Julia Lipnitskaya's momentum ?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Oct 26, 2013.

?

Can she medal in Sochi ?

  1. Yes

    201 vote(s)
    75.8%
  2. No

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  3. 4th place

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  1. muffinbiscuit

    muffinbiscuit Member

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    I am not as wowed by Julia as a lot of other folks are. She has consistent jumps, but they are fairly little jumps. She has flexibility, but that's only one aspect of figure skating. Don't feel she has presence on the ice. I find her rather blah. No matter what happens in Sochi, I'd like to reserve judgment on her for a couple of more years.
     
  2. OliviaPug

    OliviaPug Well-Known Member

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    Can she? Yes. Will she? That's a big maybe. The pressure on her will be tremendous.

    O-
     
  3. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I think some of us are excited about the potential displayed by Julia. It's sort of like seeing a 13 year old Michelle Kwan skating clean performances with a 3Lz-2t combination, and wowing the audience, or a 15-year old Sasha Cohen showing her potential. Nobody is saying Julia is a complete skater right now, but the potential is there, if she stays healthy, and I find that exciting.
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2013
  4. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Tendency to lip and flutz.

    Not a lot of speed and power (probably due to her size) when compared against other top Ladies.

    She doesn't accentuate and hold her movements long enough. They look quite limp.

    She's quite an introverted performer. This year she got programs that play to that but some stronger performance skills would be good to see.

    She has a lot of strengths also (consistency in particular - Kostner might be a much better skater 'on paper' but when was the last time she landed all her jumps?) but there's still plenty to improve and work on.
     
  5. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    How do you lip and flutz at the same time?
     
  6. Skittl1321

    Skittl1321 Well-Known Member

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    Well, you can't do it at the same time, but there have been skaters to get an edge call on a flip and a lutz in the same competition. No, I don't have protocols to prove it- I just remember discussion at the time.
     
  7. McIce

    McIce New Member

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    Akiko Suzuki used to get edge calls on both flip and lutz.
     
  8. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Épaulement!!!

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    Not Julia--edge call on the lutz in the free skate and that's it for SC. Gloried US jumper Gracie Gold lips. Le shrug.
     
  9. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    The law of averages has to break in favor of a skater named Julia sometime. Maybe it'll be Lip! ;)
     
  10. Judge Dred

    Judge Dred New Member

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    Correct. It had nothing to do with any growth spurt.
     
  11. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ITA with all of that but those aren't really weaknesses...they are just areas she can do better. She's solid across the board and consistent to boot. I think she has a great shot at 4th or 5th if she can deliver in Sochi.
     
  12. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Semantics. ;)

    If everybody skated clean, I think that Lipnitskaia would end up 4th-5th. However, she's much more likely to land all of her jumps than for example Asada, Gold of Kostner.

    If you are on an inside our outside edge, you are skating on a curve. On the lutz, in the opposite direction to the jump rotation (which is why it's harder) and on the flip in the same direction.

    Whilst the edge will give you the momentum on the take-off, the difficult thing here is to control it. When you first start learning three-turns, a difficulty a lot of people have is controlling the edge and stopping the rotation after doing 180 revolutions. It's not something that competitive skaters have an issue with, obviously, but when entering the jump they are skating at high speed, the have to get the timing right on the entry and keep the right balance, which is not easy all to do at the same time, during the same split second.

    Both lipping and flutzing serve the same purpose. You roll onto the opposite edge in order to maintain the balance, preventing yourself from going on too deep a curve, and giving you stability.

    The second lutz must have been really close to a call also. She started to roll onto the inside edge just before take-off but the technical panel must have decided that she was still on the outside edge when she took off. No edge calls for flips this time but she did get some in the past. She seems to be a doing a deliberate entry to try to counter that. It quite fast and doesn't give her time to change the edge. I thought her flips at SA were a little touch-and-go as well although I'd have her in the clear too. It seems like she's aware of those issues and trying to fix them.
     
