Nagasu- can she win or medal at the Olympics if she skates her best

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Jul 18, 2013.

  1. munow

    munow New Member

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    At the Olympics the tech callers tend be more lenient. I don't think she'll get called so many times unless it's painfully obvious--poor landings or obviously more than a quarter short.
     
  2. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    Is it? She's been in a slump for a long time, so it will be an uphill battle for her. But I hedge at labeling Wagner and Gold the new Kwan and Cohen just because of one halfway decent worlds outing. US ladies have been one long trainwreck since Torino and I don't think this year is any different. Those 3 spots could go to anybody IMO.
     
  3. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    I second that.
     
  4. change of edge

    change of edge New Member

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    Mirai is skating at The Ice in Japan this weekend and if she debuts her programs, we should be able to get a better sense for her chances of making the team
     
  5. b-man

    b-man Active Member

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    She is also skating Glacier Falls next week, along with Zhang, Hicks, and Keiser.
     
  6. LilJen

    LilJen Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't seem likely at this point that she'll even make the team, let alone medal/win, but I for one would LOVE to see her have a fantastic season, make the team, and make a splash (if not earn a medal) at the Olympics and/or worlds.
     
  7. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I do think this would be the best scenario for her. I honestly can't see her winning a medal in Sochi but I do think it's very possible for her to have a strong season, turn in great performances at nationals and earn that 3rd spot on the team. She'd be the only active lady to have earned a trip to the Olympics twice. Being a two-time Olympian is a great accomplishment in itself.
     
  8. wristflick

    wristflick New Member

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    Wagner and Gold are a lock for the team. It doesnt mean they are the next Cohen and Kwan, it just means they are the two best current Americans and by far have the most momentum and favor with the USFSA. Two skater likely to come mid top 10 have a huge edge over a bunch of women (Nagasu included) who could come 10th to 12th if they skate well, and can easily do alot worse than that if they dont.
     
  9. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I agree with everything you say BUT you have to remember we're going off of last season's results. The hope is that Ashley and Gracie maintain or improve their skating from last season...but there's no guarantee that that will happen. What if they have weak GP seasons and bomb at nationals? Then what happens? It's not likely to happen but it is not impossible.

    Those two have the best shot at those spots but no one's name is etched in stone right now. They'll have to earn that trip to Sochi. If they end up imploding and someone else steps up and steals the show, their reserved spot could go to someone else...
     
  10. modern_muslimah

    modern_muslimah Thinking of witty user title and coming up blank

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    I think the best case scenario for Nagasu at this point is to have a strong season, maybe earn an Olympic berth, build up some hype and try to regain momentum for the next quad. She wouldn't be the first ladies skater to rebuild after some disastrous seasons. I highly doubt she can medal or win the Olympics but stranger things have happened. I mean who thought Paul Wylie or Liz Manley would win their OSMs?
     
  11. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    A skater who comes 5th or 6th is actually similar to Kwan or Cohen in one sense as that is probably all Kwan and Cohen would be able to manage vs the current field under COP. Kwan is not a COP skater and people like Kim, Asada, Ando, and Kostner would crush her under COP unless they bombed. Cohen was a COP skater but her weak and inconsistent competition jumping would bury her vs such girls. Lower base value of jumps + lower GOE even on her clean jumps + several missed jumps per competition would be too much to overcome vs the people I mentioned, even with all her other amazing qualities which could probably outscore all those others except Kim and Kostner in a few non jump places.
     
  12. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    Wagner has been skating for year sand proven her inconsistency. Gold is new and unproven. Neither has anything close to the proven consistency that Kwan and Cohen displayed during their primes.
     
  13. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    Yeah Cohen was consistent all right. Consistent falling on her touche each and every competition and blowing chances for gold medals or sometimes any medal. Yeah I know she atleast had those chances which Wagner probably never will, and Gold wont for a few years, but that just shows she was a better skater in many ways, but for consistency she is the last one to model other than a consistent faller.
     
  14. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    True---but Gold is not in her prime yet, so it's not fair to compare her to skaters in their top years. Gracie does compare fairly well to Cohen in her earlier years, where Sasha's jump inconsistency kept her from achieving her goals. Sasha didn't medal at JW, didn't medal in her first GP season, and didn't medal at Worlds until her 3rd appearance there. Gracie's actually done a tad better: she won JW silver, and took silver at her 2nd GP event.
     
  15. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    Sasha was one of the most consistent skaters of her era. Sure, she consistently fell once or twice per LP, but she was almost always on the podium. Who was more consistent? Shiz? Caro? Fumie?
     
  16. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Gold has a great shot to be a multi World Champion. She is already the best skater of her age group.
     
  17. UGG

    UGG Well-Known Member

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    Sasha was consistently a gold medal contender every time she skated and was pretty much a podium lock. She consistently skated well enough to land on the podium between 2004-2006. She also consistently had a fall in her program so idk why you are saying she was not consistent?
     
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  18. morqet

    morqet Well-Known Member

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    Best jumper. She's still got a hell of a long way to go on every other aspect of her skating.
     
  19. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Well, I would say it pales in comparison to the current World Medalists, but if you are going to compare her to her age group (Judgejudy's remark) then, she is competitive in other aspects of her skating with the likes of Sotnikova, Tuk, Li, Osmond, etc.
     
  20. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Say what you will about Gold's presentation but she is already consistently and pretty much always beating Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, Osmond, Li, and all the top skaters around her age. This past season she was also inconsistent as heck, making tons of mistakes in most of her events, and STILL beat all those almost every time. I think her only loss to any of them was Osmond at Skate Canada. In years to come one can expect her to improve her presentation and consistency, and she will likely leave the rest of that group in their dust barring their doing something miracelous. The judges love her and give her very high scores, even for things she doesnt deserve them in, and extremely generous PCS for where her skating currently is at.

