Nagasu- can she win or medal at the Olympics if she skates her best

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by KimGOAT, Jul 18, 2013.

  1. Suze

    Suze New Member

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    This. It took me a long time to realize that skating is more than just technical skills and artistic presentation. Mirai will need to be perfect and then some in her first competition to climb back into judges's and USFS's good graces and rebuild that rep for herself.
     
  2. ks777

    ks777 Well-Known Member

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    No. Mirai hasn't gotten any better for a long time now. I was more impressed with her when she won the US jr title. To me she hasn't gotten better since.
     
  3. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

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    Oh, I totally disagree with this last part. When she won the jr title and even her first sr Nationals, she still looked like a charming junior skater with potential, not like an elite senior skater. She struggled with her first growth spurt, but came out of it a much stronger skater. I'd agree though that she has not gotten better since 2010.
     
  4. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    It would take huge splatfests by Yuna, Carolina, and Mao for Mirai to win the Olympics. I wouldn't place any bets on it. I hope she makes the US team, but there's a good chance she won't.
     
  5. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I do think her 2011 4CC's performances were among her best, though. Her LP score there was her highest w/o any extra points for a spiral sequence. If she were to regain that form from just 2.5 years ago, she would be battling Ashley and Gracie at nationals. Again, she would need to prove herself in the Fall and regain lost credibility
     
  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    4CC scores have the tendency to be a bit inflated, though. They are for everyone, so in that sense you can use the marks for comparison, but while Mirai's 129 point FS was a great score for a great program, Miki still scored 5 points higher for a program with no 3f, 6 triples total. That was a great skate for Miki, too, but 134+ is a pretty monstrous score for a program with 6 triples (as opposed to 7), no 3f, and a 3t as one of the repeated triples. In general, I feel like 4CCs scores at any other competition (except maybe Euros which also has the tendency to be inflated) average a couple points higher in the SP and around 5ish points higher in the FS than scores at any other international event. So I think Mirai's 4CC FS was about as good as her one from the Olympics or maybe a little worse (just because I think the Carmen program was better constructed and showcased her fiery, sassy side better than the Geisha program which I found a bit bland). And then subtract 5 points from that score and you get 124-125ish, which doesn't get her onto the medal stand at Worlds judging from this year's scores, and puts her in the 4th-7th range (Zijun was 4th in the FS with 127, Kanako 7th with 123). So even if she were to return to her best form from 3-4 years ago, it's looking like she'd be placing somewhere in the 5th-10th range.
     
  7. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, even if she does get back into top form, Ashley and Gracie (and maybe Agnes, Christina, Alissa, etc.) still will prove to be formidable opponents.
     
  8. butyrskafanatic

    butyrskafanatic Member

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    Mirai at the peak of her considerable talents, and skating at a level that could have won her the 2011, and maybe even 2010 and 2012 Worlds, still lost to Yu Na Kim by 40 points at the 2010 Olympics. So even if Mirai were at her peak, maxing out her huge potential, which she is far from doing these last few years, she would obviously need Kim to bomb like she almost never bombs for starters to have a chance. As it is with her current status she is a long shot to even make the U.S Olympic team and probably wont.
     
  9. butyrskafanatic

    butyrskafanatic Member

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    I am not a Miki fan but I thought her score at 4CCs was fine. The current judging system doesnt punish you much for leaving out a triple. Miki's 4CCs performance had extremely high quality jumps, much improved and very nice spins, and her best choreography ever, and was completely clean. It was also smartly code whored and had a very high base value. Yu Na Kim skating her best at events like the 2010 Olympics and 2013 Worlds managed around a 150 for only 6 triples and no triple loop, and only a couple points higher base value than Miki's 2010-2011 LP, so Miki with a 137 for her best skate ever is fine. Yes I know you will probably say Yu Na at her best would outscore Miki at her best by a bit (or some things more than a bit) on everything, but that is more than accounted for in a 12 or 13 point LP gap.
     
  10. butyrskafanatic

    butyrskafanatic Member

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    Miki is a 2 time World Champion. She has the same number of World titles as Yu Na Kim who most consider the best skater in history, and the same number as Mao Asada who is also revered as a timeless legendary skater. To achieve that in the same era is impressive. I often feel she deserves more respect than she gets, even though I still do think Kim, Asada, and Kostner overall are better skaters, but Miki is the best competitor of the whole generation apart from Kim.
     
  11. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I feel the opposite. I think the Carmen program was inferior to the Geisha program. Perhaps because I didn't like the cuts to Carmen. It failed to build to a climax which Carmen should do. Whereas Geisha had tension and drama to the music cuts.
     
  12. Amy03

    Amy03 Member

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    Take a look at Miki's international results, and compare, you will find out that the ONLY big title Miki has beside her two WC titles, is her 4CC title from 2011!!!
     
  13. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I agree. Miki needed superior skaters like Mao and Yuna to make mistakes to win her two World titles. Otherwise no matter how she skated she wasn't going to beat those two because she just isn't as good.
     
