysheva. These two are the ones hyped for years, the ones the judges will be most familiar with and the ones who are starting to produce more mature skating that the judges could be inclined to run with in a situation where one of them skates lights out if the faves faulter. Lipnitskaya has a year to sort it out but she has a HELL of a lot of work to do if she wants to be in with a chance of making the team. Her jumps are crumbling as she grows and the technique and skating quality is nowhere near the other two girls. Gumbiness and seeming deafness to music can only get you so far.
Tuk or Sot could be replaced with Lip, but I'm guessing those are the only 3 in consideration. I love Korobeynikova but she may need a new coach that can get her to stop being such a headcase (and boring) and I like Pogo too but I highly doubt the Fed would give one of it's highly coveted home Olympic spots to a 15 year old with minimal experience, even if she does next season.
I wish the Rus Fed would implement a point system and announce it in advance: GP medals, making GPF, GPF medals, Nationals medals, Euro medals, etc will get points and whichever two had the best season after Euros will go to Sochi.
The more important pick I think is who is the leader of the 2 Russian girls heading into Sochi because she gets to compete at the team event and fight for a team medal. Keep in mind they are all pretty even at this point, with Sot and Tuk slightly ahead on senior experience. This can easiy change next season if Lip wins Euros (for example).
I hadnt thought about that but for all these skaters from top countries it is hugely important not only to make the Oly team but be the #1, so you have a shot at a team medal. The Russian ladies are a good example of this as for any of Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, or Lipnitskaya winning an individual medal in Sochi is a huge long shot, but a team medal could be won by whichever gets to compete in it, if they can contribute a strong performance.
Both girls can skate in the team, hopefully. As of right now, I would say Sot for SP, Tuk for LP.
They can only switch skaters out in two disciplines.
They definitely can't for men, as they only have one entry. We'll see what happens with dance, but as of right now, I would not rely on I&K in the team event (shame, because it would be good for them to get a taste of the Olympics before the dance event). V&T are the best shot if they want a gold in team, but they might not want to do a full competition prior to the pairs event... Max is super patriotic though and they're pretty consistent, so they might.
Actually what I said of I&K is true for the girls as well. Neither has skated at an Olympics. The Russian crowds are really noisy. I&K couldn't hear their FD music in Moscow. So if possible, it would be best to let both girls skate in the team event, so they can experience that pressure before their solo turns.
Unless one (or both) of them has an injury, I think Liza and Adelina have the inside track on this. Julia has never competed at senior worlds, and for Leonova to make the team of two, 5-6 Russian ladies will have to be injured. Sorry, I actually like Alena but I was not at all impressed with her this year. I think she may be on the way out at this point, like Makarova.
V&T would want to win 2 medals so I am sure they will do the team event. If they can switch skaters out in 2 disciplines than I agree with will give both ladies a program, and if I&K have a good year maybe give both them and B&S a program too to give B&S some rest for the individual event but still keeping them eligible for a medal.
Not to sound pro Canadian but I am honestly pretty sure Canada is winning the team event. Even if we win no individual golds in Sochi, we still will win the team event. No country can match our depth across the various events right now. Our weak link is Omsond and she is capable of a top 5 or 6 finish in the individual event on a good day, and she is young and will only get better.
I thought the team event at the Olympics is going to have 1 woman, 1 man, 1 pair and 1 dance couple?
If Lipnitskaya doesn't really make any waves during the GP and Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva have decent showings, then I'd say those 2 will go to Sochi and Worlds.
I was gutted for Alena. I thought she should have stayed with this season's free programe rather than go back to last years. It's almost like telling the judges you have no form.
I thought Elizaveta was so undermarked in her free skate. I would have had her & the chinese girl way above Gracie who now seems to be the-can-do-no-wrong girl for the judges.
It's so sad that Makarova has very little hope of making Sochi. Of all the Russian girls I enjoy watching her the most.
Gold and to some degree Osmond were both overmarked at Worlds. Tuktamysheva and Li both skated so much better than them on the night and it wasnt reflected in the scores. Well Li did atleast pass Fall-mond but not by enough given their skates. Sotnikova was somewhere between them as far as fair skating given how they skated. Those 5 and possibly others will battle it out for many years post Sochi but it is becoming clear who has the judging favor of the bunch, and it is Gold and Kaetlyn Fall-mond. Atleast the other girls can count on Kaetlyn Fall-mond to fall atleast 3 times each competition so if they skate clean they have to beat her, regardless what the judges want, but Gold as starting to fight more and stand up her programs so judging favortism for her could be a bigger problem for those others in the future.
That's correct. However, they can switch skaters between the SP and LP, in up to two disciplines. I am thinking they might do it for ladies and pairs.
judgejudy - I'm sure V&T will participate in the team event, but pairs is the first individual competition, so skating four times in such a short period is a lot. They might opt to do only the SP, for example, so that they won't be more tired than S&S.
Liza has done poorly in SP's for a majority of this season and was so bad in worlds she was beaten by Leonova. The SP problem for her is real and a major reason why she may not qualify for the Olympics. She can qualify for Euros and then beat someone there to place for the Olympics. Julia, Adelina, Liza are most likely to go to Euros. But if Liza has a bad SP at Euros and is beaten by Julia it will probably be Adelina and Julia. ANd maybe Liza doesn't even qualify for Euros. The SP problem for her is real and must be improved. GPF's saw bombing in Worlds saw bomb in SP. That's not something she can afford and is totally at risk of losing to Julia. Sotnikova also needs to sort out her bad flip problems. Maybe stop doing them. She cost herself a three jump combo at worlds because she didn't do a flip well and missed the rest of the combo. There are big problems. Why they were 9th and 10th at worlds.
The quality of Liza's jumps is much better than Julia's. I think that will give her the edge.
They're so good. And few have shown they can come back from a bad SP more than Liza but what if the hole is so bad she can't dig herself out of it!
Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya
Or maybe Shelepen
Shelepen didn't she retire ???
thats why I lump all the Polinas in 1 poll
depends with Julia, she can still pull a Lipinski next season maybe not gold of course
but if she will be the most successful of the three in GP's and win Euros , then I don't see why she will be left out for Olympics
the three are pretty even imo
Shelepen is only 17 y/o she did not retire she had an injury (foot or ankle? something like that) since early this season, that's why she had a meltdown at Skate Canada, made things worse, so then she did not compete for the rest of the season (she was qualified for Nats but withdrew). I do not know if she is recovered again now but I would think/hope so. Anyways, I was just joking about Korobeynikova and Pogorilaya, I maybe like those 2 the most of the Russian ladies but it's not like they honestly have a realistic chance at this point.
Tuk landed all her jumps, but she was slow, her jumps were small, and she had poor ice coverage. She may be having difficulty dealing with a significant weight gain since the GPF---even her face was rounder than I can remember and she has a hint of a double chin. She had the lowest PCS scores of the ladies in the top 10.