    I am not even a Gold fan but she alreadys looks like the one to beat the 2015-2018 quad. I am not saying she will win every event of course, but if she doesnt surpass Sasha's career it will be a major surprise.
     
  21. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    ^i hope you're right. However, I just can't take the irony of crowning an unproven youngster "the next big sure thing" in a Nagasu thread. I look forward to being proven wrong, but excuse my reluctance to bet on kids. I've been burned too many times.
     
  22. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I see your point but Nagasu is very different in that she almost never was the best of her age group, not even amongst just U.S skaters. Even someone like Rachel Flatt regularly beat her since day 1. Caroline Zhang often beat her ever since juniors. Kim and Asada are not of her age group but were so young themselves they were going to continue for many years to come.

    Now we are at a point virtually all the older skaters are almost certain to retire post 2014, unlike post 2010, and Gold will be facing a bunch of skaters she is easily beating everytime out now, even with undeveloped presentation and problems with nerves at the moment.
     
  23. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Plus lets face it with skaters like Mirai and Caroline they both had flaws when it came to jumps. Zhang had that horrible technique that had to be be stripped down and redone and Mirai underrotates. Gracie has the jumps and technique. Now it's up to her to get better presentation wise and handle her nerves better.
     
  24. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Which doesn't seem to be happening for her. Barring injury, if she can land the jumps on practice ice, she should be landing them in programs. Her nerves are a huge issue.

    Did Mirai ever have problems with nerves effecting her jumps?
     
  25. morqet

    morqet Well-Known Member

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    She lost to Li by 4 points at 4CC, to Tuktamysheva at SC by 9 points, and to Murakami (who I would put in the same bracket as she's only a year older than Gold) on each of the 3 occasions they met last season. Her scores at SC, and in the SP at Worlds and US Nationals and FS at 4CC demonstrate that when the jumps aren't working, there's precious little else for her to rely on to boost her scores.
     
  26. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    You appear to have a somewhat selective memory. Yes, Murakami and Tuktamysheva beat Gold at SC by 16.47 and 16.43 points, respectively. At 4CC, Murakami beat Gold by 14.37 points, and Li beat Gold by 3.76 point; 4CC started less than a week after US Nationals, with a long plane journey between the two competitions, while the trip was but a short hop for Li and Murakami with a big gap since their last competition.



    Yes, Murakami beat Gold at Worlds, but the margin had slipped to 5.48 points, and Gold beat Li by 0.4 points at Worlds, and at WTT by 16.43 points. Gold beat Tuktamysheva by 10 points at Worlds and by 35.87 points at WTT.

    What you've forgotten was that Gold beat Murakami at Cup of Russia 2012 by 8.67 points, so the record isn't 3 for 3 Murakami, but 3 for 4.

    BTW, Murakami may be only a year older than Gold, but she has way more international experience--2012-2013 was Murakami's third GP season, and her third appearance at Worlds, while both GP and Worlds were the first for Gold.
     
  27. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    Murakami is way ahead of Gold in style and artistry, but Gold towers over Murakami in technique. History (esp under COP) favors the girl with better technique. Even skaters like Slutskaya and Ando, two of the least naturally artistic and polished top-echelon skaters ever, relied on their technique and had extraordinary careers. There are no guarantees, but I'd bet on Gold to be more successful than Murakami going forward. Murakami's wonky technique will limit her scores like Asada, while Gold will be able to milk the GOE ala YuNa Kim.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2013
  28. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    2012 COR: Gold beat Murakami. Gold won silver, Murakami was 4th.

    Scores and jump layouts:

    SP
    Gold (1st): 62.16 34.92 27.24 6.86 6.57 7.04 6.86 6.71 0.00 1 3fe+3t, 3z, 2a
    Murakami (6th): 56.78 29.01 28.77 7.39 6.79 7.14 7.36 7.29 1.00 7 2a, 3t+3t<, 3f<&#8595;

    FS:
    Gold (2nd) 112.87 54.77 58.10 7.54 6.93 7.32 7.39 7.14 0.00 10 3z+3t, 3fe-to, 2a, 2lo-df, 3fe+2t, 2z, 2a+2t+1lo
    Murakami (3rd) 109.56 53.22 56.34 7.32 6.46 6.96 7.29 7.18 0.00 5 3ze, 3lo, 3f, 3lo<+2lo, 3f, 3s+2lo+2lo, 3t*

    Gold had a messy FS with turnouts, doublefoots and two doubled jumps, yet she got a higher PCS score than Murakami, whose two big errors were the URd 3lo and failing to do a 2a.


    So it doesn't seem to be entirely true that if the jumps aren't there, Gold has nothing to rely on. But a must for her is performing well in the SP.

    Murakami has a chronic UR problem which has persisted throughout her career. She seems to overcome this somewhat with her personality and charisma on the ice. Perhaps Mirai Nagasu might realize that if she resurrected the personality and flair she showed 2008-2009, she would do a lot better both internationally and domestically. One problem I see with Mirai is that she isn't putting herself into her performances---it's as if someone is dictating in her er what she does move by move and Mirai herself is completely absent.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2013
  29. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    When any skater isn't landing their jumps they are vulnerable. Evan Mao got beat by Gracie at WTT when she struggled with her jumps in the LP.
     
  30. morqet

    morqet Well-Known Member

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    My point was that judgejudy27 wasn't right in her statement that Gold beat everyone of her generation every time this year.:rolleyes:

    And I don't think that "Gold had a long way to travel for 4CC" is a worthwhile excuse - it's something she'll always have to do, it's part of being an international skater and you have to be able to pull out a performance even if your last competition was a week previously on the other side of the world. Christina Gao was in the exact same position as Gold at 4CC and comfortably beat her.