Julia Lipnitskaya's momentum ?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by love_skate2011, Oct 26, 2013.

?

Can she medal in Sochi ?

  1. Yes

    201 vote(s)
    75.8%
  2. No

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  3. 4th place

    32 vote(s)
    12.1%
  1. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    this looks a bit deja vu to me, Can Julia pull a Tara Lipinski ? she looks to regain her 2011 form
    can she sneak a medal in Sochi ?
  2. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    Yep, most definitely, another exact scenario of 1998. The kid (ala Julia) dethrones the lady (Yuna Kim) at 15, thereby becoming the second? or third? youngest Olympic Champion in history. Take it to the bank. And in her home country of all things! :eek:

    And here I was seriously worried at the beginning of the grand prix that Russia was going to have a hard time winning the Team Event because of their ladies finishing 9 & 10 respectively last year at Worlds. But the kid comes through! With V&T (gold) and Julia (gold), plus their top dance team winning bronze last year at Worlds, there's only Evgeni as the ? mark. Still, I think they'll at least secure a medal of any color for the Team Event. :cool:
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  3. caseyedwards

    caseyedwards Well-Known Member

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    Her tech was great -70- and the eurosport commentators are just confirmation what a perfect vehicle Julia has for some better pcs! Just total perfect vehicle! 70 yes and 60 pcs with Suzuki at 66 so I don't know if she can medal but she is banging on the door! Sub 50 tech would be needed from Mao or kostner .
  4. elif

    elif Active Member

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    She almost fixed her lutz and now she have more flow out of her jumps. Which mean she can get +GOE. She have good programs too. I can see her PCS moving up If she skate like that. But I don't think its going to be enough. Asada, Kostner going to get +70 PCS.
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  5. bek

    bek Guest

    I can see Julia's PCS climbing a bit, certainly not to Kostner, Mao or Kim levels. But going higher.
  6. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Tara had already been to two world championships before she won Olympic gold. I don't think the situations are at all similar. In fact, if Julia wins, it'll be far more impressive than what Tara did - beating the reigning Olympic champion and greatest ladies figure skater of the past 30 years without ever going to worlds. Not to take anything away from Tara's incredible skates.
  7. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    There is way more depth in Ladies skating then in 1998. You had Michelle and Tara and then everyone else who were fighting for 3rd.
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Can she win gold in Sochi (aka pull a Tara)? No. She is super consistent, but Yu Na is herself too consistent to ever make enough mistakes to lose to a much poorer skater than herself like Julia. Given the inconsistency of everyone else she has a chance against everyone else on a given day.

    Can she win a medal in Sochi? Yes, it is possible.

    Will she win a medal in Sochi? I would say 40% likelihood. Possible, but far from certain, and will be more dependent on how Kostner, Asada, Gold, Wagner, skate than how she skates.

    Will she be in Sochi? Yes, pack her bags already. No way she isnt going.
  9. bek

    bek Guest

    Well the ice is slippery I think she'd need some help from Kim to win. But who knows where Kim's at. I do think if Kim, Asada, and Kostner don't show up, she's got a shot at the World Title.....But not to jinx her.
  10. liv

    liv Well-Known Member

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    You never know what can happen. She has the ability to be on the podium. I said 2 years ago she could be on the podium...you never know where the stars will align and who they will align for.... what an amazing thing for Russia (and obviously her) if that happened.
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  11. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    I think she has a decent shot at the podium. She is building momentum, she is very consistent, the Olympics are in her home country. Mao and Carolina are pretty much NEVER clean, it just depends on how many mistakes they make. I think we'll see Julia's PCS rise steadily thru the season, and get an additional bump in Sochi. Personally, I'd prefer to see more powerful, mature person with bigger jumps on the podium.
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  12. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    We do know Kim never bombs. Only Asada, Kostner, or Ando have ever beaten her since Skate Canada 2006 where she lost to Rochette and Suguri in her debut event. Nobody is a robot and Kim doesnt always skate cleanly, but unless you are good enough to beat Kim making 2 mistakes (which Julia isnt), if you yourself skate cleanly, you will never beat her.

