Mao must let the triple axel go for shot at gold in Sochi

Discussion in 'Great Skate Debate' started by Sugar, Dec 27, 2013.

  1. Sugar

    Sugar Well-Known Member

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    Mao must let the triple axel go for shot at gold in Sochi
    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/...el-go-for-shot-at-gold-in-sochi/#.Ur3NCbT40cA
     
  2. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I don't have a problem with her doing the 3A (solo jump) in her SP and doing one 3A (in combination, if possible) in the LP. Even if it's not positive GOE, she will be OK with even a 2 ft landing if she fully rotates it. She does not have a 3Lz3t combination, so she really has not chance of winning the OGM if she drops the 3A completely. Just a clean skate (without the 3A) is not going to be enough to beat Yu na.

    If this gives her a high risk high reward advantage, I say go for it.
     
  3. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

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    I totally disagree, it gives her a big advantage in the SP particularly, and usually she can place ahead of really good performances by skaters with only double axels even with a not-quite-clean triple axel, largely due to the higher base value (and that's even when other skaters do a triple-triple and she doesn't).

    For example, at Skate America she earned 7.07 points in the SP for her two-footed triple axel with mostly -2 GOEs in the first half and Ashley earned only 4.20 with mostly +1 GOEs on a double axel in the second half. And even with an underrotation call at the GPF she earned a point more for her triple axel in the first half than Adelina did for 2A with all +2 counting GOEs in the second half. She hasn't been skating technically brilliant free skates, so she needs any advantage she can get in the SP and the triple axel is a big one. She's been doing it consistently "well enough" in the SP that it does give her an advantage.
     
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  4. inskate

    inskate Active Member

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    1. Isn't this exectly the same thing everybody said before Vancouver? :shuffle: Mr.Gallagher seems to forget that the reason Mao went for 3A 4 years ago was the fact that the growth spurt made her 3F unstable and her 3Lz and 3S went completely AWOL. 3A gave Mao a silver medal and a Guiness record, which is something she wouldn't have achieved without it.

    2. Why on Earth would she want to give up 3A completely? She consistently scored over 70 in the SP and over 130 in the LP in her every GP event, which is something no lady has ever managed. She struggled at Nats, but that was after a hectic season and missed practice time caused by a chronic back injury acting up.

    I'd prefer her to go back to one 3A in the LP, though( perhaps simply substituting 3A-2T with another 2A-3T since it seems to me a bit risky going back to 3F combo as the preceeding choreo is different). That said, the decision belongs to Mao and her team. There might be a reason why coach Sato approved of this risky strategy. Perhaps practicing 3F-3L aggravated Mao's back injury? I noticed that at Nationals her loop combos were off, and it was a bit odd that she didn't go for at least 3F-2L (3F-3L was supposed to be a backup plan in case one of the 3As is popped), but instead tried to turn 1A into a combo with a toeloop.
     
  5. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    I would like to see Mao's 3A.:respec:If she wants to beat Yuna needs to do,
     
  6. FSUSF

    FSUSF New Member

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    Just out of curiosity, what is the success rate of her 3A? I mean, how many of her 3A's were fully rotated and ratified?
    When I see her skating, I feel like she only skates to beat Yuna, not to enjoy figure skating itself.
    Of course, every athlete should be competitive and try to beat other athletes.. but her obsession to 3A seems beyond that level.
     
  7. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    She clearly loves doing the 3A and I see nothing wrong with it. It just so happens that without it she has no chance of beating Yu na. She is not as consistent with it as Midori Ito once was (guess we have to go that far back in time for a consistent 3A), but she is able to land it, and wants to take that risk. It has helped her win some of the competitions. This is a weapon that no other lady currently has. Even a flawed 3A can give her a lot of points. It's like many men going for the quad even though their landing percentage in competitions may not be that high.

