Peaked too soon. Programs at their best that should have won OG

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by essence_of_soy, May 9, 2012.

  1. essence_of_soy

    essence_of_soy Well-Known Member

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  2. jbjanderson

    jbjanderson New Member

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    Kwan's 1998 National's performance, it was magical.
     
  3. briancoogaert

    briancoogaert Well-Known Member

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    Her 2002 US Nats LP would have been enough to win in SLC, IMO.
     
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  4. mysticchic

    mysticchic Well-Known Member

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    Kwan's 96 FS, a year too early
     
  5. Yazmeen

    Yazmeen Well-Known Member

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    Agree with all the MK comments; she peaked too soon in those Olympic years (yes, going coachless in 2002 didn't help). If she could have just skated with the freedom she had at Nationals at those Olympics, she could (and likely would) have been a 2-time OGM. But both times, at Olympics, to borrow from Jenny Kirk, she let the "perfection" monster hold her back.
     
  6. Habs

    Habs Well-Known Member

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    If Kurt Browning had had his short program performance from Worlds in 1993 at the Olympics in Lillehammer, he would have won a medal there.
     
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  7. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Irina Slutskaya in both the 2001-2002 and 2005-2006 seasons peaked too early. She would have won the OGM with many of her early season performance.

    Tonya Harding at 91 Skate America is a great one. With how Kristi and Midori skated in Albertville she would have cruised to the gold if she had a clean short as well.

    Debi Thomas in the 87-88 seasons for sure. Both her Skate Canada and U.S Nationals performances would have won the Olympic Gold, and probably bumped Witt to bronze by placing 2nd to Manley in the LP.

    Abbott peaks at Nationals every year, or he doesnt peak at all.

    Stojko probably would have won the 1998 Olympic Gold over Kulik with his Canadians Nationals performance. Yagudin also would have beaten Kulik in Nagano with his performance from Europeans that year.
     
  8. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    There was really no reason for Michelle to have peaked at Nationals in 1998 when you think about it. She had been off the ice for about two months because of her foot injury. In fact no one knew how well she was going to skate at Nationals that year. But you wondered even then if she could duplicate those magical performance in Nagano. And of course she didn't even though she skated well enough to win most Olympics.
     
  9. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    I know she wasn't really a gold medal contender and people would go crazy if she was an OGM, but Surya really could never hold it together in the LP at every Olympics she was in.
     
  10. essence_of_soy

    essence_of_soy Well-Known Member

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    Not a crazy theory, by any stretch.

    Surya won Europeans in 1994 ahead of Oksana Bauil with a solid 7 triple free skate. Baiul's technical level at that competition was about the same as her performance in Lillehammer a month later.
     
  11. robinhood

    robinhood Active Member

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    I agree with most of the other things, but do u really think Stojko or Yagudin were beating a perfect Kulik with a quad? :confused: Kulik's jumps were regarded as the most perfect at the time (well, for me they are still now) and he had an advantadge in the artistic note over young Yagudin and marcial arts expert Elvis
     
  12. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    I don't see how anyone would have beaten Kulik in Nagano. He was better than Stoyko and Yagudin in many many ways. I know you can imagine the others skating better but it doesn't change the fact that Kulik was just about perfect himself that night and probably would not have been beaten.
     
  13. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    While I doubt anyone was beating Kim, Rochette's Nationals LP in 2010 sure would've given the audience a jolt (though even Rochette's National score was below Kim's Olympic score)
     
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  14. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    ^ The thing is, hasn't Joannie ALWAYS peaked at Canadian Nationals? I don't remember a season where she didn't put down her best LP performance at Nationals.
     
  15. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    2007? Don't remember. She certainly peaked at Nationals in 2009 and 2010, though.
     
  16. gingercrush

    gingercrush New Member

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    God I love Harding's Loops. I'm sure she could have done Triple Loop-Triple Loop. I actually wonder whether Harding would have benefited from Figures still being included.
     
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  17. l'etoile

    l'etoile New Member

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    Definitely Debbie in '88 and Michelle Kwan in both olympic years. With her ability, two OG didn't look implausible at all.
     
  18. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Michelle's Nagano performance would have won in any other year. No she wasn't as free as she was at nationals but her performance was clean and well-presented. Tara just ended up with the luck of the draw (skating order) and was able to have a strong performance as well.

    I maintain my belief that had the skating order been reversed, Michelle would have won b/c instead of all of the 5.9s in presentation she would have had several 6.0s in there as well. But b/c she was skating early in the group, they had to leave room. Tara would have beat her on the technical mark (as she should have) but Michelle's presentation score would have been higher and she'd have won...But, the past is the past. I'm over the bitterness of it but I still believe the difference b/w gold and silver came down to the skating order that year.
     
  19. essence_of_soy

    essence_of_soy Well-Known Member

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    There are several theories that support this.

    Harding had a solid international reputation and if she had been chosen over Yamaguchi in 1989 to go to Worlds, chances are she would have won the event.

    Her figures were stronger than Ito, and she was landing a triple lutz combo in the short from 1988 onwards.

    Also, had she not been sick at US Nationals in 1990 and made the team, again, Harding could have won the world title with a strong all round skate.

    Regarding her triple loop, apparently she could land a quadruple loop in practice.
     
