Is there even the smallest chance of a Clean Yu na Kim being beaten in the 2014 Oly?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by Vash01, Sep 23, 2013.

Can a clean Yu na Kim be beaten in the 2014 Oly?

This poll will close on May 16, 2015 at 7:31 AM.
  1. Absolutely not

    59 vote(s)
    43.1%
  2. Yes, but highly unlikely

    60 vote(s)
    43.8%
  3. Yes, she can be beaten

    18 vote(s)
    13.1%
  1. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Vera

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    This thread was inspired by the Chan thread :lol:

    If Yu na Kim skates clean, can she still be beaten in Sochi? If yes, by who?

    Curious minds want to know. :)
     
  2. walei

    walei Well-Known Member

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    I'd like to think a clean Mao with 3A in both LP and SP can get her enough points to beat Kim.
     
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  3. TripleWallie

    TripleWallie New Member

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    A squeak clean (no UR) 8-triple free program by Mao will do it. But again, she has to be squeaky clean.
     
  4. HVS

    HVS Active Member

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    I vote for "Yes, but highly unlikely"

    Only Mao beat a clean Yuna!!! BUT Mao herself must be absolutely-freaking-clean all short and free program, land all her planed triples, not even single -GOE

    Yes, and I will win lottery before that happen :lol:
     
  5. igniculus

    igniculus Well-Known Member

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    I have my faith in Mao. :) Voted for yes.
     
  6. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    What about Carolina? She has been upping the content each season. If she goes clean (and I know that's highly unlikely) she could challenge the clean Kim. I don't think a clean Carolina is any less likely than a clean Mao, they both tend to make some mistakes. But I think the judges could possibly give the clean Carolina higher PCS than Kim, which they won't do for Mao.
     
  7. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    No. A clean Kim come Sochi will score 150 or higher in the long and 75 or higher in the short for a 225 point total. Even clean Mao or Carolina wont best that. Carolina's chance to beat a clean Kim was at Worlds as reigning World Champion. Now that Kim is reigning Olympic and World Champion again Kostner definitely wont beat a clean Kim on PCS, unless she has absolutely amazing programs.
     
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    That could be interesting if it ever happened, but there is no chance of that happening anyway (Mao ever doing her current 70 base value long program squeeky clean) so it would still fit into the no chance category IMHO.
     
  9. itoaxel

    itoaxel Member

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    No. Clean Kim cant be beaten. Her PB international score is like 20 points higher than others. I dont know what clean Mao or clean Kostner do, but the best they have been able to produce in 7 or 8 years is about 20 points lower than Kim's top couple times, and they arent going to do something much better than they have in decade long senior careers now.
     
  10. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    As with the Patrick Chan thread, the answer is "no". Miss Kim will become a two-time Olympic Gold Medalist, adding her names to the greats ~ Sonja Henie (3-time Olympic Gold Medalist), Katarina Witt (2-time Olympic Gold Medalist). :hat1: History will be made!!! :encore:
     
  11. pat decaro

    pat decaro Member

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    No. Her advantage in quality is significant enough, so I don't think it would matter whether someone else could manage to match or better her scores in isolated elements.

    I feel the same with Patrick Chan. I think both Chan and Kim are locks for gold if they go clean. The differences between the two would be: Kim is more likely to be clean than Chan is; however, IMO in case of some mistakes the judges would be more hesitant in marking Chan down than they would with Kim (this has been true in the past, for whatever reason).
     
  12. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    Of course. Never say never...

    If by some chance the universe aligned and Carolina skated lights out after Yu-Na skated (that's key), I think she could match or beat Yu-Na. She's the only other skater who can close the gap in GOE and PCS and being that Carolina has never done it before and that she would manage to do it on the biggest stage (Olympics), I do think the judges might be inclined to give Carolina the nod.

    Reality is Carolina is not known for skating cleanly...then again Yu-Na was not/is not known for skating 100% cleanly either but has managed to do it twice. Who's to say it might not happen for Carolina? Or Mao? You never know...
     
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    One good question is who would have a better chance to beat a clean Kim, a clean Mao or clean Kostner. Not who is more likely to skate cleanly between Mao and Kostner which is a seperate topic, but in the unlikely hypothetical one of them did manage to, which would have the better chance to beat a clean Kim.