    Athletes compete to win; that's how they drive themselves. Of course they enjoy competing, so it's not like she is not enjoying the process - no matter how difficult- to get to her goal. Since Yu na is the front runner, every lady - not just Mao- is trying to beat her.

    The only thing I don't like is her back to back 3A's in the LP but that's how she wants to improve her chances of winning and it's her decision.
     
  8. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    :rolleyes:
     
  9. lauravvv

    lauravvv Well-Known Member

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    I agree with your eyeroll. When I see Mao skating I can also see that she does enjoy it. As for the 3A, I agree with Vash01 - she needs to do it, but it would probably be better if she did only one in the LP/FS.
     
  10. kathy sullivan

    kathy sullivan Well-Known Member

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    She should follow her heart - if it is not enough for gold then she will mourn but ultimately be ok with herself. If she does what others think she ought to do and it is not good enough then she will have a hard time forgiving herself. This is a decision only she can make and life does not begin or end with a gold medal - in the long run it is what you are made of and how true you are to yourself. Failing to succeed at what you think is your life's goal can result in a human transformation that allows one to know what is really important.
     
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  11. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    I'd hate to see Mao lose the 3ax but understand the importance of skating cleanly.
    So would she replace it with a 3-3 combo? She can't rely just on PCS to get her into the 200s, to earn the gold.
     
  12. rosewood

    rosewood Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely No. Jack Gallagher is a journalist who behaves like he knows everything although he doesn't.
     
  13. AxelAnnie

    AxelAnnie Well-Known Member

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    The problem I see with the 3A in the LP is that she has a great probability of imploding if it goes wrong. I think K she needs to skate smart.... And be clean.
     
  14. riveredge

    riveredge Active Member

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    well.. miki ando beat yuna during the 2011 worlds without a 3A.. she also beat yuna without a 3-3 and a flip.. i don't know about yuna going clean at the olympics..(of course i'm hoping she will be clean) but it's too good to be true.. back to back clean performances from 2010 to 2014?? we'll see..
     
  15. shuilee

    shuilee Well-Known Member

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    Remember that 2axel/3toe and solo 3lutz is worth the same points as 3lutz/3toe and 2 axel. Mao's team needs to play the code better.

    3axel
    3lutz
    3flip/2toe
    3flip
    3loop/2toe/2toe
    3loop
    2axel/3toe

    Her base mark for jumps is already much higher than Yu-Na with just 1 triple axel. It's GOEs that Mao needs to work on, not a 2nd triple axel.
     
  16. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    Miki was a much better jumper than Mao. She had solid triple jumps, except the 3A. Mao does not have a lutz and she often underrotates her jumps. Miki was much more secure and consistent in her jumps. Without the 3A Mao won't even beat a clean Carolina.
     
  17. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    This will work. I am not in favor of a 2nd 3A, but one is necessary in each program if she wants the gold on her terms, without hoping that somehow all other top skaters will make mistakes.
     
  18. eurodance2001

    eurodance2001 Active Member

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    The one that seems to be emotionless is Yuna actually.. She never really seems to be emotionally invested into her performances; technically untouchable yet emotionally empty..
     
  19. jenny12

    jenny12 Well-Known Member

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    I do not see any evidence of that. Why would she do the grand prix every year if she only cared about beating YuNa? I don't even see her obsessed with the triple axel. It's a jump she has landed in competition and is important to her. However, I don't think she drives herself crazy with her. She won a world title after she failed horribly on the triple axel but then landed every other jump. I just don't see this obsession.
     
  20. bek

    bek Guest

    I think Mao would be smart not to count on Kim messing up. Even if Kim's not perfect if its just one error and she has her 3/3 she still may come out on top if Asada doesn't have any big guns technically.

    I think in general, maybe Mao doesn't need three triple axels. Maybe one in the short and one in the long is her best bet. I think if Asada were to leave them out, and then Kim beat her, Mao would always have some regrets. There would be the huge "what if." I do think asking to land three is to much now. Who knows everyone thought she was crazy though in 2010 but her triple axel was more consistent than.
     