    Anyway at this point there are still quite a few who have a chance of beating a clean Julia. Based on the scoring Gold and Suzuki probably would have (yes I know a clean Gold is super unlikely). That might change as she likely garners higher scores if she keeps up her consistency, and keeps improving. Judges love consistent skaters.

    I agree she could win the post Olympic Worlds.
  13. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Could we put Julia's competitive spirit into Gracie? :slinkaway
  14. bek

    bek Guest

    I remember some Yu na bombs.
  15. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

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    Kim lost the 2010 World title because she completely missed the layback spin in her SP. Anything can happen.
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  16. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    Kim was mentally exhausted at those Worlds after the Olympics and should never have even shown up to compete. She didn't look right in the SP and made bizarre mistakes. Guaranteed if Yuna is healthy and trained she won't be screwing up like that again in Sochi.
  17. bek

    bek Guest

    Well absolutely but you never know what could happen. My suspicion is that Kim won't show up, if Kim's not prepared to win.
  18. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    I expect Yu na to be fully prepared. I don't see Julia winning the gold but a silver or bronze is not out of the question if she continues to skate great and delvers two clean performances in Sochi. If she actually wins (a near impossibility, IMO because it would require a ton of skaters to have a melt down), it would be a Sarah Hughes moment, rather than a Tara Lipinski moment.

    In any case, this was just one competition. Let us see how she skates rest of the season. BTW has Julia gone through puberty already?
  19. bek

    bek Guest

    Exactly and I think that would be like winning Gold for Julia. Even a top 4/5 would be great.
  20. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Other than 2010 Worlds I dont remember a competition she ever made more than 2 mistakes which is where my 2 mistakes comment came from:

    2007 Worlds- 2 mistakes overall, 2 falls in LP
    2008 Worlds- 2 mistakes, a fall on lutz in short and single lutz in long
    2009 Worlds- 2 mistakes, a singles salchow, and the last spin discounted
    2011 Worlds- 2 mistakes, a near fall on triple lutz in short, and a singled flip in long

    Then in all the other grand prixs and smaller events I dont remember more than 2 mistakes. Other than maybe 2006 Skate Canada and 2009 Skate America, but dont remember those events too well.
  21. mia joy

    mia joy New Member

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    I don't think that baby jumping bean has a real shot at a medal unless several top ladies fail badly. She has the jumps and the spins, but artistically she's still far beyond world's best skaters. She's a kid and cannot possibly match presentation of 20-something year olds, such as Mao, Yuna, Carolina or Ashley. She doesn't have their skating skills either. I honestly think that, as much as she knows how to move beautifully, she's not fully capable of interpreting, I mean really interpreting the music yet. She doesn't have the flow of those other skaters either.
  22. Shaia

    Shaia New Member

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    If Julia can skate 2 clean programs at Sochi and Top 3 makes mistakes, I think she will strike the podium.

    But with Julia, it's the next cycle and 2018 Pyeongchang -- Julia v. Gracie could potentially be the next Yuna v. Mao -- with Zijun Li also possibly in the mix. It seems to me that the future of figure skating is bright.
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  23. orbitz

    orbitz Well-Known Member

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    ^ It all depends on if Mr. puberty decides to play nice or not with the girls, doesn't it.
  24. bek

    bek Guest

    I get the feeling that Julia's birthday was perfectly timed, not in terms of her parents. But more in terms of peaking for Sochi.
  25. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    She's grown taller but she still have the body of a little girl and at 15 she might shoot up another 2-3 inches and her body will continue to change so this might be as good as it gets for Julia.
  26. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    Lip#2 will be like Lip#1....Lip-Lip, Hooray! Timing of birth is everything. Glad that someone will be able to use the 'birth rule' to her advantage. Radionova not so lucky.
  27. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    Julia's Olympics is now (2014). Gracie will be long-gone by 2018. Zijun Li, skating in a socialist milieu, will definitely push-on to 2018.
  28. orientalplane

    orientalplane Mad for mangelwurzels

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    :confused: What do you mean?
  29. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    So far Lipnitskaia has been super consistent this season. If she continues skating like this, she'll probably end up winning.

    Yes, her skating is far from perfect but Asada cheats her jumps, Kim is a big unknown at this point and Kostner and Gold just aren't consistent enough.
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  30. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I find the Lipnitskaya love to be baffling, frankly, and I'm sorry if this was a cheer thread. She skates w/ less command than a lot of other top elite, senior ladies and that's fine. She's very young and very talented. I just don't think it's all there yet. The scores are jaw-dropping.

    I do think the Russian Fed. is hedging its bets on her due to Sotnikova's and Tuktamysheva's inconsistencies. I expect her to be a threat not because her skating is great but because the Olympics are in Sochi and they will politick the hell out of who they probably consider their #1 lady right now.
  31. elif

    elif Active Member

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    Team medal more possible.:watch:
  32. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    olympic - Yeah, she does get more PCS than she should given her weaknesses but at this point, she is consistently landing her jumps whilst none of the other Ladies are. So she might not need a lot of politicking. ;)
  33. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    This is all I care about, honestly, so if Julia is able to help Team Russia (& more importantly Evgeni Plushenko; knock on wood) win a Team Medal in the first ever Olympic Team Event, and most importantly first Winter Olympics ever to be held in Russia, I"m happy! :) :) She can become the first Russian lady ever to win an Olympic Gold Medal as well as the second youngest in history (behind Tara Lipinski, who's birthday is June 10th versus Julia's June 5th). :D

    I find it kinda funny in how much they have in common (similar last names & birthdates & body types). And Julia is born under a lucky star to be able to compete at the Olympics at age 15, just making the cutoff date, unlike Mao Asada. It really has to do with a great deal of talent but also an equal portion of luck. It's all in the stars, astrology. :)
  34. bek

    bek Guest

    Julia's Personal Best is now higher than Kostner's personal best...She may very well be closer to the podium than we think she is... Kostner and Asada both are better skaters, but they will need to land their stuff, and there is no guarantee they will.
  35. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I don't think she will win, but she could come 2nd or 3rd if Mao and Carolina don't skate that well. I have a feeling she'll end up more in the range of 4th-6th though. She may get a bit more nervous at an Olympics.
  36. bek

    bek Guest

    That's absolutely true too. Its the Olympics and she has no big international competition experience.
  37. arakwafan2006

    arakwafan2006 Active Member

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    I'm sure that she cannot beat Yu Na. Mao, given she's not doing clean programs with all the jumps it's possible. If Kim has a meltdown, this girl could be the champion.
  38. Ziggy

    Ziggy Well-Known Member

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    She's been competing at Russian senior Nationals since she was 12 and she's been competing internationally as a Junior since she was 13.
  39. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    She has a chance to medal but she'd need mistakes for others. With her 2 perfect programs, Julia was still 5 points under Mao's score from SA, and that was put up with Mao skating conservatively and making a number of mistakes. Kostner and Kim have even higher PCS than Asada and can get more GOE on their jumps, so most likely, if Lipnitskaya were to skate like she did at SC, I'd say she'd wind up 4th at the Olympics. But if she skates a blinder and one of the big 3 falters, then she could definitely medal. To win gold, all 3 would have to falter, and when I say falter I mean would have to make multiple sizeable errors if Mao's SA score is anything to judge upon. So that's really unlikely, though not entirely out of the realms of possibility, especially with the event being in Russia.
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  40. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    More like a Sarah Hughes than a Tara Lipinski. Lipinski was co-favorite for 1998 OGM. Hughes had technically ambitious programs but was really only considered in the mix for silver/bronze and, at best, a pretty dark horse for gold, which is why her victory was so distressing surprising.

    I think Lipnitskaia is kind of like Hughes -- technical goods to win gold if the three anointed ones fail. Also like Hughes, she would be looking to accomplish it on home soil.