  14. Sasha'sSpins

    Sasha'sSpins Well-Known Member

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    If she makes it to the Games and is at her very best I believe Mirai has a fighting chance for the podium. At least bronze.
     
  15. torren

    torren New Member

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    It means you consider kim as the best competitior? But yhere are some greaters who have better career than she has, 1 ogm, 2 world titles. she has not enough number of big titles to consider as the best competitior. well It is great that kim was always on the podium in whole career includes world championship. It can mean that she had chance to win more world titles. But unfortunately kim lost some chances in WC where she was enough to win like she was at 2008 world, 2011 world. I am not intend to dimish her. Just I don't think she is considered as greater because her career. her career in terms of number of big titles is worse than some greaters.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
  16. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    In fairness, butryskafanatic emphasized that it was this generation of skaters he/she was referring to. No one in those terms has had more success than she.
     
  17. torren

    torren New Member

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    of course I was saying without considering possibility of her winning second olympic gold medal. there are people who saying like already kim got second OGM, It is ridiculous.
    There have been unexpected gold medalist in ladies event at olympic. Anything can happen. well... exceptively at 2010 olympic, favorite won SP, and lp, go clean, just won. but It was just rare case
     
  18. leafygreens

    leafygreens Well-Known Member

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    Mirai's best now is not the same as her best then, so no, she will not win a medal and I would be shocked if she even made the team.
     
  19. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I do agree with that. Oftentimes the best skater doesn't win OGM; it's usually the best skater of the night who wins. 2010 was the first time in a long time the best skater in the field was also the best skater of the night.

    Can lightning strike twice for Yu-Na? I don't think she needs to be 100% perfect to win gold this time but can she win again is the question. As of now it seems like it would be hard for her to lose but I won't say the OGM is hers...not yet. Even though most of us feel it's hers to lose, she still has to go get it.
     
  20. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion, she was the bronze medallist in 2010.
     
  21. kosjenka

    kosjenka Well-Known Member

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    I am waiting for the thread and poll about the worst off season in FSU history :D
     
  22. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    :lol: with all of the tread drift, for a split second I thought you meant Yuna and I was like "gurrl, you cray!" Until I realized you meant mirai.
     
  23. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I meant Mirai, of course...
     
  24. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

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    In terms of the elements, Mirai's 2010 Olympic free skate and 2011 4CC free skate were pretty comparable, but the 4CC GOE are mostly slightly better. (Whether this reflects better jumps or are just the usual generous "thank you for coming to 4CC marks", I don't know.) Both programs had two 3Lz and two 3T and 1 each 3F and 3Lo. (No 3 Salchow, grumble, grumble.) Olympics had three 2As, 4CC only two.

    Differences (with Olympic program element listed first):
    3Lz-2T-2T became only 3Lx-2T
    3F with 0 GEO at Olympics got an edge call at 4CC for-0.4GOE
    Switched up the sequence so 3Lo+2A and solo 3T became 3T+2T+2L and solo 3Lo (was this to get down to two 2axels? When did that rule change?)
    Step seq improved from L2 to L3.
    Sit Spin improved from L3 to L4.

    I agree with you that Carmen was a better vehicle for her. I never liked the Geisha program much either.

    As a matter of strategy, I think it makes sense to put the sequence on the less difficult triple because of the 0.8 factoring for sequences.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2013
  25. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Susan M, it would've been for the 10/11 year, so I'd say yes, the change was made to get down to two 2As
     
  26. HVS

    HVS Member

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    Again, please, butryskafanatic talk about THIS generation, not all time. It looks like you just wait for every chance to against Yuna's achieved, so ridiculous :rolleyes:
     
  27. DarrellH

    DarrellH New Member

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    Marai would need a Paul Wylie experience. Plus, under-rotation has been noted enough times, that I think judges concentrate on that with her.
     
  28. torren

    torren New Member

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    I agree that probably she will win. But I have a bit different opinion about she doesn't need to be perfect at all. There can be other possibilities. Even they are not so likely to happen.
    If she makes more visible errors than kostner, She cannot win. Even though Carolina doesn't have olympic gold and more success than her, Whatever kim fans say kim has the best career in this generation etc, I feel judges see them in same standard. Moreover 2014 olympic is held in Europe. European judges are known for so favorable to european skaters.
    Especially Reminds of ladies event at 2008 world where all judges were europeans and what Carolina's placement and score were.

    By the way I don't think kim can be 100% perfect at next olympic. About how she could deliver her best skates at last olympic, I undertand this way that just that days were her days. But once more? I think The possibility of it is so low.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2013
  29. euterpe

    euterpe Well-Known Member

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    Mirai would have to earn a ticket to the Olympics first, at US Nationals. That is a long shot.
     
  30. Susan M

    Susan M Well-Known Member

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    Let's be honest, it is pretty ridiculous to be talking about the wonders and relative merits of Ando or Kim vs anybody else in what is titled a Nagasu thread.