Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by haribobo, Sep 17, 2011.
Who will medal?
Gold: Polina SHELEPEN RUS
Silver: Ira VANNUT BEL
Bronze: Polina KOROBEYNIKOVA RUS
The two Japanese and the two Americans as well as Hae Jin Kim are very inconsistent. It's going to be interesting, because they could all be very good, or have a disaster.
I feel like Yuki Nishino has been on the JGP forever. Looking back at her records, she already won bronze at the JGPF three years ago!
Gold: Polina Shelepen
Silver: Hae-Jin Kim
Bronze: Yukiko Fujisawa or Ira Vannut
Polina is a given. Hae-Jin showed great improvement. I'm still rooting for small Yukiko. ITA Nishino's been on jgp forever and was only consistent for one season... Ira looked quite polished at the end of the season last year, let's hope it carried over.
I'm rather disappointed at the Americans in this event...
USFSA, you are stupid...
I completely agree. They deserve to be here.
Vannut, Kim and Shelepen.
The fourth JGP have very strong records for Japanese ladies since 2004. Nishino's under-rotation seems to show little improvement. Fujisawa would be the better bet.
2004 Takeda gold
2005 Kitamura gold
2006 Takeda gold
2007 Nishino gold
2008 Fujisawa gold
2009 Nishino silver (Shelepen gold)
2010 Shoji gold
^ Wow, that's a pretty remarkable track record!
I think it will be broken by Shelepen this year, but we'll see.
Shelepen, Vannut, Korobeynikova
1. Shelepen, 2. Kim, 3. Korobeynikova
It was tough choosing between Korobeynikova and Vannut but I figured that Korobeynikova would win on components.
Shelepen, Vannut, Korobeinikova.
But Kim, Fujisawa, Nishino, Daniels, Cain could spoil. Not as deep of a field as the first 3 events, but a lot of these girls are inconsistent, so it could turn out to be an exciting event or a total flop.
Exactly why does Ashley Cain get another assignment after her performance in Latvia? Don't you have to have a good result in the first GP event to get a second assignment in the Junior GP? There were other US girls who deserved that spot in Brasov.
I can't see anybody beating Shelepen
Ya, not in this field. That being said, I can see skaters like Lipitniskaia, Miyahara, Cesario, Shoji, Hicks, Lam, and Li beating her, but luckily none of those skaters will be at this event.
I can see Shelepen beating Shelepen...
The Japanese ladies here are crazily inconsistent, but if they stand up on their jumps (and rotate, in Nishino's case) they will do well.
Judging from her first competition, Kim can easily medal as long as she delivers.
Vannut is very solid and can medal as well.
If all skate well, this is a very deep field. But having all these ladies skate well at the same time is pretty unlikely...
Shelepen, Vannut, Cain
Gold: Polina Shelepen
Silver: Hae-Jin Kim
Bronze: Polina Korobeynikova
I would hope Kim wouldn't melt down in her FS again, but who knows. Shelepen should win convincingly (theoretically), but who knows. Korobeynikova beats Vannut, the Americans and the Japanese for the bronze, IMO.
Ira Vannut is not anymore on the list of participants (since yesterday evening European time).
I wonder if Vannut is going to get a senior GP assignment instead? She's at (or near) the top of the list at this point.
Too bad USFS didn't send Vanessa to this event, with Vannut out, this field is pretty weak, and she could very likely nab a slot in the final with even just decent performances. Shelepen would really be her only main competitor, and she did beat her last season. Instead USFS is wasting this event with a weak field on Cain and Daniels who don't look to have any shot at the final at this point. And my guess is they will send Samantha to Milan anyways even though that field is insane, and Courtney will be the only one who makes the final. Stupid USFS...
There's no way they could predict Vannut popping off the entry list a day before the event. With her in this field, it was looking very strong IMO. Both Russians and both Japanese can be very good. Also Hae Jin Kim is strong and Popova landed many triples at Liberty. That's at least 6 strong skaters right there, so its not as if Vanessa or anyone else would be guaranteed a medal here even without Vannut.
I'm also afraid they're going to leave Cesario in Milan.
1. Polina Shelepen RUS
2. Hae-Jin Kim KOR
3. Polina Korobeinikova RUS
4. Yuki Nishino JPN
5. Yukiko Fujisawa JPN
6. Natalia Popova UKR
7. Ashley Cain USA
Well, you have a point. And the field in Austria is comparable so she should be fine there, hopefully. They really should consider getting Cesario out of Milan though and putting Courtney there instead, or better yet, send neither girl there and give those spots to Gracie and Leah (or Polina), who might have a shot at winning/medaling there judging from recent performances, but it would be there only assignment so if they did get killed in PCS and end up with not so great placements, it would be no big deal. I hope Cesario gets moved to Talinn, her only big threat there is Risa, and if they go 1 and 2 in whatever order, they both should have a good shot at the final.
Wow, this must be one of the weakest field for JGP ladies. They only two almost-medal locks are Shelepen and Vannut IMO. Can't believe how unevenly distributed each JGP is.
Vannut is no longer on the entry list
Yeah it really is unfortunate. Because this event and the last one in Talinn are pretty wide open fields, but in Milan, there are 4 really great skaters and it's likely at least 1 if not more will be left out of the JGPF due to having to compete at such a stacked event instead of a more reasonable one. And where there's only 6 spots in the final this season, I feel like it's an even bigger issue.
I just watched a YT vid of Shelepen at a Volvo Cup (?) 2011 where she did a program to Mendelssohn's Violin Concerto. It was loaded with jumps and 3/3s but there was zero connection to the music. ZERO. Even the customary arm waves to be 'artistic' weren't related to her music. I hope her PCS are in the 3's. That program is terrible. If she is skating to that this year, then I hope she gets hammered.
Fortunately (or unfortunately for the Americans), Li Zijun was moved to Austria. The unevenness of JGP fields is a little lessened.
My new predictions: Nishino, Kim and Shelepen.
My new prediction:
Shelepen, Nishino, Kim
Yeah, well funny thing is, her TES for that program was 13 points higher than anyone else's but her PCS were only 5th in that segment. They weren't in the 3s, but I think the judges were definitely trying to make a statement with the discrepancy btwn the two marks. Those 3-3s were bringing back some old Kostner vibes though, I think it's probably because they have similar coloring and body type.
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