Julia Lipnitskaya's momentum ?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Oct 26, 2013.

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Can she medal in Sochi ?

  1. Yes

    201 vote(s)
    75.8%
  2. No

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  3. 4th place

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  1. jlai

    jlai Title-less

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    Just assuming for a moment that Julia wins gold in Sochi. Has any skater gone on to have a great skating career after winning the big prize at 15? Or 16 for that matter?
  2. DreamSkates

    DreamSkates New Member

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    Well...Julia seems to be keeping up pony-wise with the top ladies at the Grand Prix events so far but with all the top ladies in the same competition (Kim, Asada, etc.) the results may be very different...unless enough skaters fall on their jumps, she could squeak by with her jumps like Hughes.
  3. falling_dance

    falling_dance The Scarlet Unlettered

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    Henie is the only one I can think of in singles.
  4. demetriosj

    demetriosj Well-Known Member

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    Maybe if you wish for this enough it will come true?!
    Domshabfan and (deleted member) like this.
  5. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    That would be one unfortunate consequence of her winning. I want to see her skating develop and to enjoy her career longer than for just a few more months. Selfish fan reason, of course.
  6. BigB08822

    BigB08822 Well-Known Member

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    Of course she can but I still wouldn't bet on it at this point. What she is doing, though, is setting herself up perfectly for the next quad. Surely all of Kim, Kostner and Mao will be done by the time 2018 comes around. Someone will have to take the reigns and she seems the most obvious choice.
  7. pat decaro

    pat decaro New Member

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    Remember the days people were hyping up Zhang, Nagasu, Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, etc. as the next big thing? Lipnitskaia had a big junior year, slowed down a bit, and began the Olympic season in a stellar fashion. The case might be that she's peaking now, and it may turn out to be now or never for her, who knows.

    To answer the thread poll, although I see several skaters ahead of her worthy of Oly podium, of course it's possible the stars might align for her in that night.
  8. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I just think comparing her to Mao and Caro at this point is a little silly. They skate with command and presence. Also, I think Lipnitskaya's competition once February rolls around will be Gold, Wagner, #2 Russian lady, Suzuki and perhaps Li and Osmond. Not Mao, Caro or Yu Na. Once everyone is together in one competition, it will be interesting to see how they score against one another directly, not just cross-referencing scores from different competitions. I think from what I've seen at 2 GP competitions, Wagner, Suzuki and Gold especially stand a good chance of moving ahead of her. Lipnitskaya is clean and those three ladies are close behind her with a few fixable mistakes
  9. pat decaro

    pat decaro New Member

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    Exactly. The time will come and it will be obvious how totally inadequate it is to think that Lipnitskaia can compete with the likes of Kim or Kostner on the merit of her skating. The scale of jumps, speed, coverage, presense, skating skills will make it clear, side-by-side.

    It doesn't mean she can't win a medal or even the whole thing, since ice is slippery and anything's possible. She is a very consistent jumper and a good competitor, with the nerve and calmness seemingly beyond her years.
  10. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    Julia's exhibition to Kill Bill http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQpExUKf-rI

    This reminds me a little of her Kung Fu Panda SP. I hope she goes in a voidy direction like this in the future (I wouldn't expect it during the Olympic season).
  11. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I am really curious to see how Julia handles the pressure in her next competition. She had a lot of success at SC. Will she continue to perform well or will she choke under pressure? I hope she can handle the pressure. Being only 15 may help when it comes to pressure.

    I also hope that she can stay injury free. Last season she had to withdraw from competitions due to an injury. I hope she can stay healthy and skates great in Sochi.
  12. Cherub721

    Cherub721 YEAH!

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    I think and hope she won't choke. IIRC, in the 2011-12 season she didn't fall once and I think popped only one jump. In the entire season. Last season she said she struggled a lot... got on the ice couldn't feel her legs and didn't think it was possible to jump. Still, she came away with senior GP silver and bronze, and another junior world medal. If she's in good shape this year, I hope she will continue to skate clean.
  13. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I love that outfit on her. It really accentuates the positions she gets into. I wish she would smile at the end. :) Too serious for a 15 year old!
  14. Meteorlight

    Meteorlight Active Member

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    I picked yes, as in she CAN medal, if she rocks it like she did at Skate Canada and one of the top three falters. Given the inconsistent histories of Kostner and Mao ... this is well within the realm of possibility.

