Oscar predictions- who should/will win?

Discussion in 'Off The Beaten Track' started by Vash01, Feb 25, 2012.

  1. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    The Oscars are less than 2 days away. We don't yet have a predictions thread, I believe, so here are my predictions.

    (Here is the list of nominees:
    http://oscar.go.com/nominees)

    Best picture:
    Should: Descendants
    Will: Artist (I am in the minority here)
    Dark horse: Hugo

    Best Director:
    Should:Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
    Will: Hazanavicius(sp?) (Artist)
    Dark horse: Payne (Descendants)

    Best lead actor:
    Should: Jean Dujardin (Artist)
    Will: George Clooney (Descendants)
    Dark horse: Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

    Best lead actress:
    Should: Meryl Streep (Iron lady)
    Will:Viola Davis (The help)
    Dark horse: Michelle Williams (My week with Marilyn)

    Best Supporting actor:
    Should and will: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
    Dark horse: None

    Best supporting actress:
    Should & will: Octavia Spencer (The help)
    Dark horse: Berenice Bejo

    Best original screenplay:
    Should: A separation
    Will: Midnight in Paris
    Dark horse: Artist

    Best adapted screenplay:
    Should:The descendants
    Will:Hugo
    Dark Horse: Moneyball

    Cinematography:
    Should & will: Artist
    Dark horse: Tree of life

    Editing:
    Should: Girl with the dragon tattoo
    Will:Descendants
    Dark horse: Artist

    Art direction:
    Should: Hugo
    Will: Artist
    Dark horse: Midnight in Paris

    Costumes:
    Should:Midnight in Paris
    Will: Artist
    Dark horse: Midnight in Paris

    Music:
    Should: Midnight in Paris
    Will: Artist
    Dark horse: Tree of life

    Make up:
    Should & will: Iron lady
    Dark horse: Harry Potter

    Best foreign film:
    Should & will: A separation (it's the only one I have seen)
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2012
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  2. mrinalini

    mrinalini Active Member

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    So far, I've seen Meryl, Viola and Rooney, and Meryl was light years better than the other two. Not that Viola and Rooney were bad, but their roles just weren't challenging enough and were fairly one-dimensional (especially Rooney's). I'm appalled that Mara was even nominated, but I guess that's what happens when TPTB have anointed you as the next hot young thing. I've heard that Glenn wasn't actually that great in her film and Michelle seems to be mostly under the radar, so IMO the Oscar should and will go to Meryl. My, did she ever capture the bleakness and quiet desperation of the aged in what was otherwise a very mediocre film.

    Other WTF moments are 'The Tree of Life' and 'Midnight in Paris' getting so many major nominations. The former film is one of the biggest pieces of pretentious crap I've seen in a long while, and the latter is so lightweight and is far from Woody Allen's best. It must be a really weak year for movies if those two films can be nominated for Best Picture.

    Oh, and I agree about 'A Separation' - I haven't seen its contenders but it's a lovely film and should win. How refreshing it is to see a film that portrays Iranian society in an empathetic light at a time when Iran is being so demonized. But then, all the Iranian films I've seen have simply glowed with humanity - I urge everyone who hasn't to go see 'The Color of Paradise', or 'Rang-e Khoda' (it's on YouTube); it had this normally stoic viewer in tears at its very moving conclusion.
     
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  3. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    One dimensional seems to win Oscars lately...Sandra Bullock for the Blind Side? Really?
     
  4. soxxy

    soxxy Guest

  5. my little pony

    my little pony snarking for AZE

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    ita

    the help was very lifetimey, i dont feel the love at all. but it is very much like the blind side so i guess it will do well.
     
  6. Grannyfan

    Grannyfan Active Member

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    Some stuff I was reading yesterday from an entertainment site claims that The Artist
    is suffering some backlash because of Dujardin's appearance on Saturday Night Live. I didn't see the show so I don't know what he did.
     
  7. Buzz

    Buzz Well-Known Member

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    Of all those movies mentioned I have only ever seen Moneyball and The Help.
     
  8. sliver98

    sliver98 Banned Member

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    If i had a vote it would be Williams hands down for best actress the most difficult and expansive role of the 5, Streep is stuck in an awful movie that does not deserve any awards and the help was a hallmark lifetime movie of the week full of cliches plus Davis seemed to be channeling the superior performance of Whoopi Goldberg in the color purple. Anyway i predict Davis will win things can get very Politically correct at these awards shows nowadays.
     
  9. michiruwater

    michiruwater Well-Known Member

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    I agree with the OP, I would pick either The Descendants or Tree of Life over The Artist for best picture. I know TOL has no chance, so of the two frontrunners I would absolutely pick The Descendants.