  13. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I agree with the first paragraph. Don't need to comment on the second. Anyone that knows skating usually knows all that. I would guess that's majority of posters here. My perception is that Icealisa's question was rhetorical but thanks for explaining, in case some posters don't know how the lutz and flip jumps are done.

    She did not get any edge calls at SC in the LP from the technical panel (she did in the SP), but you want to say that she lips and flutzes because she did in the past. She should get credit for what she did right in THIS competition, and errors from the past should not be counted against her. I am not convinced that she has permanently fixed the problem, and some good jumpers occasionally do make an edge error, but we will see if she is mostly consistent one way or another. In any case a problem like that can be fixed. In the past (before COP) skaters had no motivation to fix the flutz. Now they do. If a skater does not have mental toughness, it's harder to fix the 'pressure' problem. I am really interested in seeing if Julia can handle the pressure after early success.
     
  14. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    She's managed it well so far. Her junior year she lead after every competition and always came out and skated well. Last season she had injuries/growing issues so she wasn't as steady but she still skated okay. Julia seems to have returned to her consistency and steadiness from her junior season BUT it will be interesting to see if the pressure of winning senior gold will derail her at all. I thought she handled the pressure great at SC. She skated to win and that's the difference b/w her mindset and Gracie's mindset. I'm sure winning was in Gracie's mind but rather than motivate her, it looked as though it spooked her and she got nervous. Julia OTOH smelled blood and attacked. She's a clutch skater and that's what I like most about her...she's fiercely competitive and she has that focus and mental toughness to go out and execute when the pressure is on. Those kind of skaters are very rare.
     
  15. Dilng

    Dilng Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you. She had zero personality on the ice. Really no presence at all. She simply goes out and does her jumps. She isn't musical and she doesn't relate to the audience. She is flexible and she can do her jumps but blah is a good description. I prefer Elena Radionova over her.
     
  16. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    I'd rather Granny came back and got her medal.
     
  17. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I was in tears toward the end of Julia's LP. She definitely expressed the emotion in the music. Too bad you did not feel it. It was beautiful.

    Julia has an introverted personality. Radionova has an extroverted personality. They both have personalities - each her own- and I am glad that they are not trying to put on someone else's personality.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2013
  18. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    She cant win the gold. Yu Na Kim already has that locked up.

    Silver? Probably not. Too much to hope to beat both Asada and Kostner, and all the other contenders who have roughly equal chances to her (Wagner, maybe Gold, maybe another Japanese).

    Bronze? Possible. Maybe 35% shot at that.
     
  19. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Whilst I don't like Lipnitskaia's skating at all, I really admire her mental fortitude, her self-awareness and her no-bullshit approach. Interviews with her are always very fascinating.

    I am saying that she has a tendency to lip and flutz because the flips and lutzes that she didn't get edge calls for at SA didn't have clear and defined edges either (she got one 'e' for the first lutz in the FS). So it seems to be a bit of a roulette at the moment. Over the course of this season, we'll see how well she can keep this under control.
     
  20. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    Add me to the list too. Her presentation is blah, which is also one of the reasons I personally can't get over her skating to Shindler's List. Her overall skating skills are quite messy too. There's more to skating than just jumps and flexibility.
    She surely has a lot of potential but she should be a contender for 2018, not now.
     
  21. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I think a lot of posters here are missing the point of the poll- "CAN she win a medal in Sochi?" it has nothing to do with individual likes or dislikes (and I too have participated in that like/dislike or love/hate game- LOL). My answer to the question is yes, she can win a bronze if several top skaters make numerous mistakes and she skates clean. I don't think she can win a gold with even a clean skate, but a bronze should be within her reach, and with a lot of luck even a silver (much harder though). I am seeing some strong opinions against her, which may be a good thing. IMO she is viewed as a serious contender, or she wouldn't invite such strong criticism. It's all good. It will be interesting to see how she develops over the years. This entire season she is going to be a very young skater with great potential, but good enough to perhaps win a bronze.
     
