Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Oct 26, 2013.
Team medal more possible.
olympic - Yeah, she does get more PCS than she should given her weaknesses but at this point, she is consistently landing her jumps whilst none of the other Ladies are. So she might not need a lot of politicking.
This is all I care about, honestly, so if Julia is able to help Team Russia (& more importantly Evgeni Plushenko; knock on wood) win a Team Medal in the first ever Olympic Team Event, and most importantly first Winter Olympics ever to be held in Russia, I"m happy! She can become the first Russian lady ever to win an Olympic Gold Medal as well as the second youngest in history (behind Tara Lipinski, who's birthday is June 10th versus Julia's June 5th).
I find it kinda funny in how much they have in common (similar last names & birthdates & body types). And Julia is born under a lucky star to be able to compete at the Olympics at age 15, just making the cutoff date, unlike Mao Asada. It really has to do with a great deal of talent but also an equal portion of luck. It's all in the stars, astrology.
Julia's Personal Best is now higher than Kostner's personal best...She may very well be closer to the podium than we think she is... Kostner and Asada both are better skaters, but they will need to land their stuff, and there is no guarantee they will.
I don't think she will win, but she could come 2nd or 3rd if Mao and Carolina don't skate that well. I have a feeling she'll end up more in the range of 4th-6th though. She may get a bit more nervous at an Olympics.
That's absolutely true too. Its the Olympics and she has no big international competition experience.
I'm sure that she cannot beat Yu Na. Mao, given she's not doing clean programs with all the jumps it's possible. If Kim has a meltdown, this girl could be the champion.
She's been competing at Russian senior Nationals since she was 12 and she's been competing internationally as a Junior since she was 13.
She has a chance to medal but she'd need mistakes for others. With her 2 perfect programs, Julia was still 5 points under Mao's score from SA, and that was put up with Mao skating conservatively and making a number of mistakes. Kostner and Kim have even higher PCS than Asada and can get more GOE on their jumps, so most likely, if Lipnitskaya were to skate like she did at SC, I'd say she'd wind up 4th at the Olympics. But if she skates a blinder and one of the big 3 falters, then she could definitely medal. To win gold, all 3 would have to falter, and when I say falter I mean would have to make multiple sizeable errors if Mao's SA score is anything to judge upon. So that's really unlikely, though not entirely out of the realms of possibility, especially with the event being in Russia.
More like a Sarah Hughes than a Tara Lipinski. Lipinski was co-favorite for 1998 OGM. Hughes had technically ambitious programs but was really only considered in the mix for silver/bronze and, at best, a pretty dark horse for gold, which is why her victory was so distressing surprising.
I think Lipnitskaia is kind of like Hughes -- technical goods to win gold if the three anointed ones fail. Also like Hughes, she would be looking to accomplish it on home soil.
Just assuming for a moment that Julia wins gold in Sochi. Has any skater gone on to have a great skating career after winning the big prize at 15? Or 16 for that matter?
Well...Julia seems to be keeping up pony-wise with the top ladies at the Grand Prix events so far but with all the top ladies in the same competition (Kim, Asada, etc.) the results may be very different...unless enough skaters fall on their jumps, she could squeak by with her jumps like Hughes.
Henie is the only one I can think of in singles.
Maybe if you wish for this enough it will come true?!
That would be one unfortunate consequence of her winning. I want to see her skating develop and to enjoy her career longer than for just a few more months. Selfish fan reason, of course.
Of course she can but I still wouldn't bet on it at this point. What she is doing, though, is setting herself up perfectly for the next quad. Surely all of Kim, Kostner and Mao will be done by the time 2018 comes around. Someone will have to take the reigns and she seems the most obvious choice.
Remember the days people were hyping up Zhang, Nagasu, Tuktamysheva, Sotnikova, etc. as the next big thing? Lipnitskaia had a big junior year, slowed down a bit, and began the Olympic season in a stellar fashion. The case might be that she's peaking now, and it may turn out to be now or never for her, who knows.
To answer the thread poll, although I see several skaters ahead of her worthy of Oly podium, of course it's possible the stars might align for her in that night.