  21. missing

    missing Well-Known Member

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  22. leapfrogonice

    leapfrogonice Active Member

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    Thoughtful comments from Lori Nichol throughout the article. Always so impressed by how articulate she and Sandra Bezic can be in interviews.
     
  23. poths

    poths Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of layouts, why doesn't Sotnikova ditch the 3 lutz/3loop and replace it with another 2 axel/3toe. I've never see her miss that combo..

    2 axel/3toe
    3lutz
    3flip
    3loop
    2axel/3toe
    3flip/2toe/2loop
    3salchow

    Boom....much Higher base than Mao AND Yu- Na
     
  24. ioana

    ioana Well-Known Member

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    Man who wrote the article isn't exactly a technical guru. From the article about Akiko's win http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/...-mao-grabs-first-national-title/#.Ur79yva4uGQ

    Yes, apparently the 'e' for a lutz stands for a pulled landing, not for flutzing. So I'm sure Mao will follow his advice to a T.
     
  25. all_empty

    all_empty Well-Known Member

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    As others have said, she should aim for one in each program.

    She should repeat her two money jumps in the free -- the 3F and the 3Lo, and move the 2A+3T up while her legs are still fresh (it would have the same entry pattern as the second 3A).

    For example:

    3A
    2A+3T
    3F
    3Lo+2Lo
    3S
    3F+2Lo+2Lo
    3Lo

    That's 7 triples that she can do pretty cleanly, and excludes the possible negative GOEs she can get on a 3Lz or 3F+3Lo.
     
  26. inskate

    inskate Active Member

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    Thank you, ioana, for pointing out that tiny bit of technical wisdom. :lol: I missed it upon the first reading and it made me chuckle now. :D

    Not really. The above layout has 46.13 BV, Mao's BV for the LP with 2 3As is 51.76, for the LP with one 3A and 3F-3L is 53.06, one 3A and 3F-2L - 49.76.

    Yes, but that's not diffucult. If Adelina added 2t to one of her combos at TEB, her BV would already be higher than Yuna's. Although, yes, a layout with two 2A-3Ts would be smart - not only getting 2A-3T ratified with good GoE would be easier than managing the same with 3Lz-3L, but also the GoE of a single 2A is quantified by 0.5, while in combination with 3T - by a 0.7.

    I guess it's a reputation thing. For most of the female skaters a solid BV would not be enough, because without appropriate reputation they are unlikely to be awarded with really high PCS/GoEs. Going for a difficult triple-triple is their way of setting themselves apart from the pack; their "wow" element of sorts.

    Speaking of "wow" elements - I wish Mao'd go for: 3A, 2A-3T, 3F, 2A-3T, 3S, 3F-2L-2L, 3L. Very high BV (49.36 - almost as high as the one with 3F-3L), comparatively low risk and no need to tweak the choreo. :eek:
     
  27. poths

    poths Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the calculations inskate. Would you happen to know what Maos highest base value this season as actually been?

    Really like your final layout and I agree with your rep=high GOE comments.

    Interesting to see that with the 2 double axel rule, Yu-na has lost a lot of points.

    I wonder what
    3lutz/3toe
    3flip
    3salchow
    2axel 3toe 2 toe
    2axel
    3 lutz
    2 flip/ 2 loop or 2 lutz to end...

    Would it make much of a difference to current layout?
    I am glad there's a relative punishment for not having every jump in your arsenal. Disappointed to see Kim not try get the loop back. If Freakin Liashenko can do it (once in her career :p. ) then Kim can too...
     
  28. Robeye

    Robeye Curiously curious

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    Yeah, I would have loved to see Yuna continue to do the 3Loop throughout her career.

