Is Miki a threat to either Akiko or Kanako for an Olympic spot?

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, Sep 28, 2013.

  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Just curious as to people's opinions, since she is a former World Champion, has laid out her program and is actively working towards her goals this season.

    I'm confident she won't be a threat to Mao but do you think she is capable of taking a spot away from either Akiko or Kanako?
  2. NadineWhite

    NadineWhite Well-Known Member

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    "yes", but imho she totally needs to rework her "Firebird" FS and feel it, skate from the heart, the soul, touch the audience (ala Yukari Nakano's signature "firebird" program).
  3. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    No. Unless one of them totally bombs the whole season and then Nationals on top of that.
  4. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Not based on Nebelhorn, but we'll have to see how she progresses towards nationals. Her leg wrap is looking bad (which causes UR's too) and she's not LP fit yet.

    Though praying for Akiko to have a great season still :)
  5. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I think she could be.
  6. pinky166

    pinky166 Well-Known Member

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    Kanako I think is safe. Suzuki is not immune to bombing though and has done so recently. Miki will need to step it up a lot from Nebelhorn, but we can see she can do all the jumps still, so it's more a matter of working on the spins and then training that FS with all the triples and adding more speed. I don't think it's that likely we'll see Miki in Sochi, but I definitely think it's possible. Also, once she starts skating better her PCS will definitely go up, being a 2-time world champ and all, so it all comes down to execution, and Miki has history and consistency on her side whereas Akiko doesn't so much.
  7. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    MIki, after a long absence, still has her jumps. Can she develop her stamina by January (or whenever they name the Japanese Oly team)? She is a two time world champion and if she skates well, she could be a threat to either Kanako or Akiko, depending how these two do during the GP series and the Japanese nationals.
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely no way Kanako does not make the team IMHO (and Mao goes without saying). I think the battle is really for the 3rd spot. I could see Murakami end up being only the 3rd Japanese in terms of final finish at the Games mind you, but I still cant see her not making it.

    I would be quite surprised at this point if Ando made it. However if Ando does get that spot it will be Suzuki who is bumped. There is also a chance one of the younger skaters will get that 3rd spot, again at Suzuki's expense. Right now I would pick the same team as the last 2 Worlds but Suzuki is the most vurnerable.
  9. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    At this moment, no. In three months, if she keeps getting stronger at this rate, very possibly. But it sounds like the Japanese Fed has stacked the odds against her. A podium finish at Japanese nats seems very possible, but a win? Against "Japan's Hope," Mao Asada?

    I hate to think of Miki bumping Akiko and I love Kanako too, but Miki's comeback looks to be heroic, even historic. The Japanese selection will be at least as tense for me as the American one.
  10. DobrinFan

    DobrinFan Active Member

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    And that's my reason for saying no and if she did win it would be Akiko who gets the bump.
  11. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    Yes, not because of her current condition is competitive, but because her current conditions indicates she has an exceptional level of natural ability. With some general conditioning, she will be able to improve her TES, GOEs, and PCS simultaneously. I think a second Lutz and Loop are forthcoming, with decisions about combinations soon after.

    The big question is only her 3F. Will she use it or will she construct a program without it?
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2013
  12. Frau Muller

    Frau Muller President of Dick Button Appreciation Club

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    I think not. Miki was lovely at Nebelhorn but Japan has at least 3 ladies who are stronger.
  13. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I had forgotten the part about the JSF saying she needs to win Nationals to make the team (something I think they will stand by too as she wont have any international success recent to go by). Had it not been for that I would have given her 20-25% but if she really needs to win Nationals which it seems she does as they already proclaimed that and she has no chance to impress in the grand prixs to give a different perspective, it is more like 1-3%. Virtually no way she wins Nationals.
  14. DimaToe

    DimaToe Well-Known Member

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    At this point I'd say Miyahara could play the biggest spoiler and snatch up a Sochi spot. I could see Miki taking a medal at Japanese Nats.(Bronze) if a couple of ladies have an off night, but I don't think that'd be enough, especially if she doesn't get the chance to compete on the GP series.

    If you look back. What earned Miki her last two Olympic trips were her previous results, not what she actually did at Nationals. Because Nebelhorn was her first outing in 2.5 years she doesn't have that luxury this time around, she'd really have to get out there and CONVINCINGLY win a couple of Senior B's (since there is no GP for her) So even though there might be a chance for her. I don't see her as a big threat for Sochi.
  15. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    Kanako isn't exactly safe either. She has had many poor LPs in the past and only recently (this past season) was able to start skating more decent LPs. We haven't seen Kanako yet this season (does anyone know if she's skated recently?), so we don't know where she's at and how her consistency is doing.
  16. smarts1

    smarts1 Well-Known Member

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    I think even if Miyahara gets on the podium at Nationals, JSF won't send her. Not enough rep power (i.e. the judges don't appreciate her amazing transitions) and not enough experience. Plus Miyahara tends to be hot or cold in competitions.
  17. pat decaro

    pat decaro New Member

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    I would say no.