    BUT, I wouldn't say she'd pull a "Tara Lipinski", as I highly doubt she can displace [a healthy] Kim for gold - in fact I see at least one of Kostner/Mao doing well enough for silver (my money's on Mao). I'm not even a fan of Yuna, but I just don't see her losing the gold (esp. to Lipnitskaya) if she shows up healthy - she's already got nerves of steel, and add in the fact she already has an OGM so anything she gets in Sochi would be a "bonus" - there'd be less mental pressure on her (plus she'd likely be well rested not having to compete in the team competition) ... anyway, I just don't believe Yulia can dethrone Kim as some have suggested, but sneaking in for a medal is certainly feasible.

    That said, at this point, if any Russian lady can sneak in for a medal, I'm thinking it's her. Really think she should be the front-runner for those Olympic spots!
  15. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    I think that was related to her sudden growth spurt, iirc.
  16. hanca

    hanca Well-Known Member

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    No, the injury wasn't related to growth spur. She fell on her head doing some spin in practice and had concussion.
  17. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Julia is a very consistent competitor with no real weaknesses. She has the difficulty in her jumps, she has spins, she moves well enough across the ice, plus she has that wow! factor. Right now she is my darkhorse pick for Sochi. She's a competitor through and through and that will bode well for her in Sochi. She struggled a bit last season but that was due to a growth spurt, injuries and the fact it was her first year senior. Prior to last year she was scarily consistent. It looks like she's getting back to that form...

    She's 15 but she has nice presentation for someone her age and she's grown in terms of her musical connection/performance this year though she does still need work. She lacks the presence and maturity of many of the more seasoned veterans (Yu-Na, Carolina, Mao, Ashley, Akiko) as well as the flow and ease some of them have but she's got the consistency and she's building momentum. It's very unlikely that she'll win gold in Sochi and if she does that means it was a really crappy competition. Julia can medal but she will need each of the Big Three to make several mistakes for that to happen. I do think she has a great shot at 4th or 5th place and if she stays healthy she's a dead lock for one of those two spots on the Russian team.
  18. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    She had a fall during practice. She hit her chin on the ice and was injured. For some reason it took a long time for that injury to heal, or may be she skipped the remaining competitions as a precaution. Nice to see her back strong.
  19. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    OOPS. I didn't see this before I posted in response to that.
  20. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    My main concern for Julia as having long term career success (past Sochi) is her name. Call me silly or superstitious, but no Julia has had a great career, after early success and great natural talent(e.g. Soldatova, Sebasteyen, and pairs skater Obertas who appeared on track for an OGM early in her career).

    I hope Lip will be break that trend, and have a long and successful career. i already sound like a fan, don't I? :)
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2013
  21. muffinbiscuit

    muffinbiscuit Member

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    I am not as wowed by Julia as a lot of other folks are. She has consistent jumps, but they are fairly little jumps. She has flexibility, but that's only one aspect of figure skating. Don't feel she has presence on the ice. I find her rather blah. No matter what happens in Sochi, I'd like to reserve judgment on her for a couple of more years.
  22. OliviaPug

    OliviaPug Well-Known Member

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    Can she? Yes. Will she? That's a big maybe. The pressure on her will be tremendous.

    O-
  23. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I think some of us are excited about the potential displayed by Julia. It's sort of like seeing a 13 year old Michelle Kwan skating clean performances with a 3Lz-2t combination, and wowing the audience, or a 15-year old Sasha Cohen showing her potential. Nobody is saying Julia is a complete skater right now, but the potential is there, if she stays healthy, and I find that exciting.
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2013
  24. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Tendency to lip and flutz.

    Not a lot of speed and power (probably due to her size) when compared against other top Ladies.

    She doesn't accentuate and hold her movements long enough. They look quite limp.

    She's quite an introverted performer. This year she got programs that play to that but some stronger performance skills would be good to see.

    She has a lot of strengths also (consistency in particular - Kostner might be a much better skater 'on paper' but when was the last time she landed all her jumps?) but there's still plenty to improve and work on.
  25. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    How do you lip and flutz at the same time?
  26. Skittl1321

    Skittl1321 Well-Known Member

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    Well, you can't do it at the same time, but there have been skaters to get an edge call on a flip and a lutz in the same competition. No, I don't have protocols to prove it- I just remember discussion at the time.
  27. McIce

    McIce New Member

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    Akiko Suzuki used to get edge calls on both flip and lutz.
  28. IceAlisa

    IceAlisa Port de bras!!!

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    Not Julia--edge call on the lutz in the free skate and that's it for SC. Gloried US jumper Gracie Gold lips. Le shrug.
  29. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    The law of averages has to break in favor of a skater named Julia sometime. Maybe it'll be Lip! ;)
  30. Judge Dred

    Judge Dred New Member

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    Correct. It had nothing to do with any growth spurt.
  31. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    ITA with all of that but those aren't really weaknesses...they are just areas she can do better. She's solid across the board and consistent to boot. I think she has a great shot at 4th or 5th if she can deliver in Sochi.
  32. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Semantics. ;)

    If everybody skated clean, I think that Lipnitskaia would end up 4th-5th. However, she's much more likely to land all of her jumps than for example Asada, Gold of Kostner.