  22. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    I hope the next quad is Lipnitskaia and Radianova fighting for most of the golds. I don't like Gold, she has no artistry, gets inflated PCS she doesn't deserve, and seems to be a headcase too.
     
  23. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    Really? How can we be certain that she will be there? You never know what's going to happen. She might be injured. Or the week before the competition she may have a flu and then skate while not being completely alright... I would say that it is extremely likely that Yu-Na will win, but I would never dare to say that she has it locked up. It is still too early to award the medals.
     
  24. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I couldn't stand her skating last year. She was way too cold and mechanic, her choreography was terrible and she skated as if there was no music playing. Luckily she has improved and is connecting to the music/choreography a little more BUT she still needs to continue to work on really projecting and feeling the music...she's better than last year though and, to me, that's progress.

    ITA about her mental fortitude, self-awareness and no bullshit attitude. :) She's very blunt and honest and I love that. It definitely fits into her competitive attitude as well. Reversing the results b/w her and Gracie, I think if Julia had won the SP and had the lead and a clear shot at gold in SC and ended up unraveling in her FS she'd have been absolutely pissed. I admire Gracie for taking the glass-half-full approach to her results in SC but I can't imagine Julia saying "I'm happy with the way I skated" after a performance like that, or "I'll take bronze any day"...especially when the gold was right there for the taking. It's just the difference in their competitiveness and their mindset...That's not the kind of skater she is. You can tell when she goes out there and skates, she's trying to win every time regardless of who she's up against. I totally dig that about her...
     
  25. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Active Member

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    Well if she somehow doesn't win it (very unlikely as you said), it wont be Julia beating her, that is for sure. And I like Julia more than Kim, but that is just being realistic. Julia doesn't have the skill set to beat Kim even an a slightly off day right now.
     
  26. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    I am sure Julia and Elena will have other young skaters challenging them in the next quad. If at all, it's going to make other young ladies even more inspired and hungrier. You can't write off Liza, Adelina, and others either. They are around 16-17 right now and they too will mature. I wish Russia had 5 spots at worlds next year, and they have just 2 at the Sochi Olympics. :(

    I am not crazy about Gracie, but I believe she too can develop over the years and challenge the Russian ladies. Osmond from Canada can't be forgotten either. It's great for FS. I do believe Gracie was overhyped last year, and our media will continue to do that. She will have to learn how to stay focused in spite of it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2013
  27. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    I really like both Lipnitskaia and Radionova; each has their own strengths and each of them stands out in a different way. But one has to be realistic. Russia has (and will have within the next 4 years) far too many great female skaters and there is the limit per country. While I hope that both girls will dominate in the next quad, there is a big chance that one (or both) of them may not even be sent to Europeans and worlds in a few years time. There are now 4 junior girls who qualified to JGPF and will be eligible in 2 years time. Plus there is a few semi-decent (Sotskova, Ogoreltseva, Yushenko) who did not qualify but may progress enough next season. And there is a few of them who are patiently waiting to be old enough to even compete at junior level; some of those will also be eligible for the Olympics 2018... I hate limits per country and I wish some of the good ones would change countries because I want to see them developing and competing internationally.
     
  28. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    I didn't mean to say that Julia has a chance of beating YuNa. What I meant was that there is always some (tiny) chance that she could get gold. YuNa may not be competing and Carolina/Mao may mess up. If stars align correctly for her...Saying that, there is also a chance that Julia may not even be at Olympics.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2013
  29. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    That's realistic. We don't know how Julia will do rest of the season and/or at the Russian nationals. I just hope she stays healthy and skates her best. I am going to feel very disappointed for the #3 Russian lady- whoever she may be- for missing the Olympics. Right now I would like to see Julia and Liza on the Russian team but that's just a wish.
     
  30. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Fortunately 'artistry' is not part of the judging criteria.