    I agree with others that Asada and Murakami are locked. Three months would be enough for Ando for building up stamina. But I don't see her skating, which was not great in the first place, improve a lot in that span, making it improbable for her regaining the PCS she was receiving before. She may improve a bit with her presentation as she builds stamina and mileage on her programs, but I think it wouldn't be enough.

    IMO, the National podium probability, also competitive potential at the Olympics, would be: Murakami > Suzuki > Ando. I think Murakami earned a lot of reputation from the judges at the last worlds.
  18. Marco

    Marco Missing Ziggy

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    Is JPN using just Nationals or the whole season to decide the Sochi team?
  19. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    I forgot about that too. I change my answer to no, since I doubt she's going to beat Mao at Nationals.
  20. lahaa968

    lahaa968 Active Member

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    Based on the past season, Akiko and Kanako both have a consistent 3-3 in the SP, and 7-triple FP's.

    From what Miki showed at Nebelhorn, it was good, but it would take a major falling out on Akiko or Kanako to let her on the team based on what we've seen so far. She only had the 3Lz-2Lo and 3Lo in the SP, and in the free only 6 triples planned, and only 1 lutz.

    :blah:
  21. lala

    lala Well-Known Member

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    At this moment, no. But she has 3 months to Japanese Nats...
  22. ltnskater

    ltnskater New Member

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    I agree with most others here that say at the moment no, but in the next few months, it certainly is a possibility! We have to remember she is already in this kind of shape only 6 months post-pregnancy? As for winning Japan Nationals, I wouldn't be so quick to say Mao is unbeatable, certainly she is the favourite but if she makes multiple mistakes, there is still that chance Miki could claim the top spot if her condition improves! Unlikely as there are still many other strong contenders, but who knows? Ice is slippery...

    Btw, does anyone know if Ando is scheduled to compete anytime between now and Japanese Nationals? Does she have to do sectionals, etc.? And any international competitions too?
  23. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Ando might / probably will get an international B. The JSF would be silly not to get her out there and prove where she is in preparation to select a team
  24. kuzytalent

    kuzytalent Member

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    The fact the JSF according to some of you, and a report on FSUN from a Japanese poster several months ago indicates Miki would have to win Japanese Nationals to make the Games, which on the surface seems absurd for a former 2 time World Champion, shows me one thing. The JSF are not on board with her comeback and she is not a favorite of theirs anymore at this point. That makes it even more next to impossible she will be making it to the Games. They dont really want her on team, then she would have to force their hand with spectacular skating, far better than her skating to even win the 2011 Worlds which would barely be top 5 or 6 today (although that is still about all Murakami and Suzuki are capable of too but they seem more in favor now).
  25. cbd1235

    cbd1235 Active Member

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    Does Miki have a grand-prix assignment or another International assignment? For the life of me I just can't remember. Also did she make the tech scores at Nebelhorn? I would think so but I don't remember the scores needed to compete at Olympics/Worlds
  26. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty sure she has no GP assignment now, but with Yu Na's injury and other possible dropouts, I would be surprised if some fed didn't invite her.

    ETA: My bad. I didnt realize both Yu Na's replacements had already been picked. Wow. Courtney Hicks and Amelie Lacoste over Miki? I guess she really is being screwed over by her own fed.

    If I were Kanako or Akiko I'd be concerned and if I were the Japanese fed I'd be hedging my bets. Miki hasn't proved she is top-five Olympic material yet, which I guess is what the Japanese fed is aiming for from both its ladies, but she HAS proved she's got astounding determination, the ability to stand up two solid programs, and at least in her recent show programs, the ability to touch the heart in a new way. I think a lot of people want to see her now too because it's such a remarkable human-interest story. And she has three more months to improve.
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2013
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  27. DobrinFan

    DobrinFan Active Member

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    How exactly do you think replacements on the GP are picked? It has nothing to do with her federation, there's an alternate list they must pick from for Pete's sakes and she's not even on it (or anywhere near it for that matter), so no she is not being screwed over by her fed.
  28. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the correction - I thought feds at least played a role in submitting or approving names.

    But Miki is still being screwed over by her fed with the impossible bar they set her for making it to Sochi. IMHO.
  29. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    I'm not sure I buy Sakoto Miyahara as much of a threat to Suzuki/Murakami at this point either. Miyahara's jumps are so small they tend to get called UR'ed a lot (at World Juniors, she attempted 10 triples over two programs. Only one was considered fully rotated). Murakami gets dinged too, but not even remotely as badly. I'm sure we'll have seen some improvement, but not enough imo.
  30. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    IMO if Miki wins even a silver at the Japanese nationals, her fed would be stupid to not send her to the Olympics. If she gets in shape, she would be in a much better position than Kanako (may be even Suzuki, who usually does not get high marks from the judges) to medal there. They need a strong backup to Mao, just in case she cannot deliver.