    If you are on an inside our outside edge, you are skating on a curve. On the lutz, in the opposite direction to the jump rotation (which is why it's harder) and on the flip in the same direction.

    Whilst the edge will give you the momentum on the take-off, the difficult thing here is to control it. When you first start learning three-turns, a difficulty a lot of people have is controlling the edge and stopping the rotation after doing 180 revolutions. It's not something that competitive skaters have an issue with, obviously, but when entering the jump they are skating at high speed, the have to get the timing right on the entry and keep the right balance, which is not easy all to do at the same time, during the same split second.

    Both lipping and flutzing serve the same purpose. You roll onto the opposite edge in order to maintain the balance, preventing yourself from going on too deep a curve, and giving you stability.

    The second lutz must have been really close to a call also. She started to roll onto the inside edge just before take-off but the technical panel must have decided that she was still on the outside edge when she took off. No edge calls for flips this time but she did get some in the past. She seems to be a doing a deliberate entry to try to counter that. It quite fast and doesn't give her time to change the edge. I thought her flips at SA were a little touch-and-go as well although I'd have her in the clear too. It seems like she's aware of those issues and trying to fix them.
  33. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I agree with the first paragraph. Don't need to comment on the second. Anyone that knows skating usually knows all that. I would guess that's majority of posters here. My perception is that Icealisa's question was rhetorical but thanks for explaining, in case some posters don't know how the lutz and flip jumps are done.

    She did not get any edge calls at SC in the LP from the technical panel (she did in the SP), but you want to say that she lips and flutzes because she did in the past. She should get credit for what she did right in THIS competition, and errors from the past should not be counted against her. I am not convinced that she has permanently fixed the problem, and some good jumpers occasionally do make an edge error, but we will see if she is mostly consistent one way or another. In any case a problem like that can be fixed. In the past (before COP) skaters had no motivation to fix the flutz. Now they do. If a skater does not have mental toughness, it's harder to fix the 'pressure' problem. I am really interested in seeing if Julia can handle the pressure after early success.
  34. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    She's managed it well so far. Her junior year she lead after every competition and always came out and skated well. Last season she had injuries/growing issues so she wasn't as steady but she still skated okay. Julia seems to have returned to her consistency and steadiness from her junior season BUT it will be interesting to see if the pressure of winning senior gold will derail her at all. I thought she handled the pressure great at SC. She skated to win and that's the difference b/w her mindset and Gracie's mindset. I'm sure winning was in Gracie's mind but rather than motivate her, it looked as though it spooked her and she got nervous. Julia OTOH smelled blood and attacked. She's a clutch skater and that's what I like most about her...she's fiercely competitive and she has that focus and mental toughness to go out and execute when the pressure is on. Those kind of skaters are very rare.
  35. Dilng

    Dilng Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you. She had zero personality on the ice. Really no presence at all. She simply goes out and does her jumps. She isn't musical and she doesn't relate to the audience. She is flexible and she can do her jumps but blah is a good description. I prefer Elena Radionova over her.
  36. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    I'd rather Granny came back and got her medal.
  37. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I was in tears toward the end of Julia's LP. She definitely expressed the emotion in the music. Too bad you did not feel it. It was beautiful.

    Julia has an introverted personality. Radionova has an extroverted personality. They both have personalities - each her own- and I am glad that they are not trying to put on someone else's personality.
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2013
  38. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    She cant win the gold. Yu Na Kim already has that locked up.

    Silver? Probably not. Too much to hope to beat both Asada and Kostner, and all the other contenders who have roughly equal chances to her (Wagner, maybe Gold, maybe another Japanese).

    Bronze? Possible. Maybe 35% shot at that.
  39. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    Whilst I don't like Lipnitskaia's skating at all, I really admire her mental fortitude, her self-awareness and her no-bullshit approach. Interviews with her are always very fascinating.

    I am saying that she has a tendency to lip and flutz because the flips and lutzes that she didn't get edge calls for at SA didn't have clear and defined edges either (she got one 'e' for the first lutz in the FS). So it seems to be a bit of a roulette at the moment. Over the course of this season, we'll see how well she can keep this under control.
  40. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    Add me to the list too. Her presentation is blah, which is also one of the reasons I personally can't get over her skating to Shindler's List. Her overall skating skills are quite messy too. There's more to skating than just jumps and flexibility.
    She surely has a lot of potential but she should be a contender for 2018, not now.