    I would say Mao since her base value is about 10 points higher. This despite that I am sure a clean Mao would get the lowest PCS and GOE of all 3 of these if they went clean, but her base value would still give her more chance than Kostner would have. I think Kostner is liked by the judges more than Mao is right now, and in many ways is just a better skater than Mao is right now, but her base value isnt even higher than Kim's, and I dont think anyone can beat a clean Kim without having a higher base value. I am not even saying I think a clean Mao would beat a clean Kim, just that I think her chances to do would be higher than a clean Kostner to beat a clean Kim for the reasons stated.

    Ultimately I dont expect either Mao or Kostner to skate cleanly though and Kim will win in a blowout, even if she isnt perfect herself. I do think Mao and Kostner will hold it together to the extent of a "pretty good" performance, which would be enough to almost shut the door on the rest, unless Wagner has the skate of her life. I have a feeling Wagner is the only one who might break up the expected podium, not one of the young guns.
     
  14. McIce

    McIce New Member

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    Mao's based value in LP is 12 points higher than Kim. When we talk about clean, we are talking about realistically clean other than 3f-3lp< and 3lz e. Even if these two elements will receive minus GOE, all the others should at least offset all the negative. 5 points of GOE are definitely doable (that includes 1 GOE per spin, 2 points of GOE of step squence, and other jump elements).

    Say Kim can have 11 points of GOE as demonstrated by 2013 Worlds. Their GOE difference then will be 6 points. Considering Mao's 12 points base value advantage, she will have 6 points advantage in TES over Kim.

    So on the PCS side, as long as Mao's is not 6 points lower than Kim. She can win. In 2013 Worlds, Mao's PCS was 5 points lower than Kim's when she had two mistakes and one edge call. When she's relatively clean, she will get some boost on that mark.

    In summary, tt's entirely possible, but it will be a tall order.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2013
  15. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I agree but she's going to have to include the 3A in both the SP and LP.
     
  16. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    i voted no. Mao would need to be on steroids. Carolina... nope. Yu Na will be treated like a goddess and, although I am not a big fan, I can't argue with that steely perfection and that amazing comeback.
     
  17. Macassar88

    Macassar88 Well-Known Member

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    I think Mao could do it if she goes all out and lands a rotated triple triple in both programs as well as three triple axels
     
  18. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    Carolina's jump content is hardly static. She really dumbed down the content a few seasons back to regain her confidence, but then has upped the content significantly the last 2 seasons. If she ups it again once again, she may not be far in base value from Kim (but I agree Kim is far less likely to make mistakes). When Carolina was much younger, she also landed content similar to Kim. So it's hard to say what 'clean Carolina' would look like next season.
     
  19. Lnt175

    Lnt175 Member

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    Very unlikely, but it would take a historic performance from Kostner and/or Asada to do it.
     
  20. MR-FAN

    MR-FAN Kostner Softie

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    Honestly, yes. A clean Yu-Na could actually win bronze if Mao and Kostner go clean short and long, AND with quality programs from both.

    And also if Mao and Kostner are relatively strong throughout the season. If Yu-Na trounces them throughout the GP season performance and score wise, the writing will be on the wall.

    If I'm betting my future house on it though, it's Yu-Na all the way (but I'll always believe in miracles :shuffle: )
     
  21. pat decaro

    pat decaro Member

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    I voted no. However, if I'm proven wrong, I agree with the above that it would be with Asada than with Kostner. But, for Asada to have any chance she would need rotated 3-3s and 3a's, given that she can't match Kim's GOE or PCS. That said, I can't even remember when was the last time Asada had a rotated 3-3, let alone a rotated 3-3 AND a rotated 3a. It would be a daunting task for her.

    For Kostner, I don't think she would have advantage over a clean Kim in BV, GOE or PCS. I agree with what Eteri Tutberidze said about Kostner (Eteri-Tutberidze-interview), about the tade-off between her speed/consistency and some PCS/GOE bullets that she made some compromises with. The only reason she had a higher PCS in SP during the last worlds was that she was the reigning champ going in and Kim skated way before the final groups and was undermarked despite the clean skate vis-a-vis Kostner.
     
  22. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    4 triple SP and 8 triple FS by Mao could do it (no URs and 3a in both programs)
    Kostner with an upgraded combo (3f-3t) in the SP and a 7 triple FS could do it

    But how likely are such things to happen? Very, very unlikely. No one else can even come close to beating a clean Yu-Na.
     
