Olympic ladies gold medal winner

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Dec 26, 2013.

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Who will be the OGM in ladies

Poll closed Feb 24, 2014.
  1. Kim

    63 vote(s)
    67.7%
  2. Asada

    15 vote(s)
    16.1%
  3. Suzuki

    4 vote(s)
    4.3%
  4. Lipnitskaia

    10 vote(s)
    10.8%
  5. Kostner

    1 vote(s)
    1.1%
  1. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    It seems that the only skaters in serious contention for the Olympic ladies Gold right now are Yu Na Kim and Mao Asada, but perhaps Julia Lipnitskaia, Carolina Kostner, and Akiko Suzuki for various reasons have an outside shot at gold. Sotnikova, Wagner, are not part of this poll since they could medal, but not win the gold. Who would be your early guess to win the Olympic ladies gold at this point.
     
  2. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    I have a feeling it will be Kim or Suzuki. I think Suzuki might have a huge shock for everyone. I thought Julia might be the shock before but losing Russian Nationals kills her chances of anything more than a bronze or maybe silver at the Olympics. I still think she will finish over Sotnikova at the Games, but you cant win the Olympics after losing to someone like that at your own Nationals. Asada can still recover from losing Nationals and win the Olympics as she has more clout over a long time, but I just dont think she will skate well enough to. Her program is too difficult to skate cleanly, and she hasnt ever come that close.
     
  3. orientalplane

    orientalplane Mad for mangelwurzels

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    Thank you for communicating your wisdom to us poor benighted souls, O Mistress KimGOAT, the one true Soothsayer.
     
  4. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Kim, since I thought it was between her and Asada before but Asada didn't skate well at Japanese Nats. There's a small chance Suzuki will take it but I don't see her having the SOL twice in such a short period of time (although I'd be happy if I was wrong!).
     
  5. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    What would make me mad is if Suzuki outskated both Kim and Asada at the Games but the judges still gave her only silver or bronze. I agree it will be hard for her to have the SOL twice, but if she does she should be rewarded. Kim and Asada though are both capable of skating better than even her best, so it doesnt automatically mean she should win, but if they dont skate better than her that night she should.
     
  6. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

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    I don't agree re: Liptnitskaia; we have to remember that Sotnikova still has the consistency of pudding, and she could bomb in Sochi like she could have the performances of her life. I'm not confident about her going into the games. I think Lipnitskaia will skate clean; if that will be enough for a medal, that remains to be seen. Shizuka Arakawa was 3rd in Japanese Nationals in 2006 going into the OG, so I don't think your view is valid. Judges have shown to be pretty fair in terms of rewarding skaters that rise to the moment, despite tougher seasons (Denis Ten in 2013, Mao Asada in 2010).

    I think Suzuki will get a big boost of reputation from winning Japanese Nationals, but again, we will see. Hopefully international judges will be more generous with PCS; they have been conservative with Suzuki IMO.

    Does anyone know if Kostner will be competing at Europeans? It would be a good opportunity to figure out her recovery from injury and place in the world of skating ATM.

    :lol:
     
  7. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    Russian National ladies are not that strong, or atleast werent before this year. The Russian ladies were only 9th and 10th at Worlds last year when Julia was age ineligible and kept out. Julia wasnt a big favorite to win Olympics even before Nationals. So that is why I dont think you can not win there and win the Olympics. I already said I fully expect her to place higher than Sotnikova at the Games despite losing to her at Nationals, so it is not Sotnikova that is any problem for her anyway. It is that she needed to keep bulding her reputation up to it get it even close to Kim and Asada, and losing to not a very good skater at her own Nationals is a blow to that. The other examples- Arakawa was already a World Champion, Hughes in 2002 was part of a super deep U.S team who could have swept the podium at Olympics so 3rd at Nationals was no big deal.
     
  8. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. Julia's situation is different from Shizuka's or Sarah's. She has never competed at the senior worlds, so she needs all the push from her fed. I suspect they wanted to boost Adelina's confidence because she is such a headcase but they may have hurt Julia's chances somewhat. I still think if Julia wins Europeans and at least 2 spots ahead of Adelina (nothing personal against Adelina; just a hypothetical situation), it may raise her in the eyes of the judges.
     
  9. bek

    bek Guest

    First of all I disagree. The international judges are high on Sotnikova when she skates well. She finished ahead of a clean Julia in the short at GPF. I don't think losing to an almost clean Adelina is a huge thing for Julia.

    And I suspect the result would have been the same under an international panel.
     
  10. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Suzuki could really pull a surprise win if new-found confidence lights a fire in her while Yuna and Mao make mistakes. That would be wonderful for figure skating, doing away with the whole counting points and young jumping girls mentality. A woman of almost 29 winning with Joie de Vivre would make many fans fall in love with the sport I would think.

    On a realistic level, however, Kim is the most likely to win (consistency, reputation, and lack of weakness). The ladies event is going to be very exciting! I simply hope the most deserving skaters are rewarded :)
     
  11. Robeye

    Robeye Curiously curious

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    Amazing that Akiko has a couple of votes and Caro has none. Who woulda thunk it a year ago?
     
  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    That just means Julia isnt good enough to win the OGM, as some were foolishly hyping only weeks ago (despite that Asada with her worst LP of the season absolutely crushed her at the GPF). Someone who cant beat an "almost clean Sotnikova" even at their best isnt going to beat Kim or Asada unless they bomb. She also wont beat Suzuki if she skates like she did at Japanese Nationals, or Kostner if she skates close to her best. She might get say a bronze or atleast a top 5 due to her consistency, but there are probably 8 people who can beat her if everyone skates cleanly (apparently including Sotnikova too) and Kim and Asada have a mammoth mistake margin over her.
     
  13. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Every ladies OGM winner since 1948 has been on the World podium prior to her Olympic win. That is the case for every name on the poll except Lipnitskaia. If skating perfectly she couldn't beat an imperfect Sotnikova on home turf, I don't see her beating a near-perfect Kim or Asada on Olympic ice. She just won't be able to match their PCS scores.
     
  14. bek

    bek Guest


    Who thought she would beat Kim or Asada if they skated well.. I didn't.
     
  15. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Well some were talking about her having a chance at the OGM before Russian Nationals. I could see after the Rostelecom Cup with how it was judged, but the GPF should have already served as evidence enough someone like Asada doesnt even have to skate cleanly to beat her, she just has to avoid a total meltdown.
     
  16. Mirai4life

    Mirai4life New Member

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    The real question is: Will Mao Asada even medal? :)
     
  17. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    I think she'll get it together and likely medal. She needs to drop the second 3A from her FS though, or at least that's the impression I'm getting from general FSU opinion (and I totally agree).
     
  18. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The impression I get from Mao is she so badly wants that gold medal and will do anything to try and get it, even if it means a real risk of falling right off the podium. So I dont see her dropping the second 3A from her FS, and if others step up the way Suzuki, Murakami, and Sotnikova all did at their Nationals, yes she could wind falling off the podium if she continues to find it too much a reach to avoid some signficant point draining mistakes (the 3axels tend to drop a ton of potential points when they arent done properly) with her current jump layout. I think she feels she needs what she is currently attempting to beat Yu Na Kim for that gold medal though, and to somehow against the odds do it all cleanly.

    I could be right, and it might be more a personal best performance to end her career she is going for, and wanting it to either be at the Olympics or Worlds on home ice. However given her ambitious nature that too would probably mean she isnt dropping the 2nd 3A. She has done 3 3Axels well in competition before, and even did it on the biggest stage at the Olympics, and so for her probably feels the ultimate competition would have to include that.
     
  19. Sasha'sSpins

    Sasha'sSpins Well-Known Member

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    It's the Olympics. And it's ice. ANYTHING can happen.
     
  20. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I guess another question is which potential winners (or not even thought of potential winners) would surpass Hughes (or maybe Arakawa, but I say Hughes over her) as the biggest surprise winner ever should the Sochi ice get particularly slippery.
     
  21. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Interesting! I'd say anyone outside of Kim, Asada, and Kostner winning might trump Sarah. She was the current world bronze medalist after all.
     
  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Perhaps. Wagner doesnt have a World medal. Sotnikova has only been to 1 Worlds. Lipnitskaya has never been to a Worlds. The lovely Suzuki has one World medal, a bronze in 2012, but was 11th last year, and hasnt achieved a whole lot (at the very top level that is, not taking away from her great career) for someone who has been on the scene so long. Hughes was the most consistent skater in the World going into SLC, and a firm 3rd favorite (even if Cohen was getting more hype) behind a shaky that season Slutskaya and Kwan. In hindsight an upset was almost half inevitable. Arakawa was a former World Champion who could morph into a World beater at any moment, favorite Slutskaya was starting to struggle with her illness again and the altitude in Turin, and Cohen had never skated cleanly or won a major event yet.
     
  23. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    I suppose Hughes was viewed as such an upset due to the co-favourites of Kwan and Slutskaya being heads and shoulders above the rest of the field. Chances were that if one slipped, the other would take it, and vice-versa.

    Same here though, chances are that if Yuna slips, then Kostner or Asada will take it. Or if Asada slips then Yuna will take it, and so on. It will be a big upset if neither of those 3 win gold.
     
  24. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    I think Sotnikova and Wagner are more serious contenders for the gold than Kostner at this point.
     
  25. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

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    An average free skate from Carolina at Cup of China received ~122, and 68 in PCS. Comparatively, Wagner's FS from the GPF received 119, and Adelina scored 109 at Cup of China IIRC. Also, Wagner and Sotnikova would need the performance of their lives to hope for 68 in PCS. Kostner has greater potential than either. Judges know who they like...
     
  26. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Whether they are or not, if the question is what would be a bigger upset in a historical sense, obviously Sotnikova and Wagner would look like a much bigger upset winner than former World Champion Kostner. I cant imagine any of those three skaters winning the gold medalright now anyway though. Kostner jsut isnt having a good season and has too much ground to make up in too short of time, and the other two I just cant see it somehow.
     
  27. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Historically, I think it would be the biggest upset if Lipnitskaya ended up winning, due to her never having competed at a Senior worlds. She's the least established of the 7 or so "contenders" (Kim, Asada, Kostner, Wagner, Suzuki, Sotnikova, Lipnitskaya). Next biggest might be Sotnikova, then Suzuki. Biggest story would be if either Lipnitskaya or Suzuki won, for literally the opposite reasons as each other. Suzuki has basically been to more Japan Nationals than the amount of years Lipnitskaya has been alive, to put that one into perspective!
     
  28. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Double Post