    The scores on her best skates are monstrous even without it. With it, she might as well move to the Mens discipline. ;)

    But if I had a history of serious hip injury, and was worried about the possibility of a career-ending injury with the stresses of that jump, and I knew I could win without it, then I'd probably make exactly the same choice.
     
  29. bek

    bek Guest

    I think Kim had some mental issues with it too.
     
  30. inskate

    inskate Active Member

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    Planned or actually landed? Planned - the one with 3F-3L obviously (3A, 3F-3L, 3Lz, || 2A-3T, 3S, 3F-2L-2L, 3L) as it has 8 triples in it. To compare (just the jumps):

    3A 8.50
    3F-3L 10.40
    3Lz 6.00
    --
    2A-3T 8.14
    3S 4.62
    3F-2L-2L 9.79
    3L 5.61
    __________
    53.06



    3A 8.50
    3F-2L 7.10
    3Lz 6.00
    --
    2A-3T 8.14
    3S 4.62
    3F-2L-2L 9.79
    3L 5.61
    __________
    49.76



    3A 8.50
    3A-2T 9.80
    3F 5.30
    --
    2A-3T 8.14
    3S 4.62
    3F-2L-2L 9.79
    3L 5.61
    __________
    51.76

    As for the jumps actually executed in competition (with GoE factored), NHK and GPF were pretty close, with NHK being 1.49 points ahead. The GPF LP would be ahead (despite the messy axels) if Mao didn't mess up her 3F-2L-2L combo.
    (Speaking of which, I really wish they'd change the approach to the combo, because (as it is planned to be landed right on the beats of the music) Mao keeps getting too close to the boards to keep the speed necessary to rotate the loops. At Nats she nearly run into the boards.)

    Some other calculations, just for fun & to have some idea what the layouts would be worth (using the GoEs/PCS actually scored this year, although they would be likely to be a bit higher for a visibly clean performance):

    3A, 3F-3L & 3Lz from 4CC, 3F-2L-2L & PCS from NHK, the rest from GPF:
    3A 10.7
    3F-3L< 8.50
    3Lz 5.70
    CCoSp4 4.14
    FCSp4 3.91
    --
    2A-3T 9.34
    3S 5.62
    3F-2L-2L 10.29
    3L 6.31
    FCCoSp4 4.07
    StSq4 5.70
    ChSq1 3.30
    ----
    77.58 + 70.23
    147.81


    3A from 4CC, 3F-2L-2L & PCS from NHK, the rest from GPF:
    3A 10.7
    2A-3T 8.60
    3F 6.10
    CCoSp4 4.14
    FCSp4 3.91
    --
    2A-3T 9.34
    3S 5.62
    3F-2L-2L 10.29
    3L 6.31
    FCCoSp4 4.07
    StSq4 5.70
    ChSq1 3.30
    ----
    78.08 + 70.23
    148.31

    The difference between 3F-3L< (4CC LP) and clean 3F-2L (NHK) was 0.8 in favor of 3F-3L< (with GoE factored).



    Yes, although to make up for it, the judges are much more generous with +3s for the jumps (which were an extreme rarity in the previous Olympic cycle).

    The BV would be a tiny bit smaller (41.29 vs 42.52), with some decimals of a point gained via factoring (for example, if both 2A-2T-2L and 2A-3T-2T from +3 for every judge, the final GoE for the first pass would be 1.5, for the one with 3T - 2.1).

    The most CoP-smart would be probably:
    3Lz
    3F-2T
    3S
    --
    2A-3T
    3Lz-2T-2L
    3F
    2A
    ----
    44.51, although I'm not sure how Yuna would feel about repeating 3F and doing a Lutz combo in the 2nd half.


    No one is more disappointed than me. I lost 3 Starbucks caramel brûlée lattes betting shortly before Golden Spin on the fact that she'll have 3L back this season. :fragile: Eff the Korean officials who said (before GS) that Yuna's programs are filled with better technical elements than last season, and "cannot really get better both technically and artistically." :mad: ;)
     
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