In which skating disciplines can the US get 3 spots for 2013

Discussion in 'The Trash Can' started by olympic, Jan 30, 2012.

  1. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Now that Nationals is over, I rank it this way -

    1. Ice Dance - should happen barring any out of the ordinary acts of G-d! D/W will get at least Silver and S/S have improved from the GP season and will in a worst - case scenario finish around 6th

    2. Men - 50/50. Abbott and Rippon are probably the best bet the US could ever muster. Abbott's renewal and beautiful skating make him a legitimate medal threat. But, Abbott would have to medal and Rippon would need a top 10 finish. Doable, but not certain. The men are just so deep in talent this quadrennium!

    3. Ladies - 50/50. Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men, but Czisny and Wagner didn't quite bring it the way Abbott and Rippon did at Nats. With Miki and Yu Na out, the way should be clearer but Czisny's hiccups during the season and Wagner still needing a touch more refinement and reputation make it questionable. Alissa could skate par for the course and get around 4th behind Mao, Carolina and Akiko. Then Ashley could get 9th. They probably can do it, but who knows ... predicting ladiezzzz drives me nuts!


    4. Pairs - Probably not. Depth as in the Men's field means D/C and M/B won't do it. M/B needs more exposure as it is.
  2. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    Dance is a given. D/w should be no lower than 2nd and its hard to believe s/s will drop from 3rd to 12th.

    Men's is the likeliest to regain that 3rd spot, but rippon is a total wild card. Can he make top 10 is the big question.

    Ladies is as doomful as ever. Possible, but not all that probable IMO.

    Paris, no way no how. Two new inexperienced teams? Not gonna happen.
  3. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    3 spots is certainly possible in all the US disciplines except pairs. The US pairs need much more finesse than they currently display to guarantee 3 spots.

    Ashley and Alissa need a combination of 6th and 7th, 5th and 8th, 4th and 9th; not impossible for the two of them to do.
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2012
  4. genevieve

    genevieve drinky typo pbp, closet hugger Staff Member

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    Dance - a given

    Men - extremely likely

    Ladiez - "Normally, I'd rank this a better shot than the Men" really? We haven't had 3 ladies' spots in several years. I think it's very doable, but it's been a hard row to hoe for our ladies for quite a while.

    Pairs - :rofl: :rofl: god love'em. (I do hope that MBMB are able to get some decent international experience from this)
  5. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    It's really a disgrace that the Ladies haven't had 3 spots since 2008. What are we Canada?
  6. museksk8r

    museksk8r Holding an edge and looking dangerously sexy

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    Not even close. The US would never consider deciding not to send an age-eligible, healthy National Champion to compete at Worlds.
  7. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Just curious. Why do you think it's 'extremely likely' the US will get 3 spots back for the Men?

    Re ladies, the field is not that deep this year: Yu Na, Lepisto and Miki are out, the Russian babies are not age eligible, the Sr. Russian ladies didn't really do that well at Euros and they are leaving home some of their better talent (Biryukova, Shelepen). Kanako is really up and down, Kiira is also not skating all that hot. It just seems that on paper, Alissa and Ashley should be able to do it. But, my post is cautious due to the freakish events of the past 2 World championships
  8. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Dance- Yes

    Men- Good chance, but both Abbott and Rippon are unpredictable. Abbott has to shoot for a medal which he is capable of but wont attain without skating very well. Rippon can shoot for a top 7 or so. If one or both underperform though, it wont happen.

    Ladies- Average chance. Czisny like Abbott is capable of medaling, but seems less likely than him to rise to that occasion right now. Wagner's chances are about as iffy as Rippon I would say.

    Pairs- No. Just no.
  9. TwizzlerS

    TwizzlerS Well-Known Member

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    ITA with everyone about Dance and Pairs.

    The problem with predicting Men and Ladies is that in the first case, the US team is stronger but so is the field. In the latter, the US team is weaker and so is the field. I'm not sure, but I think kind of levels the playing field. That is, the chances of securing 3 slots next year are about the same for both Men and Ladies.
  10. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    I think the men and ladies are totally in the hands of the U.S skaters though in that if all 4 do what they are capable of, I cant imagine them not getting 3 spots back. If only 1 of 2 in each do, then it is dicey.
  11. moebius

    moebius Well-Known Member

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    Just because a skater hasn't been skating well doesn't mean that they won't do well at Worlds and vice versa.
  12. Jammers

    Jammers Well-Known Member

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    I still can't believe how Mirai and Rachael blew it in 2010. Between the two of them they had only 7 combined after the SP and only had to skate decently in the LP to get 13 or less to get those 3 spots back. It really was inexcusable.
  13. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    I think dance should be a given barring injuries, etc...I don't know about men- but not pairs or ladies.

    But Czisny hasn't been skating well either. That's a MAJOR problem for us because Wagner is probably ~6th at best, and if she has an off-night she could easily be 10th or lower. Czisny OTOH can contend for a medal if she hits.