    I don't see Miyahara as a factor here. Murakami- may be, depending on how she skates during the season.

    Is Miki going to compete without a coach? That will not help her. She needs someone politicking for her, especially at the Japanese nationals.
  31. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    It seems unduly harsh of the Japanese Fed to stipulate that Miki has to win Gold at Nationals for a spot on Olympic team. Then again, re Yukari, it seemed quite unfair that Miki was chosen for that Olympic team when Yukari was beating her all season long. I don't want the see Miki get an easy ride at someone else's expense, nor do I want her to be given unfair and unrealistic requirements. Will they ever evaluate her fairly?

    To answer the OP's question, NO, she most likely won't be on that Olympic team if she has to win Nationals to qualify. To me, it's fathomable that she could beat Mao since Mao has had her bad days before, but highly unlikely that she'd beat Suzuki and Murakami as well all in one competition.
  32. bardtoob

    bardtoob Well-Known Member

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    The Japanese Federation has used a system based on several performances over time for the non-winning berths since at least 2006. Since Miki has a minimal sample of performances, at some level, it is fair that she has to earn the one guaranteed spot by winning. However, it would be ridiculous if she did not get named to the team if Miki and Mao both performed World Medal Level performances and Mao won by subjective criteria, that is they had comparable TES Base so GOEs and PCS were the determining factor.
  33. FunnyBut

    FunnyBut Well-Known Member

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    Um, she had a baby six months ago. I don't think anyone thinks she can beat Akiko or Kanako in her present state. But many folks are very impressed with how quickly she has progressed since childbirth and are projecting her to be much better by the time Nationals rolls around.
  34. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    If anyone gets bumped for Miki, I hope it's Akiko. I've secretly harbored an irrational grudge against her for swooping in and taking Yukari Nakano's presumed Olympic spot from her in 2010 and doing it by only .17 points. :lol:
  35. Spun Silver

    Spun Silver Well-Known Member

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    Meanie. :lol: How could anyone harbor a grudge against the charming, gracious, courageous Akiko?
  36. KimGOAT

    KimGOAT Active Member

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    Poor Nakano. I really wish she had gone to Vancouver instead of Suzuki. Suzuki wasnt competitive there as we saw. She couldnt even beat Flatt who had 2 downgrades, despite skating her best in both programs.
  37. mikeko

    mikeko New Member

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    Yes. We all have seen how much JSF hates Suzuki. You just need to remember NHK from last year. That's the same organization that sent Ando to Turin, instead of Nakano.



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  38. VIETgrlTerifa

    VIETgrlTerifa Well-Known Member

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    Hey, I'm happy they sent Suzuki. Her LP performance was probably one of the highlights of the entire figure skating portion of the games. Who cares about results when we saw such an inspired performance. Shame they couldn't send both Nakano and Suzuki and left Ando home. Don't forget that Suzuki had a wonderful GP Series going into the games winning Cup of China and a bronze at the Grand Prix Final with a score of 174.00. It's not whether Suzuki could have been more competitive, but if Nakano could have been more competitive. We'll never know for sure and she may have surpassed Suzuki's placements (with her beautiful spins), but there wasn't anything to indicate she would have based on the GP series. What really hurt Nakano was losing to Suzuki at Japanese Nationals.

    Maybe Suzuki's Olympic experience was what she needed to now being a spoiler for a medal now (spoiler not favorite). She won the bronze medal at 2012 Worlds, and although she bombed Worlds in 2013, the rest of her season was great and she capped it off by having the highest Ladies score at WTT after Worlds.
  39. fenway2

    fenway2 Well-Known Member

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    Of course Akiko had a great GP in 2010. That's why she got the nod after finishing ahead of Nakano by a mere .17 points. Had she not done well on the GP, she probably would have remained home. I just felt horrible for Nakano who went to three worlds in a row, did the whole GP for four years and missed the Olympics - again. While Akiko didn't have that resume. If Akiko loses to someone who has a late surge in 2013-14, it'll be kinda like karma, and I don't mean that in a mean way. All that said, I'm actually cheering for Akiko to make the team this quad. Four years ago though, my heart broke for Nakano and I resented Akiko. :lol:
  40. mikeko

    mikeko New Member

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    JSF tried really hard to send Nakano to Vancouver, though, not because they liked her but because they were heaviliy criticized for sacrificing her to send Ando to Turin. When Mr. Nagakubo, Suzuki's coach saw the judge panel at 2009 Nationals, he thought she was going to lose. Suzuki should not have won by 0.17, but by at least five points.
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2013