I just think comparing her to Mao and Caro at this point is a little silly. They skate with command and presence. Also, I think Lipnitskaya's competition once February rolls around will be Gold, Wagner, #2 Russian lady, Suzuki and perhaps Li and Osmond. Not Mao, Caro or Yu Na. Once everyone is together in one competition, it will be interesting to see how they score against one another directly, not just cross-referencing scores from different competitions. I think from what I've seen at 2 GP competitions, Wagner, Suzuki and Gold especially stand a good chance of moving ahead of her. Lipnitskaya is clean and those three ladies are close behind her with a few fixable mistakes
Exactly. The time will come and it will be obvious how totally inadequate it is to think that Lipnitskaia can compete with the likes of Kim or Kostner on the merit of her skating. The scale of jumps, speed, coverage, presense, skating skills will make it clear, side-by-side.
It doesn't mean she can't win a medal or even the whole thing, since ice is slippery and anything's possible. She is a very consistent jumper and a good competitor, with the nerve and calmness seemingly beyond her years.
Julia's exhibition to Kill Bill http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQpExUKf-rI
This reminds me a little of her Kung Fu Panda SP. I hope she goes in a voidy direction like this in the future (I wouldn't expect it during the Olympic season).
I am really curious to see how Julia handles the pressure in her next competition. She had a lot of success at SC. Will she continue to perform well or will she choke under pressure? I hope she can handle the pressure. Being only 15 may help when it comes to pressure.
I also hope that she can stay injury free. Last season she had to withdraw from competitions due to an injury. I hope she can stay healthy and skates great in Sochi.
I think and hope she won't choke. IIRC, in the 2011-12 season she didn't fall once and I think popped only one jump. In the entire season. Last season she said she struggled a lot... got on the ice couldn't feel her legs and didn't think it was possible to jump. Still, she came away with senior GP silver and bronze, and another junior world medal. If she's in good shape this year, I hope she will continue to skate clean.
I love that outfit on her. It really accentuates the positions she gets into. I wish she would smile at the end. Too serious for a 15 year old!
I picked yes, as in she CAN medal, if she rocks it like she did at Skate Canada and one of the top three falters. Given the inconsistent histories of Kostner and Mao ... this is well within the realm of possibility.
BUT, I wouldn't say she'd pull a "Tara Lipinski", as I highly doubt she can displace [a healthy] Kim for gold - in fact I see at least one of Kostner/Mao doing well enough for silver (my money's on Mao). I'm not even a fan of Yuna, but I just don't see her losing the gold (esp. to Lipnitskaya) if she shows up healthy - she's already got nerves of steel, and add in the fact she already has an OGM so anything she gets in Sochi would be a "bonus" - there'd be less mental pressure on her (plus she'd likely be well rested not having to compete in the team competition) ... anyway, I just don't believe Yulia can dethrone Kim as some have suggested, but sneaking in for a medal is certainly feasible.
That said, at this point, if any Russian lady can sneak in for a medal, I'm thinking it's her. Really think she should be the front-runner for those Olympic spots!
I think that was related to her sudden growth spurt, iirc.
No, the injury wasn't related to growth spur. She fell on her head doing some spin in practice and had concussion.
Julia is a very consistent competitor with no real weaknesses. She has the difficulty in her jumps, she has spins, she moves well enough across the ice, plus she has that wow! factor. Right now she is my darkhorse pick for Sochi. She's a competitor through and through and that will bode well for her in Sochi. She struggled a bit last season but that was due to a growth spurt, injuries and the fact it was her first year senior. Prior to last year she was scarily consistent. It looks like she's getting back to that form...
She's 15 but she has nice presentation for someone her age and she's grown in terms of her musical connection/performance this year though she does still need work. She lacks the presence and maturity of many of the more seasoned veterans (Yu-Na, Carolina, Mao, Ashley, Akiko) as well as the flow and ease some of them have but she's got the consistency and she's building momentum. It's very unlikely that she'll win gold in Sochi and if she does that means it was a really crappy competition. Julia can medal but she will need each of the Big Three to make several mistakes for that to happen. I do think she has a great shot at 4th or 5th place and if she stays healthy she's a dead lock for one of those two spots on the Russian team.
She had a fall during practice. She hit her chin on the ice and was injured. For some reason it took a long time for that injury to heal, or may be she skipped the remaining competitions as a precaution. Nice to see her back strong.
OOPS. I didn't see this before I posted in response to that.
My main concern for Julia as having long term career success (past Sochi) is her name. Call me silly or superstitious, but no Julia has had a great career, after early success and great natural talent(e.g. Soldatova, Sebasteyen, and pairs skater Obertas who appeared on track for an OGM early in her career).
I hope Lip will be break that trend, and have a long and successful career. i already sound like a fan, don't I?