  23. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The thing with Kostner is I could see her coming very close to Kim in all of BV, GOE or PCS if both went clean. I just dont think she could actually get ahead in any of them. Being equal or close to equal in everything still wont let you beat someone. It is pretty much impossible to beat Kim in GOE and PCS if she has a performance like Worlds and gets littered with +3s and some 10s in PC categories. So that leaves base value and their combined base values last year had Kim slightly ahead. Could Kostner get ahead in combined base value with a triple flip-triple toe in the short, given that she tries 7 triples in the LP vs 6 for Kim? Maybe then she would have a small chance. She will have to do even more this year to potentially beat Kim than she would have last year. She isnt the reigning World Champion anymore, which removed her only intangible edge over Kim.

    Asada cant compete on equal footing with either Kim or Kostner in GOE and PCS at this point, but she still gets good ones, better than pretty much everyone else. That with a much harder program might push her over Kim if both were clean. Or maybe not.
     
  24. riveredge

    riveredge Active Member

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    Can a clean Yu na Kim be beaten in the 2014 Oly?

    yes.. and i'm a yuna bot. reason? ice is slippery and a clean mao and kostner will do, especially it will be held in a European country.
     
  25. kwanatic

    kwanatic Well-Known Member

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    IMO a clean Carolina would be such an epic achievement (being that it's never happened before) and if she managed to do it at the Olympics, I think that could be a game changer. If Carolina's very first time doing it was her absolute last performance of her competitive career, I think the judges would really reward her.

    Carolina has a way of grabbing a crowd and if she skated perfectly, I think the judges would get a case of the happy piddles (just like they did with Yu-Na last season) and start dropping +3s and 10s everywhere. It'd be a narrow margin of victory but I think she could do it. Her PCS would go through the roof. I feel Carolina is superior in PCS at this point in their careers. We've seen what kind of PCS a clean Yu-Na gets but we've never seen what kind of PCS a clean Carolina would get; my guess is they'd be greater than or at least equal to Yu-Na. In terms of GOE, Carolina's jumps are almost what-and-what with Yu-Na's when she's on so I don't feel there would be a huge discrepancy there either. A 7-triple program to Yu-Na's 6-triples could help to make up whatever difference was left. It would be very close...

    Carolina's never had that clean performance...who's to say it won't happen at the Olympics? Very unlikely but definitely not impossible. Then again there's no guarantee Yu-Na will skate well at the Olympics either. She's never had a truly bad competition but who's to say it won't happen in Sochi? Again, very unlikely but definitely not impossible. We'll never know what will happen until it happens.

    Of course the highest odds bet is Yu-Na for gold and either Carolina or Mao for silver...but stranger things have happened at the Olympics...
     
  26. Yunabot

    Yunabot New Member

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    History will be made in Sochi when for the first time ever three ladies break 200 in what will be regarded as the greatest Olympics Ladies Figure Skating competition ever. But when all is said and done the same three ladies from this past worlds will find themselves once again atop the podium except for one thing, the order will be different as one of them slips in order. I don't want to predict the order but I have a strong feeling that when it is all said and done it wont be about who didn't "live up" to the event, it will be about who had the best strategy coming in to the games.
     
  27. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    Kim, Asada and Rochette broke 200 in Vancouver
     
  28. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    Well, from your name it is pretty clear who you think will win so you have just predicted the order. I'm guessing you think Mao wil execute her high base value strategy well enough to win silver over Carolina. No need to be so mysterious about it. It's only a skating board. Welcome to the forum, btw!
     
  29. ciocio

    ciocio Active Member

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    I voted for no. Mao and Carolina should have clean programs with quads to beat Kim. She already has an advantage in PCS and GOE that cannot be surpasses by competitors, unless they skate a program out of this world, both technically as artistically.
     
  30. Yunabot

    Yunabot New Member

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    Actually, what I am saying is that only two of these women can drop and/or two of these women can rise. What that translates to is either Yu-Na or Carolina are going to lose their spot. I don't want to name names because, you are right, I do have a favourite and I don't want to tempt the skating gods but... I also have a feeling. Also, I didn't realize Joanie broke 200. Good for her! Anyway my point was that in this competition no one will back into gold and the one who wins it will have truly earned it because the point difference will not be as it was in Vancouver because all three ladies will have skated brilliantly and the difference will be determined by who had the best strategy; the best base value, included, excluded jumps, etc.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2013