In which skating disciplines can the US get 3 spots for 2013

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, Jan 30, 2012.

  1. Domshabfan

    Domshabfan Well-Known Member

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    Ice dance: almost 100%
    Ladies: 50% chance, Alissa is 5th on the SB list among the senior bound athletes and Wagner is 8th..

    Men's: 30 % Abbott is 6th and Rippon is 12ish major meltdown required
    Pairs: 1 % chance, 8th D/C, 13ish M/rockne... top teams are very strong and it is all but impossible for US teams to break into top 6
     
    Vash01 and (deleted member) like this.
  2. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    Ice Dance - duh !

    Men - very likely, there are still a lot of talent waiting to have their moment
    and Abbott maybe peaking again.

    Ladies - this one is a headcase scenario, like the current ladies figure skating in general, unpredictable, but I say. YES. Ashley and Alissa will bring it and both will finish above Top 10.

    Pairs - meh. US Pairs is very weak weaker than Canada even.
    maybe 2018 ?
     
  3. bek

    bek Guest

    I thought Canada has always been stronger than the US in pairs. They've had a couple of world champions, the Olympic Gold tie etc...Nobody has Russia's record (sorry Canadians but even you have to admit that); but Canada has historically been way more successful than us.
     
  4. query5

    query5 New Member

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    i think defintely dance,
    ladies has a good shot for 3 next year,

    men has to work for it.

    pairs only if they are lucky and both skate good short/longs
     
  5. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    Now that Jerrmy pulled out of 4CCs with a hip injury, I am going to downgrade the likelihood of US men getting three spots from 50-60 percent to about 30-40 percent :fragile:
     
  6. Lacey

    Lacey Well-Known Member

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    I'm confused, so you think Jeremy might still be injured by Worlds but try to skate and will not skate well? I sort of got the feeling that he is "resting" his hip...

    But I guess it's 100% opinion here that US Pairs are just not good enough. Sad.
     
  7. Vash01

    Vash01 Fan of Julia, Elena, Anna, Liza, and Sasha

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    Me too, although I did not assign any probability to my predictions.

    Ladies actually may have a better chance of finishing top 12 (total) because the ladies field is relatively weak. If Alissa and Ashley have respectable skates (5th & 6th or 7th place finishes), it's all that is needed. Other than Kostner, I don't see a sure podium bet. Asada and Suzuki are both good enough, but no guarantee if Asada's jumps don't work, and Suzuki will need two strong performances. After that, we have a lot of second tier skaters- Leonova, Makarova, Elene G., Korpii, Helgessons (2), Murakami. Both Ashley and Alissa are capable of beating all the second tier skaters.

    The mens field is strong and I was putting all my eggs in the Jeremy basket. Rippon may have found himself, but I don't see him as a medal contender (Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu, Fernandez, Kozuka, nd a healthy Abbott are likely to finish ahead of him; they all have the quad).He could be 5th or 6th. If Jeremy was healthy, it would be easy to get to 12, but with his hip injury things become muddled. What if he cannot go to worlds at all, then Ross Miner would go. I am looking at 8-10 finish for Ross, and that does not bode well.
     
  8. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^Don't doom and gloom the US men and Jeremy yet. It sounds minor and he's withdrawing from 4CC's to be safe
     
  9. Roxanne

    Roxanne New Member

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    Why does everyone think that the men are more likely to get 3 spots back than the ladies?
    Abbott could be top 4 but there is a huge list of people who could beat Rippon: Chan, the 3 Japanese boys, Fernandez, Brezina, Amodio, Song, Verner and maybe Joubert.

    For ladies, we probably need Alissa to medal or get 4th which is possible because she's always overscored.
     
  10. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    it's a total crapfest with all 4 of them, but Ashley has the least natural talent, and worst resume. We have to wait and see. :shuffle:
     
  11. mineko

    mineko New Member

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    1. Dance - a given as most of you mentioned. Who would have thought that dance would be the US' strongest discipline?

    2. Pairs - Forget it! Not gonna happen. Moving on.

    3. & 4. - Mens and Ladies I honestly don't know. But I have some thoughts to add to this discussion. Among four US singles' representatives, three of them, Abbott, Rippon, and Ciszny have been considered headcases and/or inconsistent. They have also shown marked improvement in terms of consistency/mental toughness.

    Improvement occurred after they moved to Sato/Dunjgen coaching teams. Since all three practice mates go to worlds together, do you think the intangible factors such as having familiar faces and mutual support enable them to perform better? - Those are my biggest question here. :)
     
  12. blue_idealist

    blue_idealist Well-Known Member

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    Dance - for sure, unless either the Shibutanis or Davis and White have to withdraw for some reason (I hope not). But if the Shibs didn't skate and D&W got 1st or 2nd, the US could still get three spots even if Hubbell and Donahue were 11th or 12th. They probably won't finish quite that high, but wow.