    I don't think Clooney will win, though - I think Dujardin will. Both did excellent jobs in their respective films, however, and I would be fine with either nabbing the BA. That said, Clooney already had one and I'll be surprised if he doesn't continue to get nominated for the rest of his career (in multiple categories), whereas this may be the only shot for Dujardin.

    I preferred Streep to Viola Davis, but, again, I'd be fine with either.

    I don't understand why Octavia Spencer is winning everything. I don't think her role stretched any limitations or was terribly difficult. She was funny, yes, but Chastain was better in most of her supporting roles (her performance in Tree of Life is the one that should have been nominated) and Bejo was absolutely outstanding in The Artist with a much more difficult role that few could have pulled off. I'd pick Bejo for the Oscar.

    Plummer was fantastic in Beginners. No argument for me there. That movie was totally underrated.

    I would pick Malick for Best Director. If not, I would be fine with either Allen or the guy with the impossibly long name who did The Artist. Both were wonderful. I think if Allen didn't have the reputation he (justifiably) has, Midnight in Paris would be getting far more recognition.

    I would absolutely pick Tree of Life for both Score and Cinematography as well. But, obviously, I really loved that film.

    I will say, for once I am glad that there are three films in particular (Tree of Life, The Descendants, and The Artist) that, to me, were really outstanding this year - and I haven't seen Huge yet but intend to today. I can't remember the last year that I thought more than 1 or 2 were really great. Maybe the year that There Will Be Blood, Atonement, and No Country For Old Men came out, but my opinion of No Country has faded some since then.
     
  10. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Well I, for one, throught Rooney Mara was brilliant in TGWTDT. She fully deserved her nomination and I wouldn't mind if she took home the statue tomorrow night. My second choice would be Viola Davis, followed by Streep, then Glenn, and then Michelle.
     
  11. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    I am sorry, but I did not pick Tree of life for best picture. IMO it is the worst movie on the best picture list, and one of the worst movies I have seen this year. IMO Mallick should not have been nominated either; somehow the academy seems to love his type of direction. I know it's a love or hate type movie. I actually considered walking out of TOL. The only good thing about it was the acting and none of the actors got the Oscar nom for this movie (they got it for others). I even thought the cinematography was poor. It was overdone and it tortured my eyes. I preferred the subtle cinematography of Artist, Midnight in Paris, and quite a few other movies, including The girl with the dragon tattoo. The one thing I loved about TOL was the music- it was wonderful. I won't mind it if it wins the Oscar for score.
     
  12. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    I thought Mara fully deserved her nomination, based on her brilliant performance. I don't know if she deserved it more than Tilda Swinton or not because I have not seen her movie (we need to talk about Kevin). As much as I liked Viola Davis, I don't think her role was as challenging as Meryl's or Michelle's. IMO Meryl deserves this Oscar, but I don't think she will get it. Oscar for lead actress has a history of going to undeserving performances, in the last 10 years or so (Sandra Bullock, Julia Roberts, Gwyneth Paltrow- although she won more than 10 years ago). At least this year all the leading actress performances were phenomenal, so no one is undeserving this year.
     
  13. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Well yes, Viola's role was simpler. Probably the simplest of the whole field, but she delivered it extremely well. We'll see..
     
  14. Lorac

    Lorac Well-Known Member

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    I have a feeling that Meryl will get it mainly because so much emphasis this year has been placed on the fact it is close to 30 years since she last won an oscar and she really should have won more than 2 when you look at her body of work. She is very good in the movie but the movie itself is pretty bad!! Michelle Williams had the better performance this year IMHO but I never saw the Help so can't comment on those performances. I also think the Artist will sweep 3 of the big 4 - actor, director and film - though I did think the Descendents was a better overall movie. Christopher Plummer will and should win for Beginners. And I really have no opinion for the Best supporting actress role.
     
  15. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Last night Pierce Brosnan interviewed David (not sure of his last name; sounded like Carther...?), who claimed to have a 90% success rate in his Oscar predictions. His predictions were- Artist for best pic, best director, but Clooney for lead actor, and Viola for lead actress.

    One thing that has puzzled me lately is that the SAG awards which are a good predictors of Oscars in the actor/actress category, have had some surprise selections, like Sandra Bullock (how on earth...?), but she won the Oscar. They gave the award to Streep for Doubt but she did not win the Oscar (Winslet won, as expected). This year they picked Viola. It could go to any of the three top actresses in this category- Viola/Meryl/Michelle. I wish I had seen Albert Nobbs to be able to comment on Glenn Close's performance. Is she the dark horse?

