Julia Lipnitskaya's momentum ?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Oct 26, 2013.

?

Can she medal in Sochi ?

  1. Yes

    201 vote(s)
    75.8%
  2. No

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  3. 4th place

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  1. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I think a lot of posters here are missing the point of the poll- "CAN she win a medal in Sochi?" it has nothing to do with individual likes or dislikes (and I too have participated in that like/dislike or love/hate game- LOL). My answer to the question is yes, she can win a bronze if several top skaters make numerous mistakes and she skates clean. I don't think she can win a gold with even a clean skate, but a bronze should be within her reach, and with a lot of luck even a silver (much harder though). I am seeing some strong opinions against her, which may be a good thing. IMO she is viewed as a serious contender, or she wouldn't invite such strong criticism. It's all good. It will be interesting to see how she develops over the years. This entire season she is going to be a very young skater with great potential, but good enough to perhaps win a bronze.
  2. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    I hope the next quad is Lipnitskaia and Radianova fighting for most of the golds. I don't like Gold, she has no artistry, gets inflated PCS she doesn't deserve, and seems to be a headcase too.
  3. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    Really? How can we be certain that she will be there? You never know what's going to happen. She might be injured. Or the week before the competition she may have a flu and then skate while not being completely alright... I would say that it is extremely likely that Yu-Na will win, but I would never dare to say that she has it locked up. It is still too early to award the medals.
  4. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    I couldn't stand her skating last year. She was way too cold and mechanic, her choreography was terrible and she skated as if there was no music playing. Luckily she has improved and is connecting to the music/choreography a little more BUT she still needs to continue to work on really projecting and feeling the music...she's better than last year though and, to me, that's progress.

    ITA about her mental fortitude, self-awareness and no bullshit attitude. :) She's very blunt and honest and I love that. It definitely fits into her competitive attitude as well. Reversing the results b/w her and Gracie, I think if Julia had won the SP and had the lead and a clear shot at gold in SC and ended up unraveling in her FS she'd have been absolutely pissed. I admire Gracie for taking the glass-half-full approach to her results in SC but I can't imagine Julia saying "I'm happy with the way I skated" after a performance like that, or "I'll take bronze any day"...especially when the gold was right there for the taking. It's just the difference in their competitiveness and their mindset...That's not the kind of skater she is. You can tell when she goes out there and skates, she's trying to win every time regardless of who she's up against. I totally dig that about her...
  5. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    Well if she somehow doesn't win it (very unlikely as you said), it wont be Julia beating her, that is for sure. And I like Julia more than Kim, but that is just being realistic. Julia doesn't have the skill set to beat Kim even an a slightly off day right now.
  6. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I am sure Julia and Elena will have other young skaters challenging them in the next quad. If at all, it's going to make other young ladies even more inspired and hungrier. You can't write off Liza, Adelina, and others either. They are around 16-17 right now and they too will mature. I wish Russia had 5 spots at worlds next year, and they have just 2 at the Sochi Olympics. :(

    I am not crazy about Gracie, but I believe she too can develop over the years and challenge the Russian ladies. Osmond from Canada can't be forgotten either. It's great for FS. I do believe Gracie was overhyped last year, and our media will continue to do that. She will have to learn how to stay focused in spite of it.
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2013
  7. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    I really like both Lipnitskaia and Radionova; each has their own strengths and each of them stands out in a different way. But one has to be realistic. Russia has (and will have within the next 4 years) far too many great female skaters and there is the limit per country. While I hope that both girls will dominate in the next quad, there is a big chance that one (or both) of them may not even be sent to Europeans and worlds in a few years time. There are now 4 junior girls who qualified to JGPF and will be eligible in 2 years time. Plus there is a few semi-decent (Sotskova, Ogoreltseva, Yushenko) who did not qualify but may progress enough next season. And there is a few of them who are patiently waiting to be old enough to even compete at junior level; some of those will also be eligible for the Olympics 2018... I hate limits per country and I wish some of the good ones would change countries because I want to see them developing and competing internationally.
  8. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    I didn't mean to say that Julia has a chance of beating YuNa. What I meant was that there is always some (tiny) chance that she could get gold. YuNa may not be competing and Carolina/Mao may mess up. If stars align correctly for her...Saying that, there is also a chance that Julia may not even be at Olympics.
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2013
  9. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    That's realistic. We don't know how Julia will do rest of the season and/or at the Russian nationals. I just hope she stays healthy and skates her best. I am going to feel very disappointed for the #3 Russian lady- whoever she may be- for missing the Olympics. Right now I would like to see Julia and Liza on the Russian team but that's just a wish.
  10. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Fortunately 'artistry' is not part of the judging criteria.
  11. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    OK Gold has no presentation or anything that goes beyond strong jumps and ok spins. She may improve but right now the USFSA must be paying some good dough to get those PCS for her, even when she mistakes as well.
  12. RFOS