  20. PashaFan

    PashaFan Active Member

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    Even though she never got close to an Olympic Gold medal or podium, Sussana Poykio's Munich program was so beautiful. It's a pity she could not have taken it further.
    She really did skate to a difficult subject with true emotion.
    If only she had been a faster & more consistent skater :(
     
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  21. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    Agree with MK for 2002. Her Free Skate at 2002 nationals would have been enough for at least 2nd place.

    In 1998-I believe MK's Nationals free skate was better than Tara's Olympic free skate, but with her skating first, not sure how it would have been marked? Do you think she would have gotten 6.0's that early? Or would Tara have just been marked lower on the 2nd mark?
     
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  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Regarding the latter I think she would have just received more 5.8s for technical merit in that case. It is quite possible/probable no matter how well she skated no judge would go higher than 5.8, 5.9 without a triple-triple and skating first. Tara only received 5.9, 5.9 from 4 judges so that might not have been enough, and yes some of the judges who gave her 5.9, 5.9 may have just come down to 5.9, 5.8. The marks are merely a tool to place skaters where they think thy deserve after all.
     
  23. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Last edited: May 12, 2012
  24. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I love Boitano, but I have a feeling that Orser's '88 LP performed at its best (minus the 3f step-out) would've won Olympic Gold. ETA - I now see that this thread is for programs that peaked too soon. Not sure if BO skated a better version of his LP earlier in the season ... )

    Kwan in '98 and '02. Her national LP's both seasons would've clinched it and made her a double Oly Gold Medalist. It would be interesting to compare '02 Kwan Nats LP w/ Slutskaya's '01 GWG LP (I think that was Slute's best attempt at Tosca?)

    Not sure if this would qualify, but if Yamaguchi's '92 Nats LP vs. Tonya Harding's '91 SA LP vs. Midori Ito's '91 TL / '92 Oly performance (can't remember which one was better) were to have been skated at the same time, who would've won.
     
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  25. essence_of_soy

    essence_of_soy Well-Known Member

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    In Orser's case, his best performance of The Bolt was at the 1988 World Championships in Budapest. I believe he earned several 6.0s for artistic impression as well, and won the free skate ahead of Boitano.

    Regarding Harding vs Yamaguchi vs Ito, each skater had 7 triples planned. Yamaguchi's program was the most choreographically detailed, but Harding's was probably the most exciting. Ito changed the music from the second half of her program prior to Albertville.

    It would have been a fantastic event if all three skaters had performed at their best. But the competition was skated pretty poorly, and Yamaguchi won the short program in France, while Ito and Harding missed their combinations.

    Anyway, I believe their jump content was:

    Harding at SA
    triple axel
    triple lutz
    triple toe / double toe (planned triple toe)
    triple loop
    triple flip
    triple salchow/double toe
    axel (planned double)

    Yamaguchi at US
    triple lutz / triple toe (turn between both jumps)
    double axel
    triple flip
    triple toe
    triple loop
    triple salchow
    triple lutz
    double axel

    Midori Ito at TL
    triple lutz / triple toe
    triple axel / double toe
    double flip (planned triple)
    triple flip (planned triple lutz)
    single loop (planned triple)
    triple loop (unplanned)
     
  26. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think Harding would have won if they had their best performances of the season since she was the only one who had done a clean LP that season.

    At U.S Nationals Kristi still took a big step between her triple lutz-triple toe combination, which would be a big deal as that was a huge combination for her technically without a triple axel. It is possible the judges even viewed her Albertville performance stronger technically than they would have her U.S Nationals since even with the mistakes she did that combnation perfectly, and combined with the late 2nd triple lutz seemed to give her very high technical value.

    Ito had some mistakes in her Lalique performance too, a big popped single loop and another one somewhere, even though it was still excellent.

    Harding at Skate America was flawless in the LP so probably would have won as long as she was top 3 in the short.

    If they all skated cleanly it is less certain though.
     
  27. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Although Orser's best performance was at the 88 Worlds, I think even his 87 Skate Canada performance might well have won in Calgary. He came awfully close to winning considering all the small mistakes he made and the lesser technical content of his program that night.
     
  28. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    OT, but I think all cleanly in all phases, it would've been 1. Ito, 2. Harding, 3. Yamaguchi

    Ito had a touch more going for her on the 2d mark than Harding, so even if Harding went jump-for-jump with Ito (which was still possible but a stretch, because Ito even w/o 2 3x's in her performance was opening with a 3z-3t and 3x-2t), Ito would've still won IMO.

    Outside the US, I think a clean Harding w/ a 3x and a planned 3-3 would probably have been able to come out ahead of Yamaguchi. World judges scored Harding better than National judges. Still, a clean Yamaguchi might've garnered tie-breaker points on the 2d mark cuz she was considered an artist. Who knows.

    Good Analysis. If MK had not had toe problems during the season, she may have done a 3t-3t instead of 2 3loops. But, a 3loop is considered a tougher jump. Wouldn't it just balance out?
     
  29. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Berezhnaya-Sikharulidze's SP and LP at the 1998 GPF would have won them the OGM in 1998- particularly the LP. It was gorgeous.
     
  30. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    ITA. I have said the same thing ever since that happened.