    Men - It's a tough call. I could see them finishing 6-7 though, or 5-8 or something like that. I could also see Abbott getting the bronze medal though, which would mean Rippon would only have to be 10th.. he can do that.

    Ladies - Kind of the exact same thing as the men.. Alissa could be on the podium (although I really don't think she will be), Ashley can probably manage a top 10, even if Alissa's not on the podium they could do a 6-7 or 5-8 thing.

    Pairs - Nope, I think both teams will be in the lower half of the top 10 at best. I can see Marley and Brubaker finishing OUT of the top 10.
     
  13. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Based on 4CC's, any new feelings on US chances in Men's and Ladies?
     
  14. Jenna

    Jenna Well-Known Member

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    Strong possibility in ladies. If they don't bomb.

    Men..I'd say 50/50, and it depends on how well Adam Rippon skates. I think Abbott will skate well.
     
  15. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Ladies- nope, not really. Sorry...

    I will say this, however- the question of whether the international judges would take Wagner seriously/give her fair scores has been answered, and it is a resounding YES. They put her above a strong Asada.

    But then the questions become- Has Wagner peaked? Undoubtedly expectations of her will go up- can she handle them? And after what happened last year with Flatt- can she stay healthy/fit enough?

    And don't forget Czisny too. She hasn't been doing well this season but barring a meltdown she *should* be able to stay in the top 10. Of course, if BOTH ladies can skate near or at their best, 3 spots should be all but a given- but keeping history in mind, how likely is that?
     
  16. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely not. She had one mistake in the SP at 4CCs (2footing the 3/3 combo), and in the FS, she can add the 3T after the 2A. There's definitely room for improvement for her in Nice.
     
  17. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    I think that is critical for a great performance from Ashley at Worlds: Almost at her best at the previous comp, but with room to improve

    You seem pessimistic, but do you think Ashley will cave under the new pressure being built around her, and Alissa will also bomb at the same comp? On the contrary, after 4CC's, I think Ashley will build (per my post above) and Alissa will get motivated after watching 4CC's in the stands. Maybe if Alissa sees that a strong Mao can be beaten by her teammate, it will breathe new life into her skating (she has said in past interviews she is competitive) and she may not feel the pressure of being the standard bearer anymore - She and Ashley can share that between the two of them.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2012
  18. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Even MORE critical IMHO is a solid performance from Czisny. Wagner has at least shown SOME consistency unlike the latter.
     
  19. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    Actually Wagner's 2footing was not penalized at all (+0.2GOE). I doubt the worlds judges could be that generous. There are 11 Euro judges and 2 Asian (CHN JPN) at the judge panel for ladies. Most of them will take Kostner's side. Wagner is now considered to be a "threat" for them. It's not so difficult to throw her out of the final flight with that same SP (if they want).
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2012
  20. victoriaheidi

    victoriaheidi New Member

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    I have confidence that the lack of a penalty doesn't mean that she isn't going to keep working on the two-footing problem.
     
  21. NMURA

    NMURA Member

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    Usually a 2footing means the lack of rotational ability. I don't think Wagner can land a clean 3-3. If she tries to avoid 2footing, probably UR is inevitable. A 3F-3T with minus GOE (-1) will not give any advantage againt those 3T-3T jumpers (Leonova, Korpi, Makarova, Murakami, Suzuki). Czisny can place high with her strengh in the spins. I think Kostner and Asada are lock for the final flight. Seven skaters will vie for the remaining four spots. That's a tough case for Wagner.
     
  22. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^ I take the opposite view. I think Ashley is building and gaining more confidence. I also think the 2-footing will subside with time as she gets used to her better rotations she's achieved with John Nicks. She has already made strides between Nats and 4CC's
     
  23. Chris_E

    Chris_E Active Member

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    I agree, I think Mr. Nicks is pacing her to peak at Worlds. I'm more worried that there is a month until worlds and a month for her to psych herself out.
     
  24. rosebrallier

    rosebrallier New Member

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    After 4CC, I've become optimistic about the ladies actually getting a third spot. Even against the crazy Russian girls and Kostner, Alissa and Ashley should be able to do it. I've never been much of a Wagner fan myself, but if the judges like her, I say go for gold!
    As for the men, I really really want Jer and Adam to kick butt and there's no doubt in my mind that Jeremy can score high enough to be in the top flight since his SP is well liked by the judges and his LP has potential and solid improvement, but Adam's 4CC performance/scores concern me somewhat.