    (ETA to correct the typo in Albert Nobbs)
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2012
  16. vesperholly

    vesperholly Well-Known Member

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    I thought she was FANTASTIC in Albert Nobbs and I'd love to see her win. Janet McTeer was phenomenal too, I'm hoping for her to upset Octavia Spencer. She was good, but I did not think The Help was all that great. Viola Davis was the standout to me, a much more subtle and challenging role.

    All this caterwauling over Meryl Streep not having won an Oscar in 30 years and she "deserves" another OMG world's greatest actress ... :blah: I'm not a fan of showering her mere existence with awards. I haven't seen The Iron Lady, though,
     
  17. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    I can COMPLETELY see your point of view especially if Meryl's acting isn't high on your list BUT think about it from another perspective. I am tired of seeing Meryl passed over to give awards to 2nd rate performances because everyone thinks Meryl will have plenty more shots to win Oscars. Other side of the coin...
     
  18. Lorac

    Lorac Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. This is a huge issue I have with the Oscars - giving a mediocre actress/actor an oscar because they have managed to have a halfway decent performance which no-one expected them to do and which they never replicated (remember Helen Hunt in As Good as it Gets) whilst depriving a much better performance because everyone says - 'oh they'll get nominated again'!!
     
  19. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    How can you make that statement if you have not even seen the movie?
     
  20. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Count me in too. I didn't even think Helen Hunt deserved the Oscar for As good as it gets (I think Judi Dench -Mrs.Brown-was passed over that year, and then given a supporting actress Oscar the following year for what was basically a cameo role). The real travesty was Sandra Bullock winning because she may never have another chance to win an Oscar. Actually Sandra did pretty well in Crash and this year's nominated film, in supporting roles. Also Julia Roberts being given an Oscar because she really needs it on her resume, or Paltrow given he award for a fluff role in SIP over two actresses (Brazilian actress plus Cate Blanchett)....the list goes on and on. Streep has been robbed of a deserving Oscar quite a few times to give others a chance, as per the academy. If she has the best performance of the year, let her win! No other actress of our era has given consistently great performances over 30+ years, the way Streep has given. There are many two-time Oscar winners, and I hate seeing her in that group. This year at least the best actress category is very competitive, so it won't be a robbery if she does not win, but is she ever going to win? There will always be other great performances.
     
  21. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    Well we know Meryl will eventually get a Lifetime Achievement but will people count that as a 3rd Oscar if she never wins again or do people see it as winning 2 and having one handed to you?
     
  22. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    The latter, IMO.
     
  23. soxxy

    soxxy Guest

    According to this story, Streep wants her pal Davis to win.

    http://www.rte.ie/ten/2012/0225/streepm.html

    Streep starts filming the Tony award winning 'August: Osage County' this fall, playing the pill-popping mother of Julia Roberts, so I have a feeling she'll be nominated again, soon.

    http://collider.com/meryl-streep-julia-roberts-august-osage-county/146006/

    http://www.simplystreep.com/weinstein-company-announces-august-osage-county/
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 25, 2012
  24. sliver98

    sliver98 Banned Member

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    Vash Streep did not give the best performance of the year she was just mimicking tatcher did not get under the skin of her like Michelle Williams that was an embodiment and Streep will not win Davis has the oscar in the bag.
     
  25. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    I have had a feeling since hearing about August: Osage County that Meryl will FINALLY win another Oscar for that role. Wouldn't it be something if she wins 2 in a row after all these years of missing out? lol
     
  26. rosebrallier

    rosebrallier New Member

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    I say The Artist deserves to win Best Picture. It's a beautiful film between plot, characterization, soundtrack, and cinematography. Meryl Streep is a great actress. I'm just going to leave it at that.
     
  27. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    I have a feeling Mara "hasn't paid her dues" yet and so will just have the nomination.

    However, that and Midnight in Paris are the only nominated films I've seen, so what do I know...:shuffle:
     
  28. my little pony

    my little pony snarking for AZE

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    i didnt love the film but i loved glenn in it. there was nothing gimmicky or showy about her performance at all. she would get my vote if i had one.
     
  29. jenny12

    jenny12 Well-Known Member

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    Overall, I don't think this year was as strong a year as last year for films, and for the acting categories I don't care one way or the other, but for Best Picture:

    My favorite film this year was Melancholia which wasn't nominated, so I'd go with:
    Should: Hugo
    Will: The Artist

    I felt like Hugo and The Artist were similar in their nostalgic look at cinema, but I thought Hugo was more moving and creative. The Artist, IMO, was an entertaining film, but the story was pretty simple and offers just a patchwork representation of the silent film era.
     
  30. vesperholly

    vesperholly Well-Known Member

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    Because this kind of stuff comes around every time Streep is nominated, no matter what the role. "OMG, Meryl is nominated again, but she's sure to be robbed by another actress, whose performance cannot possibly hope to match that of the World's Greatest Actress!"