    RFOS Well-Known Member

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    How do you define "artistry" (I'm interested in any opinions)? The word "artistry" isn't in the PCS criteria but I think the areas that people consider "artistry" probably are captured somewhere (likewise "maturity," which I argued wasn't a judging criteria, but I think people use it as code for certain areas that could be reflected positively in the PCS. However, a certain "immaturity" or youthful exuberance can be fun to watch and interpret certain types of program better than "maturity" would, and valuing "maturity" in and of itself seems biased against younger or young-looking skaters. I don't see how "artistry" could be a negative, or even "not positive" in the PCS though).

    I disagree with those who say Gracie doesn't have good presentation though. She's not flawless or up with the all-time greats in that respect by any means at this point, but I think her presentation is generally quite good.
  13. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Gold has improved her posture and her arm movements are much softer. Both of her programs have a lot of upper body movement throughout and some transitions also. Her basic skating is very decent as well.

    It's a weasel word which means everything and nothing. That's precisely the problem.
  14. Dr.Siouxs

    Dr.Siouxs Well-Known Member

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    Well she's 18. Angela Nikodinov, Joannie Rochette, Brian Boitano, Shizuka Awakawa were all rather bland and awkward skaters at that age as well.
  15. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    Fortunately? I would love to have some kind of an "artistic impression" score in the judging. Subjective, I know, blah, blah, but without it, we end up with dull or simply dreadful programs like V/T's JCS winning medals and titles. You can interpret or "sell" a terrible program convincingly, but that doesn't make that program artistic in any way.
  16. Robeye

    Robeye Curiously curious

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    I would put it somewhat differently. Artistry is an architectonic word in skating, fundamentally necessary, without which most of the PCS program becomes an arbitrary grab-bag of unrelated features that has no internal logic and coherence, no fundamental justification or ground whatever.

    What "artistry" is not, however, is an operational criteria which is directly applied by judges in PCS scoring. That happens at a higher level of granularity, as represented by the component definitions and bullet points.

    IMO, any serious reading of the IJS bullets shows that the only thing that gives meaning and sense to a very large proportion of the bullets for P/E, I, and C is the concept of artistry (and specifically as a second cousin of dance, in the way that whales are taxonomically related to hippos).
  17. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    I am warming up to her after Skate Canada. Not even the short program music bothers me.

    The choreographic sequence though, shows exactly what she lacks - maturity and attention to detail.
  18. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Weren't we this excited about Sot and Tuk about 3 years ago? Time will tell.

    I would love more competition from Osmond, Gold, Cesario, Edmunds, Chen, Li etc. Some of the Japanese and Korean juniors look promising too. Dominance can't be exciting.
  19. giselle23

    giselle23 Active Member

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    Yu Na had 2 mistakes in her long program in 2011--the singled flip and also, she popped the second jump on her 3sal(?)-2t combo. This, by the way, is my favorite performance by Yu Na, despite the mistakes.
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2013
  20. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    I see what both of you are saying.

    My point is: There are words with more precise meanings relating to the 'presentation' aspect of programs. To give a few examples: Coherence, concept, purpose, creativity, originality. If you use one of those words, it puts you on a similar page and you can then make arguments for and against, facilitating discussion.

    If you say 'artistry,' I don't even know what you mean.
  21. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    You are right, I forget the singled double salchow at the end of the combination. So that was a 3rd mistake, albeit seemingly minor. Ironically given the margin of defeat that almost certainly cost her the gold medal too.

    Artistically it was my favorite LP of hers ever probably, although I also really liked Miss Saigon in the 07-08 season. My favorite programs of her overall are her 06-07 Tango short program and her James Bond short program though.
  22. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Julia Lipnitskaya should soar onto the Sochi podium if the panel is like this weekend's Rostelecom panel. On my HD TV I could very clearly see her underrotated first triple lutz and first double axel (the axel in particular left a full 180 degree mark on the ice), both of which were not called < but were called clean. Very disappointed.

    It is also clear she is being anointed based on her very large PCS for a very flawed FS. The PCS jump from SC to COR with a strikingly similar SP is also alarming.