    I know. And there was tibiagate last year. Sometimes one gets the feeling it's just not meant to be.
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2012
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  14. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    Rachael was never going to skate well enough to give the U.S 3 spots back last year. Sending her to Worlds over Nagasu was a huge mistake, and I say that even seeing how Nagasu has flamed out this season.
  15. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    ^ I think healthy Flatt could have managed 8th. Still, the past is in the past and the present is how Czisny and Wagner are going to do. At least let's see how the latter does at 4CCs...then we might have a better idea.
  16. haribobo

    haribobo Well-Known Member

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    Are Zhangs and Sui/Han going to Worlds? Haven't heard much about them lately....this could have a big effect on the how hard it is for US to get 3 spots.
  17. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    Actually, thinking about Pairs. How many spots does China have? P/T were 3d last year but Zhangs didn't compete. Where did the #2 Chinese team place? Could they only have 2 spots?

    Also, I don't think MT/M are going to Worlds with their 4th at CAN nats, are they? The US teams caught a tiny break there.
  18. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    2. There's a list of multiple spots by country/discipline in the Worlds forum: http://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/showthread.php?t=82018

    Dube/Wolfe are going with Duhamel/Radford.
  19. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    WOW. Didn't realize that China only has 1 spot! :eek: So, only one of P/T or Z/Z is going.
  20. Sylvia

    Sylvia Whee, summer club comps!

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    China has 2 pairs spots, 1 is direct entry.

    P.S. It sure would be nice if this thread stays focused on 2012 Worlds instead of dredging up past Worlds.
  21. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    It will be tough to get 3 spots in pairs, given the quality of the competition.

    Ice dance and men have a very good chance of getting 3 spots, barring a meltdown or an injury.

    If Ashley and Alissa can skate the way they are capable of, we could have a US lady on the podium and the other with a top 10 finish. It may still be borderline, but the ladies could get 3 spots for next year.
  22. Proustable

    Proustable New Member

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    1. Dance - barring withdrawl of D/W or the Shibs.

    2. Men - though I don't agree that it's merely in the hands of the American men - this field is deep and broad.

    3. Ladies - Weaker field, but weaker contenders.

    4. Pairs - no.
  23. topaz

    topaz Well-Known Member

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    I think the US will get three spots in Mens and Ladies.

    In Ladies, the unknowns Korpi, Elena G and Vika Helgensson.

    The medal contenders are Kostner, Asada, Suzuki, Leonova, Czizny and Elene G.

    I think both Alissa and Ashley can score higher than Makarova(which I hate to say this, cuz I really like this girl), Korpi,

    I think Alissa needs to rest her body and recover
    Are the judges going to reward Korpi for 2lutz programs; or are we going to see a SP like a Euros?

    Elena G is starting to come on strong. I think Elena G has a fabulous shot at the podium against Akiko.

    I think Alissa will definitely regroup and will finish 2nd to 6th. I think Ashley can possibly get a bronze(a strong outside chance) by should finish between 5th and 7th.
  24. judgejudy27

    judgejudy27 Well-Known Member

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    The pairs are definitely not strong enough to regain 3 spots IMO. Voloszhar & Trankov, Savchenko & Szolkowy, Kavaguti & Smirnov, both Chinese pairs (whichever 2 end up going), Duhamel & Radford, Barazova & Larionov, and Takahashi Tran, should all finish above both U.S teams. If one was being generous that would leave a probable placing of 9th and 10th, a total of 19, far away from 13. They would need between them 6 placings by either above teams I mentioned, in addition to over anyone else I didnt, to get 13. Not a snowballs chance this year atleast, barring some pre event injury withdrawals.
  25. geod2

    geod2 New Member

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    "Tibiagate" ...... :rofl:
  26. centerstage01

    centerstage01 Well-Known Member

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    Dance - absolutely three spots

    Men - chances are very good for three

    Ladies - doubtful, but anything can happen

    Pairs - HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA :rofl:
  27. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    Dance - As close to a gimme as it gets (knock on wood!)

    Men - Maybe a 50-60 percent chance. Adam's triple axel still isn't that reliable and his quad is virtually nonexistent, so if he goes for it at Worlds he's liable to cough up a lot of points. And Jeremy is no sure thing either. Love him but even if he's "on" he's rarely mistake-free, and it'll be a dogfight. These two give us our best shot, though, I think.

    Ladies - I give it a 40 percent chance, but hopefully the break from competing will give Alissa a chance to regroup, and hopefully Ashley will gain rep and confidence from 4CCs.

    Pairs - Completely outside their reach, but that's ok. I hope M&B in particular have a really strong showing!!!
  28. chipso1

    chipso1 Well-Known Member

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    Dance: 99.9% yes (*knocks on wood*)

    Ladies: 75% yes ...With Ando and Kim out, the field is pretty wide open. Suzuki, Kostner and Asada have to be considered the three medal favorites, but aside from them, no one really stands out. I can see Czisny, Korobeynikova and Wagner rounding out the top 6, with Murakami and Leonova also having good chances.

