Nagasu- can she win or medal at the Olympics if she skates her best

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Jul 18, 2013.

  1. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    ^i hope you're right. However, I just can't take the irony of crowning an unproven youngster "the next big sure thing" in a Nagasu thread. I look forward to being proven wrong, but excuse my reluctance to bet on kids. I've been burned too many times.
  2. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I see your point but Nagasu is very different in that she almost never was the best of her age group, not even amongst just U.S skaters. Even someone like Rachel Flatt regularly beat her since day 1. Caroline Zhang often beat her ever since juniors. Kim and Asada are not of her age group but were so young themselves they were going to continue for many years to come.

    Now we are at a point virtually all the older skaters are almost certain to retire post 2014, unlike post 2010, and Gold will be facing a bunch of skaters she is easily beating everytime out now, even with undeveloped presentation and problems with nerves at the moment.
  3. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Plus lets face it with skaters like Mirai and Caroline they both had flaws when it came to jumps. Zhang had that horrible technique that had to be be stripped down and redone and Mirai underrotates. Gracie has the jumps and technique. Now it's up to her to get better presentation wise and handle her nerves better.
  4. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Which doesn't seem to be happening for her. Barring injury, if she can land the jumps on practice ice, she should be landing them in programs. Her nerves are a huge issue.

    Did Mirai ever have problems with nerves effecting her jumps?
  5. morqet

    morqet Active Member

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    She lost to Li by 4 points at 4CC, to Tuktamysheva at SC by 9 points, and to Murakami (who I would put in the same bracket as she's only a year older than Gold) on each of the 3 occasions they met last season. Her scores at SC, and in the SP at Worlds and US Nationals and FS at 4CC demonstrate that when the jumps aren't working, there's precious little else for her to rely on to boost her scores.
  6. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    You appear to have a somewhat selective memory. Yes, Murakami and Tuktamysheva beat Gold at SC by 16.47 and 16.43 points, respectively. At 4CC, Murakami beat Gold by 14.37 points, and Li beat Gold by 3.76 point; 4CC started less than a week after US Nationals, with a long plane journey between the two competitions, while the trip was but a short hop for Li and Murakami with a big gap since their last competition.



    Yes, Murakami beat Gold at Worlds, but the margin had slipped to 5.48 points, and Gold beat Li by 0.4 points at Worlds, and at WTT by 16.43 points. Gold beat Tuktamysheva by 10 points at Worlds and by 35.87 points at WTT.

    What you've forgotten was that Gold beat Murakami at Cup of Russia 2012 by 8.67 points, so the record isn't 3 for 3 Murakami, but 3 for 4.

    BTW, Murakami may be only a year older than Gold, but she has way more international experience--2012-2013 was Murakami's third GP season, and her third appearance at Worlds, while both GP and Worlds were the first for Gold.
  7. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    Murakami is way ahead of Gold in style and artistry, but Gold towers over Murakami in technique. History (esp under COP) favors the girl with better technique. Even skaters like Slutskaya and Ando, two of the least naturally artistic and polished top-echelon skaters ever, relied on their technique and had extraordinary careers. There are no guarantees, but I'd bet on Gold to be more successful than Murakami going forward. Murakami's wonky technique will limit her scores like Asada, while Gold will be able to milk the GOE ala YuNa Kim.
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2013
  8. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    2012 COR: Gold beat Murakami. Gold won silver, Murakami was 4th.

    Scores and jump layouts:

    SP
    Gold (1st): 62.16 34.92 27.24 6.86 6.57 7.04 6.86 6.71 0.00 1 3fe+3t, 3z, 2a
    Murakami (6th): 56.78 29.01 28.77 7.39 6.79 7.14 7.36 7.29 1.00 7 2a, 3t+3t<, 3f<&#8595;

    FS:
    Gold (2nd) 112.87 54.77 58.10 7.54 6.93 7.32 7.39 7.14 0.00 10 3z+3t, 3fe-to, 2a, 2lo-df, 3fe+2t, 2z, 2a+2t+1lo
    Murakami (3rd) 109.56 53.22 56.34 7.32 6.46 6.96 7.29 7.18 0.00 5 3ze, 3lo, 3f, 3lo<+2lo, 3f, 3s+2lo+2lo, 3t*

    Gold had a messy FS with turnouts, doublefoots and two doubled jumps, yet she got a higher PCS score than Murakami, whose two big errors were the URd 3lo and failing to do a 2a.


    So it doesn't seem to be entirely true that if the jumps aren't there, Gold has nothing to rely on. But a must for her is performing well in the SP.

    Murakami has a chronic UR problem which has persisted throughout her career. She seems to overcome this somewhat with her personality and charisma on the ice. Perhaps Mirai Nagasu might realize that if she resurrected the personality and flair she showed 2008-2009, she would do a lot better both internationally and domestically. One problem I see with Mirai is that she isn't putting herself into her performances---it's as if someone is dictating in her er what she does move by move and Mirai herself is completely absent.
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2013
  9. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    When any skater isn't landing their jumps they are vulnerable. Evan Mao got beat by Gracie at WTT when she struggled with her jumps in the LP.
  10. morqet

    morqet Active Member

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    My point was that judgejudy27 wasn't right in her statement that Gold beat everyone of her generation every time this year.:rolleyes:

    And I don't think that "Gold had a long way to travel for 4CC" is a worthwhile excuse - it's something she'll always have to do, it's part of being an international skater and you have to be able to pull out a performance even if your last competition was a week previously on the other side of the world. Christina Gao was in the exact same position as Gold at 4CC and comfortably beat her.
  11. toddlj

    toddlj Well-Known Member

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    Can we talk about... I don't know, maybe NAGASU in this thread?
    LilJen and (deleted member) like this.
  12. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    What's left to say beyond its virtually a statistical impossibility for mirai to win Sochi. She'd have to have several much stronger skaters all make mistakes plus be perfect just to get on the podium, and lets face it, even if that happened, shes not a canadian skating in canada. In past 30 years the only ladies oly medalist who wasn't ever a world champ or world medalist was Manley, and unlike mirai, she'd at least made all of the world teams leading up to Calgary. Even once in a lifetime Cinderella story Paul wylie never missed a nats podium leading up to albertville. The poor girl has dug herself such a hole to climb back out of, even finishing in the top 6 in Sochi would be an incredible comeback story.
  13. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

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    Well, I think it is fair to say Gold sometimes beats her age peers. On the subject of presentation, it looks like her presentation (at least her PCS marks) are pretty much in the middle of the group of skaters mentioned above.

    Looking at the last time they all competed with the same judging panel (2013 Worlds), here are the PCS for these five:

    Murakami: SP 29.77, FS 62.11, Total 91.88
    Osmond: SP 29.54, FS 60.60, Total 90.14
    Sotnikova: SP 28.65, FS 60.63, Total 89.28
    Gold: SP 28.62, FS 60.18, Total 88.80
    Tuktamysheva: SP 27.75, FS 57.14, Total 84.89
    Li: SP 26.55, FS 58.13, Total 84.68

    So, there's not much separating the top 4, with the last two being only slightly weaker.

    Since we are supposed to be talking Nagasu, her PCS from her two fall GP events were NHK: 28.82 + 59.14 = 87.96 and CoC: 28.72 + 57.81 = 86.53. I think it is only fair here to note that there usually is a certain amount of point creep as the season builds to Worlds.
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2013
  14. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    It was Gold's FIRST 4CC, her FIRST Senior ISU Championship, and the FIRST time she had a competition within a week of Nationals. It's pretty hard to peak twice within a week's time. Gao didn't exactly peak at Nationals, and 4CC was her final competition of the year, while Gold still had two to go---Worlds and WTT.
  15. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't that Gao's first 4CC as well as her first senior ISU Championship (or does the GPF count) and the first time she had a competition within a weak of Nationals as well? Your second statement is correct, of course.