    ETA: it's not just the calling on Julia's FS that was out of whack. There were all kinds of underrotated triples in the ladies event that were called clean. And very questionable calls across all events. Seriously the worst judging I have ever witnessed in the entire COP era.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2013
  23. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    Well, it seems that Julia actually climbed over Kostner's level. ;)
  24. elif

    elif Active Member

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    There is a stupid rule about 1/4 cheating is allowed for jumps. :scream: They didn't downgraded Mao's jumps because of this rule too.:rolleyes: I can understand maybe 1/8, but this 1/4 just so much. :scream:
  25. shine

    shine Well-Known Member

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    Really? This is Joannie at 17: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tAIbF0d51fE Gold's presentation has a way to go compared to this IMO.
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2013
  26. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    I agree, Mao has been credited with one or two badly underrotated Triple Axels this season. Disappointed. But the worst judging was Rostelecom. Everything else all season was not bad, just a few blips of madness like Mao's axel calls. Then this event went haywire...
  27. elif

    elif Active Member

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    Some other triple jumps of Mao should get < too. You can watch her NHK skate and see she is just turning on the ice like Lipnistkaia at COR. Why we have ''you can cheat 1/4'' rule? :wall: Skaters already getting benefit of doubt -rightfully-:confused:
  28. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

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    Hmm, Kostner scored 68 for PCS, Lipnitskaia 63 (controversially so)...that's a 5-point margin.

    More subjectively, there are dimensions between Kostner and Lipnitskaia. Kostner has the speed, flow, maturity, musicality, and choreography that you just can't convey as a 15 year old, and Lipnitskaia may have flow, but she doesn't have Kostner's speed and not near the level of interpretation. Even then, Oksana Baiul was a wonderful performer who became the music, but Lipnitskaia is certainly no Baiul and especially no Kostner. This is ladies figure skating, not "little girls".

    To think the 2013 World Men's title was won by a point or so...
  29. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    No doubt, Kostner does have speed, maturity, etc. but choreography? Where is choreography in her free skate? I was looking and didn't find any? Where are the transitions?
  30. Blondie12

    Blondie12 New Member

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    Julia's body will change in a year or two just like Elizaveta's did, she is fortunate in that she is peaking right at the right time, Elizaveta's is a year late

    That said, I am not sure how much a factor Julia will be in the future. She has a great chance to medal this year but will this turn into a Carolina Zhang situation where her body changes and she can't do those jumps? I suppose Caroline had bad technique to begin w but I think managing the transition from being pre teen to being a women is tricky. For some it never struck me that the body changed that much (like Rachael flatt) while for others like Elizaveta's or Caroline it was a very obvious (and sometimes quick) change. And we all know how that turned out,
  31. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    Not necessarily. Julia reminds me of Cohen - tiny, skinny, bendy. Cohen never seemed to hit puberty, Julia could follow the same path.
    hanca and (deleted member) like this.
  32. koatcue

    koatcue New Member

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    That's what Tarasova said! The 1st time she saw her was in 2011 and she said then that Julia had a unique body type she only saw on Cohen
  33. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    Here's hoping.
  34. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Extreme flexibility often leads to instability in jumping - think Cohen and Czisny, or even Nagasu and Zhang. And it's not like Lip had such good technique to begin with. I don't think she will grow a lot, but her technique will likely go to whack when she gets nervous (like at COR).
  35. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I find these negative predictions rather amusing, particularly comparisons with Caroline Zhang. How many GPs did Caroline win? It takes more than flexibility to win, and Julia has already shown that she is a competitor. Nobody can really predict what will happen in a few years. I would like Julia to skate two great programs in Sochi just to silence the critics. I don't want her to win the OGM because her motivation may not be as intense as it is now, but any other color medal in Sochi will be great.
  36. Sasha'sSpins

    Sasha'sSpins Well-Known Member

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    Sonja Henie. :D
  37. t.mann

    t.mann New Member

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    Watching the COR judging, [Russia at Sochi : team(gold), pairs(gold), men(bronze), ladies(silver), dance(bronze)] results do not look unrealistic.
    Putin & RSF seem to want an all-discipline(event)-podium.
  38. VarBar

    VarBar Well-Known Member

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    :lol:

    Whatever Putin wants, Putin gets, make no mistake about it.:sekret:;)
  39. dinakt

    dinakt Well-Known Member

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    I think a Russian on podium in Men's is not realistic ( the rest would have to make major mistakes). The rest, doable; though Ladies' Bronze is more likely.
    As for Lipnitskaya momentum- I had my doubts early this year, but yes, she got it. If she is on podium on GPF ( very likely), and even bigger one. If she wins GPF, then sky's the limit.
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2013
  40. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Member

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    I think a Russian mens bronze is possible. Other than Chan everyone has been inconsistent so far this season. I wouldnt favor a Russian man for a medal now (whoever that man is) but could see a surprise medal potentially all the same.