    Men: 50% yes ...Rippon hasn't broken 220 points internationally yet this season. We'll see how he does at 4CC, but I see him in the 8-12 range at Worlds. That puts an awful lot of pressure on Jeremy to be 5th at worst. Not impossible by any means, but with Chan, Takahashi, Fernandez, Gachinski, Hanyu and Kozuka in the mix, it will be tough.

    Pairs: 0% ...:shuffle: On the "bright" side, I think both D/C and MBMB can be top 10. Here's hoping diva Mary Beth and Rockne :kickass: and nab a 6-8th place spot!
  29. Spareoom

    Spareoom Well-Known Member

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    I want to say that the Ladies have a 25 percent chance of getting the spot, but hey, maybe if we set our sights low, the opposite will happen. :p It seems like the last few years we always said, "THIS year is the year!" and someone had a meltdown. So maybe the secret is for us to give up hope, and then the pressure is off and we can have a pleasant surprise!

    One can dream, right? ;)
  30. RD

    RD Well-Known Member

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    Ek-freaking-xactly man!!

    That's why I've basically given up...all but lost hope...I mean, this year is as good a chance we're gonna get with several major players not a factor, but...Czisny has not been skating well and Wagner isn't really competitive with the world's best as of now.
  31. Domshabfan

    Domshabfan Well-Known Member

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    Ice dance: almost 100%
    Ladies: 50% chance, Alissa is 5th on the SB list among the senior bound athletes and Wagner is 8th..

    Men's: 30 % Abbott is 6th and Rippon is 12ish major meltdown required
    Pairs: 1 % chance, 8th D/C, 13ish M/rockne... top teams are very strong and it is all but impossible for US teams to break into top 6
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  32. love_skate2011

    love_skate2011 Well-Known Member

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    Ice Dance - duh !

    Men - very likely, there are still a lot of talent waiting to have their moment
    and Abbott maybe peaking again.

    Ladies - this one is a headcase scenario, like the current ladies figure skating in general, unpredictable, but I say. YES. Ashley and Alissa will bring it and both will finish above Top 10.

    Pairs - meh. US Pairs is very weak weaker than Canada even.
    maybe 2018 ?
  33. bek

    bek Guest

    I thought Canada has always been stronger than the US in pairs. They've had a couple of world champions, the Olympic Gold tie etc...Nobody has Russia's record (sorry Canadians but even you have to admit that); but Canada has historically been way more successful than us.
  34. query5

    query5 New Member

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    i think defintely dance,
    ladies has a good shot for 3 next year,

    men has to work for it.

    pairs only if they are lucky and both skate good short/longs
  35. Cheylana

    Cheylana Well-Known Member

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    Now that Jerrmy pulled out of 4CCs with a hip injury, I am going to downgrade the likelihood of US men getting three spots from 50-60 percent to about 30-40 percent :fragile:
  36. Lacey

    Lacey Well-Known Member

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    I'm confused, so you think Jeremy might still be injured by Worlds but try to skate and will not skate well? I sort of got the feeling that he is "resting" his hip...

    But I guess it's 100% opinion here that US Pairs are just not good enough. Sad.
  37. Vash01

    Vash01 Well-Known Member

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    Me too, although I did not assign any probability to my predictions.

    Ladies actually may have a better chance of finishing top 12 (total) because the ladies field is relatively weak. If Alissa and Ashley have respectable skates (5th & 6th or 7th place finishes), it's all that is needed. Other than Kostner, I don't see a sure podium bet. Asada and Suzuki are both good enough, but no guarantee if Asada's jumps don't work, and Suzuki will need two strong performances. After that, we have a lot of second tier skaters- Leonova, Makarova, Elene G., Korpii, Helgessons (2), Murakami. Both Ashley and Alissa are capable of beating all the second tier skaters.

    The mens field is strong and I was putting all my eggs in the Jeremy basket. Rippon may have found himself, but I don't see him as a medal contender (Chan, Takahashi, Hanyu, Fernandez, Kozuka, nd a healthy Abbott are likely to finish ahead of him; they all have the quad).He could be 5th or 6th. If Jeremy was healthy, it would be easy to get to 12, but with his hip injury things become muddled. What if he cannot go to worlds at all, then Ross Miner would go. I am looking at 8-10 finish for Ross, and that does not bode well.
  38. olympic

    olympic Well-Known Member

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    ^Don't doom and gloom the US men and Jeremy yet. It sounds minor and he's withdrawing from 4CC's to be safe
  39. Roxanne

    Roxanne New Member

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    Why does everyone think that the men are more likely to get 3 spots back than the ladies?
    Abbott could be top 4 but there is a huge list of people who could beat Rippon: Chan, the 3 Japanese boys, Fernandez, Brezina, Amodio, Song, Verner and maybe Joubert.

    For ladies, we probably need Alissa to medal or get 4th which is possible because she's always overscored.
  40. berthesghost

    berthesghost Well-Known Member

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    it's a total crapfest with all 4 of them, but Ashley has the least natural talent, and worst resume. We have to wait and see. :shuffle: