Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by koatcue, Oct 6, 2011.
It's just... Oh my)) her score is HUGE - 63.71
YESSS! I knew it!! Julia is a special one.
I prefer her to both Adelina and Liza actually. Julia is the more complete skater with an ease and maturity around the ice that I can describe as 'a natural' at only age 13. Her potential is huge!!
They are all very different skaters too. Russia are a little spoilt for choice right now, the field is incredibly deep.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5RqMCinj88 (Round 1 JGP Baltic Cup 2011)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTkj4bY1ix4 (Round 2 JGP Trofeo W.Lombardi 2011)
Only thing is she's 13 and a lot can happen between now and Sochi. Like a 5 inch growth spurt and other things. I've seen too many dynamite 13 year old's who fizzled out by they time they were 15.
Wow, just wow, reminds me of Sasha Cohen, with all the jumps.
But I think there are other qualities beside her technical skills are superb and extremely rare at her age.
The expressions, the presentations, the interpretations, the use of the arms up to her fingertips, the smooth natural ease she made transitions between each elements along with the music notes, relentlessly and seamlessly are things you just can't teach. She got it all and at only age 13.
Even if if her flexibility and jumps were to suffer during the growth spurt, I think she got enough rare qualities to remain competitive. Her PCS is going to be incredible that one.
Seeing somehow Mirai were able to keep her crazy flexibility, I am hopeful for this one.
That cannot be stressed enough.
It's going to be insane competition at Russian Nationals in the coming years with Lipnitskaya, Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva all going head to head. Leonova and Makarova are going to be all but forgotten.
Last season Leonova showed the ability to really fight for her spot and was able to get second place in the free skate over good skates by Tuktamysheva and Lipnitskaya at Russian nationals. This season it may be harder but I would not count her out. Though I am just waiting for her to be Euros and worlds as the 4th place finisher at Russian nationals.
But all of these girls were younger. As I can see, they are getting better and better every year
I wish I could see Sotnikova's test skate. They say she has 3z/3l + 3s/3l..It seems she upped her jumps' difficulty a lot
The only thing that worries me about Lipnitskaya is her name. So far no Julia has been truly successful (champion in the seniors) on the ice. Call me crazy for posting this.
On the other hand her name sounds like the Russian variation of Lipinski which can't be all bad. Just ask Tara
and don't forget that as a Julia (Sebestyen) she could stay around for years!
remembering the other thread..how realistic are young skaters, what about us?
Past is not necessarily the best prediction for the future. Puberty Monster is around the corner.
Not sure if you can really compare two scores, from two different seasons....I like both girls a lot, but we will see what happens.
Well.... neither are predictions based solely on past experiences
She has wonderful skills but her program is so generic. I-spin, bad layback, Biellmann. Ho-hum. It's not her fault. It's the fault of the system.
Don't worry, Julia seems to have all the great qualities to beat the curse, if there is any.
os168, I agree with what you said earlier, I too think Julia has a special feel for skating.
As a lot of people have been saying for a couple of years now, Lipnikskaya is exceptional and I think she is just as good as Sotnikova and Tuktamysheva. I think all 3 of them are going to dominate Ladies figure skating for the next 3-7 years. I really cannot see Leonova and Makarova making the Russian team for the 2014 Olympics with Sotnikova, Tuktamysheva, and Lipnitskaya around, unless one of latter 3 undergoes a disastrous growth spurt or suffers an injury.
In last years junior grand prix, Sotnikova's best short program score was 61.32 at the Cup of Austria. The following day, she scored 117.65 in the free skate to give her a total score of 178.97. Despite the fact that juniors skate for a shorter period and have 1 less element compared to seniors (i.e. in the free program, there is 1 less element - junior girls do not have to do a spiral sequence. Furthermore, a junior free program only last 3 minutes 30 seconds, whereas a senior ladies free program last 4 minutes), this score was the leading score for either a junior or senior for practically half the season. If Lipnitskaya performs as well as she did in the short program in her free skate tomorrow, she could very well score in excess of 180.00. For a junior, that would be absolutely incredible! She scored 112.14 in her free skate at the Baltic Cup and she needs 116.29 to get to 180.00. Hence, just needs an improvement of just 4.15. She gained 3.34 today on her Baltic Cup short program. Hence, I think a 4.15 improvement in the free skate could well be in range.
Oher skating skills not withstanding, IMO I find her numerous side and back lift momentary spiral positions gratuitous, and self-indulgent. Holding one spiral for more than a second would be far more appreciated
well I woundn't say Julia's technical skill - especially jumping technique - is "superb" or great. I love her posture and overall skills but I'm not impressed by her jumps. Adelina could do better, Liza could do far better, if we're comparing these three Russian ladies.
ITA with qualities of Lipniskaya. She is the best talent since Yuna Kim, in a class above Sotnikova and Tukatmisheva just like Kim was against likes of Asada in my opinion.
One thing I disagree is about her uber flexibility. A good stretch is nice to see, but emphasizing it too much makes a program look like a circus routine and distracts attention from her actual skating. I would prefer to see her focus more on stuff like musical interpretation and intricate transitions.
I think Adelina is better than Julia. Adelina has bigger jumps, and I actually think her presentation is nicer than Julia's. Julias arm movements are jerky. The only thing Julia has over Adelina IMO is better spins and more uber flexibility.
Sotnikova and Tuktamisheva are excellent athletes, and I find Sotnikova to be in particular, an extremely disciplined competitor. But that's all they are, nothing more and nothing less at least for now. They get instructions from their choreographers, practice the same thing repeatedly, and put out the routine in competitions.
In Lipniskaya, I see a little more. I see a capable young performer who is paying details to nuances. I admit that these things are subjective, so I don't have problem with you having different opinions. One thing I'm pretty confident is that, jumping abilities of these girls won't improve that much from now on, but their artistic abilities will grow by leaps and bounds. If I had to choose one with the most potential, I will take Lipniskaya.
BTW, Tuktamisheva has better jumps than both Sotnikova and Lipniskaya, but as cliché says, there are other important things in skating aside from jumps.
I wasn't impressed with her before, because she just seemed like Robo-Sasha (all of the flexibility, none of the charm!), but her skating skills have improved a ton this season. Last season was just not pretty. She's still not up to Adelina's level, let alone some of the other senior ladies, but it's terrific that she's apparently dedicated some amount of time to improving them. It shows in her jump landings, now she's actually getting some flow out.
That is some funny comparison. I wouldn't say that! Lol... Kim and Asada are at least the same age and only few months apart. Had Mao been able to competed at the Olympics, Yuna would be there too! Actually given Yuna beat Mao by a massive 24.19 points at the world juniors championship 2006 happend around the same times as the Olympics, it would certainly makes her a far better contender for the hypothetical Gold people seems to have bestowed on Maos had they been both age eligible.
Julia is only 13, and 2 years younger than Adelina and Liza (massive years in skating). She would be just in time for Sochi I think.
If I was to bet, I would put my money on her right now.
For me it is about potential at this point. There are all sort of prodigies in this world. Those who are capable of executing great many complex skills at a young age beyond their years, and the even more exceptional ones; those made them these skills appear not as skills but a natural part of them. Julia belongs to the latter.
Yes the nature of performing these skills in public would appear self indulgent because that is what they are told to do, to showcase these incredible moves as much as possible rather than putting on a performance they have matured into. Actually the choreographer had given her so much to do in her program, at such relentless pace, does it really allow her time to think and express?
I find it totally interesting that her choreographer is Morozov. It felt her choreography and pace are almost an extension of his personality (including self indulgent new rich Russian men sort of excess. If you got a talent like that, of course you want to show off your latest toy as much as possible).
It felt like there are at least twice more contents and efforts when designing Julia's programs than what he put out there for his non Russian skaters like Miki and Florent, all followed the same templated format.
By the time Miki completed her super time-consuming spins, Julia would have gone up and down done completed about 3 or 4 things already. It seems utterly crazy and terribly exciting to watch.
If that is who Morozov is focusing on right now, I would not be surprised Julia will get her own pull within Russia especially given his popularity over there and her own talent strongly on the ascending. Let's see how well she does in her FS.
Tat has Adelina, Mishin has Liza... who will win?!!
Mao was pretty much burnt out at that competition. There were speculations that she didn't really want to be there. Can't really blame her after having great success on the senior circuit yet still made to go to juniors worlds due to her age.
I just watched this girl's SP from the latest event and was blown away. Her spins are amazing (great layback) and her flexibility is just outstanding. Even Sasha Cohen couldn't get her leg up that high.
She actually uses her flexibility to add to her transitions the same way that other skaters use their arms. Not many skaters can do that.
I think Russian ladies skating has really got a bright future, as long as they stay healthy and don't get injured.
Well yeah I wouldn't be happy to get my butt kicked either having just proven doing so well @ the seniors
Burnt out or not, results are results. She was burnt out then, she would have been burnt out at the Olympics also. At the same time had she not proven herself before the Olympics, she wouldn't even been mentioned here as a contender at all. It just to show there's no sure thing in figure skating, otherwise Michelle and Kurt would have been 2x Olympic Champions already.
How about Julia? So many things can go so wrong, at the time there are so many things are already so right about her. She need good direction and mentoring, otherwise she might very well get burnt out with the way Morozov seems to push her towards more range, rather than refinement especially her basics and need to find her own style like Liza seems to have matured and developed.
Julia has definitely made improvements since last season. I found her a bit annoying last season b/c 60% of her skating was pulling her leg up over her head...the flexibility features were impressive the first two times but by the time she did the same thing for the fourth time, it began to hit a nerve.
She's grown a bit since last year and her overall skating has improved as well. I still wouldn't rank her with Adelina or Liza T at this point. Her 3t-3t is nice, but it can't touch Liza's 3lz-3t or Adelina's 3lz-3lp...at least not yet. She's only 13 which means she won't be senior for at least another year or two, which is wonderful b/c that means she has a lot of room to grow. What she does have them beat on is spins. I hate her leg in her layback but I love her back position and that final vertical Biellmann thingy she does.
Artistically...eh, I'm not impressed by any of the Russian ladies when it comes to artistry or expression, though I do swoon over Adelina's Black Swan exhibition (awesome!). I think Julia (as well as Adelina and Liza T) would benefit from some better choreography. Her programs aren't horrible but I wouldn't call them good either...they're sufficient at this point. Her presentation is good for so young but she's still rough; just not as rough as some of the others. But again, at 13 years old, she has time to improve. Morosov as a choreographer is dullsville IMO and he's probably holding her back from developing as an artistic skater...hopefully she'll branch out at some point.
As with all of these girls, puberty is the true test. Julia definitely still has some growing to do, so we'll have to see if she survives that. We've seen a number of skaters' progress come to a screeching halt after puberty...so we'll have to see what Julia can do. For now though, she's the clear cut favorite to win Lombardi and the JGPF...
In terms of taking Adelina and Liza T on...Julia can be competitive, but I don't see her beating either of them. No one can touch Adelina's speed, height and power in her jumps, and no one can touch Liza T's technique and spark. I do think Julia has a really good shot of making the junior world team this year though...the three of them could easily sweep the podium.
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